STATSYSTEMS SPORTS STAT/SHEETS, 2/9/14
NCAA COLLEGE BASKETBALL
INFORMATION WORTH BETTING ON EACH DAY
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***** Sunday, 2/9/14 NCAACB Knowledge *****
(ALL RESULTS ATS) - Against The Spread - and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Each and every day during the 2013-14 NCAA College Basketball season we will analyze all of your daily basketball action, featuring all our Highly-Rated (Situational & Match-up) Power Trends, along with some of our Situational Analysis (Betting Systems) that pertain to some of that days match-ups.
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Sunday's Notebook
•Michigan State won its last five games with Wisconsin, winning last two visits here by total of 5 points; Spartans are 9-1 in league despite being unable to get whole team healthy- Appling missed last game- they're 5-0 on road, winning last road game in OT at Iowa. Badgers lost three home games in row, first time that has happened under Ryan. Big Dozen home favorites of 4 or less points are 5-2 versus spread.
•Youngstown State (-6) beat Detroit 77-63 at home Jan 18, scoring 1.17 ppp, making 9-20 from arc, just its second win in last nine series games. Penguins lost three of last four visits here, are 1-3 in last four games, as favorites are 4-1 versus spread in their Horizon road games. Horizon home favorites of 5 or less points are 5-12 versus spread. Detroit won three of its last five games overall, but lost three of five Horizon home games.
•Indiana State (-2) won 77-73 at Drake Jan 8, game they trailed by 4 with 9:07 left; Drake lost four of last five visits to Terre Haute, losing by 12-10-12-7 points. Sycamores are 2-2 as home favorites, winning at home by 12-3-15-14 points, with loss to Wichita in last home game. Drake is 1-4 versus spread on Valley road, losing by 11-10-10-18, with lone win at So. Illinois. MVC double digit home favorites are 6-4 versus spread.
•UMass is 2-3 in last five games after starting season 16-1; they won six of last seven games with Rhode Island, winning three in row by 6-28-9 points; they're 4-2 in last six visits here. Minutemen lost last three road games, scoring 62.7 ppg. A-13 home underdogs are 10-8 against spread. Dogs are 3-0 versus spread in URI's A-13 home games; Rams lost by point to Saint Louis, beat George Mason/Dayton, are 2-0 as home dogs.
•Illinois lost its last eight games; its last win was 75-55 (-8.5) versus Penn St. Jan 4, holding Lions to 29.8% from floor. Illini lost last two visits here by hoop each- home teams won last five series games. Big Dozen home favorites of 4 or less points are 5-2 versus spread. Penn State won three of last four games, is 1-1 as favorite- three of its last four home games were decided by 4 or less points. Illini is 1-5 as a dog, 1-2 on foreign soil.
•Western Michigan won its last eight games versus Northern Illinois, winning last three visits here by 12-25-37 points; Broncos won four of last five games, are 0-4 as MAC favorites- dogs covered seven of their first nine MAC games. NIU won/covered last three games after a 1-5 start; they're 1-3 at home, beating Miami by 12 last game for first home win. MAC home underdogs of less than 5 points are 6-3 versus spread.
•Clemson is 6-3 in ACC; 5-0 in games decided by 8 or less points, with losses by 15-33-19 points. Favorites are 4-1 versus spread in their road tilts; Tigers are 2-1 as road dogs. ACC double digit home favorites are 5-7 versus spread. Syracuse is playing its first game since becoming #1 in poll that means very little; they're 1-4 as home favorites, winning in dome by 5-12-4-2-6 points. This is first series meeting as ACC rivals.
•Akron won its last nine games with Bowling Green; they've won nine in a row in Falcons' gym, with five of last seven by 9+ points. Zips are 4-1 on MAC road but struggled on offense last two games, scoring 57-52 points- they're 2-5 as MAC favorites, 1-2 on road. MAC home teams are 8-7 versus spread if spread was 3 or less points. Bowling Green is 1-3 in last four games, 2-3 at home, but they upset Buffalo in last home tilt.
•Connecticut (-11) hammered UCF 84-61 at home Jan 11, holding Knights to 31.3% from floor. Huskies are 2-3 on AAC road, 1-1 as road favorites, winning at Memphis/Rutgers, losing at Cincinnati and the Texas schools. UCF is 1-8 versus spread in league, 0-5 at home, 0-3 as home dogs, losing by 25-12-1-10 points at home, with only win versus Temple. AAC home dogs are 6-10 versus spread, 1-5 if getting 7 or less points.
•Creighton won four in row, 14 of last 15 games; they beat St John's by 3 at home (-12.5) Jan 28, after blowing 18-point lead with 10:46 left- that is Red Storm's only loss in their last five games. McDermott had 39 in that game but Gibbs didn't play- he played 21 minutes Friday. Bluejays are 3-1 on Big East road with all three wins by 13+. Big East home dogs are 5-9 against the spread. St John's covered last three games as a dog.
•Colorado (-4) lost 71-54 at Washington Jan 12 in game when Dinwiddie hurt his knee; home teams won all three series games- Huskies lost by 18 here in last visit two years ago. Pac-12 home favorites of 6 or less points are 6-7 versus spread. Buffaloes won last three home games by 21-4-5; they are 3-3 as home favorites. Washington lost its last five road games, by 9-26-12-5-9 points, but they're 3-2 versus spread as a road underdog.
•Iona (-6.5) lost 85-83 at home to Canisius Jan 17, despite a 40-16 run in second half that erased a 20-point deficit; Gaels won six of last nine versus Canisius, but lost three of last four visits here. Iona won six in row since that game (5-1 vs. spread); favorites are 5-1 versus spread in their MAAC away games. Canisius had 4-game win streak snapped by Manhattan on Friday. MAAC home favorites of 4 or less points are 8-6 versus spread.
•Niagara is 11-3 in last 14 games versus Manhattan, sweeping Jaspers LY by 4-4 points; Jaspers are 1-6 in last seven visits here, but Niagara is awful, losing five of last six games- they're 2-4 at home, with three losses by 11 or more points. Jaspers won at Canisius Friday; they're 3-3 in last six games after 6-1 start. 3-3 on MAAC road, winning by 11-12-11 points. Manhattan is MAAC home underdogs are 5-10 against spread.
•Situational Trends of The Day
-- ST PETERS is 4-24 ATS (-22.4 Units) in home games after failing to cover 3 of their last 4 against the spread since 1997.
The average score was ST PETERS 66.2, OPPONENT 71.5.
-- DETROIT is 14-1 OVER (+12.9 Units) in home games after a win by 6 points or less since 1997.
The average score was DETROIT 73.7, OPPONENT 65.9.
-- OREGON ST is 27-6 (+20.4 Units) against the 1rst half line in road games after 4 straight games forcing opponent to commit 14 or less turnovers since 1997.
The average score was OREGON ST 32.2, OPPONENT 32.8.
-- ST JOHNS is 10-0 UNDER (+10.0 Units) the 1rst half total after playing a game as a road underdog over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was ST JOHNS 27.7, OPPONENT 27.3.
-- STEVE LAVIN is 1-17 ATS (-17.7 Units) after a game committing 8 or less turnovers as the coach of ST JOHNS.
The average score was LAVIN 64.9, OPPONENT 67.4.
•Matchup Trends of The Day
-- N ILLINOIS is 1-12 ATS (-12.2 Units) in home games versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing <=14 turnovers/game over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was N ILLINOIS 53.9, OPPONENT 63.9.
-- ARIZONA is 14-2 UNDER (+11.8 Units) versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing <=14 turnovers/game this season.
The average score was ARIZONA 70.9, OPPONENT 55.6.
-- HOUSTON is 11-1 against the 1rst half line (+9.9 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was HOUSTON 37.9, OPPONENT 28.3.
-- COLORADO is 14-1 UNDER (+12.9 Units) the 1rst half total versus bad pressure defensive teams - forcing <=12 turnovers/game over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was COLORADO 29.4, OPPONENT 24.1.
-- KEITH DAMBROT is 10-1 OVER (+8.9 Units) in road games versus poor 3 point shooting teams - making <=31% of their attempts after 15+ games as the coach of AKRON.
The average score was DAMBROT 81.9, OPPONENT 67.9.
•Situation Analysis of The Day
-- Play On - Home favorites of -165 to -500 versus the money line (COLORADO) - poor 3PT shooting team (<=32%) against an average 3PT shooting team (32-36.5%), revenging a straight up loss versus opponent as a road favorite against opponent off a loss against a conference rival.
(310-57 since 1997.) (84.5%, +135.1 units. Rating = 4*)
The average money line posted in these games was: Team favored with a money line of: -306.9
The average score in these games was: Team 72.2, Opponent 63.3 (Average point differential = +8.9)
The situation's record this season is: (4-0, +4 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (70-11, +37.2 units).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (119-23, +49.5 units).
-- Play Against - Home teams as a favorite or pick (HOUSTON) - average shooting team (42.5-45%) against an poor defensive team (45-47.5%) after 15+ games, average rebounding team (+/-3 Reb/G) against a poor rebounding team (-3 to -6 Reb/G) - 15+ games.
(38-11 over the last 5 seasons.) (77.6%, +25.9 units. Rating = 3*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is: (16-33 over the last 5 seasons.)
The average line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 8.4
The average score in these games was: Team 64.6, Opponent 70.1 (Average point differential = -5.6)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 15 (32.6% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (3-2).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (18-6).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (96-66).
-- Play On - All teams where the line is +3 to -3 (AKRON) - average offensive team (67-74 PPG) against a poor offensive team (63-67 PPG) after 15+ games, after allowing 60 points or less 3 straight games, in a game involving two good defensive teams (63-67 PPG).
(25-5 since 1997.) (83.3%, +19.5 units. Rating = 3*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is: (25-6)
The average line posted in these games was: Team favored by 0.3
The average score in these games was: Team 66.4, Opponent 61 (Average point differential = +5.4)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 12 (38.7% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (4-1).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (12-2).
-- Play On - Underdogs of 2 to 3.5 points versus the first half line (UCF) - average shooting team (42.5-45%) against an excellent defensive team (<=40%) after 15+ games, after 2 straight games - allowing a shooting pct. of 50% or higher.
(31-9 since 1997.) (77.5%, +21.1 units. Rating = 3*)
The average first half line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 3.6
The average first half score in these games was: Team 30.8, Opponent 31.2 (Average first half point differential = -0.5)
The situation's record this season is: (1-1).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (10-3).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (18-4).
-- Play On - Underdogs of 2 to 3.5 points versus the first half line (OAKLAND) - average shooting team (42.5-45%) against an excellent defensive team (<=40%) after 15+ games, after 2 straight games - allowing a shooting pct. of 50% or higher.
(31-9 since 1997.) (77.5%, +21.1 units. Rating = 3*)
The average first half line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 3.6
The average first half score in these games was: Team 30.8, Opponent 31.2 (Average first half point differential = -0.5)
The situation's record this season is: (1-1).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (10-3).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (18-4).
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Sunday's Match-ups
#817 MICHIGAN ST @ #818 WISCONSIN
(TV: 1:00 PM EST, CBS - Line: Wisconsin -3.5, Total: N/A) - Eighth-ranked Michigan State has been ravaged by injuries, but constantly changing personnel has yet to affect its ability to challenge for another Big Ten title. The Spartans, who travel to No. 24 Wisconsin on Sunday, have been forced to use 12 different lineups over the last 18 games after Keith Appling (wrist) missed the first game of his career in Thursday’s win over Penn State. Appling’s absence left Denzel Valentine as the only Michigan State regular that has yet to miss a game this season.
The Spartans, who hold a half-game lead on Michigan atop the conference standings, got a much-needed boost off the bench from Adreian Payne (foot), who returned Thursday with 12 points in 18 minutes after a seven-game layoff. With coach Tom Izzo unsure of when Appling will play again, Payne’s presence may be even more critical against the Badgers, who will looking to end a rare three-game home losing streak. After setting a school record with a 16-0 start, Wisconsin is 2-5 since – its worst seven-game run since 2008-09.
•ABOUT MICHIGAN STATE (20-3 SU, 12-8-2 ATS, 9-1 Big Ten): Payne’s box-score contribution may have been below his usual average, but the welcome he received from the Spartans’ crowd was captivating. "It was like Willis Reed coming off the bench (in reference to the New York Knicks captain's dramatic appearance in the 1970 NBA Finals),” Penn State coach Patrick Chambers told reporters after the game. "The crowd was going crazy - standing ovation." Payne is 22 points shy of becoming the 44th player in school history to score at least 1,000 points in his career.
•ABOUT WISCONSIN (18-5 SU, 13-10-0 ATS, 5-5 Big Ten): The Badgers could use more offense from struggling 7-0 forward Frank Kaminsky, who set a school record with 43 points earlier in the season but has averaged six over his last three contests on 4-of-16 shooting. Freshman Nigel Hayes has picked up some of the slack, averaging 15.5 points over the last two games while converting 13 of his 14 field-goal attempts. Wisconsin connected on 43.5 percent of its 3-pointers in Tuesday’s win over Illinois – a stark contrast from the 27.9 percent the Badgers shot over their previous six contests.
•PREGAME NOTES: Michigan State is 10-1 away from home, including 6-0 in true road contests.... Wisconsin ranks second in the country in fewest turnovers (8.3).... During the Spartans’ five-game winning streak in this series, they have outscored the Badgers in the paint 144-64.... Wisconsin is 32-13 versus the spread in home games versus good offensive teams - scoring 77+ points/game since 1997.... Michigan State is 6-0 against the spread versus bad pressure defensive teams - forcing less than 12 turnovers/game this season.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, MICHIGAN ST covered the spread 520 times, while WISCONSIN covered the spread 480 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, WISCONSIN won the game straight up 563 times, while MICHIGAN ST won 402 times. In 1000 simulated games, MICHIGAN ST covered the first half line 500 times, while WISCONSIN covered the first half line 460 times. *No EDGE.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--MICHIGAN ST is 18-16 against the spread versus WISCONSIN since 1997.
--MICHIGAN ST is 21-14 straight up against WISCONSIN since 1997.
--18 of 29 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL since 1997.
--WISCONSIN is 19-15 versus the first half line when playing against MICHIGAN ST since 1997.
--17 of 27 games in this series have gone UNDER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1997.
--Spartans are 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
--Favorite is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings.
--Home team is 14-5 ATS in the last 19 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--MSU is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 Sunday games.
--MSU is 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games overall.
--Under is 10-2 in MSU last 12 road games.
--Over is 7-3 in WIS last 10 overall.
--Over is 19-7 in WIS last 26 Sun. games.
--Over is 7-3 in WIS last 10 vs. Big Ten.
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#819 TEMPLE @ #820 HOUSTON
(TV: 2:00 PM EST, ESPNews - Line: Houston -2.5, Total: N/A) - Houston ends a brief two-game homestand that opened with a 77-62 loss to defending national champion Louisville when it hosts struggling Temple on Sunday afternoon in American Athletic Conference play. It's the first meeting between the two schools who will also play on March 1 in Philadelphia. Houston will be looking to snap a five-game losing streak while Temple has lost 10 of its last 11 games, including two in a row.
It's been a tough transition to the AAC from the Atlantic 10 for the rebuilding Owls, who lost four key players from a squad that went to the NCAA Tournament for the sixth straight year and lost to Indiana, 58-52, in the Round of 32. Temple's first AAC Texas road swing started with a clunker on Thursday night, a 75-52 loss at Southern Methodist that saw the Owls shoot just 30.3 percent from the floor and score 23 points less than their season average. "It was more SMU's defense than anything else," coach Fran Dunphy told Philly.com.
•ABOUT TEMPLE (6-15 SU, 8-10-1 ATS, 1-8 AAC): The Owls are the only team in Division I to have four players averaging 14 or more points per game. Guard Dalton Pepper (17.5) leads the team in scoring, which ranks fourth in the AAC, and is shooting 41.2 percent from 3-point range. Guards Will Cummings (16.6), Quenton DeCosey (15.3) and forward Anthony Lee (14.2) are also averaging in double figures.
•ABOUT HOUSTON (11-11 SU, 8-10-0 ATS, 3-6 AAC): The Cougars struggled offensively in their last outing against the Cardinals that was played in front of their largest home crowd (7,274) since 2008, many of whom were on hand to celebrate former head coach Guy V. Lewis' selection to the Naismith Memorial Basketball Hall of Fame. Houston went over six minutes without a field goal and fell behind by as many as 23 points in the second half before rallying to close to within nine points with seven minutes to go. "In the second half, we woke up," forward TaShawn Thomas, who leads the team in scoring (15.8) and rebounding (8.7), told the Houston Chronicle.
•PREGAME NOTES: Thomas has 34 career double-doubles, including nine this season.... Pepper, who had a career-high 33 points in a Jan. 26 loss against No. 7 Cincinnati, leads the AAC in 3-pointers made per game (2.9).... Houston freshman G Tyus Bowser has played in three games since joining the team after playing defensive end on the Cougars football team, where he compiled 26 tackles and had five sacks.... The Cougars are 6-0 versus the spread in home games when playing against a team with a losing record after 15 or more games over the last three seasons.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, TEMPLE covered the spread 523 times, while HOUSTON covered the spread 477 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, HOUSTON won the game straight up 536 times, while TEMPLE won 440 times. In 1000 simulated games, TEMPLE covered the first half line 537 times, while HOUSTON covered the first half line 463 times. *No EDGE.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
All games in this series since 1997: There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
•RECENT TRENDS
--TEM is 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 road games.
--TEM is 20-6-1 ATS in their last 27 Sun. games.
--Under is 10-2 in TEM last 12 road games.
--HOU is 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
--Under is 11-4 in HOU last 15 overall.
--Under is 9-2 in HOU last 11 home games.
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#837 ILLINOIS @ #838 PENN ST
(TV: 4:15 PM EST, Big Ten Network - Line: Penn State -3, Total: N/A) - Things have changed quite a bit since the last time Illinois played Penn State. The Illini routed the Nittany Lions 75-55 on Jan. 4, but coach John Groce's team has lost eight straight games since to fall to the bottom of the Big Ten standings. Penn State hasn't been much better going 3-5, but it's been a more productive month for the Nittany Lions than Illinois, which will visit Penn State on Sunday.
Illinois' struggles have been largely because of an anemic offense that averages 62.9 points in conference play. Rayvonte Rice (16.9 points per game) and Tracy Abrams (11.9) rank in the league's top 20 in scoring, but the Illini aren't as explosive as they were in non-conference games. Penn State has its own scoring duo in D.J. Newbill (17.6) and Tim Frazier (16.4), which keeps the Nittany Lions in almost every game.
•ABOUT ILLINOIS (13-10 SU, 8-10-4 ATS, 2-8 Big Ten): The Illini need to get back on track, and Groce is hoping the sight of Penn State will get his team playing better. It needs to happen soon as Illinois is falling fast out of the postseason race. With two games against Nebraska as well as a home date with Ohio State in its next four contests, Illinois has a chance to gain some momentum, which it will need before it faces the top three of the Big Ten - No. 16 Michigan, No. 8 Michigan State and No. 13 Iowa - in its final three conference games.
•ABOUT PENN STATE (12-11 SU, 10-9-1 ATS, 3-7 Big Ten): As Nittany Lions coach Patrick Chambers sees his team maturing as a unit, he is working on the mental game that it takes to rise high in the conference standings. When the team is struggling on one end of the floor, some times it carries over to the other end, causing double the problems for the team. It's something Chambers hopes to correct soon. “We've got 18 to 23 year olds; I think we let the offensive end dictate the defensive end and I'm trying very hard to rid that mentality,” Chambers told reporters. “Keep playing through missed shots, keep playing through turnovers and things like that.”
•PREGAME NOTES: Rice is the only player in the Big Ten leading his team in scoring, rebounding (5.9 per game) and steals (1.3) on the season.... Newbill averaged 18.8 points and 6.4 rebounds in the last five games.... Illinois' experiences in Happy Valley have been up and down, with four of its last five wins there coming by double figures but all six of its losses at the Bryce Jordan Center coming by three points or less.... Illinois is 0-6 against the spread versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing less than 14 turnovers/game after 15+ games this season.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, PENN ST covered the spread 523 times, while ILLINOIS covered the spread 435 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, PENN ST won the game straight up 620 times, while ILLINOIS won 354 times. In 1000 simulated games, PENN ST covered the first half line 523 times, while ILLINOIS covered the first half line 477 times. *No EDGE.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--PENN ST is 16-10 against the spread versus ILLINOIS since 1997.
--ILLINOIS is 19-9 straight up against PENN ST since 1997.
--11 of 19 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL since 1997.
--ILLINOIS is 16-11 versus the first half line when playing against PENN ST since 1997.
--10 of 19 games in this series have gone OVER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1997.
--Fighting Illini are 3-10 ATS in the last 13 meetings.
--Fighting Illini are 1-5 ATS in the last 6 meetings in Penn St.
--Under is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings.
--Home team is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
--Underdog is 15-5-2 ATS in the last 22 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--ILL is 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games overall.
--Under is 8-2 in ILL last 10 Sun. games.
--Under is 18-4 in ILL last 22 road games.
--PSU is 3-8 ATS in their last 11 vs. Big Ten.
--PSU is 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games overall.
--Over is 9-4 in PSU last 13 home games.
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#841 CLEMSON @ #842 SYRACUSE
(TV: 6:00 PM EST, ESPNU - Line: Syracuse -13.5, Total: N/A) - Syracuse is ranked No. 1 in the nation and needs one more win to match the school record for consecutive victories, but that doesn't mean Jim Boeheim is allowing his players to be affected by all their success. "Coach let us know that right now it means really nothing (to be No. 1)," freshman point guard Tyler Ennis told the media this week. "We have to play our best ball at the end of the season. Whether we're ranked or not, it really doesn't matter to us." The Orange seek their 23rd straight victory - which would match the 1916-17 and 1917-18 squads - when they host Clemson on Sunday.
The Tigers enter with the country's top scoring defense (55 points) and have allowed an average of 49 points in back-to-back wins over Florida State and Georgia Tech this month. Then again, Clemson ended January by getting crushed in consecutive games by Pittsburgh 76-43 and North Carolina 80-61. “We’re certainly going to have to make some 3s to win the game. We’re going to have to take some, because sometimes that’s all you can get,” Clemson coach Brad Brownell told reporters, referring to Syracuse's vaunted 2-3 zone.
•ABOUT CLEMSON (15-6 SU, 10-6-0 ATS, 6-3 ACC): The Tigers are likely on the path to the NCAA Tournament, but a win over the top-ranked Orange would go a long way. Clemson's dynamic defense is offset by a limited offense that has not produced more than 61 points in six straight games since a 72-59 upset of Duke on Jan. 11. K.J. McDaniels is by far the Tigers' top offensive player at 16.3 points and also leads the team with seven rebounds, 1.1 steals and 2.6 blocks.
•ABOUT SYRACUSE (22-0 SU, 11-6-1 ATS, 9-0 ACC): The Orange have made big plays down the stretch to win each of their last six games, including an overtime thriller against Duke on Feb. 1 and a six-point win over Notre Dame two days later. C.J. Fair (16.7 points) destroyed the Blue Devils with a career-best 28 points while playing all 45 minutes - his fourth straight game playing every minute. Trevor Cooney was the star against the Fighting Irish, scoring a career-high 33 points on 9-of-12 3-point shooting, raising the sophomore's average to 14.1 points per game, compared to 3.4 last season.
•PREGAME NOTES: Each team's best player is coming off a poor effort, as McDaniels shot 3-of-14 for eight points against Georgia Tech while Fair was 2-of-13 and only managed six points against Notre Dame.... The Tigers are not a great 3-point shooting team at 31.8 percent, although they average more than 12 offensive rebounds per contest.... Syracuse F Jerami Grant has shot 3-of-8 from the field in three of his last four games.... The Tigers are 14-4 against the spread in road games off a home no-cover where the team won straight up as a favorite since 1997.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, CLEMSON covered the spread 583 times, while SYRACUSE covered the spread 417 times. *EDGE against the spread =CLEMSON. In 1000 simulated games, SYRACUSE won the game straight up 804 times, while CLEMSON won 178 times. In 1000 simulated games, CLEMSON covered the first half line 623 times, while SYRACUSE covered the first half line 338 times. *EDGE against first half line =CLEMSON.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--CLEMSON is 1-0 against the spread versus SYRACUSE since 1997.
--CLEMSON is 1-0 straight up against SYRACUSE since 1997.
--1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1997.
--CLEMSON is 1-0 versus the first half line when playing against SYRACUSE since 1997.
--1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1997.
•RECENT TRENDS
--Under is 20-6 in CLEM last 26 Sun. games.
--Under is 5-1 in CLEM L6 games following a S.U. win.
--Over is 5-2 in CLEM L7 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
--SYR is 11-4-1 ATS in their last 16 games overall.
--Under is 8-2 in SYR last 10 overall.
--Under is 7-2 in SYR last 9 vs. Atlantic Coast.
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#845 CONNECTICUT @ #846 C FLORIDA
(TV: 6:00 PM EST, ESPN2 - Line: Connecticut -6, Total: N/A) - After snapping its three-game win streak in a loss at No. 7 Cincinnati on Thursday, Connecticut hopes to avoid falling to .500 in American Athletic Conference play when it visits Central Florida on Sunday. The Huskies strung together three wins to offset a 2-3 start to their AAC schedule before the loss to the Bearcats that saw leading scorer Shabazz Napier shoot 5-of-19 from the floor. "I didn't play good basketball," Napier told the Hartford Courant, adding, "I had a bad shooting night."
UConn may find easy pickings in a reeling Knights team mired in a seven-game losing streak. Central Florida suffered a crushing overtime defeat at the hands of in-state rival South Florida on Wednesday and despite having to accept the harsh reality of losing a lead in the final minute of regulation, having a potential game-winning layup blocked, a controversial foul call leading to the game's decisive free throws and a last-second, full-court shot that clanged off the rim, Knights coach Donnie Jones came away optimistic. "We fought hard and something good is going to come out of this," Jones told reporters.
•ABOUT CONNECTICUT (17-5 SU, 11-9-0 ATS, 5-4 AAC): Huskies coach Kevin Ollie is preparing his team for a matchup that he sees as dangerous with Central Florida in dire need of a win. "They're going to be a desperate team and we've got to be ready to play," Ollie told the Courant. "We can't say, 'Oh, we ran over that team,'" referring to an 84-61 thrashing at Gampel Pavilion on Jan. 11. Freshman center Amida Brimah had his best game of the season in that decision, leading UConn with career highs of 20 points and eight rebounds, and Ollie may look to the 7-footer again against a Knights team that allowed 54 points in the paint last time out.
•ABOUT CENTRAL FLORIDA (9-11 SU, 3-11-0 ATS, 1-8 AAC): The Knights' current losing streak is their worst since an eight game slide in 2011. That skid was snapped with a run of five wins in the next six games and this year's Central Florida squad is looking for a similar turnaround with nine regular season games remaining. Senior guard Isaiah Sykes, Central Florida's leading scorer at 15.6 points per game, led the Knights with 17 points and four assists in the Jan. 11 meeting with the Huskies.
•PREGAME NOTES: UConn leads the AAC in free throw percentage, connecting on 77.3 percent, while Central Florida's 60 percent clip ranks ahead of only Morgan State (58.9) and Central Arkansas (59.1) nationally.... The Knights lead the conference in rebounding at 39.2 boards per game.... The Huskies are shooting 40.5 percent from 3-point range - tops in the AAC and eighth in the nation.... UCF is 4-13 against the spread versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing less than 14 turnovers/game over the last 2 seasons.... The Huskies are 9-2 versus the spread off a loss against a conference rival over the last two seasons.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, CONNECTICUT covered the spread 545 times, while UCF covered the spread 424 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, CONNECTICUT won the game straight up 713 times, while UCF won 260 times. In 1000 simulated games, CONNECTICUT covered the first half line 511 times, while UCF covered the first half line 440 times. *No EDGE.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--UCF is 4-1 against the spread versus CONNECTICUT since 1997.
--CONNECTICUT is 4-1 straight up against UCF since 1997.
--3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1997.
--CONNECTICUT is 3-2 versus the first half line when playing against UCF since 1997.
--3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1997.
--Huskies are 1-4 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
--Underdog is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--UCONN is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 Sunday games.
--UCONN is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall.
--Over is 8-3 in UCONN last 11 overall.
--UCF is 5-15-1 ATS in their last 21 games overall.
--Over is 7-3 in UCF last 10 overall.
--Over is 7-3-1 in UCF last 11 home games.
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#847 CREIGHTON @ #848 ST JOHN'S
(TV: 7:00 PM EST, Fox Sports 1 - Line: Creighton -3, Total: N/A) - Doug McDermott and Creighton are certainly leaving their mark during their inaugural season in the Big East. The nation's second-leading scorer and the 12th-ranked Bluejays look to push their winning streak to five games when they visit St. John's on Sunday evening. The teams just met on Jan. 28, when McDermott capped a spectacular 39-point performance with a 3-pointer with 2.5 seconds left to lift Creighton to a 63-60 home victory.
"Big-time shot by a big-time player," St. John's coach Steve Lavin said after McDermott shot 15-of-26 from the floor and 5-of-9 from behind the arc to set a career high for points. The Bluejays followed up the tight win over the Red Storm with a 12-point triumph against DePaul, although senior forward Ethan Wragge (11.9 points) scored a total of 12 in the two victories. "Doug keeps getting 30-plus," said Creighton coach Greg McDermott. "You've got a choice to make. The last two teams have taken Ethan away and Doug scored 39 and 32. So that's what we do. Put them on the same side of the floor and wish them good luck."
•ABOUT CREIGHTON (19-3 SU, 13-7-0 ATS, 9-1 Big East): The Bluejays have won 14 of 15 to forge into a first-place tie with Villanova atop the conference standings. McDermott (25.3 points) and Wragge each shoot almost 50 percent from the field and better than 80 percent from the line, in addition to combining for 136 3-pointers. The Bluejays lead the nation in assists (18.4), thanks in large part to Grant Gibbs (4.4) and Austin Chatman (4.3), and of course the hot shooting of McDermott and Wragge.
•ABOUT ST. JOHN'S (14-9 SU, 9-12-0 ATS, 4-6 Big East): The Red Storm appear to be headed to the NIT, although they have resurfaced a bit with five wins in their last six games (only losing to Creighton). Junior guard D'Angelo Harrison is the team's leading scorer at 18.3 points and is coming off back-to-back 20-point efforts against Marquette (27 points) and Providence (22). The Bluejays are the only team that has held the Red Storm below 69 points since mid-January, and St. John's 86-point performance against Providence on Tuesday marked the team's highest total since Christmas.
•PREGAME NOTES: Entering Saturday's action, McDermott only trailed Antoine Mason of Niagara (26 points per game), although Mason's team is just 6-18 on the season.... Wragge, a 6-7 forward, has made exactly half of his 162 3-pointers this season, including 16-of-28 over his last four games.... Harrison is 9-of-17 from 3-point range over his last two contests.... Creighton is 15-6 versus the spread off a home win by 10 points or more over the last two seasons.... The Red Strom are 0-10 against the spread after a game committing 8 or less turnovers over the last two seasons.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, CREIGHTON covered the spread 603 times, while ST JOHNS covered the spread 369 times. *EDGE against the spread =CREIGHTON. In 1000 simulated games, CREIGHTON won the game straight up 684 times, while ST JOHNS won 282 times. In 1000 simulated games, CREIGHTON covered the first half line 593 times, while ST JOHNS covered the first half line 407 times. *EDGE against first half line =CREIGHTON.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--ST JOHNS is 1-0 against the spread versus CREIGHTON since 1997.
--CREIGHTON is 1-0 straight up against ST JOHNS since 1997.
--1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL since 1997.
--ST JOHNS is 1-0 versus the first half line when playing against CREIGHTON since 1997.
--1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1997.
•RECENT TRENDS
--CRE is 30-9 ATS in their last 39 Sun. games.
--CRE is 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games overall.
--Under is 12-5 in CRE last 17 road games.
--SJU is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 vs. Big East.
--Over is 6-2-1 in SJU last 9 vs. Big East.
--Under is 13-5-1 in SJU last 19 Sun. games.
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#849 OREGON ST @ #850 ARIZONA
(TV: 7:00 PM EST, Pac-12 Network - Line: Arizona -15, Total: N/A) - Arizona is still adjusting to life without forward Brandon Ashley as the third-ranked Wildcats head into Sunday’s home game against Oregon State. The 6-8 sophomore suffered a season-ending foot injury last week, forcing coach Sean Miller to alter his rotation in Thursday's 67-65 win over Oregon. Freshman Rondae Hollis-Jefferson started at small forward in place of Ashley, while fellow freshman Aaron Gordon moved to power forward.
The Wildcats hold a two-game lead in the Pac-12, but they can’t afford to overlook a dangerous Oregon State squad that has won four of its last six. Guard Roberto Nelson averages a league-best 21.8 points for the Beavers, who are .500 through the first 10 games of Pac-12 play for the first time since 1999. Oregon State is coming off an 86-82 overtime loss at Arizona State on Thursday, when the Beavers fell to 5-26 in conference road games under coach Craig Robinson.
•ABOUT OREGON STATE (13-9 SU, 10-8-1 ATS, 5-5 Pac-12): The Beavers’ recent surge can be partly attributed to freshman point guard Hallice Cooke, who is shooting a Pac-12-best 53.8 percent from 3-point range and scored a season-high 20 points in last Sunday’s 71-67 win over UCLA. “Hallice is not your typical freshman,” Robinson told reporters. “He’s playing like he’s been here before.” The veteran frontline is led by the 6-10 duo of Eric Moreland and Angus Brandt, who is averaging 14.1 points over his last eight games.
•ABOUT ARIZONA (22-1 SU, 13-9-0 ATS, 9-1 Pac-12): Ashley’s injury has created more playing time for guard Elliott Pitts, who impressed Miller in 12 minutes off the bench against Oregon. “He has a beautiful-looking shot,” Miller told reporters. “The more he gets out there, the more comfortable he gets. I think he can give us maybe a punch on offense and that can be one of the positives as we utilize him more.” Center Kaleb Tarczewski had a career-high 18 points against the Ducks, and the 7-footer figures to take on a greater offensive role in Ashley’s absence.
•PREGAME NOTES: Arizona leads the all-time series 56-20, including five straight wins.... The Wildcats are 71-11 at McKale Center under Miller.... Moreland is averaging 12.4 points and 12.6 rebounds at home compared to 4.2 points and 7.2 boards on the road.... Arizona is 10-1 against the spread versus excellent 3-point shooting teams - making more than 41% of their attempts after 15+ games since 1997.... Oregon State is 12-3 versus the spread in road games when playing only their 2nd game in a week over the last two seasons.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, ARIZONA covered the spread 514 times, while OREGON ST covered the spread 447 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, ARIZONA won the game straight up 893 times, while OREGON ST won 93 times. In 1000 simulated games, OREGON ST covered the first half line 559 times, while ARIZONA covered the first half line 441 times. *No EDGE.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--OREGON ST is 19-14 against the spread versus ARIZONA since 1997.
--ARIZONA is 27-7 straight up against OREGON ST since 1997.
--10 of 19 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1997.
--ARIZONA is 16-16 versus the first half line when playing against OREGON ST since 1997.
--12 of 19 games in this series have gone UNDER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1997.
--Beavers are 7-2 ATS in the last 9 meetings.
--Underdog is 5-2 ATS in the last 7 meetings.
--Home team is 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--Under is 9-4 in ORST last 13 Sun. games.
--Over is 9-2 in ORST last 11 games following a ATS win.
--Under is 6-2-1 in ORST last 9 games following a S.U. loss.
--Under is 38-16-1 in ARIZ last 55 overall.
--Under is 34-16-1 in ARIZ last 51 home games.
--Under is 21-10-1 in ARIZ last 32 Sun. games.
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#851 WASHINGTON @ #852 COLORADO
(TV: 8:00 PM EST, ESPNU - Line: Colorado -6, Total: N/A) - Colorado has won two straight games for the first time since losing its best player to a season-ending knee injury and the Buffaloes will try to make it three in a row when they host Washington on Sunday evening in Pac-12 play. Spencer Dinwiddie went down with a torn ACL when these teams met Jan. 12 at Washington, a 71-54 win by the Huskies. Colorado’s only win over the next four games was against last-place USC, but the Buffaloes have regrouped with an overtime win against Utah and a five-point victory Wednesday against Washington State to move into a tie for third in the conference entering Saturday.
Colorado still has trouble finding its way at times. The Buffaloes scored a season-low 23 points in the first half against Washington State before Askia Booker took over and scored 12 of his 26 points in the first 5 1/2 minutes after halftime. Washington will be trying to avoid losing three in a row for the first time this season and the Huskies will undoubtedly lean on leading scorer C.J. Wilcox, a senior guard who set career highs with seven 3-pointers and 31 points when these teams last met.
•ABOUT WASHINGTON (13-10 SU, 10-12-0 ATS, 5-5 Pac-12): The Buffaloes likely will key on Wilcox, and it’s up to Andrew Andrews to keep the perimeter defense honest. Andrews must be itching to get back on the floor after shooting 1-for-12 in the loss to Utah, including 0-for-7 from 3-point range. If the outside shots aren’t falling, look for Washington to pound it inside to forward Desmond Simmons, who matched his career high with 14 points on 7-for-8 shooting against the Utes.
•ABOUT COLORADO (17-6 SU, 12-10-0 ATS, 6-4 Pac-12): The last meeting against Washington left a bitter taste for the Buffaloes. Dinwiddie was lost for the season, then-No. 15 Colorado lost to an unranked foe and Booker missed all nine of his field goal attempts. Expect the Buffaloes to look down low to 6-10 center Josh Scott for offensive support after he was limited to season lows of three shots and one point against Washington State.
•PREGAME NOTES: Colorado is 10-1 in games decided by single digits, including 8-0 at home.... The Buffaloes are on pace to keep their opponent’s scoring average under 70 points in three straight seasons for the first time since 1980-81.... Wilcox is averaging 25 points in three career games against Colorado.... The Huskies are 12-3 against the spread versus teams who are called for 3+ less fouls/game than their opponents over the last two seasons.... The Buffaloes are 38-21 versus the spread revenging a loss where team scored less than 60 points since 1997.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, COLORADO covered the spread 602 times, while WASHINGTON covered the spread 365 times. *EDGE against the spread =COLORADO. In 1000 simulated games, COLORADO won the game straight up 768 times, while WASHINGTON won 214 times. In 1000 simulated games, COLORADO covered the first half line 556 times, while WASHINGTON covered the first half line 408 times. *EDGE against first half line =COLORADO.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--WASHINGTON is 2-1 against the spread versus COLORADO since 1997.
--WASHINGTON is 2-1 straight up against COLORADO since 1997.
--1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1997.
--COLORADO is 2-1 versus the first half line when playing against WASHINGTON since 1997.
--1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1997.
•RECENT TRENDS
--WASH is 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games following a ATS win.
--Over is 4-1 in WASH last 5 vs. Pacific-12.
--Under is 12-5-1 in WASH last 18 road games.
--COLO is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 Sunday games.
--Under is 35-17 in COLO last 52 vs. Pacific-12.
--Under is 22-8 in COLO last 30 games following a ATS loss.
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