[h=1]Keys to Kaepernick versus Wilson[/h][h=3]Which quarterback will have the edge in Sunday's NFC Championship Game?[/h]By Ron Jaworski | ESPN Insider
On Sunday, fans of the National Football League are in for a treat. Not only will the NFC Championship Game feature the two strongest teams in the conference this season, but it will showcase two of the sport's most talented young quarterbacks -- the 49ers' Colin Kaepernick and the Seahawks' Russell Wilson.
What's interesting about the matchup is that both quarterbacks have trended in opposite directions as the season has progressed. Kaepernick scuffled out of the gate, while Wilson came out strong. But as the regular season waned, the tables seem to have turned. Now it's Kaepernick who appears to be peaking at the right time, while Wilson has struggled.
Will those recent trends continue when it matters most on Sunday? I broke down the film to see what's going on with both QBs in recent games and what sort of impact that will have on the game plans for Sunday.
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[h=3]The trend[/h]
Kaepernick
The uptick in performance for Kaepernick features a few aspects. The first is a big one: protecting the football. From Weeks 12-17, Kaepernick threw 10 touchdowns to just one interception. That's how you win football games. Prior to that, he threw seven picks in just 212 attempts from Weeks 2-11 (nine games plus the bye week).
Lately I've seen more confidence from Kaepernick, more swagger. A big part of that has been the benefit of getting his receivers back to full health and, to me, there has been a clear relationship between Kaepernick's improved play and the return of WR Michael Crabtree.
Crabtree's presence has opened up the passing game for TE Vernon Davis (who has also gotten healthier) and WR Anquan Boldin. Suddenly there's more space to work with downfield, as defenses have to respect Crabtree's ability to take the top off the coverage. Part of the reason I've always liked Kaepernick is because he has the arm talent to make every throw, especially the deep strike down the field. But with Crabtree banged up, the Niners had no substitute to stretch the field. Now they do and it's paying dividends.
Another reason the Niners struggled to throw the ball earlier in the season had to do with one of Kaepernick's limitations as a young passer: He still struggles to work his progressions. When his No. 1 receiver is covered -- and when Crabtree was out, the No. 1 was often double-covered -- Kaepernick struggled to adjust and often would break from the pocket to try to take advantage of his speed.
That approach really didn't work in two meetings with the Seahawks (the teams split the season series). In those two games combined, he completed just 49 percent of his passes and threw four interceptions, and in the second game he managed just 31 rushing yards on nine carries. To beat the Seahawks on Sunday, in Seattle, Kaepernick has to do better than that. Fortunately for him, with Crabtree back, there have been far more instances when his No. 1 has been able to create separation or uncover, which has made the Niners' offense much more effective.
Wilson
While the Niners have seen their receiving corps get healthy, the Seahawks have watched theirs dwindle. Sidney Rice is done for the year after tearing his ACL at the end of October, and Percy Harvin may miss this game after a concussion sustained against the Saints. Absent both of them -- Harvin will have to clear the league's concussion protocols before he can suit up again -- the Seahawks' passing game boasts few threats.
Golden Tate and Doug Baldwin are both good receivers. But no defense is going to stress too much accounting for them in coverage. The same goes for Jermaine Kearse. What scares defenses is speed, and outside of Harvin, there's no one Seattle can put on the field Sunday who has the speed to really threaten the Niners' defense. And those limitations have been hurting Wilson in recent weeks.
The stats tell a pretty compelling story for Wilson, who hasn't posted a Total QBR score above 50 since the Seahawks' Week 13 beatdown of the Saints. Most compelling is his lack of success on third down. Since that Dec. 2 game against New Orleans, he's completed just 22 of 47 third-down throws, with only 15 of those completions going for a first down.
When I look at Wilson on film, I don't see anything mechanically wrong, but I do see a QB in a slump. When Wilson is at his best, he's poised and confident, even when he's flushed from the pocket as he often was earlier in the season. Lately he looks a little more unbalanced, and it's manifested in some inconsistent accuracy. (And yes, I'll absolutely take into account the awful weather in Seattle in the Seahawks' first-round win Saturday, but it was noticeable before the playoffs, as well.) And those misses stand out all the more when he's attempting about 25 throws per game. Even without Harvin and Rice, we know this offense can generate a timely big play or two, and I think Wilson is going to have to hit on a few of them to prevail Sunday.
Now, let's see how they'll try to make that happen.
[h=3]Sunday strategies[/h]
Seahawks' approach
When I look at these defenses, I see very similar defensive fronts, and both could hold the title of best in the NFL. But the Niners' secondary has far more cracks than the Seahawks', and that's what I think Wilson & Co. will try to exploit when given the opportunity.
In order for Wilson to exploit the San Francisco secondary, his line is going to have to buy him some time against 49ers LB Aldon Smith and a potent pass rush. That hasn't exactly been Seattle's strong suit this season, so I'd expect to see a lot of max-protect formations as Wilson tries to work downfield.
We all know Seattle's offense will run through RB Marshawn Lynch, but I don't know if he can carry the entirety of the offense against a defensive front as potent as the Niners'. I don't think Lynch needs to dominate in "Beast Mode" in order to get Seattle a win, but he does need to be effective enough to draw the attention of the San Francisco safeties. If Lynch can bring the safeties toward the line, we should see a few opportunities for Seattle to get some good deep looks off play-action. When those opportunities arise, Wilson has to deliver.
49ers' approach
As I mentioned earlier, Kaepernick is still developing his progression game, and I expect the Niners to try to help him as much as possible in that regard. For starters, I expect to see a lot of closed formations on the right side, which is the side occupied by stellar Seattle CB Richard Sherman. Whoever Sherman marks, you can pretty much cross that receiver off as an option.
Instead, I expect we'll see both Boldin and Davis lined up at times in the slot to the left side of the formation. Earl Thomas and Kam Chancellor are the best safety tandem in the league, but I'd still prefer that matchup over Sherman.
These two teams have been built practically as mirror images of each another. Both will want to pound the ball on the ground, but I think the winner will be the team whose quarterback can hit on a few big plays downfield. In a game of ball control and clock management, one or two deep strikes can go a long way.
On Sunday, fans of the National Football League are in for a treat. Not only will the NFC Championship Game feature the two strongest teams in the conference this season, but it will showcase two of the sport's most talented young quarterbacks -- the 49ers' Colin Kaepernick and the Seahawks' Russell Wilson.
What's interesting about the matchup is that both quarterbacks have trended in opposite directions as the season has progressed. Kaepernick scuffled out of the gate, while Wilson came out strong. But as the regular season waned, the tables seem to have turned. Now it's Kaepernick who appears to be peaking at the right time, while Wilson has struggled.
Will those recent trends continue when it matters most on Sunday? I broke down the film to see what's going on with both QBs in recent games and what sort of impact that will have on the game plans for Sunday.
<OFFER></OFFER>
[h=3]The trend[/h]
Kaepernick
The uptick in performance for Kaepernick features a few aspects. The first is a big one: protecting the football. From Weeks 12-17, Kaepernick threw 10 touchdowns to just one interception. That's how you win football games. Prior to that, he threw seven picks in just 212 attempts from Weeks 2-11 (nine games plus the bye week).
Lately I've seen more confidence from Kaepernick, more swagger. A big part of that has been the benefit of getting his receivers back to full health and, to me, there has been a clear relationship between Kaepernick's improved play and the return of WR Michael Crabtree.
Crabtree's presence has opened up the passing game for TE Vernon Davis (who has also gotten healthier) and WR Anquan Boldin. Suddenly there's more space to work with downfield, as defenses have to respect Crabtree's ability to take the top off the coverage. Part of the reason I've always liked Kaepernick is because he has the arm talent to make every throw, especially the deep strike down the field. But with Crabtree banged up, the Niners had no substitute to stretch the field. Now they do and it's paying dividends.
Another reason the Niners struggled to throw the ball earlier in the season had to do with one of Kaepernick's limitations as a young passer: He still struggles to work his progressions. When his No. 1 receiver is covered -- and when Crabtree was out, the No. 1 was often double-covered -- Kaepernick struggled to adjust and often would break from the pocket to try to take advantage of his speed.
That approach really didn't work in two meetings with the Seahawks (the teams split the season series). In those two games combined, he completed just 49 percent of his passes and threw four interceptions, and in the second game he managed just 31 rushing yards on nine carries. To beat the Seahawks on Sunday, in Seattle, Kaepernick has to do better than that. Fortunately for him, with Crabtree back, there have been far more instances when his No. 1 has been able to create separation or uncover, which has made the Niners' offense much more effective.
Wilson
While the Niners have seen their receiving corps get healthy, the Seahawks have watched theirs dwindle. Sidney Rice is done for the year after tearing his ACL at the end of October, and Percy Harvin may miss this game after a concussion sustained against the Saints. Absent both of them -- Harvin will have to clear the league's concussion protocols before he can suit up again -- the Seahawks' passing game boasts few threats.
Golden Tate and Doug Baldwin are both good receivers. But no defense is going to stress too much accounting for them in coverage. The same goes for Jermaine Kearse. What scares defenses is speed, and outside of Harvin, there's no one Seattle can put on the field Sunday who has the speed to really threaten the Niners' defense. And those limitations have been hurting Wilson in recent weeks.
The stats tell a pretty compelling story for Wilson, who hasn't posted a Total QBR score above 50 since the Seahawks' Week 13 beatdown of the Saints. Most compelling is his lack of success on third down. Since that Dec. 2 game against New Orleans, he's completed just 22 of 47 third-down throws, with only 15 of those completions going for a first down.
When I look at Wilson on film, I don't see anything mechanically wrong, but I do see a QB in a slump. When Wilson is at his best, he's poised and confident, even when he's flushed from the pocket as he often was earlier in the season. Lately he looks a little more unbalanced, and it's manifested in some inconsistent accuracy. (And yes, I'll absolutely take into account the awful weather in Seattle in the Seahawks' first-round win Saturday, but it was noticeable before the playoffs, as well.) And those misses stand out all the more when he's attempting about 25 throws per game. Even without Harvin and Rice, we know this offense can generate a timely big play or two, and I think Wilson is going to have to hit on a few of them to prevail Sunday.
Now, let's see how they'll try to make that happen.
[h=3]Sunday strategies[/h]
Seahawks' approach
When I look at these defenses, I see very similar defensive fronts, and both could hold the title of best in the NFL. But the Niners' secondary has far more cracks than the Seahawks', and that's what I think Wilson & Co. will try to exploit when given the opportunity.
In order for Wilson to exploit the San Francisco secondary, his line is going to have to buy him some time against 49ers LB Aldon Smith and a potent pass rush. That hasn't exactly been Seattle's strong suit this season, so I'd expect to see a lot of max-protect formations as Wilson tries to work downfield.
We all know Seattle's offense will run through RB Marshawn Lynch, but I don't know if he can carry the entirety of the offense against a defensive front as potent as the Niners'. I don't think Lynch needs to dominate in "Beast Mode" in order to get Seattle a win, but he does need to be effective enough to draw the attention of the San Francisco safeties. If Lynch can bring the safeties toward the line, we should see a few opportunities for Seattle to get some good deep looks off play-action. When those opportunities arise, Wilson has to deliver.
49ers' approach
As I mentioned earlier, Kaepernick is still developing his progression game, and I expect the Niners to try to help him as much as possible in that regard. For starters, I expect to see a lot of closed formations on the right side, which is the side occupied by stellar Seattle CB Richard Sherman. Whoever Sherman marks, you can pretty much cross that receiver off as an option.
Instead, I expect we'll see both Boldin and Davis lined up at times in the slot to the left side of the formation. Earl Thomas and Kam Chancellor are the best safety tandem in the league, but I'd still prefer that matchup over Sherman.
These two teams have been built practically as mirror images of each another. Both will want to pound the ball on the ground, but I think the winner will be the team whose quarterback can hit on a few big plays downfield. In a game of ball control and clock management, one or two deep strikes can go a long way.
