Service Plays Super Bowl XLVIII Sunday 2/2/14

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GL!

NFL Super Bowl XLVIII
Sunday, February 2, 6:30 PM on FOX
MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, New Jersey

Fezzik

1* under 24 first half

Legit Picks Super Bowl Pick

HIGHEST RATED 6* Seahawks +2.5 or more.
Wait til game day as you will likely get 3 or more by then.
If 2.5, buy up to 3. If 3, buy up to 3.5

NORTHCOAST POWERSWEEP 22

conclusion

The Super Bowl is a great handicapping lesson. It is an isolated game and the bye week affords the media to dissect every aspect of the contest. The extra time for the coaching staffs also allows them to go into every detail and some of the best action is found in the men's restroom,aka the Sandusky special. The best value is during the regular season when Vegas posts numbers on 45 or more CFB games along with NFL sides and totals. Do not fall into the trap of putting your biggest play or anything close to it on the most isolated game in any sport. Our Super Bowl System received a revamp and we completely modernized it for this year (see below). A great matchup with the #1 of- fense vs the #1 defense. Weather, of course, will be an issue and you can be assured Manning will be fed up answering questions about playing in the cold. Both teams have gone Under the Total in each of their last 5 games and we expect the same here. DEN's rush D will be able to slow the Seahawks' strength while SEA's pass D leads the league. Play this early as a winter storm may make this line plummet.

PLAY RATING-2 star UNDER 47 !!!!

Spartan Super Bowl

3* Seahawks +2.5

Boxer ( 14-4-1 Playoffs )

Superbowl XLVIII @ Metlife Stadium - East Rutherford, NJ



BRONCOS -1.5 ( 10* )

Broncos/Seahawks UNDER 47.5 ( 4* )



Superbowl XLVIII Props

Total Passing Yards - Russell Wilson (SEA) UNDER 199.5 -115 ( 1* )

Russell Wilson (SEA) - 1st Passing attempt of the game will be? Incomplete +150 ( 1* )

Total Rushing Attempts in the game - Marshawn Lynch (SEA) OVER 21.5 -115 ( 1* )

Total Rushing Yards on 1st Attempt - Marshawn Lynch (SEA) UNDER 3.5 -115 ( 1* )

Total Receptions - Knowshon Moreno (DEN) UNDER 3 -115 ( 1* )

Will Knowshon Moreno (DEN) score a TD in the 1st Half? YES +250 ( 1* )

Total Receptions - Wes Welker (DEN) OVER 5.5 -125 ( 1* )

Weather props next week



10* RARE Play / 5* BIG Play / 4* Strong Play / 3* Solid Play / 2* Opinion



NFL: 10* = 0-0-0 / 5* = 1-2-0 / 4* = 1-2-0 / 3* = 18-8-1 / 2* = 11-5-0

NFL Playoffs: 10* = 0-0-0 / 5* = 0-1-0 / 4* = 3-1-0 / 3* = 11-2-1 / 2* = 0-0-0

Mike Handzelek

Seattle Seahawks vs. Denver Broncos (NFL) - 6:30 PM EST
Premium Pick: Money Line: 120 Seattle Seahawks
Play Title: Rare Super Bowl 10 STAR

For only the 2nd time in the last 20 years has the top 2 seeds made it all the way to the Super Bowl. John Q. Public really wants the scenario of Peyton Manning winning it all and riding off in the sunset of retirement. I'm extra psyched up about this year more than usual because I feel there are some unique findings all pointing to the same side in this one. In 47 tries, no quarterback has EVER won a Super Bowl with 2 different teams. Denver set an NFL record scoring 606 points in the regular season, averaging 37.9 PPG & 457 YPG.

Those who cared to dive into the record books would have found that the last 5 teams that broke single-season scoring records went a perfect 0-5 SU in the grand finale. After further sports database crunchings, the past 7 times a team played 2 games in a row at home and then was installed as Super bowl favorites, that team has gone a perfect 0-7 ATS.

For my pick here, people ask why the ML? The answer is plainly because the pointspread has only come into play 13% of the time with just 6 times in 47 chances. let's get down in the trenches now. Denver is a great offense but has not ran into this type of physicality this season since the Broncos faced NOBODY in the top 6 in total defense all year.

In contrast, Seattle faced EIGHT teams in the top 6 in total defense & 7 teams that won at least 10 games! On the flip side, the Orange & Blue have really inflated passing statistics since they've faced 9 teams who ranked in the bottom 8 in yards per play defense. Denver receivers Demariyus Thomas, Julius Thomas, Eric Decker & Wes Welker must now face a Seattle defense that is both the NFL's best scoring defense & yards per play defense. This unit makes things happen. They are forcing a league-best 2.4 turnovers per game with a very strong TO ratio of +20! Seattle has allowed just 14.4 PPG this season. They have 8 of out of 10 best skill position players in this matchup.

LCB Richard Sherman is stellar along with 2 speedsters at safety with Earl Thomas & Kam Chancellor. Having LB K.J. Wright only solidifies their physicality . DC Dan Quinn has some pretty strong blueprints laid by mediocre San Diego (held Denver to 22 PPG) who had a fierce pass rush. Add to that an effective ground game by Seattle led by RB Marshawn Lynch to keep Manning on the sidelines and that is just how the Chargers got their "W" over Denver earlier.

Taking these teams to the road, we find the Broncos were 5-3 ATS while Seattle going a solid 6-2 SU & ATS this season. Yes, Seattle can play well away from CenturyLink Field. One other big stat you can't overlook is Seattle's BIG GAME success. The Hawks' have gone an amazing 16-3-1 ATS their last 20 versus winning teams - good to the tune of 84%! To boot, Seattle has also covered an unheard of 74% of their last 32 games.

My bottom line says the weather (which could be windy and/or snowy) favors Seattle for both scenarios. I feel Seattle QB Russell Wilson is poised and mature for his 2nd season. He's compiled an amazing 24-8 regular season record since graduating from Wisconsin. I like his chances here since Denver is missing their best pass rusher in Von Miller & their best DB in Chris Harris. having WR Percy Harvin back only enhances Wilson's effectiveness in hitting other wideouts.

The underdog trend in the Super Bowl has seen the pups cash 5 out of the last 6. I'm ready to cash fellas! Let's go to the New Meadowlands Stadium in East Rutherford, NJ for the first cold-weather Super Bowl to throw all the pasta on the Seattle Seahawks on the ML as my Rare Super Bowl 10 STAR! Seahawks will win by 3-7 points.

Phil Steele Inside the PressBox
DENVER 21 SEATTLE 17

Winning Points

Seattle over Denver by 4

PointWise

PROPHECY: DENVER 27 - Seattle 22

Intpicks

SuperBowl Pick - 3* Denver Broncos -2

Cappers Access

Broncos -2

The Gold Sheet SB:

SCORE FORECAST: DENVER 26 - Seattle 17

North Coast Superbowl System

Denver is 43 points better than Seattle

Today's NFL Picks

Seattle vs. Denver

In Super Bowl XLVIII, the Seahawks face a Broncos team that is 15-2 ATS in its last 17 games when playing with 2 weeks of rest. Denver is the pick (-2 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Broncos favored by 5. Dunkel Pick: Denver (-2 1/2). Here are all of this week's picks.

Brandon Lang

Sunday's Play

My 200 Dime Super Sunday Money Move selection is on the Broncos over the Seahawks. The current line on this game is -2 at the majority of sportsbooks in Vegas and offshore. Be sure to shop around for the best price available.


PROP BETS:

Coin Toss - Tails
National Anthem - Over
Peyton Manning (MVP) -
First TD Scored - Julius Thomas

Denver Score First -135
Successful 2-Point Conversion - Yes (+350)
Snow During Game - Yes (+200)
1st Score Field Goal
1st Touchdown Scored - Julius Thomas

STATSYSTEMS SPORTS SUPER BOWL XLVIII OUTLOOK
INFORMATION WORTH BETTING ON EACH DAY
______________________________________________

MetLife Stadium - East Rutherford, NJ
Kickoff: Sunday, Feb. 2 - 6:30 PM EST
Line: Denver -2, Total: 47.5

Peyton Manning has the opportunity to add another historic accomplishment to his stellar National Football League career. Standing in the way of him and the high-scoring Denver Broncos' offense are the Seattle Seahawks, who hope their intimidating defense will help make history of their own. Manning looks to become the first starting quarterback to lead two franchises to a Super Bowl title Sunday night when the Broncos face the Seahawks in Super Bowl XLVIII at New Jersey's MetLife Stadium.

For the first time since the New York Giants beat Buffalo 20-19 in Super Bowl XXV following the 1990 season, the NFL's top-ranked offense from Denver (15-3 SU, 11-6-1 ATS) will face the top-rated defense in Seattle (15-3 SU, 12-6-0 ATS). The last time two No. 1 seeds also played for the league title came following the 2009 season, when New Orleans won 31-17 over an Indianapolis team led by Manning in Super Bowl XLIV. "It will be a great matchup," Seahawks coach Pete Carroll said.

The first outdoor Super Bowl played in a cold-weather city within the league's biggest media market provides a unique backdrop, but much of the focus has remained on Manning. After undergoing a series of neck operations that forced him to miss the 2011 season for the Colts, Manning earned the NFL Comeback Player of the Year award last season when he threw for 4,659 yards with 37 touchdowns while leading the Broncos to a 13-3 record. They lost to eventual Super Bowl champion Baltimore 38-35 in overtime in the divisional round, a stunning defeat in a game Denver appeared to have locked up before a 70-yard Ravens touchdown pass tied the game with less than a minute left.

Poised to help his team take the next step, Manning opened the 2013 season by throwing an NFL record-tying seven touchdowns in a 49-27 rout of Baltimore. That set the tone for the rest of the season, as he went on to set league records with 5,477 passing yards and 55 TDs for a team that averaged NFL bests of 37.9 points, 340.3 passing yards and 457.3 total yards. "To have the kind of season he's had to this point this year, I think is unprecedented," said Denver coach John Fox, the sixth coach to take two teams to a Super Bowl.

Regardless of the outcome Sunday, Manning, who turns 38 in March, doesn't appear ready to call it a career. He also remains humble when talking about his place in NFL history. "I've been being asked about my legacy since I was about 25 years old. I'm not sure you can have a legacy when you're 25 years old. Even 37," said Manning, who won Super Bowl XLI with the Colts and will try to lead Denver to its third after it won during the 1997 and '98 seasons. "I'd like to have to be, like, 70 to have a legacy. I'm not even 100 percent sure what the word even means. "I'm down the homestretch of my career, but I'm still in it. It's not over yet. And so it's still playing out."

His teammates will certainly be glad to see him stay. Demaryius Thomas recorded at least 90 receptions and 1,400 yards for a second straight year and caught a career-high 14 touchdowns in 2013. Eric Decker set career bests with 87 receptions and 1,288 yards while catching 11 TDs. Tight end Julius Thomas had one reception in his first two NFL seasons but blossomed into one of the game's best with 65 for 788 yards and 12 TDs in 2013. Despite missing three games with a concussion, former New England star Wes Welker caught 73 passes and had 10 touchdowns in his first season in Denver.

Plagued by injuries and ineffectiveness the previous two years, New Jersey native Knowshon Moreno enjoyed his most successful season by rushing for 1,038 yards with 10 TDs and catching 60 passes for 548 with three touchdowns. Thanks to Manning, 10 Broncos caught at least 10 passes and eight had TD receptions during the regular season and playoffs. "Peyton's been extraordinary," Carroll said. "People couldn't even dream to have the year that Peyton's had before this season with all the numbers. We're up against it." However, Carroll and his team are confident, and certainly not concerned that they're the first team since the 1990 Bills to not have a player with Super Bowl experience on the roster.

The Seahawks lost 21-10 to Pittsburgh in their only previous Super Bowl appearance following the 2005 season. "I've never seen experience play in games," said talented but polarizing Seattle cornerback Richard Sherman. Led by Sherman and a hard-hitting secondary known as the "Legion of Boom," the Seahawks topped the NFL in points (14.4), total yards (273.6) and passing yards (172.0) allowed. They forced a league-high 39 turnovers and, paced by ends Michael Bennett and Cliff Avril, tied for eighth with 44 sacks. "They are as good as advertised," said Manning, who has completed 67.5 percent of his passes for 580 yards with two TDs and two interceptions in his two Super Bowls. "Probably one of the more impressive things is how well they play together as a unit."

The Seahawks flexed their defensive muscle during the NFC championship game by forcing three fourth-quarter turnovers, including an interception that came off a deflection by Sherman in the end zone to seal the 23-17 win over San Francisco. Sherman followed that game with an angry 20-second on-air rant directed at receiver Michael Crabtree, one which went on to spark a debate over sportsmanship and racial attitudes. He's been more subdued and focused on the matter at hand this week. "I am just a guy trying to be the best," said Sherman, who led the NFL with eight interceptions. "I am a guy who wants to help this team win. I am a fiery competitor who puts his life into his work and puts his everything into his work."

The same goes for Seattle's Marshawn Lynch, who rushed for 1,257 yards and matched a career high with 12 TDs. He also gained 249 yards and scored three touchdowns while averaging 5.0 per carry in the Seahawks' two playoff games. Though Seattle's Russell Wilson has been understandably overshadowed by Manning this week, his 24 regular-season victories are the most by a quarterback in his first two seasons since 1950. Wilson is also the only QB to post a passer rating of at least 100.0 in each of his first two years. Wilson, Lynch and the rest of the Seattle offense will try to get the best of a Denver defense that's allowed an average of 15.0 points and 268.5 yards in the last four games, including postseason.

Manning and the intriguing on-field matchup will be the highlight, but the game-day forecast has been a hot topic from the moment the Meadowlands venue was awarded the Super Bowl. Though contingency plans are in place in the event of bad weather - which allow for the possibility of moving the game to Friday, Saturday or Monday - they likely won't come into play. Seasonable temperatures and little or no precipitation are predicted for Sunday. The kickoff temperature, though, could hover around 39 degrees, which is the coldest such reading in Super Bowl history when Dallas beat Miami 24-3 at Tulane Stadium in New Orleans in Super Bowl VI.

"I don't care where we play," star Seattle safety Earl Thomas said. "I know when we play, all the feelings and the stuff I need to get ready and prepare. It'll be there." Denver and Seattle both played at the Meadowlands this season. Manning beat little brother Eli's Giants 41-23 on Sept. 15. The Seahawks routed the same opponent 23-0 exactly three months to the day of the Broncos' victory. Peyton Manning has a chance to pull even in a sibling rivalry, as he can win at Eli's home stadium for his second championship. That would return the favor from Super Bowl XLVI, in which Eli led the Giants past New England at Indianapolis' Lucas Oil Stadium for his second title.

•PREGAME NOTES: With a Super Bowl victory, Pete Carroll can join Jimmy Johnson and Barry Switzer as the only coaches to win a college football national championship and a Super Bowl in their careers.... Each player on the winning team in Super Bowl XLVIII will receive $92,000. Each losing player gets $46,000.... A 30-second commercial for Super Bowl XLVIII will cost $4 million. In the first Super Bowl, it was $42k.... The face value ticket prices for Super Bowl XLVIII range from $500 to $2,600. Super Bowl I prices were tiered at $6, $8 and $12.

The coldest outdoor Super Bowl on record was Super Bowl VI in New Orleans before the Superdome opened. It was 39 degrees at kickoff.... Super Bowl XLVIII will be distributed to more than 185 countries and broadcast in 30 different languages.... The 2014 Pro Football Hall of Fame class will be announced the day before the Super Bowl with former Seattle Seahawks left tackle Walter Jones, ex-Tampa Bay linebacker Derrick Brooks, former Giants star DE Michael Strahan and former Bucs and Colts coach Tony Dungy as the most likely inductees.

StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Rush/Pass YPP, Time of Possession, along with Turnover Margin). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.

--In past games, the underdog covered the spread 23 times, while the favorite covered the spread 47 times. *EDGE against the spread =DENVER. In past games, the favorite won the game straight up 46 times, while the underdog won straight up 24 times. 41 games went under the total, while 29 games went over the total. *No EDGE.

--In past games, the underdog covered first half line 82 times, while the favorite covered first half line 58 times. *No EDGE. 56 games went under first half total, while 42 games went over first half total. *No EDGE.

•KEY STATS
-- SEATTLE is 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was SEATTLE 25.5, OPPONENT 16.8.

-- SEATTLE is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) versus good passing teams averaging 7 or more passing yards/att. over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was SEATTLE 23.7, OPPONENT 16.3.

-- SEATTLE is 13-3 ATS (+9.7 Units) versus good offensive teams - averaging >=5.65 yards/play over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was SEATTLE 27.5, OPPONENT 19.3.

-- CARROLL is 14-3 ATS (+10.7 Units) versus bad defensive teams who give up 24 or more points/game as the coach of SEATTLE.
The average score was SEATTLE 27.1, OPPONENT 14.6.

-- CARROLL is 10-0 ATS (+10.0 Units) versus bad defensive teams who give up 24 or more points/game in the second half of the season as the coach of SEATTLE.
The average score was SEATTLE 32.0, OPPONENT 12.0.

-- CARROLL is 12-2 ATS (+9.8 Units) versus good passing teams averaging 7 or more passing yards/att. as the coach of SEATTLE.
The average score was SEATTLE 23.1, OPPONENT 19.0.

-- SEATTLE is 6-0 UNDER (+6.0 Units) after covering the spread in 5 or 6 out of their last 7 games this season.
The average score was SEATTLE 20.0, OPPONENT 11.2.

-- SEATTLE is 21-47 against the 1rst half line (-30.7 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
The average score was SEATTLE 8.0, OPPONENT 15.6.

-- SEATTLE is 10-28 against the 1rst half line (-20.8 Units) in road games versus good teams - outscoring opponents by 6+ PPG on the season since 1992.
The average score was SEATTLE 7.3, OPPONENT 16.2.

-- SEATTLE is 0-7 against the 1rst half line (-7.7 Units) in road games in playoff games since 1992.
The average score was SEATTLE 7.6, OPPONENT 17.7.

-- SEATTLE is 18-41 against the 1rst half line (-27.1 Units) in road games after covering the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games since 1992.
The average score was SEATTLE 8.2, OPPONENT 14.4.

-- SEATTLE is 9-26 against the 1rst half line (-19.6 Units) in road games after having won 3 out of their last 4 games since 1992.
The average score was SEATTLE 9.0, OPPONENT 12.3.

-- CARROLL is 0-8 against the 1rst half line (-8.8 Units) off 2 consecutive home wins as the coach of SEATTLE.
The average score was SEATTLE 6.8, OPPONENT 14.4.

-- SEATTLE is 6-0 OVER (+6.0 Units) the 1rst half total versus excellent kickoff return teams, more than 24 yards per return this season.
The average score was SEATTLE 17.2, OPPONENT 13.5.

-- SEATTLE is 7-0 OVER (+7.0 Units) the 1rst half total after 3 or more consecutive wins this season.
The average score was SEATTLE 16.7, OPPONENT 13.9.

-- CARROLL is 11-2 OVER (+8.8 Units) the 1rst half total versus excellent kickoff return teams, more than 24 yards per return in the second half of the season as the coach of SEATTLE.
The average score was SEATTLE 19.1, OPPONENT 9.6.

-- DENVER is 15-2 ATS (+12.8 Units) when playing with 2 weeks or more of rest since 1992.
The average score was DENVER 29.4, OPPONENT 19.6.

-- DENVER is 40-18 OVER (+20.2 Units) when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. > 75%) since 1992.
The average score was DENVER 22.8, OPPONENT 24.6.

-- DENVER is 46-20 OVER (+24.0 Units) versus good rushing teams - averaging >=130 rushing yards/game since 1992.
The average score was DENVER 24.5, OPPONENT 23.1.

-- DENVER is 9-1 OVER (+7.9 Units) in games played on turf over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was DENVER 28.8, OPPONENT 34.2.

-- DENVER is 15-4 OVER (+10.6 Units) after gaining 400 or more total yards in their previous game over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was DENVER 35.6, OPPONENT 24.8.

-- DENVER is 27-10 OVER (+16.0 Units) after gaining 7 or more yards/play in their previous game since 1992.
The average score was DENVER 27.0, OPPONENT 24.5.

-- FOX is 16-4 OVER (+11.6 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points as the coach of DENVER.
The average score was DENVER 28.4, OPPONENT 25.0.

-- DENVER is 15-3 against the 1rst half line (+11.7 Units) when playing with 2 weeks or more of rest since 1992.
The average score was DENVER 17.4, OPPONENT 8.0.

-- DENVER is 6-0 against the 1rst half line (+6.0 Units) off 1 or more consecutive unders this season.
The average score was DENVER 19.2, OPPONENT 3.2.

-- FOX is 16-4 against the 1rst half line (+11.6 Units) versus good defensive teams - allowing <=285 yards/game in all games he has coached since 1992.
The average score was FOX 10.6, OPPONENT 8.3.

-- FOX is 11-2 against the 1rst half line (+8.8 Units) versus good defensive teams - allowing <=285 yards/game in the second half of the season in all games he has coached since 1992.
The average score was FOX 11.8, OPPONENT 8.4.

•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
Denver is 34-19 against Seattle and won 31-14 in the most recent meeting in 2010. That includes the Seahawks' 31-7 home victory in the only postseason matchup between the former AFC West rivals in 1983.

--DENVER is 12-10 against the spread versus SEATTLE since 1992.
--DENVER is 17-6 straight up against SEATTLE since 1992.
--12 of 23 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1992.

--DENVER is 14-7 versus the first half line when playing against SEATTLE since 1992.
--15 of 23 games in this series have gone UNDER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1992.

--Over is 5-2 in the last 7 meetings.
--Over is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings in Denver.

•RECENT TRENDS
--Under is 6-0 in Seahawks last 6 games on fieldturf.
--Under is 5-0 in Seahawks last 5 games following a ATS win.
--Under is 5-0 in Seahawks last 5 games following a S.U. win.

--Over is 13-2-1 in Broncos last 16 games on fieldturf.
--Under is 4-0 in Broncos last 4 games following a S.U. win.
--Over is 24-7 in Broncos last 31 vs. a team with a winning record.

•SITUATIONAL ANALYSIS: Play On - All teams with a money line of +130 to -150 (DENVER) - quick starting team - outscoring opponents by 5+ PPG in the first half, after allowing 17 points or less in 4 straight games.
(45-12 over the last 10 seasons.) (78.9%, +32.4 units. Rating = 4*)

The average money line posted in these games was: Team favored with a money line of: -104.6
The average score in these games was: Team 24.3, Opponent 17.6 (Average point differential = +6.7)

The situation's record this season is: (10-1, +9.9 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (16-3, +13.9 units).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (22-5, +17.1 units).
Since 1983 the situation's record is: (115-72, -17.1 units).

--Play Over - Any team versus the 1rst half total (DENVER) - dominant team - outgaining their opponents by 100 or more yards/game, after 1 or more consecutive wins against the spread, a top-level team (>=75%) playing a team with a winning record in the second half of the season.
(122-66 over the last 10 seasons.) (64.9%, +49.4 units. Rating = 3*)

The average first half total posted in these games was: 22.6
The average first half score in these games was: Team 14.1, Opponent 11.6 (Total first half points scored = 25.6)

The situation's record this season is: (13-4).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (28-21).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (67-43).
Since 1983 the situation's record is: (269-221).
_________________________________

Goodfella

3* Broncos ML

Fezzik

1* under 24 first half
4th quarter -200 to outscore 1st quarter (1*)
Denver Punts OVER 4-125 (1*)
Denver Penalties UNDER 6-130 (1*)
Sea More Penalty Yards, -135 (1*)
Julius Thomas UNDER 53.5 Receiving Yards (1*)
Sea Plus 54 total yards vs. Denver (1*)