ERockMoney MMA/Boxing Outlook

I'm going to be dipping back into the world of MMA/Boxing from a gambling perspective. I posted regularly at the RX around the early 100's and another site previously. Starting small, as I haven't been as involved with the sport of late.

Renan Barao (-330) v Urijah Faber (+300)

Suggested probability: 76.4%/25.0%
No vig probability: 75.4%/24.6%
True odds: -307/+307

Barao (31-1):
L5: 5-0
Wins: Wineland TKO-2, McDonald Sub-4, Faber UDec, Jorgenson UDec, Pickett Sub-1

Faber (30-6):
L5: 4-1
Wins: McDonald Sub-2, Alcantara UDec, Jorgensen Sub-4, Menjivar Sub-1
Losses: Barao UDec

Projected line: Barao -235

PLAY: Faber +300 (0.5 unit to win 1.50)

I couldn’t pass the +300 up for Faber, Barao is a beast, but this line is a bit inflated IMO. At +300, the dog only needs to win 25.1% of the time to turn a profit. I’m not a huge Faber fan, but he has impressed me of late and like the way he looks since Ludwig entered the mix at Team Alpha Male.


Ali Bagautinov (-140) v. John Lineker (+130)

Suggested probability: 58.3%/43.5%
No vig probability: 57.3%/42.7%
True odds: -134/+134

Bagautinov (12-2):
L5: 2-0 (in UFC)
Wins: Elliot UDec, Pancini TKO-3

Lineker (23-6):
L5: 4-1
Wins: Harris KO-1, Tome TKO-2, Gashimov TKO-2, Urushitani UDec
Losses: Gaudinot Sub-2

Projected line: Lineker -140
PLAY: Lineker +130 (0.5 unit to win 0.65)

Lineker missed weight and seemed to set off a torrent of action fading him. I can see it, as it shows poorly to miss weight in such a critical fight in his career. I still like him to take down the touted Russian, especially at this price.


Jamie Varner (-115) v. Abel Trujillo (+105)

Suggested probability: 53.5%/48.8%
No vig probability: 52.3%/47.7%
True odds: -110/+110

Varner (21-8-1):
L5: 2-2 (in UFC)
Wins: Guillard SDec, Barboza TKO-1
Losses: Tibau SDec, Lauzon Sub-3

Trujillo (11-5):
L5: 1-1
Wins: Bowling TKO-2
Losses: Nurmagomedov UDec

Projected line: Varner -155
PLAY: Varner -115 (0.575 unit to win 0.50)

There have been some questions regarding Varner’s health and his camp, which has led to this line to plummet. I don’t see it, Varner is a huge step up for Trujillo and the crafty vet should be able to survive Trujillo’s initial onslaught and take control as the fight goes on, unless the injury concerns are more than expected.

John Makdessi (-120) v. Alan Patrick (+110)

Suggested probability: 54.5%/47.6%
No vig probability: 53.4%/46.6%
True odds: -115/+115

Makdessi (12-2):
L5: 3-2
Wins: Forte KO-1, Cruickshank UDec, Stout UDec
Losses: Njokuani UDec, Hallman Sub-1

Patrick (11-0):
L5: 1-0
Wins: Whiteley TKO-1

Projected line: Patrick -115
PLAY: Patrick +110 (0.50 unit to win 0.55)

I like Patrick, but am not fully sold on him entering the UFC (second fight). However, I’m not real high on Makdessi, so I’m going against my usual and backing the newer face whose line has been dropping rapidly.

Early thoughts:

I was on Patrick, but he looked horrific, fortunately he was facing Makdessi who did virtually nothing. My thoughts on Makdessi being vastly overrated have further been confirmed, but future mental note – anyone with a pulse and some takedown defense should destroy Patrick.

Hell of a fight as fan between Varner and Trujillo, but I would suspect Trujillo is going to get mauled as he moves up the ranks unless he tightens his game. If a veteran like Varner doesn’t get pulled into that game he likes wins rather easily.

I was very impressed by Bagautinov, I think I certainly underestimated his ability. He had a tough task going against a monster like Lineker. That guy cracks me up, he seems to lack focus and discipline, yet he is gifted with outrageous power. Ali destroyed Lineker in the 1[SUP]st[/SUP] and seemed headed that way in the second until Lineker landed a few body shots and took the gas from Ali. He bounced back well in the third and was really impressive IMO.

Actually, the only thing Makdessi did do was stuff take downs fairly well. 11 of 12 TDD is rather impressive. I guess he just didn't have a pulse. Ali is tough. Flyweight has incredible talent ATM on the rise. Someone will get Mighty Mouse. I think I know who...haha Enjoy the fights. Good to see some more people posting down here.

MattyMatt said:

Actually, the only thing Makdessi did do was stuff take downs fairly well. 11 of 12 TDD is rather impressive. I guess he just didn't have a pulse. Ali is tough. Flyweight has incredible talent ATM on the rise. Someone will get Mighty Mouse. I think I know who...haha Enjoy the fights. Good to see some more people posting down here.

Click to expand...

I agree - Makdessi was strong on on TD defense. Wow, Barao looked impressive. Faber looked very calm early in that fight, much more composed on the feet than last time and BOOM, there it is.

Aldo and Barao are just in a league of their own, sir. Only 27 and 26 too. Ridiculous to watch.

1-3, -1.025

Pretty solid night of fights.

Hope everyone cashed.....

UFN 36

0.5 Mousasi +200
0.5 Reis +185

Mousasi underpriced here IMO - should be a small dog in this one and has a real chance to win.

GL to all.

I agree on Mousasi. Good luck to us, and enjoy the fights!

UFC 170

0.5 Maia +275
0.5 Thompson -115
0.5 Pyle by TKO/KO +170

GL to all.

Good luck tonight ERock. I see value in Maia at +275 as well. He may be able to smother Ares and grind out a decision.

Nice to see you on The Wonderboy. That is actually my former Kickboxing coach, and the gym is 2 miles from my house. This fight could be the best of the night.

Enjoy the night, sir.

who is the wonderboy and is he worth a bet?

drpugilist said:

who is the wonderboy and is he worth a bet?

Click to expand...

Stephen Thompson. This fight should be a stand up war. Whitakker is a TUF Winner with excellent striking as well. He has been training with TriStar and GSP, somewhere Wonderboy has spent time also. Thompson should win this fight, but I have to be honest and admit my heart is definitely in this one also, so I can't recommend you to pull the trigger based on any value alone. This should be one hell of a fight and display of fancy footwork and hands. Thompson may shock the world and go to the ground...shhhh

Good night ERock! Glad to see Thompson get the KO!

I haven't had a ton of time lately to devote to this, but I played these three tonight.

0.5 Ellenberger +180
0.5 Rivera +145
0.5 Krause +167

Best of luck with your action.

Continued success.

-1.340

UFC 188

1.0 Alvarez +130
0.3 Velasquez wins in first round +325

Best of luck with your action.

-0.340

UFC Fight Night 70:

0.5 Romero +160
0.5 Ponzinibbio +162
0.5 Gordon +154

Machida may be done while line represents name recognition. Larkin and Carlos Junior are massively overvalued IMO, but just not sure how much Ponzinibbio and Gordon bring to the table, hence the half unit play.

-0.540

UFC 189:

0.5 Mendes +165
0.3 Mendes by decision +400
0.5 Pendred -110
0.3 Garcia wins in Rd 1 +165
0.3 Cedeno wins by TKO/KO +210
0.2 Cedeno wins in Rd 1 +375

Quite a bit of value on the underrated Mendes this evening. He's a tough disciplined fighter who can get McGregor down a grind a decision if he can weather the early storm. A bit more smoke than fire behind McGregor in my eyes and the marketing machine continues to churn.

Howard has been unimpressive and his days may be numbered, this straight fade at the short price.

I just don't see anyway Garcia and Cedeno don't destroy Swick and Pfister, but maybe I'm be drawn in a bit here.

That didn't go as planned....onto the next one. How about Robbie Lawler, unreal. I remember being in attendance when Evan Turner destroyed him eleven years ago and thought his career may be in trouble, I guess not.

-2.640

UFC 190:

1.0 Lil Nog +185
0.5 Big Nog +155
0.5 Silva +185
0.5 Bruno +165

Riding some old heads who have been poor of late and could be approaching the end quite rapidly, could be a costly strategy.

Best of luck with your action.

Good call on Silva. Better night of fights than I anticipated. Whew, that was a tiring fight card.