2013 RB Review & Early 2014 Rankings

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2013 RB review, early 2014 rankings
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Let's face the facts: The 2013 fantasy football season was mostly a mess for running backs. Oh sure, a few runners who were relied upon as first-round draft picks performed to the level that was expected of them, but just as many top-10 choices flamed out because of injury or simply poor performance. Fantasy owners were on constant lookout for running backs on their free-agent wire, realizing early on that it was a struggle to fill even the starting slots at the scarce position, let alone put a running back at the flex spot. Alas, we made it through the season, and now it's time, as with quarterbacks a week ago, to review the position while also looking ahead to the future. May it be much brighter!

Running back MVP: This honor seemed to be at least somewhat of a competition entering December, as Kansas City Chiefs star Jamaal Charles was battling Denver Broncos surprise Knowshon Moreno. One of them was a top-10 pick in all leagues, while the other was mainly a waiver-wire pickup. Then Charles unloaded 51 standard fantasy points on the beleaguered Oakland Raiders in Week 15 and the drama ended. Charles finished the season with a position-leading 295 standard points, 33 more than Philadelphia Eagles star LeSean McCoy, and Charles didn't even need to suit up in Week 17. He was the lone running back to get more than 100 targets, and he tied for the lead in rushing touchdowns and led the position in receiving scores while approaching 2,000 yards from scrimmage.

<OFFER>Running back Least Valuable Player (LVP): Well, how much time you got? Honestly, while Charles, Moreno and McCoy comprise the top choices for MVP, the list of colossal disappointments at this critical position is certainly much longer. Then again, as noted, it was a terrible year for running backs. Colleague Tristan H. Cockcroft noted recently that every position saw an increase in overall production, except, of course, this one. Anyway, rule out the Houston Texans' Arian Foster and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers' Doug Martin for the "dishonor" of LVP. The Nos. 2 and 5 picks, respectively, in ESPN live drafts were useful when active, but they combined to play only 13 games, leaving fantasy owners no option of future production. You were forced to move on, which was a good thing compared to the next few guys.

The Baltimore Ravens' Ray Rice and the Cleveland Browns'/Indianapolis Colts' Trent Richardson, however, remained active and yet unhelpful, angering many an owner. Prior to his sophomore season, Richardson was a top-10 fantasy pick. He started slowly, and then was dealt to Indy, which seemed to make his fantasy value skyrocket. That's a playoff team with a real quarterback! But how many times have you seen a top-10 fantasy pick dealt before October in real life? Few figured at the time the Browns knew what they were doing, but in retrospect, they apparently did. Richardson scored 99 standard fantasy points for the entire season, worse than 33 other running backs. However, Richardson was so terrible his owners couldn't have remained optimistic better days were ahead. Why did this happen? He's not old. He doesn't have too many proverbial miles on the tires. Rice is a different story. Coming off four consecutive seasons of top-10 work, few thought he'd hit the proverbial wall at age 26. He was chosen earlier in drafts than Richardson and somehow scored only eight more standard points; he wasn't traded, wasn't hurt, it wasn't because of backup Bernard Pierce, yet he produced two big games prior to Thanksgiving and little more, teasing his owners into trusting him. Rice wasn't nearly as awful for PPR formats, but in standard leagues, he gets the nod here over Richardson.

[h=4]My (early) top 50 RBs for 2014[/h]First tier (Round 1)
1. Jamaal Charles, Chiefs
2. LeSean McCoy, Eagles
3. Adrian Peterson, Vikings
4. Matt Forte, Bears
5. Marshawn Lynch, Seahawks

Second tier (Rounds 1 and 2)
6. Eddie Lacy, Packers
7. Arian Foster, Texans
8. Doug Martin, Buccaneers
9. Reggie Bush, Lions
10. Alfred Morris, Redskins

Third tier (Rounds 2 and 3)
11. Zac Stacy, Rams
12. Le'Veon Bell, Steelers
13. DeMarco Murray, Cowboys
14. Knowshon Moreno, Broncos

Fourth tier (Round 3)
15. Chris Johnson, Titans
16. Frank Gore, 49ers
17. Giovani Bernard, Bengals

Fifth tier (Rounds 3 and 4)
18. Ray Rice, Ravens
19. Ryan Mathews, Chargers
20. Shane Vereen, Patriots
21. Stevan Ridley, Patriots
22. Steven Jackson, Falcons

Sixth tier (Round 5)
23. Ben Tate, Texans
24. C.J. Spiller, Bills
25. Fred Jackson, Bills

Seventh tier (Round 6 and beyond)
26. Trent Richardson, Colts
27. Andre Ellington, Cardinals
28. Lamar Miller, Dolphins
29. Maurice Jones-Drew, Jaguars
30. Montee Ball, Broncos
31. Danny Woodhead, Chargers
32. Donald Brown, Colts
33. Andre Brown, Giants
34. Darren Sproles, Saints
35. BenJarvus Green-Ellis, Bengals
36. Rashard Mendenhall, Cardinals
37. Darren McFadden, Raiders
38. Pierre Thomas, Saints
39. DeAngelo Williams, Panthers
40. Chris Ivory, Jets
41. Rashad Jennings, Raiders
42. Toby Gerhart, Vikings
43. Joique Bell, Lions
44. Shonn Greene, Titans
45. Jordan Todman, Jaguars
46. Latavius Murray, Raiders
47. Mark Ingram, Saints
48. Knile Davis, Chiefs
49. Christine Michael, Seahawks
50. Marcus Lattimore, 49ers




Biggest surprise: Broncos rookie Montee Ball was the 59th player chosen in ESPN ADP, top-25 at the position. Moreno was pick No. 130 overall, if chosen at all, after future Hall of Famers (OK, not really) Isaac Redman, Isaiah Pead and Bryce Brown at running back. If you drafted Moreno, you get our hearty congratulations. Despite years of injury and underachievement, Moreno won the starting role out of the preseason, perhaps because he was the best equipped backfield option to block effectively -- was he the only one? -- for quarterback Peyton Manning. Then Moreno scored 22 standard fantasy points in Week 2 and kept on going. His first half was more productive than his second, and he didn't help much in December, but Moreno finished as fantasy's No. 5 running back. Nobody came close to delivering similar value from a low draft position.

Biggest misconception: With several rookies producing like veterans, most notably the Green Bay Packers' Eddie Lacy and the Pittsburgh Steelers' Le'Veon Bell, fantasy owners wanted to see considerably more of a few other smaller-in-stature first-year players, but their respective coaches did not agree. The Cincinnati Bengals never did give Giovani Bernard 15 rushing attempts in a game after Week 6, while the Arizona Cardinals treated Andre Ellington similarly. Fantasy owners complained and complained about this, but that's the misconception! Not only do coaches not care what fantasy owners think, but they often read a situation much differently than many onlookers.

Bernard still ended up as a top-20 running back (standard scoring) and close to the top 10 in PPR formats, but he never emerged as the star fantasy option many expected/hoped for. The guy is 5-foot-9, though, and those expecting the next Ray Rice -- the good version of Rice, anyway -- in 2014 likely will be disappointed. The Bengals don't seem ready to give Bernard 300 touches, not when fellow back BenJarvus Green-Ellis remains, believe it or not, relatively productive. Ellington, meanwhile, exploded for a position-leading 21 standard points in Week 8, becoming everyone's immediate must-add … and then the Cards went right back to plodding Rashard Mendenhall in the timeshare. Both backs finished with 115 standard points. Modestly productive duos are tough to find, and when a coach finds one, he tends to stick with it.

Youngster to watch: The most appealing names who haven't received a true chance yet are currently backups for established stars who don't seem to be departing anytime soon. The Chiefs' Knile Davis, for example, was one of three running backs to score 20 standard points in Week 17, but he did so when Charles was sitting out, and there's little reason to expect Charles to keep sitting out, whether because of injury or Richardson-like struggling, in 2014. Same with Christine Michael of the Seattle Seahawks; Marshawn Lynch is worked hard and has a ton of mileage on those energetic tires, but he's not done yet. Frank Gore in San Francisco, however, already has hit that magic age of 30 years old, and running backs tend to fall apart at that age. Gore, one of only two 30-something running backs to top 130 standard fantasy points this past season (the Buffalo Bills' Fred Jackson was the other), can be a free agent after the 2014 season, and Marcus Lattimore, the South Carolina star who missed all of his rookie campaign with a shredded knee, is waiting in the wings. Lattimore reportedly will be ready to go, so don't be surprised if the 49ers try to establish him in 2014. Lattimore can play, and if you remember what Willis McGahee did to a knee in college, you know he recovered and, this season notwithstanding, certainly aided fantasy owners in his prime.

Veteran to watch: Several pending free agents will be looking for new teams that promise them starting roles, notably the Texans' Ben Tate and the Vikings' Toby Gerhart. In addition, other running backs will be let go at some point and perhaps find better places for them. The Giants, for example, really can't rely on David Wilson with his neck problems, can they? Tate could be a fit. He was presented opportunity this past season when Foster was injured, but Tate suffered broken ribs in a game and was underwhelming, ultimately being shut down after Week 15. There's concern about Tate's production and health, frankly, but if he signs with the Raiders and is promised 250-plus touches, we can't ignore that. With Gerhart, playing behind Adrian Peterson has been a lonely predicament. Gerhart's last period of fantasy relevance was late in 2011. He did, however, average 7.9 yards per carry this season, though on only 36 attempts. Let's see where he signs and what the situation is, and same goes for other players who could be on the move, including Maurice Jones-Drew and perhaps the overrated and expensive Chris Johnson.

Keeper notes: There's no shortage of relevant quarterbacks and wide receivers, so yeah, even though the running back spot can drive a fantasy owner crazy, you might have to consider the likes of the Miami Dolphins' Lamar Miller and the Broncos' Ball as potential keepers. Miller is young enough to emerge as a reliable RB2 option … or he could also be out of the sport in two years. We just don't know. Most expect Ball to cut into Moreno's touches in 2014, but why? Moreno was really good, and he's not expensive, at least based on the market. Ball had his moments, and his future remains bright, but he might need to wait another year. That said, these guys are actually worth keeping, along with at least 30 others who play the running back spot.

What to watch for in 2014 drafts: Go ahead and choose Peyton Manning or Drew Brees in the first round, or Calvin Johnson, Josh Gordon and Jimmy Graham. There are myriad ways to win and lose a fantasy league, and I'd never say you're going to lose if you ignore running back with your first selection. However, I do believe that what happened in the first round this season to half the running backs is an anomaly. I'm still likely to take a running back in Round 1. That's my top 10: running backs, with Calvin Johnson near the back. Half my second-round options play the running back position as well. There's just too much depth elsewhere, and while Miller and Ball could be terrific, I don't want them as my RB1 options. And you'll see a few of the running backs who didn't even make it to November are back in my top 10. Some might swear off ever choosing someone like Tampa Bay's Martin again, but that's a mistake. Hopefully we'll look back on 2013 with a smirk and a giggle, remembering how unlikely it was for half the top-10 running backs to flame out, and we can all go back to safely relying on the position at flex as well!

[h=3]Five noteworthy RB stats of 2013[/h]1. Philly's McCoy was the lone running back to rush for more than 1,400 yards during the 2013 season. That's it, one guy, just as in 2011, when Maurice Jones-Drew was the only one. In 2010, Foster and Charles were the only ones. However, six running backs topped 1,400 rushing yards in 2012, reminding us just how extraordinary that season was … but we shouldn't expect a repeat.

2. Lynch and Charles paced the running back position with 12 rushing touchdowns. The last time nary an NFL running back reached 13 rushing touchdowns in a season was way back in 1993, when Marcus Allen was in his first season with Kansas City. Similarly, McCoy's 314 rushing attempts were the lowest to lead the NFL since Earnest Byner in 1990.

3. Charles scored four receiving touchdowns in Week 15 alone. The only other running backs to score four receiving touchdowns for the season were the Chargers' Danny Woodhead (6) and the Tennessee Titans' Chris Johnson (4). McCoy, Forte and Lynch, the Nos. 2, 3 and 4 running backs in terms of standard scoring, combined for seven receiving touchdowns, matching Charles' season total.

4. Naturally, not all running backs thrive in the passing game. Washington's Alfred Morris caught nine passes all season on 12 targets despite the organization's promise to get him more involved. Charles caught eight passes in Week 15 alone. Other running backs among the top 50 in standard season scoring who didn't catch eight passes all season include LeGarrette Blount, Green-Ellis and Chris Ivory. They combined for eight! Know your scoring system, and while Morris still comes recommended for 2014, that's not the case in a PPR format.

5. Peterson, Moreno, Forte and McCoy each led the position in scoring two separate weeks this season. Nobody led in three. Charles boasted the performance of the season when he torched the Raiders for 51 standard points in Week 15; only five other running backs even reached 30 points in a game, and while three of them were no surprise (Forte, McCoy, Lynch), the other two were Bobby Rainey (Week 11) and Blount (Week 17).

Coming soon: the reviews and ranks for wide receivers and tight ends. Best of luck in your playoff pools!
 

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