Fantasy Football Checkdown

Fantasy checkdown: Is Rice cooked?

By Tom Carpenter | ESPN.com




It may be the offseason in fantasyland, but that doesn't mean fantasy owners should shut things down until August. Fantasy-relevant things happen all year long via coaching changes, coordinator changes, free agency, the draft and OTAs. And the more informed you are as an owner, the better decisions you'll be able to make on draft day as the 2014 regular season nears. As such, the "Friday fantasy checkdown" continues with the latest fantasy-relevant buzz around the NFL.

Ray Rice just turned 27 on Wednesday, so he should be stepping into the prime years of his NFL career, yet there is genuine concern about how much gas he has left in the tank. Injuries and a weak O-line played roles in Rice posting the worst stats (3.1 yards per carry, 660 rushing yards, 58 catches, 321 receiving yards, 4 TDs) we've seen from him since he became the Baltimore Ravens' featured running back in '09. However, Rice was flat out horrible in some key areas, all on his own.

<OFFER>"Rice broke just nine tackles on his 214 carries this season, according to Pro Football Focus. That total was by far the lowest among NFL running backs who got more than 155 carries," noted Matt Vensel of the Baltimore Sun. "And Rice, who ranked 19th in the league in total carries, averaged just 1.52 yards after contact, which was also the lowest among qualifiers."

It's difficult to count Rice down for the count at age 27, even with 1,799 career touches worth of wear and tear on his body, but his lack of production in nearly every facet of his game in 2013 should make us skeptical about the odds of him returning to form as a top-three fantasy running back in '14.

• Adrian Peterson underwent groin surgery this week and should be healthy in about six weeks. ESPN's Minnesota Vikings reporter, Ben Goessling, expects the procedure to help the running back "get his top speed back." He also should get a bump from having Norv Turner calling plays. However, Peterson has been such a workhorse that his body could continue to betray him as he attempts to outrun Father Time. He remains the No. 1 fantasy option, but we should grow a little more skeptical each season about his ability to live up to that "All Day" moniker.

Position coaches rarely get much notoriety in fantasy circles, but ESPN Pittsburgh Steelers reporter Scott Brown believes that the addition of Hall of Famer Mike Munchak as the Steelers' offensive line coach could be a boon for RB Le'Veon Bell next season. Not only will Munchak coach up their "young and promising offensive line," writes Brown, but Bell "should also thrive in the zone blocking scheme that Munchak is expected to make a staple of the Steelers' offense. Bell is a patient yet decisive runner, and that blend is perfect for zone blocking, which requires backs to read and react." Bell will be a fine upside pick in '14.

In other running back news, it looks like the Carolina Panthers won't cut Jonathan Stewart due to the nature of his contract. That means that the team likely will be back to a timeshare with Stewart and DeAngelo Williams (and to some extent, Mike Tolbert) in '14, which will limit the production we see from both of them. With J-Stew out for most of the past season, Williams was a viable fantasy play most weeks, but that may not be the case next season.

In southeast Michigan, Detroit Lions GM Martin Mayhew said he expects new head coach Jim Caldwell to lean on the run. The Lions have the pieces in place to make that happen, but will Caldwell make it come to fruition? Here is a look at how Caldwell has balanced rushing and passing in the past.

Tennessee Titans tight end Delanie Walker posted career-high stats in 2013. Those numbers could rise even higher in 2014 now that he has head coach Ken Whisenhunt and offensive coordinator Jason Michael coaching him up. Both Whisenhunt and Michael are former tight end coaches. Whisenhunt even said that "there’s a lot of elements to what Delanie does that are similar [to Antonio Gates]." Walker may be on the short list of true breakout fantasy tight ends in '14.

Other tight ends who could get a nice bump in '14 are those who will be on the Houston Texans roster under new coach Bill O'Brien, who got the most out of Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez when he was the New England Patriots' offensive coordinator. The big question now is who will be back in '14? Garrett Graham is an unrestricted free agent and Owen Daniels could be a cap casualty. If they both leave, second-year TE Ryan Griffin could be the prime beneficiary.

A West coast-style offense under new OC Ben McAdoo could open up things for New York Giants wide receivers Rueben Randle and Jerrel Jernigan next season, as they likely will use more three-receiver sets.

We know that new Tampa Bay Buccaneers coach Lovie Smith will ride Doug Martin and the rushing attack, which means that in order for Vincent Jackson and Mike Williams to max out their production as pass-catchers, their quarterback will have to make the most of his opportunities. The catch right now (pun intended), is that we don't know who will be their starting quarterback in '14. "They have to decide if they believe Mike Glennon is a capable starter or not. If the answer is no, the Bucs will need to go out and get a quarterback," wrote ESPN Bucs reporter Pat Yasinskas. "There isn't likely to be anyone overly impressive in free agency, so that means the Bucs may have to use the No. 7 overall draft pick on a quarterback." Once the Bucs have their starter in place, we can truly assess the prospects for their WR corps in '14.

Fantasy checkdown: Spiller time?

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"It's real simple: We're going to give him the ball until he throws up. So he's either got to tap out or throw up on the field. Let's just put it that way."

Remember when Buffalo Bills offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett uttered those words about C.J. Spiller back in August? It seemed that it finally was time for the aging Fred Jackson to step aside so the Bills could ride their burgeoning star running back Spiller hard every week. Of course, as is often the case in fantasy football, August dreams of grandeur can quickly turn into pipe dreams during the regular season.

As it turned out, F-Jax wasn't ready to fade away and Spiller couldn't stay healthy. Spiller ended up with 927 rushing yards, 185 receiving yards and four total touchdowns, nice numbers, but far from the elite numbers expected from a first-round fantasy pick. Of course, his nagging high-ankle sprain might have played a part in that.

<OFFER>"Frankly, I think he's been really, really effective up until this past season, and I don't think he was ever healthy this past season," said ESPN NFL Insider Matt Williamson. "He rarely looked like himself, and I don't think he's all of a sudden forgotten how to be fast, explosive, and I think he's entering the prime of his career and just never looked super healthy to me. In spurts he did, but not for a couple of games in a row."

Spiller lacked any sort of consistency, yet he racked up more than 100 combined yards five times, including four 100-plus and two 150-plus performances in his final eight games. He might not be a "run-till-he-pukes" kind of workhorse, but if the Bills can get him a solid 15-plus touches per game, Spiller could develop into a reliable and elite fantasy running back next season, especially in points-per-reception leagues.

"I think he needs to be used right. By that I mean he can't be a workhorse back, because he's so reliant on speed and explosiveness. He's not that big, obviously, that if he is going to get hammered play after play and run up the gut 15 times a game, you're going to use him up too fast," Williamson added. "I think he needs to be closer to a [Darren] Sproles type, where you split him out wide and run wide receiver routes with him, get him in space, run more draws. I think it'll eventually go that way."

Here are a few more fantasy-relevant notes from the past week:

In his 23 regular-season starts, Colin Kaepernick has averaged 33.2 rushing yards on 5.8 rushing attempts per game. In six postseason starts, he has averaged 84.5 yards on 9.9 attempts. Keeping in mind that in ESPN standard fantasy leagues 40 rushing yards equal one passing touchdown, Kaepernick is essentially contributing two extra passing touchdowns (and change) with his legs in the playoffs. So is there any chance that will change during the 2014 regular season? Probably not. Kaepernick said this week that the San Francisco 49ers coaches have limited his regular-season rushes to limit his injury risk. Keeping him healthy is a good thing, plus we can't complain much about the 524 yards he piled up with his legs this season, considering that comes out to 13 passing touchdowns' worth of production.

ESPNDallas.com's Calvin Watkins looked at how Scott Linehan might fare as the new Dallas Cowboys' play-caller. It's an interesting read, noting that Linehan has had success with running backs and receivers at different times during his career. However, Watkins did call attention to Linehan's bottom line, which could raise concern for the Cowboys offense as a whole: "In the past eight seasons, Linehan's offenses ranked in the top 10 just twice and finished lower than 25th three times."

Assuming the Baltimore Ravens are able to keep unrestricted free agent Dennis Pitta in the fold for 2014, he could be in store for a big season. Pitta will be fully healed from the hip surgery that cost him much of the 2013 campaign, and working with tight end-friendly offensive coordinator Gary Kubiak and TE coach Wade Harman, who worked with Hall of Famer Shannon Sharpe, should help max out his production.

Considering Bryce Brown went bananas for 347 yards in two games late during his 2012 rookie campaign, he seemed like an elite fantasy handcuff for LeSean McCoy owners in Chip Kelly's rush-heavy, high-octane offense this season. Shady stayed healthy, though, and Brown did nothing of note, aside from a late-season 65-yard dash. By the time 2014 rolls around, it's possible Chris Polk may unseat Brown as McCoy's top backup: "If I’m handicapping the race right now, I’d say Polk has a better shot than Brown at being the No. 2 RB going into next season," wrote Birds 24/7 writer Sheil Kapadia.

Drew Brees spent seven years working under Joe Lombardi's guidance, the past four of which with Lombardi as his quarterback coach. Brees expects Lombardi, the Detroit Lions' new offensive coordinator, to bring innovative ideas to the Lions' offense in '14. That could lead to a return to the high-end fantasy success we saw from Matthew Stafford in 2011, when he racked up 5,038 yards, 41 touchdowns and just 16 interceptions.

Last week, we examined Ray Rice's potential following a 2013 season that was marred by injuries, poor O-line play and a general lack of individual success. Well, it turns out that backfield mate Bernard Pierce was hurting, too, and required offseason surgery on his shoulder. If Rice and Pierce can get healthy, then offseason moves by the Ravens could put both backs in position to perform better next season.

In order for QB Ryan Tannehill and WR Mike Wallace to really make an impact in fantasy, the quarterback is going to have to improve the accuracy of his deep ball.

A concussion cut short Jordan Reed's rookie campaign, but we saw his upside in Weeks 7 and 8, when he racked up a total of 224 yards and a touchdown on 17 catches. ESPN's Washington Redskins reporter, John Keim, expects the Redskins to target Reed downfield more often next season, so the tight end should be considered a true breakout candidate in '14. "I don’t know what Jay Gruden’s plans are for him, but I do know that new offensive coordinator Sean McVay loves Reed, and it’s not hard for anyone to see the talent he has just by flipping on the film," Keim noted.