Championship game line moves
Divisional round gambling reactions and analyzing early title game line moves
By Dave Tuley | ESPN Insider
LAS VEGAS -- The NFL's version of the Final Four on Sunday will feature Denver hosting New England and Seattle hosting San Francisco.
The LVH SuperBook posted its updated Super Bowl futures after Sunday's divisional playoff games with the Seahawks the favorite at 7-4, Broncos at 9-5, 49ers at 3-1 and Patriots at 6-1. It's interesting to note that, if we take the Wayback Machine back to the week before the season started, these were the lowest-priced teams at the LVH: Broncos at 5-1, Seahawks 6-1, 49ers 6-1, Packers 9-1 and Patriots 10-1. After San Francisco beat Green Bay in Week 1, the Packers were bumped out of the top four, and the 49ers and Seahawks have been on a collision course ever since.<!-- begin inline 1 --><!-- INLINE MODULE -->
All four were favored this past weekend, although they were only 2-2 ATS against the ViewFromVegas Consensus Closing Line. As I wrote in my "Tuley's Take" column Thursday, the point spread was more likely to come into play in the divisional playoffs with the spreads being higher (in the wild-card round, when the lines tend to be lower, the 49ers-Packers game was the first time in seven years a SU winner in that round didn't also cover the spread; however, the divisional playoffs had seen the SU winner fail to cover -- which happens when the favorite wins but the 'dog covers -- 20.2 percent of the time since 1990).
That happened with the very first game of the weekend as the Seahawks closed as a 9-point favorite over the Saints and got out to a 16-0 halftime lead but held on for a 23-15 victory. Plenty of people pushed as 8 was the most common point spread in the middle of the week, but we grade against the consensus closing line (as that's after everyone from the oddsmakers, the bookmakers, the wiseguys and the public have all weighed in with their opinions).
The Patriots got out to a 14-0 lead, but the Colts kept battling back, and the game was sitting on the closing spread of 7 with the Pats leading 29-22 early in the fourth quarter until LeGarrette Blount's 73-yard TD run (his fourth of the game) put them over the number. They won and covered 43-22.
On Sunday, the 49ers, a 1.5-point road favorite in Vegas (although it was closer to pick 'em offshore), also covered as they beat the Panthers 23-10 to set up the first conference final matchup.
The last game of the weekend saw the Broncos, who closed as a 9-point favorite over the Chargers, get out to a 14-0 lead even though they squandered a couple of scoring opportunities. The Chargers rallied in the second half and got the back-door cover as the Broncos escaped 24-17.
With favorites/underdogs splitting 2-2 ATS, that makes underdogs still ahead 5-2-1 ATS through the first two rounds of the playoffs. Unders, which were 3-1 in wild-card weekend, went 3-1 again and thus are 6-2 overall.
Let's take a look at what I learned over the weekend from a gambling perspective and at the early championship game line moves. <OFFER></OFFER>
Tuley's Takeaways from divisional weekend
1. It's hard to handicap penalties, but it's worth a try
This could be a whole column on its own. I'm not just talking about the number of penalties each team gets; I'm more interested in the big penalties such as pass interference. For the most part this past weekend, referees were giving defenders a lot of leeway, but it seems more often than not that the favorites were getting more calls in their favor. I don't think it altered the outcome of any game, but let's just say the experienced players/teams seem better at drawing a flag than the less-experienced players/teams. That will mostly be canceled out this weekend with the league's top four teams playing, but one matchup to keep an eye on is the Seahawks' defensive backs (who play with a lot of contact, some called, some not) against the 49ers' receivers. If the refs are flag-happy, it'll be in San Fran's favor; if they "let them play," the Seahawks have an edge as big as their home-field advantage.
2. Speaking of home-field advantage, or lack of such…
The home field hasn't meant much in this year's playoffs. Sure, the Seahawks, Patriots and Broncos all won this past weekend, but the Patriots were the only one to cover the spread, and it didn't help the Panthers as they lost as a home 'dog. Home teams were only 1-2-1 ATS in the wild-card round, so they're 2-5-1 ATS in the playoffs so far. It's not surprising that the conference championship road teams -- Patriots and 49ers -- are getting so much early betting support.
3. Check the betting stats of remaining teams for clues
The 49ers and Saints finished the regular season tied with an NFL-best record of 11-5 ATS. The 49ers, who pushed in their 3-point wild-card win over the Packers (although those who had San Fran minus-2.5 certainly count that as a win), move ahead of the Seahawks with their spread-covering win over the Panthers while the Seahawks failed to cover. However, keep in mind that the Seahawks went 2-0 ATS vs. the 49ers this year as they romped to a 29-3 win as a 3-point home favorite in Week 2 and covered as a 2.5-point underdog despite losing 19-17 at San Fran in Week 14. In the AFC, the Broncos have a better overall ATS record than the Patriots, but again, it was New England covering in the teams' previous meeting, with a 34-31 win as a 2.5-point home favorite in Week 12. As for over/unders, the two NFC teams are both under teams and the two AFC teams are over teams, and that's reflected in the early totals, with the 49ers-Seahawks settling at 39.5 and the Patriots-Broncos at 55. However, the Broncos have stayed under in four straight games, and they won three of those.
<!-- begin inline 2 -->2013 NFL ATS Standings
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Early championship game line moves
Here are the conference championship openers from the LVH. We'll take an in-depth look at where the lines opened here and offshore and how they got bet into place and where they'll likely go the rest of the week.
<!-- begin inline 3 -->Championship LVH Openers
(Home team on bottom)
49ers o/u 41.5
Seahawks -3.5
Patriots o/u 55
Broncos -6.5
<!-- end inline 3 -->49ers at Seahawks minus-3.5: After the 49ers took a 23-10 lead over the Panthers in the fourth quarter Sunday, the offshore book BetOnline was the first to pop up on the Don Best screen, with the Seahawks minus-3 and vig of minus-125. It got bet up to 3.5, and that's where CRIS and Pinnacle opened, although that's when 49ers money showed immediately as they got bet back down to 3.
The LVH was the first in Vegas to put up a line, opting for Seahawks minus-3.5, and it got bet up to 4 before a fast market correction back to 3.5. The rest of Sunday night, the line mostly wavered between 3 and 3.5, with heavier juice on the preferred sides at those numbers. It looks as if that might be the case all week. As for the over/under, the early offshore went with 41 and the LVH went with 41.5, but there has been a steady stream of under money that has driven it down to a consensus 39.5 as of early Monday morning.
Patriots at Broncos minus-6.5: With the Broncos leading 17-0 heading into the fourth quarter Sunday, the offshore books opened the Broncos minus-6.5 for the AFC title game, which was odd to see on the Don Best screen as the teams weren't even listed because the game wasn't officially determined. (Note: If the Chargers had rallied to win, all bets on the NE-DEN game would have been ruled no-action and refunded.)
The MGM was the first to open in Vegas, at minus-6.5 after the Broncos, who had seen their lead cut to 17-7, went back up 24-7. When the Broncos finally disposed of the Chargers, the LVH also opened 6.5, but it took less than 20 minutes for just about all books to be down to Broncos minus-6, and the Patriots money continued to pound the number down to 5.5 and 5. The offshore book 5Dimes was the first to go to 4.5, but, as of Monday morning, the consensus line is looking like Broncos minus-5. Those Patriots plus-6.5 and plus-6 lines might not be seen again, and I think Broncos minus-4.5 will be the lowest we see. The over/under has been far less volatile, as it's been a pretty solid 55 since the openers with just a few stray 54.5s and 55.5s out there.
Happy handicapping, and come back Thursday as I'll have my "Tuley's Take" column looking at the public perception and the wiseguys' view of (as well as my plays for) the NFL conference championship games.
Divisional round gambling reactions and analyzing early title game line moves
By Dave Tuley | ESPN Insider
LAS VEGAS -- The NFL's version of the Final Four on Sunday will feature Denver hosting New England and Seattle hosting San Francisco.
The LVH SuperBook posted its updated Super Bowl futures after Sunday's divisional playoff games with the Seahawks the favorite at 7-4, Broncos at 9-5, 49ers at 3-1 and Patriots at 6-1. It's interesting to note that, if we take the Wayback Machine back to the week before the season started, these were the lowest-priced teams at the LVH: Broncos at 5-1, Seahawks 6-1, 49ers 6-1, Packers 9-1 and Patriots 10-1. After San Francisco beat Green Bay in Week 1, the Packers were bumped out of the top four, and the 49ers and Seahawks have been on a collision course ever since.<!-- begin inline 1 --><!-- INLINE MODULE -->
All four were favored this past weekend, although they were only 2-2 ATS against the ViewFromVegas Consensus Closing Line. As I wrote in my "Tuley's Take" column Thursday, the point spread was more likely to come into play in the divisional playoffs with the spreads being higher (in the wild-card round, when the lines tend to be lower, the 49ers-Packers game was the first time in seven years a SU winner in that round didn't also cover the spread; however, the divisional playoffs had seen the SU winner fail to cover -- which happens when the favorite wins but the 'dog covers -- 20.2 percent of the time since 1990).
That happened with the very first game of the weekend as the Seahawks closed as a 9-point favorite over the Saints and got out to a 16-0 halftime lead but held on for a 23-15 victory. Plenty of people pushed as 8 was the most common point spread in the middle of the week, but we grade against the consensus closing line (as that's after everyone from the oddsmakers, the bookmakers, the wiseguys and the public have all weighed in with their opinions).
The Patriots got out to a 14-0 lead, but the Colts kept battling back, and the game was sitting on the closing spread of 7 with the Pats leading 29-22 early in the fourth quarter until LeGarrette Blount's 73-yard TD run (his fourth of the game) put them over the number. They won and covered 43-22.
On Sunday, the 49ers, a 1.5-point road favorite in Vegas (although it was closer to pick 'em offshore), also covered as they beat the Panthers 23-10 to set up the first conference final matchup.
The last game of the weekend saw the Broncos, who closed as a 9-point favorite over the Chargers, get out to a 14-0 lead even though they squandered a couple of scoring opportunities. The Chargers rallied in the second half and got the back-door cover as the Broncos escaped 24-17.
With favorites/underdogs splitting 2-2 ATS, that makes underdogs still ahead 5-2-1 ATS through the first two rounds of the playoffs. Unders, which were 3-1 in wild-card weekend, went 3-1 again and thus are 6-2 overall.
Let's take a look at what I learned over the weekend from a gambling perspective and at the early championship game line moves. <OFFER></OFFER>
Tuley's Takeaways from divisional weekend
1. It's hard to handicap penalties, but it's worth a try
This could be a whole column on its own. I'm not just talking about the number of penalties each team gets; I'm more interested in the big penalties such as pass interference. For the most part this past weekend, referees were giving defenders a lot of leeway, but it seems more often than not that the favorites were getting more calls in their favor. I don't think it altered the outcome of any game, but let's just say the experienced players/teams seem better at drawing a flag than the less-experienced players/teams. That will mostly be canceled out this weekend with the league's top four teams playing, but one matchup to keep an eye on is the Seahawks' defensive backs (who play with a lot of contact, some called, some not) against the 49ers' receivers. If the refs are flag-happy, it'll be in San Fran's favor; if they "let them play," the Seahawks have an edge as big as their home-field advantage.
2. Speaking of home-field advantage, or lack of such…
The home field hasn't meant much in this year's playoffs. Sure, the Seahawks, Patriots and Broncos all won this past weekend, but the Patriots were the only one to cover the spread, and it didn't help the Panthers as they lost as a home 'dog. Home teams were only 1-2-1 ATS in the wild-card round, so they're 2-5-1 ATS in the playoffs so far. It's not surprising that the conference championship road teams -- Patriots and 49ers -- are getting so much early betting support.
3. Check the betting stats of remaining teams for clues
The 49ers and Saints finished the regular season tied with an NFL-best record of 11-5 ATS. The 49ers, who pushed in their 3-point wild-card win over the Packers (although those who had San Fran minus-2.5 certainly count that as a win), move ahead of the Seahawks with their spread-covering win over the Panthers while the Seahawks failed to cover. However, keep in mind that the Seahawks went 2-0 ATS vs. the 49ers this year as they romped to a 29-3 win as a 3-point home favorite in Week 2 and covered as a 2.5-point underdog despite losing 19-17 at San Fran in Week 14. In the AFC, the Broncos have a better overall ATS record than the Patriots, but again, it was New England covering in the teams' previous meeting, with a 34-31 win as a 2.5-point home favorite in Week 12. As for over/unders, the two NFC teams are both under teams and the two AFC teams are over teams, and that's reflected in the early totals, with the 49ers-Seahawks settling at 39.5 and the Patriots-Broncos at 55. However, the Broncos have stayed under in four straight games, and they won three of those.
<!-- begin inline 2 -->2013 NFL ATS Standings
| Team | ATS | Streak | O/U | Streak |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Courtesy ViewFromVegas.com. All records based on VFV consensus closing lines; teams listed by ATS winning percentage, with first tiebreaker being straight-up record, then ATS streak; O=over, U=under, P=push | ||||
| San Francisco 49ers (14-4) | 12-5-1 | W1 | 8-10 | U2 |
| Seattle Seahawks (14-3) | 11-6 | L1 | 6-11 | U6 |
| Denver Broncos (14-3) | 10-7 | L1 | 11-6 | U4 |
| New England Patriots (13-4) | 9-8 | W3 | 10-7 | O3 |
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Early championship game line moves
Here are the conference championship openers from the LVH. We'll take an in-depth look at where the lines opened here and offshore and how they got bet into place and where they'll likely go the rest of the week.
<!-- begin inline 3 -->Championship LVH Openers
(Home team on bottom)
49ers o/u 41.5
Seahawks -3.5
Patriots o/u 55
Broncos -6.5
<!-- end inline 3 -->49ers at Seahawks minus-3.5: After the 49ers took a 23-10 lead over the Panthers in the fourth quarter Sunday, the offshore book BetOnline was the first to pop up on the Don Best screen, with the Seahawks minus-3 and vig of minus-125. It got bet up to 3.5, and that's where CRIS and Pinnacle opened, although that's when 49ers money showed immediately as they got bet back down to 3.
The LVH was the first in Vegas to put up a line, opting for Seahawks minus-3.5, and it got bet up to 4 before a fast market correction back to 3.5. The rest of Sunday night, the line mostly wavered between 3 and 3.5, with heavier juice on the preferred sides at those numbers. It looks as if that might be the case all week. As for the over/under, the early offshore went with 41 and the LVH went with 41.5, but there has been a steady stream of under money that has driven it down to a consensus 39.5 as of early Monday morning.
Patriots at Broncos minus-6.5: With the Broncos leading 17-0 heading into the fourth quarter Sunday, the offshore books opened the Broncos minus-6.5 for the AFC title game, which was odd to see on the Don Best screen as the teams weren't even listed because the game wasn't officially determined. (Note: If the Chargers had rallied to win, all bets on the NE-DEN game would have been ruled no-action and refunded.)
The MGM was the first to open in Vegas, at minus-6.5 after the Broncos, who had seen their lead cut to 17-7, went back up 24-7. When the Broncos finally disposed of the Chargers, the LVH also opened 6.5, but it took less than 20 minutes for just about all books to be down to Broncos minus-6, and the Patriots money continued to pound the number down to 5.5 and 5. The offshore book 5Dimes was the first to go to 4.5, but, as of Monday morning, the consensus line is looking like Broncos minus-5. Those Patriots plus-6.5 and plus-6 lines might not be seen again, and I think Broncos minus-4.5 will be the lowest we see. The over/under has been far less volatile, as it's been a pretty solid 55 since the openers with just a few stray 54.5s and 55.5s out there.
Happy handicapping, and come back Thursday as I'll have my "Tuley's Take" column looking at the public perception and the wiseguys' view of (as well as my plays for) the NFL conference championship games.
