Betting UFC On Fox 10

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[h=1]Betting UFC on Fox 10[/h][h=3]Finding the wager value in Henderson vs. Thomson and other fights[/h]By John Candido | FightMetric


Just a few months back, a main event featuring a beltless Benson Henderson against a Strikeforce veteran like Josh Thomson would have seemed unlikely and perhaps a bit of a yawner.
However, following Henderson's second loss to now-lightweight champion Anthony Pettis and Thomson's highly impressive knockout victory against Nate Diaz, the matchup has gained steam and expectations have heightened.
The card offers seven other fights at weight classes of lightweight or below, guaranteeing plenty of fast-paced action for a national audience. Let's look at whether Henderson takes another step back to regaining his championship belt, as well as where to look for value in the other fights at UFC on Fox 10.
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</CENTER>[h=3]Benson Henderson (minus-260) versus Josh Thomson (plus-180)[/h]
While I'm sure Henderson would rather be facing Pettis in a rematch to regain his lightweight belt, he'll instead be facing the surging Thomson, who has, at 35, made a remarkable leap in performance since joining the UFC. Bettors aren't seeing this fight against Thomson as an easy rebound, setting the odds respectably at just over 2-to-1 in favor of Henderson. Looking at the stats, it appears Thomson might finally have hit the ceiling on his remarkable comeback campaign.


While Henderson isn't known for spectacular offense, his defense is exceptional, as well as his ability to maintain a dominant position throughout the fight. This defensive style has led "Bendo" to victory against every single opponent he has faced in both the WEC and UFC, with the exception of Pettis. With Henderson's past seven victories coming by way of decision, he has done well outproducing opponents without taking the necessary risks to finish fights.
He boasts a 1.57 strikes absorbed per minute rate (SAPM), which he has maintained against the highest level of competition in both organizations. Past opponents who did not possess the elite offensive skill set of Pettis have routinely lost playing Bendo's game of attrition. And Thomson's offensive skill set is a world apart from Pettis', with just five of Thomson's 20 career victories coming by way of KO/TKO, and the majority coming by submission. Still, even though Henderson lost to Pettis via submission (arm bar), Thomson might still find it difficult to finish Henderson.
Henderson also holds an advantage in all key offensive areas against Thomson. With Henderson landing 2.89 strikes per minute in comparison to Thomson's 2.5 (SLPM), and landing 2.77 takedowns per 15 minutes compared to Thomson, who lands just 1.7, the fight will likely go to the judges, which bodes well for a Henderson victory. With his unique ability to avoid damage and a superior skill set to score points with the judges, consider Henderson as a minus -260 favorite a great bet.
Insider value pick: Henderson
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</CENTER>[h=3]Stipe Miocic (minus-270) versus Gabriel Gonzaga (plus-190)[/h]

Before his 2012 loss to Stefan "Skyscraper" Struve, Miocic was undefeated and looked like one of the most technically sound fighters in the UFC's heavyweight division. That loss was largely an issue of height difference, but Miocic rebounded for a win over veteran Roy Nelson, which was completely one-sided.


Miocic now takes on Gonzaga, who has experienced a recent surge in his career with two first-round knockouts of Dave Herman and Shawn Jordan. Of course, those were two fighters who love to stand and trade, and Miocic will be a considerably more difficult challenge. Miocic is fundamentally sound, with a record of 4-1 since entering the UFC. He has maintained an incredibly high 5.48 SLPM, which is second only to UFC champion Cain Velasquez in the heavyweight division.
With a much lower 2.4 SLPM, Gonzaga must have a different game plan against an efficient striker such as Miocic, or he could end up in the same position Nelson found himself in -- taking a significant amount of damage while head-hunting. Gonzaga is a BJJ black belt and has an incredibly dangerous submission game at heavyweight, having gained seven out of his 16 victories in this manner. While Gonzaga does average 3.32 takedowns per 15 minutes, Miocic has only been taken down once in his five UFC fights, and in that one instance he returned to his feet with ease. Further, Miocic never has been submitted in his career. Gonzaga is severely outmatched against Miocic's striking and there are no guarantees of being able to incorporate his high-level submission game. Consider Miocic minus-270 favorite line as a great price against the somewhat overrated and streaky Gonzaga.
Insider value pick: Miocic
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</CENTER>[h=3]Donald Cerrone (minus-265) versus Adriano Martins (plus-185)[/h]

Cerrone might arguably be one of the most talented fighters in the UFC, but looking at his record since joining the organization, you wouldn't know it. After an impressive four-fight win streak following the WEC's merger with the UFC, Cerrone has since gone a mediocre 4-3 in his past seven fights.
His decisive win over Evan Dunham at UFC 167 was a good sign for Cerrone, and he'll have a chance to continue that momentum and re-establish himself as one of the best in the lightweight division against newcomer Martins.


When Cerrone is at his best, his striking looks nearly unstoppable. With a 3.83 SLPM rate, Cerrone will again be able to put on a clinic trading, considering Martins' inferior 1.14 SLPM. The real difference, however, is in Cerrone's accuracy, where he lands strikes at a 47 percent clip. Compared to Martins, who only lands strikes at just 35 percent, Cerrone should have a decided advantage standing up. One thing to watch: While Martins' striking isn't as technical as Cerrone or Cerrone's recent opponents, he has gained 11 out of his 25 victories by KO/TKO, which means he has enough knockout power to be a threat to Cerrone, whose jaw has been suspect at times.
If Martins plans on implementing a ground game, Cerrone has been just as dangerous there, averaging 2.01 submissions per 15 minutes with 14 out of his 21 victories by submission. Given Cerrone's elite level in both striking and in the clinch, it's no wonder that he's a considerable minus-265 favorite. However, Cerrone's run of subpar performances is too significant to ignore, and Martins' ability to uncork a surprise finish, consider staying away from this one.
Insider value pick: Stay away
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</CENTER>[h=3]Eddie Wineland (minus-380) versus Yves Jabouin (plus-260)[/h]

While Wineland's three losses since joining the UFC might make you wonder why he's considered to be such a huge favorite in this bout, consider the losses have come at the hands of a virtual who's who of the bantamweight division: Renan Barao. Urijah Faber. Joseph Benavidez.

Outside of that elite-level talent, however, Wineland has been incredibly successful, posting a 6-1 record. Against the 34-year-old Jabouin, who possesses a long, yet less-than-impressive career record mainly against a group of less-than-impressive opponents, Wineland should again return to his winning ways.
Notably, Wineland always has been very productive offensively, landing 3.24 strikes per minute and attaining half of his victories by KO/TKO. Jabouin, on the other hand, hasn't had as much offensive success, as he has failed to finish a fight in his last nine bouts. Despite being Jabouin's 4-2 in the UFC, three of those victories were by split decisions, never a good sign for a fighter. Before he joined the WEC (then UFC), Jabouin feasted on lesser leagues with a number of KOs/TKOs. Yet he has not been able to maintain a similarly effective offense against higher level opponents.
Against Wineland, Jabouin will be facing one of the most difficult opponents in the bantamweight division. Wineland holds a 73 percent striking defense, which should nullify Jabouin's ability to finish the fight. It'd be surprising to see Jabouin significantly step up his game to a new level against a fighter nearly five years his junior and this late in his career. Thus, as a minus-380 favorite against a severely outmatched opponent, consider Wineland a good value.
Insider value pick: Wineland
 

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