STATSYSTEMS SPORTS STAT/SHEETS, 2/1/14
NCAA COLLEGE BASKETBALL
INFORMATION WORTH BETTING ON EACH DAY
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***** Saturday, 2/1/14 NCAACB Knowledge *****
(ALL RESULTS ATS) - Against The Spread - and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Each and every day during the 2013-14 NCAA College Basketball season we will analyze all of your daily basketball action, featuring all our Highly-Rated (Situational & Match-up) Power Trends, along with some of our Situational Analysis (Betting Systems) that pertain to some of that days match-ups.
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Saturday's Notebook
•Richmond/VCU split last four games, after Rams had won previous six meetings; Spiders won four of last five games but are 1-2 on A-13 road, losing by 14 at St Bonaventure, 20 at Saint Louis. A-13 home favorites of 9+ points are 2-7 versus spread. VCU is 5-1 in A-13 but 0-3 as favorites at home, despite winning by 14-15-16 points- they're forcing turnovers 24.5% of time in A-13 games. Richmond is #1 in A-13 protecting ball.
•Ohio State lost five of last six games, Wisconsin lost four of last five, so this is huge game for both sides. Teams are 6-6 in last dozen series tilts, but Badgers won seven of last eight games here, with lone loss 58-52 in '12. Buckeyes lost last three road games by 4-10-6 points; they lost last game at home to Penn State. Badgers are 1-3 as home favorites, losing last two SU. Big Dozen single digit home favorites are 6-11 versus spread.
•Ohio won six of last seven games with Toledo, winning last five here by 8-11-33-13-9 points. Bobcats won four of their last five games, are 1-3 as MAC home favorites, losing SU to Akron/Bowling Green, winning by 20-4 points. Toledo won its last six games since losing at W. Michigan in MAC opener; they've won road games since at Akron/Miami, O. MAC home favorites of less than 5 points are 2-8 versus spread.
•Missouri was outscored 23-12 on line in 90-83 OT loss at Kentucky in only series meeting LY, game Tigers led by 13 in first half. Missouri won three of last four games, winning last two home games by 21-8 points after losing home opener to Georgia. SEC home underdogs of 4 or less points are 9-1-1 versus spread. Kentucky lost last two road games, allowing 87 points at both Arkansas/LSU, in losses by 2-5 points.
•Memphis is 11-2 in last 13 games with SMU, but lost two of last three visits to SMU, in series where home side won five of last six meetings. Tigers won five of last six games, are 4-0 on AAC road- both its losses in league are at home. AAC favorites are 6-2 in games where spread was 5 or less points. Mustangs are 3-0 at home in AAC, winning by 14-17-9 points- they had 4-game win streak snapped at USF Tuesday.
•Georgetown lost last five games, is 1-6 since Joshua Smith flunked out of school; three of their last five losses are by 10+ points. Michigan State is down two starters, still won at Iowa last game; they're 10-0 away from home, with seven of ten wins versus top 100 teams. Hoyas are 2-5 top 40 teams, with four of five losses by 13+- they turn ball over 19.5% of the time. Spartans are holding teams to 41.5% inside the arc.
•Iowa State was 14-0 before losing 87-82 at Oklahoma Jan 11- they lost four of five games since, with only win by 6 over K-State. Sooners hit 13-30 from arc in first meeting, are 7-4 in last 11 series games, but lost last two visits to Ames by 11-19 points. Oklahoma won three of its last four games, is 3-1 as road dog, with only Big X losses by 6-7 points. Big X home favorites of 7+ points are 5-7 versus spread.
•Kansas won five in row, 11 of last 13 games with Texas, winning three in row in Austin by 12-3-5 points. Jayhawks are 4-1-1 as Big X favorites, 2-0 on road, winning away games by 7-7-22 points. Longhorns won last five games, are 3-1 at home, with three of the four (dogs 4-0 vs. spread) decided by exactly three points. Kansas makes 41.7% of its 3's, turns ball over 21.1% of time in conference play. Big X home underdogs of 5 or less points are 5-2-1 versus spread.
•Home team won last six UMass-St Joe's games; Minutemen lost two in a row here by 3-11 points- they lost two of last three games after a 16-1 start, losing last two road games, in Richmond/Olean. St Joe's won 10 of its last 12 games; they're 0-2 as A-13 home favorites, beating Duquesne by 9, URI by 4. Hawks are turning ball over 22% of time but shooting 38.6% on arc. A-13 home favorites of 5 or less points are 9-5 versus spread.
•Duke didn't play road game until January, then lost its first two in ACC play, before winning last two, at Miami/Pittsburgh; Blue Devils make 41.8% of 3's in ACC play, only 42.7% inside arc- will shooting in a packed dome screw up their shooting? ACC home favorites of 5 or less points are 3-7 versus spread. Syracuse is 7-0 in ACC, 1-2 as home favorites, allowing 47.7 ppg in wins by 5-12-5 points- no ACC team has scored 60 on them.
•Iowa lost last eight visits to Illinois, last three by 11+ points, but they won last two games with Illini, by 3-8 points, with one win conference tourney last March. Hawkeyes lost two of last three games, losing last game at home to shorthanded Michigan State- they're 2-2 on Big Dozen road, losing at Wisconsin/Michigan. Big Dozen home underdogs of 6 or less points are 6-5 versus spread. Illini lost last six games, scoring less than 60 points in four of last five.
•Home team won five of last six Boise-UNLV games; Broncos lost three games here, by 3-17-4 points. Rebels won last three games, are 1-3 as a home favorite, winning last two home games by 20-2, after losing first two. Road team is 6-2 versus spread in Boise's games; Broncos are 1-2 on MW road, losing by 3 in San Diego, 9 at New Mexico, winning by 9 in Nevada. MW home favorites of 5 or less points are 4-1 versus spread.
•Arizona is 8-0 in Pac-12 but failed to cover last three; they're 2-1 as road favorites, winning by 4-20-3 points- they missed 20 foul shots in last two games. Cal won in Tucson LY, its first series win in last four games- Arizona won last two visits here by total of six points, with one of wins in triple OT. Pac-12 home underdogs of 5 or less points are 7-4 against spread. Golden Bears lost last three games after starting 5-0 in Pac-12.
•Situational Trends of The Day
-- IOWA is 17-1 ATS (+15.9 Units) after allowing 30 points or less in the first half in 2 straight games over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was IOWA 69.8, OPPONENT 62.4.
-- ARIZONA is 10-1 UNDER (+8.9 Units) after 2 straight games giving up 9 or less offensive rebounds this season.
The average score was ARIZONA 69.4, OPPONENT 53.4.
-- DAVIDSON is 12-0 (+12.0 Units) against the 1rst half line in home games after 4 straight games forcing opponent to commit 14 or less turnovers over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was DAVIDSON 43.0, OPPONENT 22.3.
-- ILLINOIS is 20-3 UNDER (+16.7 Units) the 1rst half total after 3 consecutive conference games over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was ILLINOIS 28.1, OPPONENT 28.7.
-- JEFF LEBO is 19-1 ATS (+17.9 Units) after trailing in their previous game by 15 or more points at the half in all games he has coached since 1997.
The average score was LEBO 75.7, OPPONENT 68.3.
•Matchup Trends of The Day
-- APPALACHIAN ST is 11-1 ATS (+9.9 Units) versus teams who attempt 21 or more 3 point shots/game on the season over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was APPALACHIAN ST 68.7, OPPONENT 71.7.
-- LOYOLA-MARYMOUNT is 12-0 OVER (+12.0 Units) in road games versus bad pressure defensive teams - forcing <=12 turnovers/game after 15+ games since 1997.
The average score was LOYOLA-MARYMOUNT 71.2, OPPONENT 71.8.
-- SAN JOSE ST is 1-13 (-13.3 Units) against the 1rst half line when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was SAN JOSE ST 22.9, OPPONENT 35.6.
-- ILLINOIS is 20-2 UNDER (+17.8 Units) the 1rst half total when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was ILLINOIS 27.5, OPPONENT 30.5.
-- WES MILLER is 1-15 ATS (-15.5 Units) versus good ball handling teams - committing <=14 turnovers/game after 15+ games as the coach of UNC-GREENSBORO.
The average score was MILLER 66.6, OPPONENT 74.4.
•Situation Analysis of The Day
-- Play On - Road favorites of -165 to -500 versus the money line (VALPARAISO) - excellent shooting team (>=47.5%) against an average shooting team (42.5-45%) after 15+ games, after a game where a team made 55% of their shots or better.
(55-4 since 1997.) (93.2%, +47.3 units. Rating = 6*)
The average money line posted in these games was: Team favored with a money line of: -192.5
The average score in these games was: Team 75.4, Opponent 66.7 (Average point differential = +8.8)
The situation's record this season is: (3-0, +3 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (14-0, +14 units).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (18-2, +14.6 units).
-- Play Against - Home favorites of 10 to 19.5 points (UT-CHATTANOOGA) - average 3PT shooting team (32-36.5%) against a poor 3PT defense (>=36.5%), good ball handling team (<=14.5 TO's) against a poor pressure defense (<=14.5 TO's) after 15+ games.
(26-4 over the last 5 seasons.) (86.7%, +21.6 units. Rating = 4*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is: (10-20 over the last 5 seasons.)
The average line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 11.9
The average score in these games was: Team 65.5, Opponent 69.8 (Average point differential = -4.3)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 13 (43.3% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (10-1).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (47-26).
-- Play Against - Home teams as a favorite or pick (WOFFORD) - average shooting team (42.5-45%) against an poor defensive team (45-47.5%), average rebounding team (+/-3 Reb/G) against a poor rebounding team (-3 to -6 Reb/G) - 15+ games.
(37-10 over the last 5 seasons.) (78.7%, +26.6 units. Rating = 3*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is: (15-32 over the last 5 seasons.)
The average line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 8.6
The average score in these games was: Team 64.4, Opponent 70 (Average point differential = -5.6)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 15 (33.3% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (2-1).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (17-5).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (95-65).
-- Play Against - Home favorites versus the 1rst half line (BYU) - an average 3PT defensive team (32-36.5%) against a good 3PT shooting team (>=36.5%), off a no-cover where the team won straight up as a favorite against opponent off an upset loss by 15 points or more as a favorite.
(45-12 since 1997.) (78.9%, +31.8 units. Rating = 4*)
The average first half line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 5.4
The average first half score in these games was: Team 31.4, Opponent 32.3 (Average first half point differential = -1)
The situation's record this season is: (2-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (6-3).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (15-3).
-- Play On - Home underdogs versus the 1rst half line (DEPAUL) - poor defensive team - shooting pct defense of >=45% on the season, after allowing 80 points or more in a loss to a conference rival, in February games.
(33-8 over the last 5 seasons.) (80.5%, +24.2 units. Rating = 3*)
The average first half line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 3.5
The average first half score in these games was: Team 31.3, Opponent 32 (Average first half point differential = -0.7)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (15-3).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (112-105).
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Saturday's Match-ups
#527 OHIO ST @ #528 WISCONSIN
(TV: 12:00 PM EST, ESPN - Line: Wisconsin -5, Total: N/A) - Ohio State might be enjoying its last game as a ranked team for a while when it visits No. 13 Wisconsin on Saturday. The 23rd-ranked Buckeyes suffered their fifth loss in six games in stunning fashion at home against Penn State on Wednesday and need to clean up several things on both ends of the court before getting back to the top 10. The Badgers are enduring their own rough patch with four losses in five games.
Ohio State and Wisconsin both spent time in the top five this season and both went into Big Ten play undefeated but have found trouble against their conference foes. The Buckeyes had an 80-game home winning streak against unranked opponents snapped with Wednesday’s 71-70 overtime setback to the Nittany Lions while the Badgers suffered a 65-56 home loss on Wednesday to Northwestern - a team they had beaten by 27 points less than a month earlier. Wisconsin has dropped two straight at home and is experiencing uncharacteristic breakdowns on the defensive end.
•ABOUT OHIO STATE (16-5 SU, 9-11-0 ATS, 3-5 Big Ten): The Buckeyes held an 11-point lead in the second half against Penn State but were doomed by missed free throws and poor defense down the stretch to fall to 1-5 since beginning the season with 15 straight victories. “This feels different from past slumps because of the position we were previously in,” coach Thad Matta told reporters. “We have to be tougher physically and mentally. It’s been stressing us out for weeks now.” Ohio State shot 28 percent from the floor in the second half Wednesday and is averaging 61.8 points over its last four contests - nearly 11 points below its season average.
•ABOUT WISCONSIN (17-4 SU, 12-9-0 ATS, 4-4 Big Ten): The Badgers built their reputation under coach Bo Ryan on defense but have allowed an average of 71.2 points in the last five games and surrendered 43 in the second half of Wednesday’s loss to Northwestern. The offense is not holding up its end, either, and leading scorer Sam Dekker is 2-of-16 from 3-point range over the last four games. “Sometimes you miss a couple of shots and that basket gets pretty small,” Ryan told reporters. “It was pretty small (against Northwestern).”
•PREGAME NOTES: Ohio State leads the Big Ten in 3-point defense, holding opponents to 26.9 percent, while Wisconsin ranks third in 3-point offense at 37.3 percent.... Buckeyes F LaQuinton Ross has scored in double figures in five straight games but totaled 11 points in two regular-season meetings with the Badgers last season.... Ohio State took two of three from Wisconsin in 2012-13, including a 50-43 triumph in the Big Ten championship game.... The Badgers are 4-16 versus the spread when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 80%) over the last two seasons.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, WISCONSIN covered the spread 507 times, while OHIO ST covered the spread 471 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, WISCONSIN won the game straight up 645 times, while OHIO ST won 332 times. In 1000 simulated games, WISCONSIN covered the first half line 506 times, while OHIO ST covered the first half line 494 times. *No EDGE.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--OHIO ST is 18-15 against the spread versus WISCONSIN since 1997.
--WISCONSIN is 17-16 straight up against OHIO ST since 1997.
--14 of 24 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL since 1997.
--WISCONSIN is 16-16 versus the first half line when playing against OHIO ST since 1997.
--15 of 24 games in this series have gone UNDER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1997.
--Under is 10-4 in the last 14 meetings.
--Favorite is 8-1 ATS in the last 9 meetings.
--Home team is 7-2 ATS in the last 9 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--OSU is 0-5 ATS in their last 5 vs. Big Ten
--Under is 5-2 in OSU last 7 road games.
--Under is 9-3 in OSU last 12 Sat. games.
--WIS is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
--Over is 6-2 in WIS last 8 overall.
--Over is 6-2 in WIS last 8 vs. Big Ten.
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#551 KENTUCKY @ #552 MISSOURI
(TV: 1:00 PM EST, CBS - Line: Kentucky -2, Total: N/A) - Kentucky’s young team has yet to prove it can beat a strong club on the road. The 11th-ranked Wildcats look to avoid a second straight road loss when they visit a much more experienced Missouri squad on Saturday. Kentucky might have a plethora of recent high school All-Americans in its backcourt, but it’s the Tigers who boast the top-scoring backcourt trio in the SEC in Earnest Ross, Jabari Brown and Jordan Clarkson.
Missouri did what the Wildcats couldn’t by winning at Arkansas on Tuesday and have taken three of their last four to creep up just behind second-place Kentucky in the SEC standings. The Wildcats are coming off an 87-82 loss at LSU in which star freshman forward Julius Randle was limited to a season-low six points on 3-of-11 shooting. The Tigers will counter Randle with fellow freshman forward Johnathan Williams III, who hauled in 12 rebounds and blocked three shots in Tuesday’s 75-71 win at Arkansas.
•ABOUT KENTUCKY (15-5 SU, 8-8-2 ATS, 5-2 SEC): Coach John Calipari still is figuring out how to get the most out of the talent on hand and is shuffling minutes between frontcourt players Willie Cauley-Stein, Dakari Johnson and Alex Poythress based on matchups and effort once the games start. “This is a team in progress,” Calipari told reporters after the loss at LSU. “It is all about the process. The process we are at right now is, will we have the mental toughness to break through and be the kind of team we want to be?” Kentucky allows an average of 66.6 points but has surrendered 85.3 in its last three losses - all on the road.
•ABOUT MISSOURI (16-4 SU, 8-8-2 ATS, 4-3 SEC): The Tigers sit a game behind the Wildcats in the SEC standings and are looking at their toughest stretch of the conference slate with a trip to No. 4 Florida coming up after the Kentucky contest. Brown, Ross and Clarkson combined for 59 points in the win over Arkansas on Tuesday and did a strong job of spreading out the shots among each other. Brown leads the SEC in scoring with an average of 19.8 points and has gone off for at least 22 each of the last five contests while shooting 60.7 percent from the field in that span.
•PREGAME NOTES: Missouri leads the SEC in free-throw percentage at 72.3, while Kentucky struggles to 67.6 percent from the stripe.... Brown and Clarkson both have reached double figures in every game this season.... Wildcats G James Young has shot 50 percent or better from the field in three straight games after failing to make half his shots in any of the previous nine contests.... The Wildcats are 3-14 versus the spread in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last two seasons.... The Tigers are 15-4 against the spread versus top caliber teams - outscoring their opponents by 12+ points/game over the last three seasons.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, MISSOURI covered the spread 569 times, while KENTUCKY covered the spread 407 times. *EDGE against the spread =MISSOURI. In 1000 simulated games, MISSOURI won the game straight up 510 times, while KENTUCKY won 459 times. In 1000 simulated games, MISSOURI covered the first half line 529 times, while KENTUCKY covered the first half line 429 times. *No EDGE.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--KENTUCKY is 2-0 against the spread versus MISSOURI since 1997.
--KENTUCKY is 3-0 straight up against MISSOURI since 1997.
--1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1997.
--MISSOURI is 2-0 versus the first half line when playing against KENTUCKY since 1997.
--2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1997.
•RECENT TRENDS
--UK is 2-12-2 ATS in their last 16 road games.
--UK is 9-19-1 ATS in their last 29 vs. Southeastern.
--Under is 6-1-1 in UK last 8 games following a ATS loss.
--Under is 10-3 in MIZZ last 13 overall.
--Under is 7-1 in MIZZ last 8 home games.
--Under is 7-3 in MIZZ last 10 vs. Southeastern.
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#561 BAYLOR @ #562 OKLAHOMA ST
(TV: 2:00 PM EST, ESPN - Line: Oklahoma State -11, Total: N/A) - Oklahoma State may feel like it has fallen on hard times with losses in two of its last three, but those struggles pale in comparison to the team it will host Saturday in Baylor. The 10th-ranked Cowboys dropped their third road game in four tries with Monday’s 88-76 loss at Oklahoma, but return home for the first of two games – against Baylor and Iowa State on Monday – that could keep them in the Big 12 race. Oklahoma State is 10-0 at home, with nine of those wins by at least 13 points.
Any advantage the opponent has at the moment is bad news for the Bears, who are only one game ahead of last-place Texas Christian in the Big 12 standings and in danger of dropping six in a row for the first time since 2009. Baylor dropped its fifth straight contest Tuesday at home against West Virginia 66-64, giving up a reverse layup in the final seconds. "I really can't complain about my team's effort. Like coaches say, back to the lab, back to the drawing board,” forward Rico Gathers told the school’s official website.
•ABOUT BAYLOR (13-7 SU, 4-9-1 ATS, 1-6 Big 12): The Bears entered conference action as one of the top shooting teams in the nation at 50.4 percent (while holding opponents to 38.8 percent), but those figures have shifted to 40.5 and 47.4, respectively, during their forgettable seven-game conference run. Baylor lost the turnover battle 17-6 against West Virginia – leading to an 18-0 disadvantage in points off miscues – and has created more than 10 takeaways only twice in league play. The Bears, who set a school record by hitting all 21 of their free throws six games ago, are 70-of-119 from the foul line during their losing streak.
•ABOUT OKLAHOMA STATE (16-4 SU, 8-8-0 ATS, 4-3 Big 12): Since the loss of forward Michael Cobbins to an Achilles’ injury seven games ago, the Cowboys have averaged a conference-high 22.8 fouls, mostly as a result of players sliding into unfamiliar roles. Three players (Le'Bryan Nash, Kamari Murphy and Stevie Clark) fouled out against Oklahoma, with Nash and Clark doing so in a combined 28 minutes. Coach Travis Ford, who told The Oklahoman the recurring foul trouble is a “major issue,” has been reluctant to trust 7-0 Marek Soucek or 6-10 Gary Gaskins to replace Cobbins’ inside presence defensively.
•PREGAME NOTES: Oklahoma State is 53-19 all-time against Baylor, including a 25-4 mark at home.... Despite playing 4.2 fewer minutes per game than he did as a freshman, Baylor C Isaiah Austin has nearly doubled his block average from 1.7 to a conference-leading 2.9.... The Cowboys rank third in the conference in field goal percentage (47.7) and first in the league in field goal percentage defense (38.8).... Oklahoma State is 3-12 against the spread versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 4+ points/game after 15+ games over the last two seasons.... Baylor is 1-10 versus the spread versus good offensive teams - scoring 77+ points/game after 15+ games over the last three seasons.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, OKLAHOMA ST covered the spread 528 times, while BAYLOR covered the spread 442 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, OKLAHOMA ST won the game straight up 809 times, while BAYLOR won 175 times. In 1000 simulated games, BAYLOR covered the first half line 513 times, while OKLAHOMA ST covered the first half line 487 times. *No EDGE.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--BAYLOR is 19-14 against the spread versus OKLAHOMA ST since 1997.
--OKLAHOMA ST is 24-10 straight up against BAYLOR since 1997.
--11 of 19 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1997.
--OKLAHOMA ST is 21-13 versus the first half line when playing against BAYLOR since 1997.
--9 of 18 games in this series have gone OVER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1997.
--Bears are 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
--Bears are 2-5 ATS in the last 7 meetings in Oklahoma St.
--Under is 5-2 in the last 7 meetings.
--Favorite is 11-3 ATS in the last 14 meetings.
--Home team is 15-5-1 ATS in the last 21 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--BAY is 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 vs. Big 12.
--BAY is 6-17 ATS in their last 23 Sat. games.
--Under is 4-1 in BAY last 5 Saturday games.
--OKST is 49-24-4 ATS in their last 77 home games.
--Over is 7-2 in OKST last 9 overall.
--Over is 9-3 in OKST last 12 vs. Big 12.
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#567 MEMPHIS @ #568 SMU
(TV: 2:00 PM EST, CBS Sports Network - Line: SMU -2, Total: N/A) - Memphis entered Wednesday making less than one-third of its 3-pointers on the season, but after a strong showing from long range that night, the Tigers are feeling confident in their stroke heading into Saturday's matchup at Southern Methodist. "We are a good shooting team," senior guard Joe Jackson said after the 22nd-ranked Tigers made 7-of-12 attempts from outside the arc in a 10-point win over Central Florida. "We're not the first team that shot poorly in the first half of the season and picked it up at the end of the year." Memphis is now 17-of-34 from 3-point range over its last two games and has won four in a row overall entering Saturday's contest.
The Mustangs, meanwhile, were 6-of-13 from 3-point range against South Florida on Tuesday but still came out on the wrong end of a 78-71 decision, ending their five-game winning streak. SMU leading scorer Nic Moore is one of the nation's most efficient 3-point shooters, connecting on 46.3 percent from behind the arc. The Mustangs' top two scorers - Moore (13.9) and Markus Kennedy (11.7) are both sophomores, offering a stark contrast to the Tigers, who are led by four senior guards.
•ABOUT MEMPHIS (16-4 SU, 11-6-0 ATS, 6-2 AAC): The Tigers' four senior guards all have made major contributions during the team's four-game winning streak. Joe Jackson led Memphis with 17 points against Central Florida while Michael Dixon Jr. is 13-of-21 from the floor - 7-of-11 from beyond the arc - over the last four games. Geron Johnson (9.5 points, 5.5 assists, 5.3 rebounds and 1.5 steals during the winning streak) continues to be the "glue guy" for Memphis and Chris Crawford remains deadly from long range with nine 3-pointers over the last two outings.
•ABOUT SOUTHERN METHODIST (16-5 SU, 11-6-0 ATS, 5-3 AAC): Coach Larry Brown knows basically what he is going to get from his team offensively, as the Mustangs average 71.9 points and have scored between 70-75 points in five of their last six games. Kennedy has scored in double figures in 12 straight games and has grabbed at least seven rebounds in each of those contests. Reserve forward Ben Moore has been a major factor as a freshman, shooting 72.4 percent on the season, including a sizzling 17-of-20 over his last five games.
•PREGAME NOTES: Nic Moore is an 84.6 percent free-throw shooter and is 21-of-22 over his last five games.... Ben Moore has as many double-digit scoring games (three) in the last two weeks as he had in the season's first 17 games.... Memphis F Shaq Goodwin is looking to bounce back after scoring just six points - matching his second-lowest point total of the season - against Central Florida.... The Mustangs are 28-48 versus the spread in home games when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games since 1997.... The Tigers are 25-7 against the spread versus very good defensive teams - shooting percent defense of less than 39% after 15+ games since 1997.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, SMU covered the spread 609 times, while MEMPHIS covered the spread 356 times. *EDGE against the spread =SMU. In 1000 simulated games, SMU won the game straight up 667 times, while MEMPHIS won 302 times. In 1000 simulated games, SMU covered the first half line 555 times, while MEMPHIS covered the first half line 398 times. *EDGE against first half line =SMU.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--SMU is 9-3 against the spread versus MEMPHIS since 1997.
--MEMPHIS is 10-2 straight up against SMU since 1997.
--7 of 11 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL since 1997.
--SMU is 6-5 versus the first half line when playing against MEMPHIS since 1997.
--6 of 10 games in this series have gone UNDER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1997.
--Tigers are 2-8 ATS in the last 10 meetings.
--Tigers are 0-6 ATS in the last 6 meetings in Southern Methodist.
--Under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings.
--Under is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings in Southern Methodist.
--Underdog is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings.
--Home team is 7-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--MEM is 6-0 ATS in their last 6 road games.
--MEM is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 Saturday games.
--MEM is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 vs. American Athletic Conference.
--SMU is 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games overall.
--SMU is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 vs. American Athletic Conference.
--Under is 9-3 in SMU last 12 overall.
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#575 GEORGE MASON @ #576 ST LOUIS
(TIME: 2:30 PM EST, NBC Sports Network - Line: Saint Louis -15, Total: N/A) - George Mason, still in search of its first win in Atlantic 10 play, hits the road to face No. 21 Saint Louis on Saturday afternoon. Patriots fans shouldn't hold their breath on this one. The first place Billikens, the lone remaining undefeated team in the A-10, have won 13 straight games, the sixth-longest streak in the nation, and have won 20 of their last 22 games against conference opponents.
This is the first meeting between the schools. George Mason has had a week to prepare since losing to local rival George Washington 75-69 on Saturday afternoon in what is dubbed the "Revolutionary Rivalry." Saint Louis, which is 11-1 at home this season, enters off an impressive 77-57 home victory over Richmond on Wednesday night during which the Billikens held the Spiders to a season-low 31.7 percent shooting from the field.
•ABOUT GEORGE MASON (7-13 SU, 6-11-0 ATS, 0-6 Atlantic 10): The Patriots have struggled badly in their first year in the A-10 after having unparalleled success in the Colonial Athletic Association. Guards Byron Allen (14.2 points per game) and Sherrod Wright (14) lead a veteran backcourt that also features Patrick Holloway, who ranks fifth in the A-10 in 3-point shooting (41.9). Redshirt freshman forward Jalen Jenkins, who is averaging 7.1 points and 6.5 rebounds, has won three consecutive A-10 Rookie of the Week awards.
•ABOUT SAINT LOUIS (19-2 SU, 8-10-0 ATS, 6-0 Atlantic 10): The Billikens do it with defense, leading the A-10 in scoring defense (58 points per game), field goal percentage defense (38.2) and 3-point percentage defense (27.6). "That's what we depend on, our defense," senior guard Jordair Jett told the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. "We look at it as a scoring option." Senior forward Dwayne Evans (15) leads the team in scoring and rebounding (6.3) while Jett also is averaging in double figures (12.6) and leads the team in assists (4.8) and steals (1.5).
•PREGAME NOTES: The 19-2 record matches the Billikens' best record after 21 games.... Evans, Jett and senior guard Mike McCall Jr. have all topped the 1,000-point mark in their careers.... Jenkins is averaging almost a double-double (12.5 points, 9.8 rebounds) in A-10 play.... The Patriots are 1-9 versus the spread in road games when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. > 80%) after 15 or more games since 1997.... Saint Louis is 18-4 against the spread after 2 consecutive conference games over the last two seasons, including 7-0 ATS in February games.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, SAINT LOUIS covered the spread 482 times, while GEORGE MASON covered the spread 478 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, SAINT LOUIS won the game straight up 870 times, while GEORGE MASON won 119 times. In 1000 simulated games, GEORGE MASON covered the first half line 569 times, while SAINT LOUIS covered the first half line 431 times. *EDGE against first half line =GEORGE MASON.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
All games in this series since 1997: There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
•RECENT TRENDS
--GMU is 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games overall.
--Over is 15-5 in GMU last 20 road games.
--Over is 35-17-1 in GMU last 53 Sat. games.
--SLU is 11-4 ATS in their last 15 Sat. games.
--Under is 18-7-1 in SLU last 26 overall.
--Under is 8-2 in SLU last 10 vs. Atlantic 10.
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#577 MICHIGAN ST @ #578 GEORGETOWN
(TV: 3:00 PM EST, Fox Sports 1 - Line: Michigan State -7.5, Total: N/A) - Michigan State looks to follow up a big road win in conference play when it steps out of the Big Ten to square off with struggling Georgetown at Madison Square Garden on Saturday. The Spartans rebounded from their first league loss last weekend by claiming a 71-69 overtime win at Iowa on Tuesday, improving to 10-0 in games played either on the road or at a neutral site. Keith Appling led the way with 16 points for Michigan State, which may be playing its last game before senior big man Adreian Payne returns from a foot injury.
A dismal slide for the Hoyas continued with a 65-60 loss at home to No. 9 Villanova on Monday, which saw Georgetown lose another player to suspension in the form of center Moses Ayegba, who was banned one game for an NCAA violation. The Hoyas, already without suspended Josh Smith for the rest of the season, welcomed back swingman Jabril Trawick after he missed five games with a broken jaw. Trawick contributed three points in 12 minutes for Georgetown, which has lost five straight to match its longest slide under head coach John Thompson III.
•ABOUT MICHIGAN STATE (19-2 SU, 11-7-2 ATS): Without Payne and fellow big man Branden Dawson, who is out for several more games with a broken hand, the Spartans have given increased minutes to forward Matt Costello and the results have been positive. Costello posted career highs in both points (11) and rebounds (12) in the win at Iowa while recording two more blocked shots to bump his average to 1.6 per game -- eighth in the Big Ten entering Thursday. Ten of Costello's 21 rebounds over the last three games have come on the offensive end, an area where both Payne and Dawson have been missed.
•ABOUT GEORGETOWN (11-9 SU, 8-11-0 ATS): As the personnel changes have rocked the Hoyas in recent days, senior guard Markel Starks has done his best to shoulder the load, averaging 23 points over the last three games while ranking third in minutes played during Big East games (38.9). Starks has also helped pick up the slack for leading scorer D'Vauntes Smith-Rivera, who has been in a bit of a slump. Smith-Rivera missed all six of his 3-pointers in being held to eight points against Villanova and is just 8-for-28 from the floor in his last two games.
•PREGAME NOTES: Hoyas F Reggie Cameron is averaging 8.7 points in his last six games after averaging 2.8 in his previous 14.... Michigan State leading scorer G Gary Harris was held to a season-low nine points versus Iowa.... The only prior meeting between the teams was in the 1986 NCAA Tournament, with the Spartans posting an 80-68 win behind 24 points from Scott Skiles.... The Spartans are 6-0 versus the spread in road games versus good defensive teams - shooting percent defense of less than 42% this season.... Georgetown is 6-0 against the spread in February games over the last two seasons.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, MICHIGAN ST covered the spread 564 times, while GEORGETOWN covered the spread 436 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, MICHIGAN ST won the game straight up 767 times, while GEORGETOWN won 209 times. In 1000 simulated games, MICHIGAN ST covered the first half line 514 times, while GEORGETOWN covered the first half line 443 times. *No EDGE.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
All games in this series since 1997: There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
•RECENT TRENDS
--MSU is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 vs. Big East.
--MSU is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 Saturday games.
--MSU is 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games overall.
--Under is 6-2 in GTWN last 8 vs. Big Ten.
--Over is 4-1 in GTWN last 5 neutral site games.
--Over is 8-3 in GTWN last 11 non-conference games.
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#581 EVANSVILLE @ #582 WICHITA ST
(TV: 3:00 PM EST, ESPNU - Line: Wichita State -20, Total: N/A) - Third-ranked Wichita State experienced some issues during its last game but shouldn’t lack for motivation when it hosts Evansville in Saturday’s Missouri Valley Conference contest. The Purple Aces swept the two games against the Shockers last season and have a virtual scoring machine in sophomore guard D.J. Balentine. Wichita State’s 57-45 victory over Loyola (Ill.) on Tuesday was uninspiring and prompted coach Gregg Marshall to term the final 20 minutes as “a painful second half.”
The Shockers possess the nation’s longest winning streak at 22 games and also are 12-0 at home. Focus was a problem after building a 22-point lead against Loyola and point guard Fred VanVleet admitted that the players are already anticipating they will go unbeaten through Missouri Valley play. Balentine scored a career-best 43 points in Evansville’s loss to Northern Iowa on Wednesday and has tallied 29 or more points on seven occasions this season.
•ABOUT EVANSVILLE (10-12 SU, 8-8-1 ATS, 3-6 Missouri Valley): Balentine, who has made 31-of-33 free throws over the last two games, leads the conference with a 23-point scoring average and has taken more than twice as many shots as any other player on the team. He has scored at least 20 points 15 times and also leads the team in assists (4.2) and 3-pointers made (51). Guard Blake Simmons averages 9.2 points and center Egidijus Mockevicius scores 8.9 per game while leading the squad in both rebounding (7.8) and blocked shots (35).
•ABOUT WICHITA STATE (22-0 SU, 14-4-1 ATS, 9-0 Missouri Valley): The subpar showing against Chicago-based Loyola included 6-of-26 shooting in the second half that erased the joy over a well-played opening 20 minutes. “That was an endless string of gaffes,” said Marshall, whose fury reached its highest level when the Ramblers crept within nine late in the contest. Forward Cleanthony Early scored 23 points to raise his season average to 16.1 and is joined in double digits by guard Ron Baker (13.4) and VanVleet (12.8).
•PREGAME NOTES: Evansville was the most-recent team to win on Wichita State’s home floor, posting a 59-56 victory last Feb. 27 to complete the season sweep.... The Shockers allow 59 points per game and have held 10 opponents under 60.... The Aces are just 2-8 on the road this season.... Wichita State is 12-4 versus the spread versus good shooting teams - making more than 45% of their shots after 15+ games over the last two seasons.... Evansville is 13-2 against the spread versus good free throw shooting teams - making more than 72% of their attempts after 15+ games over the last three seasons.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, EVANSVILLE covered the spread 569 times, while WICHITA ST covered the spread 398 times. *EDGE against the spread =EVANSVILLE. In 1000 simulated games, WICHITA ST won the game straight up 917 times, while EVANSVILLE won 78 times. In 1000 simulated games, EVANSVILLE covered the first half line 605 times, while WICHITA ST covered the first half line 345 times. *EDGE against first half line =EVANSVILLE.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--EVANSVILLE is 20-12 against the spread versus WICHITA ST since 1997.
--WICHITA ST is 20-13 straight up against EVANSVILLE since 1997.
--8 of 16 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1997.
--WICHITA ST is 18-15 versus the first half line when playing against EVANSVILLE since 1997.
--12 of 15 games in this series have gone UNDER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1997.
--Purple Aces are 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
--Purple Aces are 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings in Wichita St.
--Over is 5-2 in the last 7 meetings.
--Underdog is 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--EVAN is 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall.
--Over is 4-1 in EVAN last 5 road games.
--Under is 5-2 in EVAN last 7 games following a S.U. loss.
--WICH is 7-2 ATS in their last 9 Sat. games.
--Over is 9-3 in WICH last 12 Sat. games.
--Under is 36-16 in WICH last 52 home games.
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#599 TEXAS A&M @ #600 FLORIDA
(TV: 4:00 PM EST, SEC TV, ESPN3 - Line: Florida -17.5, Total: N/A) - A stifling defense and balanced scoring has been the main recipe as fourth-ranked Florida continues to build on two historic runs for the program. The Gators look for their 13th straight victory and can extend a school-record winning streak at home to 27 games when struggling Texas A&M pays a visit on Saturday afternoon. The Aggies began the SEC season with three victories before dropping the last four by an average of 16.3 points, starting with an overtime defeat at Mississippi State.
Florida boasts five players averaging in double figures scoring and its defense has yielded only 58.5 points and 39 percent shooting. “We can’t always control the ball going in the basket,” Florida center Patric Young told reporters after the 62-51 victory over Mississippi State on Thursday. “But we can control our energy on the defensive end.” The Aggies stand second in the SEC behind the Gators in scoring defense, allowing only 63 points per contest.
•ABOUT TEXAS A&M (12-8 SU, 6-8-0 ATS, 3-4 SEC): The Aggies have put up 55 points or less in the last three games after averaging 67.2 over the previous five and shot only 35.6 percent in the 80-52 loss at South Carolina on Wednesday. Jamal Jones is the only player scoring in double figures at 11.7 per game and Alex Caruso is third at 8.9 while leading the SEC in assists (4.7). Forward Kourtney Roberson has scored in double figures only once in the last 10 games after averaging 13.4 the first 10 games of the season.
•ABOUT FLORIDA (18-2 SU, 8-7-1 ATS, 7-0 SEC): A quartet of key players have missed games this season and all of them have been in the lineup the last four games – three on the road -- as the Gators won by 12.5 per contest. Casey Prather shoots 62.6 percent from the field and averages 16.7 points to lead the way while Scottie Wilbekin and Michael Frazier II each chip in at 12.2 per game. Dorian Finney-Smith, who leads the team in rebounding (7.8), and Young have also combined for 21 points per contest inside.
•PREGAME NOTES: Florida is 8-2 in games decided by single digits this season after going 0-6 in such contests during the 2012-13 campaign.... Texas A&M made only 16-of-29 free throws Wednesday and stands last in the SEC at 64.9 percent for the season.... Gators highly-touted 6-11 F/C Chris Walker is expected to make his debut Tuesday against Missouri after the NCAA completed its investigation involving improper benefits. Walker must serve 80 hours of community service for benefits received and donate the $270 he got from agents to charity.... The Gators are 18-5 versus the spread in home games when playing with one or less days rest since 1997.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, TEXAS A&M covered the spread 559 times, while FLORIDA covered the spread 441 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, FLORIDA won the game straight up 872 times, while TEXAS A&M won 113 times. In 1000 simulated games, TEXAS A&M covered the first half line 617 times, while FLORIDA covered the first half line 343 times. *EDGE against first half line =TEXAS A&M.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--FLORIDA is 2-0 against the spread versus TEXAS A&M since 1997.
--FLORIDA is 2-0 straight up against TEXAS A&M since 1997.
--1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1997.
--FLORIDA is 2-0 versus the first half line when playing against TEXAS A&M since 1997.
--1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1997.
•RECENT TRENDS
--TAM is 3-7 ATS in their last 10 Sat. games.
--Under is 8-3 in TAM last 11 overall.
--Under is 34-16 in TAM last 50 road games.
--Under is 9-1 in FLA last 10 Sat. games.
--Under is 21-7-1 in FLA last 29 overall.
--Under is 12-3-1 in FLA last 16 vs. Southeastern.
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#601 OKLAHOMA @ #602 IOWA ST
(TV: 4:00 PM EST, ESPN3 - Line: Iowa State -8.5, Total: N/A) - A then-unranked Oklahoma team ended Iowa State’s school-record winning streak on Jan. 11 and the Cyclones have struggled to recover ever since. No. 18 Iowa State will try to avenge its first loss of the season and halt a stretch in which it has dropped four of five when it hosts the 25th-ranked Sooners on Saturday. The Cyclones opened with 14 consecutive victories, but they have only a home win against Kansas State to show for their efforts since the setback at Oklahoma.
Iowa State, which will play its fourth straight Top 25 foe on Tuesday when it travels to No. 10 Oklahoma State, fell four games back in the Big 12 race with Wednesday’s 92-81 road loss to conference-leading Kansas. The Sooners, who find themselves in second place in the league – 1 ½ games behind the Jayhawks – grabbed their fourth straight victory with Monday’s 88-76 triumph over the Cowboys. Oklahoma is 7-2 away from home, the top mark in the conference.
•ABOUT OKLAHOMA (17-4 SU, 10-8-1 ATS, 6-2 Big 12): The Sooners are the only team in the country to use the same starting lineup in every game and have all five of those players scoring at least 10 points per game. Ryan Spangler is averaging 13.2 points and 13.5 rebounds over his last six games, beginning with his 16-point, 15-rebound effort in the first meeting against Iowa State. “It is hard to find words to describe how much he has helped this team.... That was really obvious last year (when he sat out due to transfer rules). We are reaping the benefits this year,” forward Tyler Neal told the school’s official website.
•ABOUT IOWA STATE (15-4 SU, 9-8-0 ATS, 3-4 Big 12): Two common themes have emerged in the Cyclones’ four losses: below-average 3-point shooting and rebounding margin. Iowa State has converted 37.2 percent beyond the arc in its victories and enjoyed a plus-3.1 advantage on the glass in its wins, but has shot 28.4 percent from long range and been outrebounded by 7.8 boards in its setbacks. Melvin Ejim, who leads the conference with 27 career double-doubles, started his 109th game Wednesday, tying him for seventh in school history with Jeff Hornacek.
•PREGAME NOTES: Oklahoma has scored at least 80 points in 14 games, twice the number of times they accomplished the feat last season.... Ejim is 10 rebounds shy of becoming the 11th player in Big 12 history to grab 900 career rebounds.... The Sooners outscored the Cyclones 22-2 in second-chance points in the first meeting.... Iowa State is 0-6 versus the spread after two or more consecutive overs over the last two seasons.... Oklahoma is 9-2 against the spread after two straight games with 9 or less offensive rebounds over the last two seasons.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, IOWA ST covered the spread 512 times, while OKLAHOMA covered the spread 488 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, IOWA ST won the game straight up 721 times, while OKLAHOMA won 251 times. In 1000 simulated games, OKLAHOMA covered the first half line 503 times, while IOWA ST covered the first half line 446 times. *No EDGE.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--IOWA ST is 12-9 against the spread versus OKLAHOMA since 1997.
--OKLAHOMA is 14-8 straight up against IOWA ST since 1997.
--11 of 15 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1997.
--IOWA ST is 10-10 versus the first half line when playing against OKLAHOMA since 1997.
--8 of 14 games in this series have gone OVER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1997.
--Sooners are 4-9-1 ATS in the last 14 meetings.
--Sooners are 1-5-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings in Iowa St.
--Over is 9-2 in the last 11 meetings.
--Over is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings in Iowa St.
--Favorite is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
--Home team is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--OKL is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 Saturday games.
--OKL is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a ATS win.
--Under is 4-1 in OKL last 5 Saturday games.
--Over is 13-3 in ISU last 16 Sat. games.
--Over is 20-7 in ISU last 27 vs. Big 12.
--Over is 36-15-1 in ISU last 52 overall.
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#603 KANSAS @ #604 TEXAS
(TV: 4:00 PM EST, ESPN - Line: Kansas -4, Total: N/A) - Seventh-ranked Kansas aims to extend its winning streak to eight games when it visits a red-hot Texas team that is also streaking. The Longhorns bring a five-game winning streak into Saturday’s pivotal Big 12 matchup and have already matched last season’s victory total in a fine bounce-back campaign. The Jayhawks are the lone undefeated team in conference play and they have strung together three straight double-digit wins, including Wednesday’s 92-81 victory over No. 18 Iowa State.
Kansas has revved up the offense since a 61-57 loss to San Diego State on Jan. 5 by scoring 80 or more points in five of the last seven games. Freshman guard Andrew Wiggins is becoming more comfortable with the college game and has posted career-best scoring outputs (27 and 29) in each of the past two games. Texas should be the fresher squad as it hasn’t played since posting a 74-60 victory over Baylor on Jan. 25.
•ABOUT KANSAS (16-4 SU, 10-9-1 ATS, 7-0 Big 12): Wiggins is 18-of-29 shooting over the past two outings and finally displaying the ability to take over games. He struggled with the adjustment early in the season – as well as with the pressure that comes along with the hype – but is now settling in to average a team-best 16.5 points as one of four double-digit scorers. Center Joel Embiid has been the team’s top player most of the season and averages 11.4 points, a team-best 7.6 rebounds and has 54 blocks, while forward Perry Ellis averages 13.3 points and guard Wayne Selden Jr. scores 10 per game.
•ABOUT TEXAS (16-4 SU, 9-8-0 ATS, 5-2 Big 12): The Longhorns have thrived behind a balanced attack in which four players average in double digits after they were expected to experience a second straight down campaign. “I guess I went from dumb to being smarter,” coach Rick Barnes said after the Baylor victory. “The bottom line is the players. These guys have done it all year.” Forward Jonathan Holmes averages a team-best 12.9 points, following by guard Javan Felix (12.2), guard Isaiah Taylor (11.7) and center Cameron Ridley (11.2 points, 7.8 rebounds, 48 blocks).
•PREGAME NOTES: Kansas holds a 22-7 series lead but stands just 5-6 when playing at Texas.... Jayhawks PG Naadir Tharpe (9.3 points, 5.4 assist) had his first career double-double with 12 points and 12 assists against Iowa State.... The Longhorns are 14-1 when shooting a higher percentage than their opponent.... The Jayhawks are 12-4 against the spread versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 4+ points/game after 15+ games over the last two seasons.... Texas is 0-6 versus the spread in home games after one or more consecutive unders over the last two seasons.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, TEXAS covered the spread 534 times, while KANSAS covered the spread 432 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, KANSAS won the game straight up 544 times, while TEXAS won 427 times. In 1000 simulated games, TEXAS covered the first half line 532 times, while KANSAS covered the first half line 431 times. *No EDGE.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--TEXAS is 13-10 against the spread versus KANSAS since 1997.
--KANSAS is 17-6 straight up against TEXAS since 1997.
--11 of 21 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1997.
--TEXAS is 12-11 versus the first half line when playing against KANSAS since 1997.
--13 of 21 games in this series have gone OVER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1997.
--Under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings.
--Under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in Texas.
--Home team is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--KU is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 Saturday games.
--KU is 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 vs. Big 12.
--Under is 21-7-2 in KU last 30 road games.
--TEX is 3-8-1 ATS in their last 12 Sat. games.
--Over is 8-2 in TEX last 10 Sat. games.
--Over is 11-4 in TEX last 15 vs. Big 12.
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#605 VILLANOVA @ #606 TEMPLE
(TV: 4:00 PM EST, ESPN2 - Line: Villanova -11.5, Total: N/A) - Villanova looks to complete a season sweep of its Big 5 rivals when the ninth-ranked Wildcats visit Temple on Saturday. Villanova has defeated three of its Philadelphia opponents so far, knocking off Pennsylvania, Saint Joseph's and La Salle in consecutive games back in December. Those three wins came by an average of nearly 25 points and the talented Wildcats could be in line for another comfortable victory against an Owls team that already has lost three more games than it did all of last season.
The Owls snapped an eight-game losing streak with a win over Rutgers on Wednesday while the Wildcats have won the first two games of their three-game road trip against Marquette and Georgetown. With a victory against Villanova, Temple would earn a share of the city title with the Wildcats, who have the utmost respect for their Philly rival. "I have always looked at these games like Big East games," said Villanova coach Jay Wright. "It seems like another road game in a tough environment."
•ABOUT VILLANOVA (18-2 SU, 13-5-0 ATS): Since losing to Creighton by 28 points, Villanova has snuck past the Golden Eagles in overtime before holding off the Hoyas on Monday. "We haven't been pretty in either one of them," Wright said. "But we found a way." The Wildcats are one of the nation's most balanced teams, with four players averaging between 10.2 and 15.1 points, five players chipping in between 4.0 and 5.9 rebounds and eight players averaging at least one assist.
•ABOUT TEMPLE (6-13 SU, 8-8-1 ATS): Owls coach Fran Dunphy recently chatted about the importance of unselfish play with point guard Will Cummings, who responded with 21 points and eight assists against Rutgers. "We need him to be that kind of playmaker," Dunphy said after Temple notched its first win since Dec. 21. "There's opportunities to score and take it all the way to the rim, but there's also opportunities to drive and kick for some open jumpers for his teammates." One of Cummings' top options on the kick-outs is swingman Dalton Pepper (18 points per game), who has made nearly half of the Owls' 3-pointers this season.
•PREGAME NOTES: Wildcats G James Bell (15.1 points, 5.8 rebounds, 1.5 assists) and F JayVaughn Pinkston (15 points, 5.5 rebounds, 1.5 assists) have nearly identical stats across the board.... Temple F Anthony Lee has committed at least four fouls in nine of his last 12 games.... Villanova F-C Daniel Ochefu has made 18-of-21 shots over his last five outings.... The Wildcats are 20-7 against the spread versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing less than 14 turnovers/game over the last two seasons.... The Owls are 18-5 versus the spread in home games versus very good teams - outscoring their opponents by 8+ points/game after 15+ games since 1997.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, TEMPLE covered the spread 552 times, while VILLANOVA covered the spread 448 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, VILLANOVA won the game straight up 748 times, while TEMPLE won 232 times. In 1000 simulated games, TEMPLE covered the first half line 569 times, while VILLANOVA covered the first half line 431 times. *EDGE against first half line =TEMPLE.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--VILLANOVA is 10-6 against the spread versus TEMPLE since 1997.
--VILLANOVA is 10-6 straight up against TEMPLE since 1997.
--8 of 13 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1997.
--VILLANOVA is 9-7 versus the first half line when playing against TEMPLE since 1997.
--7 of 13 games in this series have gone OVER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1997.
--Wildcats are 0-4 ATS in the last 4 meetings.
--Over is 6-2 in the last 8 meetings.
--Over is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings in Temple.
--Favorite is 6-2 ATS in the last 8 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--VILL is 13-3 ATS in their last 16 Sat. games.
--VILL is 12-4 ATS in their last 16 games overall.
--Over is 7-1 in VILL last 8 road games.
--TEM is 8-1 ATS in their last 9 vs. Big East.
--TEM is 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 Sat. games.
--Over is 13-3 in TEM last 16 home games.
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#639 MASSACHUSETTS @ #640 ST JOSEPHS
(TV: 6:00 PM EST, CBS Sports Network - Line: St. Josephs -2.5, Total: N/A) - With its national ranking seemingly at stake, No.19 Massachusetts will look to put a frustrating loss behind it Saturday when the team plays at Saint Joseph's. The Minutemen lost their second straight road game Wednesday at St. Bonaventure, the type of a game they should win if they have aspirations of doing anything meaningful in March. "I think everybody can see we're not playing as well as we could be, but we're going to right the ship," head coach Derek Kellogg told the media after his team got outrebounded 45-35 and committed 17 turnovers in the loss. "We're going to play well. I don't know what that is going to lead to, but we're going to play well and play tough."
The Hawks have won five of six since losing at Massachusetts on Jan.8, and the winner of this game will remain two games behind unbeaten Saint Louis in the Atlantic 10 standings. Langston Galloway, who leads the team in scoring at 17.2 points per game, hit a 3-pointer off the glass with 1.6 seconds left to carry the Hawks to a victory over Dayton on Wednesday. "Everybody knew they wanted me to have the ball, so they ran the play for me," Galloway told the media. "I came off of that second screen, I saw my man backing up and I knew I had an inch. That's all I needed to get a shot off."
•ABOUT MASSACHUSETTS (17-3 SU, 12-8-0 ATS, 4-2 Atlantic 10): Senior point guard Chaz Williams, who struggled with foul trouble against St. Bonaventure, was the difference in the first meeting, scoring eight points in the final six minutes as the Minutemen erased a nine-point deficit. In the most recent game, Williams went 3-of-10 from the field and had 11 points and six assists, but was clearly agitated by St. Bonaventure's aggressive defense. "They did a good job on him," Kellogg said. "He did get a little frustrated. We just have to play through those bumps and grinds when we get in there. When you knock his headband off, though, I think he gets a little frazzled."
•ABOUT SAINT JOSEPH'S (14-6 SU, 8-7-1 ATS, 4-2 Atlantic 10): Halil Kanacevic had eight points and 11 rebounds against Dayton to surpass 1,000 points and 900 rebounds in his career, which included his freshman season at Hofstra. The victory was the second on the road in conference play for the Hawks, who have won five of their last six games overall. "We worked hard for 40 minutes and we worked hard for two days prior to those 40 minutes getting ready for Dayton," head coach Phil Martelli said. "Certainly, we've had them go the other way against us. Road wins are a really big deal."
•PREGAME NOTES: The 2003-04 Saint Joseph's squad, which went 27-0 in the regular season and advanced to the Elite Eight of the NCAA Tournament, will be honored prior to the game.... The Hawks will host No.21 Saint Louis on Tuesday in their only meeting of the season.... The Minutemen have won four of the last five meetings and lead the series 34-29... The Hawks are 13-29 against the spread in home games versus good 3-point shooting teams - making more than 37% of their attempts since 1997.... UMass is 6-0 versus the spread in road games versus teams who are called for 17 or less fouls/game over the last two seasons.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, MASSACHUSETTS covered the spread 565 times, while ST JOSEPHS covered the spread 435 times. *EDGE against the spread =MASSACHUSETTS. In 1000 simulated games, ST JOSEPHS won the game straight up 496 times, while MASSACHUSETTS won 467 times. In 1000 simulated games, MASSACHUSETTS covered the first half line 548 times, while ST JOSEPHS covered the first half line 452 times. *No EDGE.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--MASSACHUSETTS is 17-13 against the spread versus ST JOSEPHS since 1997.
--MASSACHUSETTS is 16-14 straight up against ST JOSEPHS since 1997.
--11 of 18 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL since 1997.
--ST JOSEPHS is 15-14 versus the first half line when playing against MASSACHUSETTS since 1997.
--10 of 19 games in this series have gone OVER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1997.
--Minutemen are 5-2 ATS in the last 7 meetings in St. Joseph's.
--Under is 5-1-1 in the last 7 meetings.
--Under is 5-1-1 in the last 7 meetings in St. Joseph's.
--Favorite is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings.
--Home team is 6-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--MASS is 10-4 ATS in their last 14 road games.
--MASS is 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games overall.
--Under is 8-2 in MASS last 10 overall.
--JOES is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 Saturday games.
--Over is 10-2 in JOES last 12 Sat. games.
--Under is 7-3-1 in JOES last 11 home games.
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#641 DUKE @ #642 SYRACUSE
(TV: 6:30 PM EST, ESPN - Line: Syracuse -2.5, Total: N/A) - As if Saturday's showdown between No. 2 Syracuse and No. 16 Duke was not being anticipated enough, the Orange will attempt to break the school record for consecutive wins to open a season when the Blue Devils come to town. In its inaugural season in the ACC, Syracuse is a perfect 20-0, matching the start by the 2011-12 squad, while Duke has won five straight games - the last four coming by at least 15 points. The game also will pit the two winningest active coaches in Division I - the Blue Devils' Mike Krzyzewski (974 wins) and Jim Boeheim of the Orange (939).
"It will be a historic game," Krzyzewski told reporters. "The fact that Jim and I, total, have won over 1,900 games, it’s never been done." Added Syracuse guard Trevor Cooney: "It's exciting, without a doubt. This will be similar to the Georgetown game last year. We just have to stay focused for the next two days and make sure we're prepared." Saturday's encounter will be just the fifth meeting and the first since 1998, when Duke defeated Syracuse in the Sweet 16.
•ABOUT DUKE (17-4 SU, 13-8-0 ATS, 6-2 ACC): Freshman sensation Jabari Parker endured an inconsistent month of January, but closed on a high note with three straight double-doubles, including 21 points and 11 rebounds in Monday's 80-65 victory over Pittsburgh. Parker is the team's leading scorer (18.8) and rebounder (8.1) while Rodney Hood (17.4 points) has emerged as a terrific complement to Parker. The wings on Syracuse's zone must keep an eye on Andre Dawkins, a 47.5 percent 3-point shooter who is 15-of-27 from long range over his last five games.
•ABOUT SYRACUSE (20-0 SU, 11-4-1 ATS, 7-0 ACC): The Orange, who hold a one-game lead over Virginia and sit 1 1/2 games up on Duke and Pittsburgh, have won 15 games by double digits. Two big reasons why are the play of freshman Tyler Ennis (12.3 points, 5.4 assists) and senior C.J. Fair (16.7 points, six rebounds), both of whom play big minutes on a nightly basis. With Jerami Grant thrust into the lineup due to injuries, Boeheim has not received much production from his bench of late, although reserve center Baye Moussa Keita delivered six points, eight rebounds and five blocks in Wednesday's 67-57 victory over Wake Forest.
•PREGAME NOTES: Fair has played 199 of 200 possible minutes over the last five games while Ennis has only sat out three minutes over the last four contests.... The Blue Devils are 14-0 when holding their opponent below 70 points.... Each of Duke's top five scorers shoots at least 76 percent from the foul line.... The Orange are 12-2 against the spread versus good free throw shooting teams - making more than 72% of their attempts over the last two seasons.... The Blue Devils are 8-2 versus the spread when playing only their 2nd game in a week, and 7-1 ATS after one or more consecutive overs this season.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, DUKE covered the spread 571 times, while SYRACUSE covered the spread 429 times. *EDGE against the spread =DUKE. In 1000 simulated games, DUKE won the game straight up 489 times, while SYRACUSE won 478 times. In 1000 simulated games, DUKE covered the first half line 556 times, while SYRACUSE covered the first half line 444 times. *No EDGE.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--SYRACUSE is 0-0 against the spread versus DUKE since 1997.
--DUKE is 1-0 straight up against SYRACUSE since 1997.
--DUKE is 1-0 versus the first half line when playing against SYRACUSE since 1997.
•RECENT TRENDS
--DUKE is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 vs. Atlantic Coast.
--DUKE is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a S.U. win.
--Over is 17-8 in DUKE last 25 Sat. games.
--SYR is 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 home games.
--SYR is 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 vs. Atlantic Coast.
--Under is 7-1 in SYR last 8 overall.
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#647 COLORADO ST @ #648 SAN DIEGO ST
(TV: 7:05 PM EST, ESPNU - Line: San Diego State -11.5, Total: N/A) - Fifth-ranked San Diego State goes after its 18th consecutive victory when it attempts to complete a season sweep of visiting Colorado State on Saturday. The Aztecs are three wins shy of matching the school-best 20-game winning streak from 2010-11 and sit atop the Mountain West by a half-game over New Mexico. Point guard Xavier Thames is leading San Diego State’s charge and scored a career-best 31 points in Saturday’s 74-69 overtime victory against Utah State.
The Rams have lost three of four games overall and are 1-5 on the road, with the lone win being a two-pointer against last-place San Jose State. Colorado State lost to the Aztecs 71-61 at home on Jan. 1 and has dropped 18 of the last 21 meetings against what is now the pre-eminent conference power. San Diego State is 7-0 in conference play for the first time in school history and is a shoo-in for its fifth consecutive NCAA Tournament appearance.
•ABOUT COLORADO STATE (12-9 SU, 3-11-1 ATS, 3-5 Mountain West): The Rams learned earlier this week that they will gain the services of Louisville transfer Chane Behanan next season and that will only make a solid rebounding club even better. Colorado State outrebounds opponents by 5.3 per game with forward J.J. Avila (18.4 points, 7.6 rebounds) and guard Daniel Bejarano (16.5 points, nine rebounds) leading the way. The 6-4 Bejarano has seven double-doubles and has collected 15 or more rebounds four times while Avila has five double-digit rebound efforts with a high of 17.
•ABOUT SAN DIEGO STATE (18-1 SU, 10-6-0 ATS, 7-0 Mountain West): Thames averages a team-high 17.6 points and has scored more than 20 points five times, including recording 23 points and matching a season best with five steals in the earlier victory over Colorado State. A suspect shooter in the past, Thames has made a career-best 39 3-pointers while shooting an impressive 45.9 percent from behind the arc. Forward Winston Shepard chips in 12.9 points per game while rebounding force Josh Davis contributes 8.9 points and 11.6 rebounds and has been in double digits on the boards in each of his last 13 games.
•PREGAME NOTES: San Diego State has won 10 consecutive home games against the Rams.... Bejarano had 22 points and eight rebounds in the first meeting.... Aztecs coach Steve Fisher is one victory away from his 300th at the school.... The Rams are 0-8 versus the spread in road games versus top caliber teams - outscoring their opponents by 12+ points/game over the last three seasons.... San Diego State is 15-6 against the spread after four straight games committing 14 or less turnovers over the last two seasons.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, COLORADO ST covered the spread 527 times, while SAN DIEGO ST covered the spread 473 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, SAN DIEGO ST won the game straight up 795 times, while COLORADO ST won 172 times. In 1000 simulated games, COLORADO ST covered the first half line 544 times, while SAN DIEGO ST covered the first half line 456 times. *No EDGE.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--SAN DIEGO ST is 17-13 against the spread versus COLORADO ST since 1997.
--SAN DIEGO ST is 23-10 straight up against COLORADO ST since 1997.
--13 of 23 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1997.
--SAN DIEGO ST is 17-15 versus the first half line when playing against COLORADO ST since 1997.
--15 of 23 games in this series have gone OVER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1997.
--Rams are 0-3-1 ATS in the last 4 meetings.
--Over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in San Diego St.
--Favorite is 3-0-1 ATS in the last 4 meetings.
--Home team is 5-2-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--CSU is 3-7 ATS in their last 10 Sat. games.
--CSU is 6-20-2 ATS in their last 28 games overall.
--Over is 15-5-1 in CSU last 21 road games.
--Under is 17-5 in SDSU last 22 overall.
--Under is 10-1 in SDSU last 11 home games.
--Under is 9-3 in SDSU last 12 vs. Mountain West.
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#659 IOWA @ #660 ILLINOIS
(TV: 7:30 PM EST, Big Ten Network - Line: Iowa -5.5, Total: N/A) - Iowa on Saturday looks to bounce back from an overtime loss to Michigan State when the 12th-ranked Hawkeyes visit Illinois, which has lost six straight. The Illini figure to have trouble keeping pace with Iowa, which leads the Big Ten in scoring at 84.5 points per game while Illinois ranks 11th at 67.5. The Hawkeyes need to be careful to avoid a letdown after losing 71-69 in overtime to Michigan State on Tuesday before a raucous home crowd.
Guard Roy Devyn Marble is averaging a team-high 17.9 points in league play for Iowa, which is 4-0 following a loss this season. The Hawkeyes boast one of the deepest teams in the nation, with 11 players averaging at least 12 minutes. Each of them should receive ample playing time against Illinois, which has reached the 70-point mark just once during its losing streak, and that came in a 95-70 setback at Wisconsin on Jan. 8.
•ABOUT IOWA (16-5, 12-7-0 ATS, 5-3 Big Ten): Coach Fran McCaffery questioned his team’s toughness after the Michigan State game as the Hawkeyes were held to 28 points in the paint. Illinois can’t match the Spartans’ physical style, so forwards Aaron White (averaging 13.5 points, 6.5 rebounds) and Melsahn Basabe (6.6 rebounds) should find the terrain a little smoother Saturday. Forward Jarrod Uthoff has been the team’s top reserve, averaging 8.9 points while shooting 53.4 percent from the field.
•ABOUT ILLINOIS (13-8, 8-8-4 ATS, 2-6 Big Ten): Drake transfer Rayvonte Rice ended an extended slump in Sunday’s 56-46 loss at Indiana by scoring 20 points on 7-of-11 shooting, including four 3-pointers. The Illini will look to slow the game down against the high-scoring Hawkeyes and hope the frontline of Jon Ekey and 6-11 center Nnanna Egwu can avoid foul trouble. Guard Joseph Bertrand (10.6 points) is seeking a bounce-back game after missing 10 of his 11 shots against the Hoosiers.
•PREGAME NOTES: Illinois leads the series 81-68, but Iowa has won two straight.... The Hawkeyes are 39-1 when holding opponents to fewer than 61 points over the last four seasons.... The Illini are 9-1 this season and 23-3 under coach John Croce when reaching the 70-point mark.... The Hawkeyes are 16-4 against the spread versus good defensive teams - allowing less than 64 points/game after 15+ games over the last two seasons.... Illinois is 8-20 versus the spread versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing less than 14 turnovers/game after 15+ games over the last three seasons.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, IOWA covered the spread 536 times, while ILLINOIS covered the spread 464 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, IOWA won the game straight up 670 times, while ILLINOIS won 301 times. In 1000 simulated games, IOWA covered the first half line 490 times, while ILLINOIS covered the first half line 461 times. *No EDGE.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--ILLINOIS is 15-12 against the spread versus IOWA since 1997.
--ILLINOIS is 19-8 straight up against IOWA since 1997.
--13 of 20 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL since 1997.
--ILLINOIS is 17-10 versus the first half line when playing against IOWA since 1997.
--11 of 21 games in this series have gone UNDER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1997.
--Hawkeyes are 2-5 ATS in the last 7 meetings.
--Under is 5-2 in the last 7 meetings.
--Favorite is 6-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings.
--Home team is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--IOWA is 8-2 ATS in their last 10 Sat. games.
--IOWA is 11-3 ATS in their last 14 vs. Big Ten.
--IOWA is 36-16 ATS in their last 52 games overall.
--ILL is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 vs. Big Ten.
--ILL is 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 Saturday games.
--Under is 4-1 in Fighting Illini last 5 vs. Big Ten.
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#683 C FLORIDA @ #684 LOUISVILLE
(TV: 9:00 PM EST, ESPNU - Line: Louisville -20.5, Total: N/A) - Louisville looks to bounce back from a close loss to Cincinnati when the No. 7-ranked Cardinals host Central Florida on Saturday. The Knights have lost five straight and will need to pick up the pace against Louisville, which leads the American Athletic Conference in scoring at 82.4 points per game. Central Florida struggled to slow down Louisville in a 90-65 loss on Dec. 31, when the Cardinals shot 54.8 percent from the field and 14-of-27 from 3-point range.
The Cardinals had their five-game winning streak snapped Thursday by the Bearcats, who led by as many as 17 points in the second half before holding on for a 69-66 win. Louisville, which was playing for the first time in eight days, fell two games behind first-place Cincinnati and lost for just the ninth time in 70 games at the KFC Yum! Center. Senior guard Russ Smith, who averages a team-high 18 points, scored 16 against Cincinnati and became the 15th player in school history to reach the 1,600-point mark.
•ABOUT CENTRAL FLORIDA (9-9 SU, 2-10-0 ATS, 1-6 American Athletic Conference): The Knights are coming off an encouraging 69-59 loss to No. 22 Memphis on Wednesday, when senior guard Isaiah Sykes collected 24 points, 12 rebounds and five assists. Sykes, who scored 19 points against Louisville in the first meeting, is the only AAC player in the top 15 in the league in scoring, rebounding, assists, steals and field-goal percentage. Guard Calvin Newell is the team’s second-leading scorer at 11.6 points per game, but he missed all 11 of his shots from the field against Memphis, including 0-for-7 from beyond the arc.
•ABOUT LOUISVILLE (17-4 SU, 10-9-0 ATS, 6-2 American Athletic Conference): Point guard Chris Jones returned against Cincinnati after missing three games with an oblique injury and scored six points off the bench on 3-of-11 shooting. Freshman Terry Rozier started for the fourth straight game in place of Jones and had 10 points and zero assists in 22 minutes, but Jones is expected to return to the starting lineup as early as Saturday. The Cardinals received another strong performance from forward Montrezl Harrell, who scored 18 points and has four double-doubles in his last six games.
•PREGAME NOTES: Louisville is 36-9 in the month of February since the 2007-08 season.... Central Florida leads the AAC in rebounding at 39.7 per game.... Smith was 6-of-10 from 3-point range and finished with a game-high 24 points against Central Florida earlier this season.... The Knights are 1-7 against the spread versus good ball handling teams - committing less than 14 turnovers/game this season.... The Cardinals are 4-15 versus the spread in home games after playing four consecutive games as favorite over the last three seasons.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, LOUISVILLE covered the spread 526 times, while UCF covered the spread 474 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, LOUISVILLE won the game straight up 948 times, while UCF won 44 times. In 1000 simulated games, UCF covered the first half line 562 times, while LOUISVILLE covered the first half line 438 times. *No EDGE.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--LOUISVILLE is 1-0 against the spread versus UCF since 1997.
--LOUISVILLE is 2-0 straight up against UCF since 1997.
--1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1997.
--LOUISVILLE is 1-0 versus the first half line when playing against UCF since 1997.
--1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1997.
•RECENT TRENDS
--UCF is 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 Saturday games.
--UCF is0-7 ATS in their last 7 vs. American Athletic Conference.
--Over is 9-3 in UCF last 12 Sat. games.
--Over is 20-7 in LOU last 27 overall.
--Over is 17-5 in LOU last 22 home games.
--Over is 16-5 in LOU last 21 Sat. games.
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#689 GONZAGA @ #690 SAN FRANCISCO
(TV: 10:00 PM EST, ROOT - Line: Gonzaga -6, Total: N/A) - No. 24 Gonzaga continues to stretch its lead in the West Coast Conference but things haven't come easy for the Bulldogs as of late. After surviving yet another scare at Santa Clara on Wednesday, Gonzaga looks for its sixth straight win when it visits San Francisco on Saturday night. The Bulldogs, who have won two of their past three games by a combined five points, could open up a commanding three-game lead in the conference with a victory.
San Francisco has won three straight - all at home - to move into second place in the WCC. The Dons, who have beaten the Bulldogs in three of their last four games at San Francisco, were hammered at Gonzaga 69-41 earlier in the season. San Francisco shot just 25.5 percent from the field in the game, scoring by far its fewest points of the season.
•ABOUT GONZAGA (19-3 SU, 10-9-1 ATS, 9-1 WCC): The Bulldogs blew a 10-point lead in the game's final minutes before Sam Dower rescued them with a 3-pointer with two seconds to play to give them a 54-52 win at Santa Clara. Dower had taken just nine 3-pointers before hitting the game-winner for the Bulldogs, who scored a season-low 54 points. Gonzaga rolled over San Francisco earlier in the season despite missing starters Dower and Gary Bell Jr.
•ABOUT SAN FRANCISCO (14-8 SU, 10-9-0 ATS, 7-3 WCC): San Francisco never trailed in knocking off Portland last time out to complete a season sweep of the Pilots. Portland is the only conference team to beat Gonzaga this season. Saturday's game wraps up a five-game homestand for the Dons, who are 11-4 on their home court.
•PREGAME NOTES: Gonzaga needed overtime to win at San Francisco last season.... Bulldogs G Kevin Pangos made just one field goal last game and didn't attempt a 3-pointer for the first time this season.... Gonzaga shot just 34 percent from the field last game and slipped to third in the nation in shooting at 50.8 percent.... San Francisco is 6-0 versus the spread in home games versus good 3-point shooting teams - making more than 37% of their attempts over the last two seasons.... Gonzaga is 3-11 against the spread in road games off three straight wins against conference rivals over the last three seasons.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, GONZAGA covered the spread 500 times, while SAN FRANCISCO covered the spread 475 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, GONZAGA won the game straight up 684 times, while SAN FRANCISCO won 285 times. In 1000 simulated games, GONZAGA covered the first half line 515 times, while SAN FRANCISCO covered the first half line 445 times. *No EDGE.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--SAN FRANCISCO is 18-17 against the spread versus GONZAGA since 1997.
--GONZAGA is 30-5 straight up against SAN FRANCISCO since 1997.
--12 of 20 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL since 1997.
--GONZAGA is 17-16 versus the first half line when playing against SAN FRANCISCO since 1997.
--11 of 19 games in this series have gone OVER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1997.
--Bulldogs are 1-5 ATS in the last 6 meetings.
--Bulldogs are 0-5 ATS in the last 5 meetings in San Francisco.
--Under is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings.
--Over is 6-2 in the last 8 meetings in San Francisco.
--Underdog is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--Under is 11-3 in GONZ last 14 road games.
--Under is 34-14-3 in GONZ last 51 Sat. games.
--Under is 40-14-1 in GONZ last 55 vs. West Coast.
--SF is 10-4 ATS in their last 14 Sat. games.
--SF is 51-21 ATS in their last 72 vs. West Coast.
--SF is 41-20-1 ATS in their last 62 games overall.
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#693 ARIZONA @ #694 CALIFORNIA
(TV: 10:30 PM EST, Pac-12 Network - Line: Arizona -4, Total: N/A) - A major hurdle in Arizona’s bid for an unbeaten regular season awaits Saturday night when the top-ranked Wildcats travel to California for a Pac-12 showdown. The Golden Bears are 10-1 at home following their overtime loss Wednesday against Arizona State, while Arizona escaped with a three-point win the same evening at Stanford, extending its program-record winning streak to 21 games. The Wildcats are one of three unbeaten teams in Division I along with No. 2 Syracuse and No. 3 Wichita State.
While the perfect record could be in jeopardy, Arizona appears in good shape to capture just its second regular-season conference title in the last nine years. The Wildcats would have to lose three of their final 10 games for a team to overtake them in the standings. Arizona has two games left against California and one against Arizona State, the only remaining opponents currently with winning records in conference play.
•ABOUT ARIZONA (21-0 SU, 13-7-0 ATS, 8-0 Pac-12): A key for the Wildcats will be how well their frontcourt can hold up against California, which features one of the top rebounders in the Pac-12 in Richard Solomon as well as a solid sidekick in David Kravish. Aaron Gordon will have to play as big as he did Sunday against Utah, when the 6-9 freshman produced 10 points and 12 rebounds in the nine-point victory. Gordon could used some help inside from sophomoore Kaleb Tarczewski, the 7-foot center for Arizona who hasn’t reached double figures in rebounds since late November.
•ABOUT CALIFORNIA (14-7 SU, 10-10-0 ATS, 5-3 Pac-12): Solomon and Kravish should do their part on the glass, leaving it up to Justin Cobbs and Tyrone Wallace to continue stepping up offensively. Cobbs scored 21 points against Arizona State and, in the process, moved past three former Golden Bears to No. 19 on the program’s all-time scoring list. Wallace matched his career high with 20 points against the Sun Devils, a nice bounce-back effort after his 0-for-8 shooting performance in Sunday’s loss to UCLA.
•PREGAME NOTES: Arizona has won the rebounding battle in 18 of 21 games, but came up on the short end against Stanford.... Solomon has grabbed 40 rebounds in the last three games and 61 over the last five.... Solomon, Kravish and Wallace each average 11.6 points for the Golden Bears.... Cal is 10-1 against the spread versus good defensive teams - allowing less than 64 points/game after 15+ games over the last two seasons.... The Wildcats are 7-0 versus the spread after a game forcing opponent to commit eight or less turnovers over the last three seasons.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, ARIZONA covered the spread 526 times, while CALIFORNIA covered the spread 440 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, ARIZONA won the game straight up 646 times, while CALIFORNIA won 324 times. In 1000 simulated games, ARIZONA covered the first half line 506 times, while CALIFORNIA covered the first half line 446 times. *No EDGE.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--CALIFORNIA is 16-15 against the spread versus ARIZONA since 1997.
--ARIZONA is 25-7 straight up against CALIFORNIA since 1997.
--19 of 24 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1997.
--ARIZONA is 18-13 versus the first half line when playing against CALIFORNIA since 1997.
--17 of 24 games in this series have gone OVER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1997.
--Wildcats are 1-3-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
--Over is 18-5 in the last 23 meetings.
--Over is 9-2 in the last 11 meetings in California.
--Underdog is 3-0-1 ATS in the last 4 meetings.
--Road team is 3-0-1 ATS in the last 4 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--ARIZ is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 Sat. games.
--ARIZ is 16-7 ATS in their last 23 games overall.
--Under is 25-5 in ARIZ last 30 Sat. games.
--CAL is 26-9-1 ATS in their last 36 Sat. games.
--CAL is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a ATS loss.
--Under is 12-5 in CAL last 17 games following a ATS loss.
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