[h=1]I have no opinion on this article & simply posting for others to read who don't have Insider.
Why 49ers are Super Bowl favorites[/h][h=3]San Francisco's overall strengths make it 'matchup-proof'[/h]By KC Joyner | ESPN Insider
The ability to adapt effectively to a variety of matchup strengths is always a plus in the NFL playoffs, but given the eclectic state of the current crop of Super Bowl contenders, that trait may be more useful than ever. Each of the four remaining teams has a different combination of powerful traits that make them difficult to game plan for, and the eventual Super Bowl winner is going to have to find a way to effectively deal with this.
Jim Harbaugh's San Francisco 49ers might not look at first glance like the leading remaining team in the area of adaptability, but the metrics and game-tape analysis indicate this group is by far the best equipped to successfully adjust its approach to whatever type of personnel challenge comes its way. This is the type of edge that makes the 49ers the favorites to win Super Bowl XLVIII.
This advantage shows up in San Francisco's superb balance across the statistical spectrum and when looking at each potential matchup battle they may have to deal with on their potential Super Bowl path.
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Stopping the power rushing game is a key to beating either the Seattle Seahawks or the New England Patriots, and the 49ers are well-equipped in this area. From Week 7 through the end of the regular season, San Francisco allowed an opponent to gain 100 or more yards on the ground only three times. According to ESPN Stats & Information, in that same time frame only two teams (Arizona and Detroit) allowed fewer rush yards per game than the 49ers (85.8).
One key here is San Francisco has allowed 6.1 good blocking yards per attempt (GBYPA), a metric that gauges how productive a ball carrier is when given good blocking (which is very roughly defined as when the offense doesn't allow the defense to disrupt a rush attempt). Being at or near the 6-yard mark is considered elite in this category and indicates the Niners are excellent at preventing impactful ground gains even when the other team blocks well.
The 49ers may not have a Legion of Boom-caliber secondary, but if the opposing team calls for them to have to stop an aerial assault (something that would be key if they were to face the Denver Broncos in the Super Bowl), they are more than capable of doing so.
San Francisco's defense racked up top-eight totals in Total QBR (39.9, ranked sixth), passing yards per game (221, seventh) and net yards per attempt (6.04). Maybe more important is the fact that the 49ers' pass rush showed tremendous improvement late in the season. From Weeks 12-17, the 49ers tallied a 7.0 percent sack rate on opposing quarterback dropbacks, ranking them eighth in the league in that time frame. Add in four sacks against the Green Bay Packers in the NFC wild-card game and five sacks against the Carolina Panthers in the NFC divisional round, and it shows the Niners can get after an opposing passer.
The 49ers' pass defense also could get a personnel upgrade in the form of cornerback Carlos Rogers. Rogers missed both of San Francisco's playoff games because of a hamstring injury, but there are signs that he could return to the lineup for the NFC Championship Game
If the game plan requires consistent quarterback play (something that will be essential against any of the three other remaining playoff clubs), Colin Kaepernick has shown he is quite capable of delivering this type of performance. He ranked seventh in Total QBR (68.6) over the course of the season and did this despite having a slow start to the season (14.0 and 11.8 Total QBR marks, respectively, in Weeks 2 and 3) and not having No. 1 wideout Michael Crabtree available until Week 13. Over the last five weeks of the season, when Crabtree was part of his receiving corps, Kaepernick's Total QBR shot up to 73.3. His two playoff games were of the same caliber (88.8 versus Green Bay, 71.9 versus Carolina) and thus indicate his performance trend is still pointing skyward.
Crabtree's addition also makes the 49ers' passing game a matchup nightmare for opposing teams, as San Francisco can now boast three pass-catchers with a 9-plus mark in yards per attempt: Anquan Boldin (9.2 YPA on 128 targets), Vernon Davis (10.4 on 82 targets) and Crabtree (9.2 on 31 targets). A YPA of 9 or higher is the general benchmark for ranking as a No. 1 wideout or tight end and thus indicates the 49ers have arguably the strongest 1-2-3 pass-catching combination in the NFL.
The ability to get the power-rushing game going could be key in any playoff matchup, as this has been a huge weakness for New England's defense (2,145 rushing yards allowed this year, ranked 30th), something of a flaw for Denver (ranked 19th in rushing yards allowed from Weeks 7-17) and an Achilles' heel for Seattle. This certainly is a plus for San Francisco, as the ground game posted 160 or more yards in four of its past five regular-season contests and has racked up 293 yards in two playoff games.
Even if all of those advantages don't turn out to be enough, the 49ers also can rely on their special-teams edge. According to ESPN Stats & Information, San Francisco had a 31.62 mark in special teams expected points added (STEPA), which measures special-teams play according to a number of factors. This total was the fifth highest in the league and placed the 49ers higher than the Seahawks (15.5, ranked ninth) and Broncos (minus-9.58, ranked 23rd). The Patriots are the only remaining playoff club that looks to be able to go toe-to-toe with the 49ers in this area (38.59, ranked second).
Having a matchup advantage doesn't mean a team will automatically win the game, but it does mean they are the percentage play to do so. And that is why the San Francisco 49ers should be considered the favorites to come away victorious in Super Bowl XLVIII.
Why 49ers are Super Bowl favorites[/h][h=3]San Francisco's overall strengths make it 'matchup-proof'[/h]By KC Joyner | ESPN Insider
The ability to adapt effectively to a variety of matchup strengths is always a plus in the NFL playoffs, but given the eclectic state of the current crop of Super Bowl contenders, that trait may be more useful than ever. Each of the four remaining teams has a different combination of powerful traits that make them difficult to game plan for, and the eventual Super Bowl winner is going to have to find a way to effectively deal with this.
Jim Harbaugh's San Francisco 49ers might not look at first glance like the leading remaining team in the area of adaptability, but the metrics and game-tape analysis indicate this group is by far the best equipped to successfully adjust its approach to whatever type of personnel challenge comes its way. This is the type of edge that makes the 49ers the favorites to win Super Bowl XLVIII.
This advantage shows up in San Francisco's superb balance across the statistical spectrum and when looking at each potential matchup battle they may have to deal with on their potential Super Bowl path.
<OFFER></OFFER>
Stopping the power rushing game is a key to beating either the Seattle Seahawks or the New England Patriots, and the 49ers are well-equipped in this area. From Week 7 through the end of the regular season, San Francisco allowed an opponent to gain 100 or more yards on the ground only three times. According to ESPN Stats & Information, in that same time frame only two teams (Arizona and Detroit) allowed fewer rush yards per game than the 49ers (85.8).
One key here is San Francisco has allowed 6.1 good blocking yards per attempt (GBYPA), a metric that gauges how productive a ball carrier is when given good blocking (which is very roughly defined as when the offense doesn't allow the defense to disrupt a rush attempt). Being at or near the 6-yard mark is considered elite in this category and indicates the Niners are excellent at preventing impactful ground gains even when the other team blocks well.
The 49ers may not have a Legion of Boom-caliber secondary, but if the opposing team calls for them to have to stop an aerial assault (something that would be key if they were to face the Denver Broncos in the Super Bowl), they are more than capable of doing so.
San Francisco's defense racked up top-eight totals in Total QBR (39.9, ranked sixth), passing yards per game (221, seventh) and net yards per attempt (6.04). Maybe more important is the fact that the 49ers' pass rush showed tremendous improvement late in the season. From Weeks 12-17, the 49ers tallied a 7.0 percent sack rate on opposing quarterback dropbacks, ranking them eighth in the league in that time frame. Add in four sacks against the Green Bay Packers in the NFC wild-card game and five sacks against the Carolina Panthers in the NFC divisional round, and it shows the Niners can get after an opposing passer.
The 49ers' pass defense also could get a personnel upgrade in the form of cornerback Carlos Rogers. Rogers missed both of San Francisco's playoff games because of a hamstring injury, but there are signs that he could return to the lineup for the NFC Championship Game
If the game plan requires consistent quarterback play (something that will be essential against any of the three other remaining playoff clubs), Colin Kaepernick has shown he is quite capable of delivering this type of performance. He ranked seventh in Total QBR (68.6) over the course of the season and did this despite having a slow start to the season (14.0 and 11.8 Total QBR marks, respectively, in Weeks 2 and 3) and not having No. 1 wideout Michael Crabtree available until Week 13. Over the last five weeks of the season, when Crabtree was part of his receiving corps, Kaepernick's Total QBR shot up to 73.3. His two playoff games were of the same caliber (88.8 versus Green Bay, 71.9 versus Carolina) and thus indicate his performance trend is still pointing skyward.
Crabtree's addition also makes the 49ers' passing game a matchup nightmare for opposing teams, as San Francisco can now boast three pass-catchers with a 9-plus mark in yards per attempt: Anquan Boldin (9.2 YPA on 128 targets), Vernon Davis (10.4 on 82 targets) and Crabtree (9.2 on 31 targets). A YPA of 9 or higher is the general benchmark for ranking as a No. 1 wideout or tight end and thus indicates the 49ers have arguably the strongest 1-2-3 pass-catching combination in the NFL.
The ability to get the power-rushing game going could be key in any playoff matchup, as this has been a huge weakness for New England's defense (2,145 rushing yards allowed this year, ranked 30th), something of a flaw for Denver (ranked 19th in rushing yards allowed from Weeks 7-17) and an Achilles' heel for Seattle. This certainly is a plus for San Francisco, as the ground game posted 160 or more yards in four of its past five regular-season contests and has racked up 293 yards in two playoff games.
Even if all of those advantages don't turn out to be enough, the 49ers also can rely on their special-teams edge. According to ESPN Stats & Information, San Francisco had a 31.62 mark in special teams expected points added (STEPA), which measures special-teams play according to a number of factors. This total was the fifth highest in the league and placed the 49ers higher than the Seahawks (15.5, ranked ninth) and Broncos (minus-9.58, ranked 23rd). The Patriots are the only remaining playoff club that looks to be able to go toe-to-toe with the 49ers in this area (38.59, ranked second).
Having a matchup advantage doesn't mean a team will automatically win the game, but it does mean they are the percentage play to do so. And that is why the San Francisco 49ers should be considered the favorites to come away victorious in Super Bowl XLVIII.
