[h=1](I have no opinion on this article and only posting for others to read as it's pay-material)
Super Bowl XLVIII betting guide[/h][h=3]Insight from Vegas wiseguys on the game, total and prop bets[/h]By Dave Tuley | ESPN Insider
LAS VEGAS -- When my "Opening Line" column was posted on Insider a week ago Monday, one of my readers, Herc Strizzo, wrote in the comments section what I'm sure many were thinking: "Spoiler alert, Tuley bets the underdog."
As it turns out, he's correct as the Seattle Seahawks are my pick to win Super Bowl XLVIII over the Denver Broncos. But the truth is that even before the opener was posted, I knew I was going to be on the Seahawks. Now, I know the true professionals will tell you that you should only bet when you feel you have an edge, and it's OK to pass even if it's the Super Bowl, but even though the Broncos opened as a short underdog here in Vegas, I knew I wasn't going to like them in this matchup. Plus, I do have too much degenerate left in me to actually pass on the Super Bowl, so I was prepared to make the Seahawks my pick (though I probably would have gone with a short money line play of minus-120 to minus-130 as opposed to laying any points).
Thankfully the early bettors turned the Broncos into the favorite and I'm comfortably back on the underdog.
However, the Super Bowl is more than just picking the winner, so I'll do my regular breakdown of what the public and the wiseguys are thinking about the game and then I'll give my "take." This betting guide also will include input from other handicappers on the game, total and the best prop bets to bet on.
Some years I've been able to win money on Super Sunday even when my main point-spread pick has lost (such as when Devin Hester paid off at 30-1 to score the first TD in Super Bowl XLI and guarantee a winning day even if the Bears didn't cover -- and they didn't), but also have cut into my winnings when I did have the right side.
Enjoy the game and good luck, as always.
Playoff record: 3-3-1 ATS | Regular season: 55-62-3 (47 percent) ATS
Note: Public Consensus Pick percentages from ESPN Insider's PickCenter as of Thursday morning.
<CENTER>[h=3]Matchup: Seattle Seahawks at Denver Broncos[/h]
Spread: Broncos minus-2.5
Public consensus pick: 72 percent picked Broncos
</CENTER>
Public perception: The wiseguys are given most of the credit for betting the Broncos from an opening underdog to favoritism, but the general public that also bet early was all over the Broncos, too. While the wiseguys have slowed down, the public consensus number at Insider's PickCenter and other bet-tracking sites have continued to show more than 70 percent of the action coming in on the Broncos. Peyton Manning is obviously a big part of Denver's appeal (the public rarely fades him) and they've been rewarded, as the Broncos are 11-7 ATS on the year (though the Seahawks certainly have their supporters and are an NFL-best 12-6 ATS).
Wiseguys' view: As stated previously, the sharps were on the Broncos early. Some of them probably thought Manning & Co. should be favored all along, while the rest of the movement came as part of the snowball effect. It gained momentum and other wiseguys jumped in along the way as it became more and more likely that they could buy back some on the Seahawks plus-3 at some point if they wanted. The line has gone that high a few times at a few books, but many industry insiders think it'll get pushed there for sure by Sunday. Regardless, the Seahawks also will be a popular teaser play, as you can get them over a touchdown.
Tuley's Take: <OFFER>I have no fear of fading Manning in big games, many times with success (such as Super Bowl XLIV with the Saints), plenty of times without, such as in the AFC title game against the Patriots. But the Seahawks' top-ranked defense gives me the confidence to go against him again. I'm sure you've all heard the stat that there have been four times where the No. 1 offense has faced the No. 1 defense and that the top defense is 3-1 so far, though what's not mentioned as often is it was Manning's Colts that defeated the Bears as the lone exception. Still, I also have more faith in Russell Wilson than Rex Grossman. Manning hasn't been sacked yet this postseason, but I expect that to change or at least the Seahawks' pass rush to pressure him into mistakes. I'm not counting on the weather to have a major impact on the game, but any conditions that are less than ideal can only help Seattle's cause.</OFFER>
The pick: Seahawks
Wunderdog says: "One reason the public is betting Denver is that they love offense and they know and admire Manning. Wilson is not a household name among non-NFL fans. The reason why the line could very well continue to move is that, unlike regular-season NFL games, the line moves in the Super Bowl are driven by the public. The amount of public money dwarfs sharp money in this game. And this effect only intensifies the closer you get to Super Bowl Sunday.
"My computer matchup for this game (not an official pick) has Seattle winning a very close game. The Seahawks offense ranked eighth in points scored this season, averaging 25.7 points per game. They ranked third in the league in rushing yards per game behind the power running game of Marshawn Lynch. Wilson quietly put up great numbers and that was without the services of Percy Harvin, Seattle's most explosive receiver, who will be back for this game. When facing defenses similar to Denver's this season, the Seahawks averaged 24.5 points per game.
"Denver set an NFL record for most points per game this season, but in their last four games (coinciding with improved defense on their part), the Broncos have averaged 30.3 per game -- a big number, but not the world-beating numbers they were putting up earlier.
"So why do we see the dip? I believe it's partly due to a conscious choice by John Fox to slow the game down. He knows that to win in the playoffs he needs to control the clock more and give his defense more rest. To get better defense, he has sacrificed offense. This has worked in the playoffs and as a result, I think he will continue with that strategy here.
"In the end this game looks like a pick 'em type of game -- one that either team can win. If you can get plus-3 or better on either team there is some value. Otherwise, pass."
The pick: Seahawks (if the line gets to plus-3)
[h=3]Over/under: 47[/h]
Tuley's Take: The total points are lower than we usually see in Super Bowls, where the long timeouts often help the offenses set up big plays. However, the colder conditions and the Seahawks' No. 1-ranked defense (as well as the Seahawks staying under in seven straight games and the Broncos also having a five-game under streak) have ensured this number stays low. While I do think that a low-scoring game works in the Seahawks' favor, I can see them winning a shootout (with their defense getting one more stop, or a pick-six to really turn the game around while pushing the score higher), so I'll pass on the total.
The pick: Pass
PJ Walsh of Sports Insights says: "The Super bowl betting market sees a huge influx of money on the spread and over/under (O/U) from those not necessarily interested in value, but betting to have something to root for between commercials. In scenarios like these, bets are often driven by mainstream media coverage and this week's overemphasis of weather is having a significant effect on O/U betting.
"As of Tuesday morning, 60 percent of O/U bets are on the under for Super Bowl XLVIII. While this doesn't seem overly one-sided, the fact that the public is on the under at all is quite a surprise. Historically, recreational bettors favor overs because, frankly, rooting for an exciting game with lots of scoring is more entertaining than hoping for a game full of three-and-outs and field goals.
"According to our Bet Labs data analysis software, only 100 regular-season games have closed with 60 percent or more of O/U bets on the under since 2003. That breaks down to only 3.6 percent of all games. Furthermore, only one playoff game since 2003 has seen betting this extreme, which results in a paltry 0.8 percent of postseason games receiving 60 percent or more on the under.
"As contrarian bettors, we're always looking for overreactions by the masses that result in valuable betting opportunities. In fact, our Week 12 article for ESPN Insider highlights that when the weather drops to 32 degrees and below, the over is historically the correct side as oddsmakers shade totals in anticipation of public money hitting the under.
"While most will be focusing on the spread, prop bets and playing the under, don't forget this rare opportunity to take the over in Super Bowl XLVIII, especially if the thermostat hits 32 degrees by kickoff."
The pick: Over
[h=3]Prop bets[/h]
Tuley's Take: A lot of value is gone from the majority of prop bets that started getting posted the middle of last week. Wiseguys have found the ones that were mispriced by oddsmakers and pounded them into shape. So, if you're looking for out-of-whack prices as the weekend approaches, you could have a long search. However, I think the way to attack props now is as a complement to how you think the game is going to play out. It's more of a true handicap of the game as opposed to just playing the market. It shouldn't surprise anyone, then, that my prop picks are mostly on the Seahawks and against the Broncos. (Note: prop prices as from the LVH SuperBook as of Monday)
Player to score first TD: Since I mentioned the Hester bet earlier, I should try to find a big price. I'll go with Wilson at 12-1 to get one on a scramble (or sneak). Actually, a nice long shot would be Manning at 50-1 as a naked bootleg would work near the goal line, plus it works as a nice hedge if you have the Seahawks.<!-- begin inline 1 --><!-- INLINE MODULE -->
Russell Wilson longest rush OVER 11.5 yards: I think Wilson will scramble several times during the game as a means to avoid throwing into coverage. I'm not sure he'll get to his game total of 30.5 yards (though I think that's a decent play as well), but I think he can get one run of at least 12 yards to win this prop.
Seahawks OVER 129.5 rushing yards: I'm tempted to take Marshawn Lynch over 92.5 yards, but with my thought that Wilson will add to the total plus Robert Turbin (and perhaps Percy Harvin getting a carry or two as a change of pace), I like the team total better.
Longest completion by Russell Wilson OVER 38.5 yards: With the emphasis on the run, I believe that will open it up for Wilson to go deep either off play-action or off of a scramble. He should be able to connect on at least one long pass.
Most penalty yards by Seahawks (minus-120): This might sound counterintuitive, but I expect the Seahawks to "lose" this stat and have more penalty yards -- that's fine as that's how they play (they had the most penalty yards in the NFL this year; Denver had the fourth most). They're very physical, especially with receivers, and those are the defenses that have caused Manning the most problems. So they're going to get flagged at times; I just hope it's not on a play where Seattle gets a turnover.
Total TD passes by Peyton Manning UNDER 1.5 (plus-175): We're expecting a relatively low-scoring game, so I'm counting on Manning to not put up huge numbers regardless. But even if the Broncos score, maybe they'll get a pass interference call in the end zone and Manning hands the ball off from there to at least take away one scoring pass. Note: Manning had only one TD pass in each of his previous Super Bowl appearances.
Demaryius Thomas UNDER 5 receptions (plus-105): The Broncos have a lot of weapons, but I believe the Seahawks will try to take away this Thomas (Julius Thomas could be harder to contain, especially if he draws a lot of coverage from linebackers). He'll probably draw Richard Sherman, plus the Broncos could likely use him as a decoy on a lot of routes. He might hit for a big play, but I don't expect him to get many targets.
Will either team score in the final 3.5 minutes?: I'll take the "no" at plus-140 and count on the Seahawks to be running out the clock with Lynch or the defense to hold off a late rally as they did against the 49ers.
Wunderdog
Prop I like: Highest-scoring half = 2nd + OT (minus-135)
"So far this season, we have seen a virtual dead heat with 23.3 points being scored on average in the first half and 23.6 scored in the second half of games. But in 47 Super Bowls, the average score for the first and second halves, respectively, has been 21.49 and 24.32. So we see that the second half average score is 13 percent higher. Excluding the push in 2012, the second half has been the highest scoring half in 29 of 46 Super Bowls (63 percent). Fair odds on a 63 percent bet are minus-170. In the last 23 years, the scoring difference has been even more pronounced with 22.31 average points in first halves and 28.18 in the second. In the last 16 years, the second half has been the highest scoring half 12 times out of 14 years (85.7 percent). The bottom line is that there is a lot of value on this bet at minus-135."
Prop I hate: Missed extra point YES (plus-800)
"People generally want to risk a little to win a lot. They want to win the lottery. The sportsbooks know this and as a result, they shift the odds off what they should be, to something that will attract more equal action. This bet is a prime example. The YES on this bet is set at plus-800. Bettors jump all over this because it would be a fun bet to win. But it's about the dumbest bet you could make because even if it hit, you'd be getting paid a ton less than you should, based on the true odds of this happening. Over the past 24 seasons (since 1990), there have been 364 missed extra points out of 24,951 attempted. That equates to a 1.46 percent chance of this happening. And kickers are getting more accurate. In 2013, only five of 1,267 attempts were missed, for a 99.6 percent success rate. To get paid only 8-1 on this is ludicrous; it should pay over 70-1."
Ted Sevransky
Total number of Seahawks to catch a pass: UNDER 7.5 (minus-175)
"Wilson isn't likely to air it out on Sunday, and the Seahawks haven't been spreading the ball around to eight different pass-catchers in any of their last six games. In fact, Seattle completed passes to eight or more receivers only five times all year. With Harvin suiting up and Doug Baldwin emerging as a 'go-to' WR for Wilson, I'm expecting less pass-catching diversity for Seattle, not more, making this juice worth laying."
ESPN Stats & Information
Note: All references to "this season" include the regular season and playoffs.
Russell Wilson total passing yards UNDER 209.5 (EVEN)
Wilson passed for at least 210 yards in nine of his 18 games this season, but only once in his last six games. The Broncos allowed at least 210 passing yards in 10 of their 18 games, but only once in their last six games.
Russell Wilson total interceptions UNDER 0.5 (plus-110)
Wilson didn't throw an interception in 10 of his 18 games, including none in his last three games. However, the Broncos' defense failed to record an interception in 10 of their 18 games, including none in their last three games.
Russell Wilson total rushing yards UNDER 32.5 (minus-105)
Wilson ran for at least 33 yards in seven of 18 games, but only once in the last six games. The Broncos allowed opposing quarterbacks to run for at least 33 yards in five games this season, once in their last six games.
Russell Wilson longest rush UNDER 12.5 yards (minus-105)
Wilson has 13 rushes of at least 13 yards on 104 rushes this season (once every eight rushes). He has had at least eight rushes in one of his last six games and hasn't had a 13-yard rush in his last three games. The Broncos have allowed a quarterback to rush for a 13-yard rush in four games this season, but not in their last six games.
Marshawn Lynch OVER 21.5 total rushing attempts (minus-115)
Counting the playoffs, Lynch has carried the ball a league-high 351 times. He has had more than 21 rushes in each of his last three games.
Doug Baldwin UNDER 40.5 total receiving yards (EVEN)
Baldwin has more than 40 yards in 10 of the Seahawks' 18 games, but he has reached that plateau only once in the past four games.
Richard Sherman UNDER 3.5 total tackles and assists (minus-115)
Sherman has more than three total tackles in two of his last 11 games.
Peyton Manning UNDER 290.5 total passing yards (minus-125)
Manning totaled more than 290 passing yards in 14 games this season, but only twice in his last five games. The Seahawks have allowed only two quarterbacks this season to pass for more than 215 yards in a game.
Peyton Manning UNDER 26.5 total completions (EVEN)
Manning had at least 27 completions in 12 games this season, but only once in his last three games. The Seahawks have allowed more than 26 completions twice, and not since Week 7.
Peyton Manning longest completion UNDER 37.5 yards (plus-105)
Manning has 15 completions of 38-plus yards this season, tied for third-most in the NFL, but only one such completion in the last five games. The Seahawks have allowed only five completions of longer than 37 yards this season, tied for the fewest in the league.
Knowshon Moreno UNDER 15.5 total rushing attempts (minus-115)
Moreno has rushed more than 15 times in only four of the Broncos' 18 games, including once in his last seven games.
Demaryius Thomas longest reception OVER 24.5 yards (minus-115)
Thomas has a league-leading 21 receptions longer than 24 yards, including four against the Patriots in the AFC Championship Game. The Seahawks have allowed a 24-plus yard reception in 13 games, including three such completions in their two playoff games.
Wes Welker UNDER 57.5 total receiving yards (minus-115)
Since Week 12, Welker has only one game with more than 57 receiving yards (missed three games due to injury).
Eric Decker UNDER 60.5 total receiving yards (EVEN)
Decker has had 60 or fewer yards in three of his past five games. The Seahawks haven't allowed a receiver to get more than 60 yards in two of their last three games.
Andre Caldwell OVER 9.5 total receiving yards (minus-105)
Caldwell has double-digit receiving yards in eight of the Broncos' 18 games, but he has reached that total in each of the past five games.
Super Bowl XLVIII betting guide[/h][h=3]Insight from Vegas wiseguys on the game, total and prop bets[/h]By Dave Tuley | ESPN Insider
LAS VEGAS -- When my "Opening Line" column was posted on Insider a week ago Monday, one of my readers, Herc Strizzo, wrote in the comments section what I'm sure many were thinking: "Spoiler alert, Tuley bets the underdog."
As it turns out, he's correct as the Seattle Seahawks are my pick to win Super Bowl XLVIII over the Denver Broncos. But the truth is that even before the opener was posted, I knew I was going to be on the Seahawks. Now, I know the true professionals will tell you that you should only bet when you feel you have an edge, and it's OK to pass even if it's the Super Bowl, but even though the Broncos opened as a short underdog here in Vegas, I knew I wasn't going to like them in this matchup. Plus, I do have too much degenerate left in me to actually pass on the Super Bowl, so I was prepared to make the Seahawks my pick (though I probably would have gone with a short money line play of minus-120 to minus-130 as opposed to laying any points).
Thankfully the early bettors turned the Broncos into the favorite and I'm comfortably back on the underdog.
However, the Super Bowl is more than just picking the winner, so I'll do my regular breakdown of what the public and the wiseguys are thinking about the game and then I'll give my "take." This betting guide also will include input from other handicappers on the game, total and the best prop bets to bet on.
Some years I've been able to win money on Super Sunday even when my main point-spread pick has lost (such as when Devin Hester paid off at 30-1 to score the first TD in Super Bowl XLI and guarantee a winning day even if the Bears didn't cover -- and they didn't), but also have cut into my winnings when I did have the right side.
Enjoy the game and good luck, as always.
Playoff record: 3-3-1 ATS | Regular season: 55-62-3 (47 percent) ATS
Note: Public Consensus Pick percentages from ESPN Insider's PickCenter as of Thursday morning.
<CENTER>[h=3]Matchup: Seattle Seahawks at Denver Broncos[/h]
Spread: Broncos minus-2.5
Public consensus pick: 72 percent picked Broncos
</CENTER>
Public perception: The wiseguys are given most of the credit for betting the Broncos from an opening underdog to favoritism, but the general public that also bet early was all over the Broncos, too. While the wiseguys have slowed down, the public consensus number at Insider's PickCenter and other bet-tracking sites have continued to show more than 70 percent of the action coming in on the Broncos. Peyton Manning is obviously a big part of Denver's appeal (the public rarely fades him) and they've been rewarded, as the Broncos are 11-7 ATS on the year (though the Seahawks certainly have their supporters and are an NFL-best 12-6 ATS).
Wiseguys' view: As stated previously, the sharps were on the Broncos early. Some of them probably thought Manning & Co. should be favored all along, while the rest of the movement came as part of the snowball effect. It gained momentum and other wiseguys jumped in along the way as it became more and more likely that they could buy back some on the Seahawks plus-3 at some point if they wanted. The line has gone that high a few times at a few books, but many industry insiders think it'll get pushed there for sure by Sunday. Regardless, the Seahawks also will be a popular teaser play, as you can get them over a touchdown.
Tuley's Take: <OFFER>I have no fear of fading Manning in big games, many times with success (such as Super Bowl XLIV with the Saints), plenty of times without, such as in the AFC title game against the Patriots. But the Seahawks' top-ranked defense gives me the confidence to go against him again. I'm sure you've all heard the stat that there have been four times where the No. 1 offense has faced the No. 1 defense and that the top defense is 3-1 so far, though what's not mentioned as often is it was Manning's Colts that defeated the Bears as the lone exception. Still, I also have more faith in Russell Wilson than Rex Grossman. Manning hasn't been sacked yet this postseason, but I expect that to change or at least the Seahawks' pass rush to pressure him into mistakes. I'm not counting on the weather to have a major impact on the game, but any conditions that are less than ideal can only help Seattle's cause.</OFFER>
The pick: Seahawks
Wunderdog says: "One reason the public is betting Denver is that they love offense and they know and admire Manning. Wilson is not a household name among non-NFL fans. The reason why the line could very well continue to move is that, unlike regular-season NFL games, the line moves in the Super Bowl are driven by the public. The amount of public money dwarfs sharp money in this game. And this effect only intensifies the closer you get to Super Bowl Sunday.
"My computer matchup for this game (not an official pick) has Seattle winning a very close game. The Seahawks offense ranked eighth in points scored this season, averaging 25.7 points per game. They ranked third in the league in rushing yards per game behind the power running game of Marshawn Lynch. Wilson quietly put up great numbers and that was without the services of Percy Harvin, Seattle's most explosive receiver, who will be back for this game. When facing defenses similar to Denver's this season, the Seahawks averaged 24.5 points per game.
"Denver set an NFL record for most points per game this season, but in their last four games (coinciding with improved defense on their part), the Broncos have averaged 30.3 per game -- a big number, but not the world-beating numbers they were putting up earlier.
"So why do we see the dip? I believe it's partly due to a conscious choice by John Fox to slow the game down. He knows that to win in the playoffs he needs to control the clock more and give his defense more rest. To get better defense, he has sacrificed offense. This has worked in the playoffs and as a result, I think he will continue with that strategy here.
"In the end this game looks like a pick 'em type of game -- one that either team can win. If you can get plus-3 or better on either team there is some value. Otherwise, pass."
The pick: Seahawks (if the line gets to plus-3)
[h=3]Over/under: 47[/h]
Tuley's Take: The total points are lower than we usually see in Super Bowls, where the long timeouts often help the offenses set up big plays. However, the colder conditions and the Seahawks' No. 1-ranked defense (as well as the Seahawks staying under in seven straight games and the Broncos also having a five-game under streak) have ensured this number stays low. While I do think that a low-scoring game works in the Seahawks' favor, I can see them winning a shootout (with their defense getting one more stop, or a pick-six to really turn the game around while pushing the score higher), so I'll pass on the total.
The pick: Pass
PJ Walsh of Sports Insights says: "The Super bowl betting market sees a huge influx of money on the spread and over/under (O/U) from those not necessarily interested in value, but betting to have something to root for between commercials. In scenarios like these, bets are often driven by mainstream media coverage and this week's overemphasis of weather is having a significant effect on O/U betting.
"As of Tuesday morning, 60 percent of O/U bets are on the under for Super Bowl XLVIII. While this doesn't seem overly one-sided, the fact that the public is on the under at all is quite a surprise. Historically, recreational bettors favor overs because, frankly, rooting for an exciting game with lots of scoring is more entertaining than hoping for a game full of three-and-outs and field goals.
"According to our Bet Labs data analysis software, only 100 regular-season games have closed with 60 percent or more of O/U bets on the under since 2003. That breaks down to only 3.6 percent of all games. Furthermore, only one playoff game since 2003 has seen betting this extreme, which results in a paltry 0.8 percent of postseason games receiving 60 percent or more on the under.
"As contrarian bettors, we're always looking for overreactions by the masses that result in valuable betting opportunities. In fact, our Week 12 article for ESPN Insider highlights that when the weather drops to 32 degrees and below, the over is historically the correct side as oddsmakers shade totals in anticipation of public money hitting the under.
"While most will be focusing on the spread, prop bets and playing the under, don't forget this rare opportunity to take the over in Super Bowl XLVIII, especially if the thermostat hits 32 degrees by kickoff."
The pick: Over
[h=3]Prop bets[/h]
Tuley's Take: A lot of value is gone from the majority of prop bets that started getting posted the middle of last week. Wiseguys have found the ones that were mispriced by oddsmakers and pounded them into shape. So, if you're looking for out-of-whack prices as the weekend approaches, you could have a long search. However, I think the way to attack props now is as a complement to how you think the game is going to play out. It's more of a true handicap of the game as opposed to just playing the market. It shouldn't surprise anyone, then, that my prop picks are mostly on the Seahawks and against the Broncos. (Note: prop prices as from the LVH SuperBook as of Monday)
Player to score first TD: Since I mentioned the Hester bet earlier, I should try to find a big price. I'll go with Wilson at 12-1 to get one on a scramble (or sneak). Actually, a nice long shot would be Manning at 50-1 as a naked bootleg would work near the goal line, plus it works as a nice hedge if you have the Seahawks.<!-- begin inline 1 --><!-- INLINE MODULE -->
Russell Wilson longest rush OVER 11.5 yards: I think Wilson will scramble several times during the game as a means to avoid throwing into coverage. I'm not sure he'll get to his game total of 30.5 yards (though I think that's a decent play as well), but I think he can get one run of at least 12 yards to win this prop.
Seahawks OVER 129.5 rushing yards: I'm tempted to take Marshawn Lynch over 92.5 yards, but with my thought that Wilson will add to the total plus Robert Turbin (and perhaps Percy Harvin getting a carry or two as a change of pace), I like the team total better.
Longest completion by Russell Wilson OVER 38.5 yards: With the emphasis on the run, I believe that will open it up for Wilson to go deep either off play-action or off of a scramble. He should be able to connect on at least one long pass.
Most penalty yards by Seahawks (minus-120): This might sound counterintuitive, but I expect the Seahawks to "lose" this stat and have more penalty yards -- that's fine as that's how they play (they had the most penalty yards in the NFL this year; Denver had the fourth most). They're very physical, especially with receivers, and those are the defenses that have caused Manning the most problems. So they're going to get flagged at times; I just hope it's not on a play where Seattle gets a turnover.
Total TD passes by Peyton Manning UNDER 1.5 (plus-175): We're expecting a relatively low-scoring game, so I'm counting on Manning to not put up huge numbers regardless. But even if the Broncos score, maybe they'll get a pass interference call in the end zone and Manning hands the ball off from there to at least take away one scoring pass. Note: Manning had only one TD pass in each of his previous Super Bowl appearances.
Demaryius Thomas UNDER 5 receptions (plus-105): The Broncos have a lot of weapons, but I believe the Seahawks will try to take away this Thomas (Julius Thomas could be harder to contain, especially if he draws a lot of coverage from linebackers). He'll probably draw Richard Sherman, plus the Broncos could likely use him as a decoy on a lot of routes. He might hit for a big play, but I don't expect him to get many targets.
Will either team score in the final 3.5 minutes?: I'll take the "no" at plus-140 and count on the Seahawks to be running out the clock with Lynch or the defense to hold off a late rally as they did against the 49ers.
Prop I like: Highest-scoring half = 2nd + OT (minus-135)
"So far this season, we have seen a virtual dead heat with 23.3 points being scored on average in the first half and 23.6 scored in the second half of games. But in 47 Super Bowls, the average score for the first and second halves, respectively, has been 21.49 and 24.32. So we see that the second half average score is 13 percent higher. Excluding the push in 2012, the second half has been the highest scoring half in 29 of 46 Super Bowls (63 percent). Fair odds on a 63 percent bet are minus-170. In the last 23 years, the scoring difference has been even more pronounced with 22.31 average points in first halves and 28.18 in the second. In the last 16 years, the second half has been the highest scoring half 12 times out of 14 years (85.7 percent). The bottom line is that there is a lot of value on this bet at minus-135."
Prop I hate: Missed extra point YES (plus-800)
"People generally want to risk a little to win a lot. They want to win the lottery. The sportsbooks know this and as a result, they shift the odds off what they should be, to something that will attract more equal action. This bet is a prime example. The YES on this bet is set at plus-800. Bettors jump all over this because it would be a fun bet to win. But it's about the dumbest bet you could make because even if it hit, you'd be getting paid a ton less than you should, based on the true odds of this happening. Over the past 24 seasons (since 1990), there have been 364 missed extra points out of 24,951 attempted. That equates to a 1.46 percent chance of this happening. And kickers are getting more accurate. In 2013, only five of 1,267 attempts were missed, for a 99.6 percent success rate. To get paid only 8-1 on this is ludicrous; it should pay over 70-1."
Total number of Seahawks to catch a pass: UNDER 7.5 (minus-175)
"Wilson isn't likely to air it out on Sunday, and the Seahawks haven't been spreading the ball around to eight different pass-catchers in any of their last six games. In fact, Seattle completed passes to eight or more receivers only five times all year. With Harvin suiting up and Doug Baldwin emerging as a 'go-to' WR for Wilson, I'm expecting less pass-catching diversity for Seattle, not more, making this juice worth laying."
Note: All references to "this season" include the regular season and playoffs.
Russell Wilson total passing yards UNDER 209.5 (EVEN)
Wilson passed for at least 210 yards in nine of his 18 games this season, but only once in his last six games. The Broncos allowed at least 210 passing yards in 10 of their 18 games, but only once in their last six games.
Russell Wilson total interceptions UNDER 0.5 (plus-110)
Wilson didn't throw an interception in 10 of his 18 games, including none in his last three games. However, the Broncos' defense failed to record an interception in 10 of their 18 games, including none in their last three games.
Russell Wilson total rushing yards UNDER 32.5 (minus-105)
Wilson ran for at least 33 yards in seven of 18 games, but only once in the last six games. The Broncos allowed opposing quarterbacks to run for at least 33 yards in five games this season, once in their last six games.
Russell Wilson longest rush UNDER 12.5 yards (minus-105)
Wilson has 13 rushes of at least 13 yards on 104 rushes this season (once every eight rushes). He has had at least eight rushes in one of his last six games and hasn't had a 13-yard rush in his last three games. The Broncos have allowed a quarterback to rush for a 13-yard rush in four games this season, but not in their last six games.
Marshawn Lynch OVER 21.5 total rushing attempts (minus-115)
Counting the playoffs, Lynch has carried the ball a league-high 351 times. He has had more than 21 rushes in each of his last three games.
Doug Baldwin UNDER 40.5 total receiving yards (EVEN)
Baldwin has more than 40 yards in 10 of the Seahawks' 18 games, but he has reached that plateau only once in the past four games.
Richard Sherman UNDER 3.5 total tackles and assists (minus-115)
Sherman has more than three total tackles in two of his last 11 games.
Peyton Manning UNDER 290.5 total passing yards (minus-125)
Manning totaled more than 290 passing yards in 14 games this season, but only twice in his last five games. The Seahawks have allowed only two quarterbacks this season to pass for more than 215 yards in a game.
Peyton Manning UNDER 26.5 total completions (EVEN)
Manning had at least 27 completions in 12 games this season, but only once in his last three games. The Seahawks have allowed more than 26 completions twice, and not since Week 7.
Peyton Manning longest completion UNDER 37.5 yards (plus-105)
Manning has 15 completions of 38-plus yards this season, tied for third-most in the NFL, but only one such completion in the last five games. The Seahawks have allowed only five completions of longer than 37 yards this season, tied for the fewest in the league.
Knowshon Moreno UNDER 15.5 total rushing attempts (minus-115)
Moreno has rushed more than 15 times in only four of the Broncos' 18 games, including once in his last seven games.
Demaryius Thomas longest reception OVER 24.5 yards (minus-115)
Thomas has a league-leading 21 receptions longer than 24 yards, including four against the Patriots in the AFC Championship Game. The Seahawks have allowed a 24-plus yard reception in 13 games, including three such completions in their two playoff games.
Wes Welker UNDER 57.5 total receiving yards (minus-115)
Since Week 12, Welker has only one game with more than 57 receiving yards (missed three games due to injury).
Eric Decker UNDER 60.5 total receiving yards (EVEN)
Decker has had 60 or fewer yards in three of his past five games. The Seahawks haven't allowed a receiver to get more than 60 yards in two of their last three games.
Andre Caldwell OVER 9.5 total receiving yards (minus-105)
Caldwell has double-digit receiving yards in eight of the Broncos' 18 games, but he has reached that total in each of the past five games.
