Favorites have an innate advantage when betting college basketball

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JustinCruise

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Because of the absurd late game fouling.

Obviously this doesn't apply to 17-25 point favorites. But for moderate favs, there is a clear advantage because teams will foul down 7 with 20 seconds left etc
 
CHOPTALK

CHOPTALK

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Lol
 

Bruins4Life

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Can't recall the game, but had it happen last year. I was giving 9 or so points. With less than a minute left, I was up 4. My team won by 10, hitting 6 straight free throws, while the opponent missed shot after shot, and continued to foul.
 

JustinCruise

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Bruins4Life said:
Can't recall the game, but had it happen last year. I was giving 9 or so points. With less than a minute left, I was up 4. My team won by 10, hitting 6 straight free throws, while the opponent missed shot after shot, and continued to foul.
Click to expand...

yea the fouling can get ridiculous. I know I have seen many teams foul down double digits with under a minute left
 
ScottL

ScottL

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What about Min-Mich St just the other day? Mich St misses 2 FTs to force OT, laying 10.5-11. Then in the OT they go 13-14 from the Line.
But these idiots from MIN just won't stop. Miss down 9 with .27 left, FOUL! Miss down 11 with .12 left, AGAIN THEY FOUL - WHY!!!!
 

JustinCruise

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Scott L said:
What about Min-Mich St just the other day? Mich St misses 2 FTs to force OT, laying 10.5-11. Then in the OT they go 13-14 from the Line.
But these idiots from MIN just won't stop. Miss down 9 with .27 left, FOUL! Miss down 11 with .12 left, AGAIN THEY FOUL - WHY!!!!
Click to expand...


my point exactly
 

bigtendominator

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Thanks for this info, glad the bookmakers haven't thought about this. Now, should we bump the "THIS IS IU" thread?
 
CHOPTALK

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If the line is -7 on the favorite and the favorite wins by 8 the people who bet on the favorite at -7 has an innate advantage over the people who took the dog at +7.
Obviously this does not apply to favorites that are favored by 7 points or more when they only win by 6. In that case the people who took the dog at +7 have the innate advantage.

And this applies to both college and the NBA and even football to.
 
DNoonan

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can't it work both ways though? what about the easy buckets a team that is down 10 gets in the last min plus when the other team is just trying not to foul...those can hurt you when you have a favorite, especially in college when more FT's are missed
 

BranFlakes

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IU line very fishy to me. Facts and history show Obvious Wisconsin cover, so why open at Wiscy minus 2? I bit on Indiana at plus 4.
 
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