NBA Fantasy Forecast: February 10-23

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Fantasy Forecaster: Feb. 10-23

By Neil Tardy | Special to ESPN.com

Are you ready to play two?

With NBA All-Star Weekend a week away, ESPN.com head-to-head leagues move to a special schedule over the next two weeks. The weeks of Feb. 10 (with games Monday through Thursday) and Feb. 17 (games Tuesday through Sunday) are combined into a single scoring period. This edition of the NBA Fantasy Forecaster covers this two-week period (Week 16-17). The next Forecaster column will be published Feb. 21.

[h=3]Week 16-17 at a Glance[/h]
This extended stretch is one of relative parity as far as the schedule goes. Twenty NBA teams have five games, while seven others -- the Atlanta Hawks, Charlotte Bobcats, Cleveland Cavaliers, Denver Nuggets, Detroit Pistons, Toronto Raptors and Washington Wizards -- play six times. A quick breakdown of these seven teams follows.

Meanwhile, three teams -- the Los Angeles Clippers, Oklahoma City Thunder and Philadelphia 76ers -- have just four games. Do the math though and you'll see that it's not worth getting overly hung up on the number of games. By proportion, having four games in this two-week window, when most teams play five, is less of a disadvantage compared to a typical seven-day week, when a handful of teams play only twice while the rest have three or four games. Needless to say, owners of Kevin Durant, Blake Griffin and the soon-to-return Chris Paul will happily start their studs.

Of the teams playing five games, the Los Angeles Lakers offer substantial intrigue for Week 16-17. Not only is Steve Blake the most-added player in ESPN.com leagues, two of his teammates -- Steve Nash and Jordan Farmar -- are also on this list. Frankly, I think folks are going a bit overboard on Blake based on his triple-double against the Cleveland Cavaliers on Feb. 5. That game being the second of a back-to-back, Nash didn't take the court in Cleveland. And as I'll explain in a bit, the Cavs are one sweet matchup right now.

Don't get me wrong. As fantasy free agents go, Blake is worth grabbing in most formats. But I'd prefer Nash, even knowing he won't play every night. And note that the Lakers' schedule in Week 16-17 -- all home games against the Utah Jazz, Thunder, Houston Rockets, Boston Celtics and Brooklyn Nets -- is free of back-to-backs.

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atl.gif
Atlanta
HAWKS
OFF@CHI
R: 5
@TOR
R: 5
OFFOFFOFFOFFG: 6
H: 2
R: 8
OFF@IND
R: 3
WSH
R: 6
OFF@DET
R: 7
NY
R: 6
OFF
bos.gif
Boston
CELTICS
@MIL
R: 5
OFFSA
R: 5
OFFOFFOFFOFFG: 5
H: 1
R: 2
OFFOFF@PHX
R: 3
OFF@LAL
R: 5
@SAC
R: 4
OFF
bkn.gif
Brooklyn
NETS
OFFOFFCHA
R: 5
@CHI
R: 3
OFFOFFOFFG: 5
H: 1
R: 3
OFFOFF@UTA
R: 4
OFFOFF@GS
R: 3
@LAL
R: 6
cha.gif
Charlotte
BOBCATS
OFFDAL
R: 5
@BKN
R: 4
OFFOFFOFFOFFG: 6
H: 4
R: 5
OFF@DET
R: 5
DET
R: 5
OFFNO
R: 4
MEM
R: 2
OFF
chi.gif
Chicago
BULLS
OFFATL
R: 6
OFFBKN
R: 5
OFFOFFOFFG: 5
H: 3
R: 2
OFFOFF@TOR
R: 2
OFFDEN
R: 5
OFF@MIA
R: 4
cle.gif
Cleveland
CAVALIERS
OFFSAC
R: 6
@DET
R: 4
OFFOFFOFFOFFG: 6
H: 3
R: 6
OFF@PHI
R: 7
ORL
R: 6
OFF@TOR
R: 2
OFFWSH
R: 5
dal.gif
Dallas
MAVERICKS
OFF@CHA
R: 5
@IND
R: 2
OFFOFFOFFOFFG: 5
H: 1
R: 6
OFFMIA
R: 7
OFFOFF@PHI
R: 8
@DET
R: 6
OFF
den.gif
Denver
NUGGETS
@IND
R: 4
OFF@MIN
R: 6
OFFOFFOFFOFFG: 6
H: 2
R: 10
OFFPHX
R: 7
OFF@MIL
R: 8
@CHI
R: 5
OFFSAC
R: 8
det.gif
Detroit
PISTONS
SA
R: 6
OFFCLE
R: 7
OFFOFFOFFOFFG: 6
H: 5
R: 9
OFFCHA
R: 6
@CHA
R: 5
OFFATL
R: 7
DAL
R: 7
OFF
gsw.gif
Golden State
WARRIORS
PHI
R: 10
OFFMIA
R: 7
OFFOFFOFFOFFG: 5
H: 4
R: 5
OFFOFF@SAC
R: 6
HOU
R: 7
OFFBKN
R: 7
OFF
hou.gif
Houston
ROCKETS
@MIN
R: 6
OFFWSH
R: 8
OFFOFFOFFOFFG: 5
H: 1
R: 5
OFFOFF@LAL
R: 8
@GS
R: 5
OFFOFF@PHX
R: 6
ind.gif
Indiana
PACERS
DEN
R: 7
OFFDAL
R: 7
OFFOFFOFFOFFG: 5
H: 3
R: 5
OFFATL
R: 7
@MIN
R: 5
OFFOFF@MIL
R: 6
OFF
lac.gif
Los Angeles
CLIPPERS
OFFOFFPOR
R: 7
OFFOFFOFFOFFG: 4
H: 2
R: 3
OFFSA
R: 7
OFFOFF@MEM
R: 4
OFF@OKC
R: 4
lal.gif
Los Angeles
LAKERS
OFFUTA
R: 6
OFFOKC
R: 4
OFFOFFOFFG: 5
H: 5
R: 4
OFFOFFHOU
R: 5
OFFBOS
R: 5
OFFBKN
R: 6
mem.gif
Memphis
GRIZZLIES
OFFWSH
R: 5
@ORL
R: 5
OFFOFFOFFOFFG: 5
H: 3
R: 3
OFFNY
R: 5
OFFOFFLAC
R: 5
@CHA
R: 3
OFF
mia.gif
Miami
HEAT
OFF@PHX
R: 6
@GS
R: 5
OFFOFFOFFOFFG: 5
H: 1
R: 4
OFF@DAL
R: 7
OFF@OKC
R: 4
OFFOFFCHI
R: 6
mil.gif
Milwaukee
BUCKS
BOS
R: 3
OFFNO
R: 4
OFFOFFOFFOFFG: 5
H: 5
R: 1
OFFORL
R: 4
OFFDEN
R: 4
OFFIND
R: 1
OFF
min.gif
Minnesota
TIMBERWOLVES
HOU
R: 6
OFFDEN
R: 7
OFFOFFOFFOFFG: 5
H: 3
R: 3
OFFOFFIND
R: 4
OFFOFF@UTA
R: 6
@POR
R: 5
nor.gif
New Orleans
PELICANS
@TOR
R: 4
OFF@MIL
R: 7
OFFOFFOFFOFFG: 5
H: 1
R: 3
OFFOFFNY
R: 6
OFF@CHA
R: 5
@WSH
R: 5
OFF
nyk.gif
New York
KNICKS
OFFOFFSAC
R: 7
OFFOFFOFFOFFG: 5
H: 1
R: 5
OFF@MEM
R: 3
@NO
R: 4
OFF@ORL
R: 5
@ATL
R: 5
OFF
okc.gif
Oklahoma City
THUNDER
OFF@POR
R: 6
OFF@LAL
R: 9
OFFOFFOFFG: 4
H: 2
R: 3
OFFOFFOFFMIA
R: 8
OFFOFFLAC
R: 8
orl.gif
Orlando
MAGIC
OFFOFFMEM
R: 4
OFFOFFOFFOFFG: 5
H: 2
R: 4
OFF@MIL
R: 4
@CLE
R: 4
OFFNY
R: 5
OFF@TOR
R: 2
phi.gif
Philadelphia
76ERS
@GS
R: 3
OFF@UTA
R: 4
OFFOFFOFFOFFG: 4
H: 2
R: 1
OFFCLE
R: 7
OFFOFFDAL
R: 7
OFFOFF
pho.gif
Phoenix
SUNS
OFFMIA
R: 8
OFFOFFOFFOFFOFFG: 5
H: 4
R: 10
OFF@DEN
R: 6
BOS
R: 7
OFFSA
R: 7
OFFHOU
R: 7
por.gif
Portland
TRAIL BLAZERS
OFFOKC
R: 5
@LAC
R: 5
OFFOFFOFFOFFG: 5
H: 4
R: 5
OFFOFFSA
R: 6
OFFUTA
R: 7
OFFMIN
R: 7
sac.gif
Sacramento
KINGS
OFF@CLE
R: 5
@NY
R: 4
OFFOFFOFFOFFG: 5
H: 2
R: 4
OFFOFFGS
R: 5
OFFOFFBOS
R: 6
@DEN
R: 5
sas.gif
San Antonio
SPURS
@DET
R: 7
OFF@BOS
R: 5
OFFOFFOFFOFFG: 5
H: 0
R: 3
OFF@LAC
R: 5
@POR
R: 5
OFF@PHX
R: 5
OFFOFF
tor.gif
Toronto
RAPTORS
NO
R: 6
OFFATL
R: 7
OFFOFFOFFOFFG: 6
H: 5
R: 8
OFF@WSH
R: 4
CHI
R: 5
OFFCLE
R: 7
OFFORL
R: 7
uth.gif
Utah
JAZZ
OFF@LAL
R: 5
PHI
R: 8
OFFOFFOFFOFFG: 5
H: 3
R: 2
OFFOFFBKN
R: 5
OFF@POR
R: 2
MIN
R: 5
OFF
was.gif
Washington
WIZARDS
OFF@MEM
R: 3
@HOU
R: 5
OFFOFFOFFOFFG: 6
H: 2
R: 8
OFFTOR
R: 5
@ATL
R: 6
OFFOFFNO
R: 6
@CLE
R: 6

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"R" matchup ratings are based on a scale from 1 (poor matchup) to 10 (excellent matchup) and are calculated using a formula that evaluates the team's year-to-date and past 10 games' statistics; their performance in home/road games, depending on where the game is to be played; as well as their opponents' numbers in those categories. The Games T / H column lists the team's total number of games played as well as home games (T / H), and lists the overall rating from 1 to 10 for that week's matchups.


Teams with 6 Games
Note: Each of these teams plays twice before the break, then four times coming out of All-Star Weekend.

Atlanta Hawks (@CHI, @TOR, @IND, WSH, @DET, NY)
Available players: DeMarre Carroll (rostered in 55.4 percent of leagues as of Friday); Mike Scott (2.9 percent); Louis Williams (15.2 percent).
Outlook: Carroll has entered the fantasy mainstream based on an eight-game stretch in which he's averaged 15.6 points, 5.9 rebounds, 2.4 3-pointers and 2.0 steals. Impressive stuff, to be sure, but note that the career 44.3 percent shooter is connecting at an insane rate of 57.8 percent from the field in this span. While this schedule has its highlights -- Pistons opponents are tops in shooting and third in steals, while New York Knicks opponents are fifth in 3s -- Carroll's accuracy can be expected to slide with Indiana Pacers, Chicago Bulls and Raptors opponents all in the bottom eight in field-goal percentage.

Charlotte Bobcats (DAL, @BKN, @DET, DET, NO, MEM)
Available players: Gerald Henderson (rostered in 88.8 percent of leagues as of Friday); Josh McRoberts (3.6 percent).
Outlook: From a fantasy standpoint, there isn't much to say about the Bobcats other than Kemba Walker is back and Al Jefferson, who averaged 23.9 points and 11.3 boards in January, has been as nasty as this bone-chilling winter. But if you have Henderson, you may as well activate him for Week 16-17; Pistons, Dallas Mavericks and New Orleans Pelicans opponents are all in the top six in shooting.

Cleveland Cavaliers (SAC, @DET, @PHI, ORL, @TOR, WSH)
Available players: Jarrett Jack (rostered in 21.6 percent of leagues as of Friday); C.J. Miles (2.8 percent); Dion Waiters (42.3 percent); Anthony Bennett (5.8 percent).
Outlook: During their six-game game losing streak, the Cavaliers have allowed 110.8 points, 51.6 percent shooting and 10.3 3-pointers. Cavs opponents are also a plus-5 in rebound differential during that span. From the start of this season, the Sixers have provided by far the best and most exploitable fantasy matchups. But the Cavs, who seem more dysfunctional by the day, are now part of this discussion. To be honest, the only fantasy free agent on this team who holds any intrigue for me is Bennett. Last year's first overall pick has scored in double figures in three of five games, and it figures he'll get as much playing time as he can handle from here.

Denver Nuggets (@IND, @MIN, PHX, @MIL, @CHI, SAC)
Available player: Randy Foye (rostered in 84.1 percent of leagues as of Friday).
Outlook: Foye may struggle with this schedule -- Pacers, Phoenix Suns and Bulls opponents are all in the bottom six in triples. Then again, the schedule may not be the primary concern for owners who've invested in Foye. Between the fallout with Andre Miller and Nate Robinson's season-ending knee injury, the Nuggets are down to Foye and the inexperienced Evan Fournier at shooting guard. So it's worth wondering if Denver will make a move ahead of the NBA's trading deadline. If the Nuggets stand pat, Foye should remain a solid fantasy contributor -- he's averaging better than 40 minutes since Robinson went down. But if Foye is on my roster, I'd be exploring trade options.

Detroit Pistons (SA, CLE, CHA, @CHA, ATL, DAL)
Available players: Rodney Stuckey (rostered in 24.4 percent of leagues as of Friday); Kyle Singler (0.3 percent).
Outlook: Singler has started the past two games while topping 30 minutes in three straight outings. However, given the established options in this offense, his fantasy upside seems minimal. With this set of six games, Stuckey is an end-of-the-lineup option for leagues of at least 12 teams, though only the floundering Cavs are a notably favorable matchup.

Toronto Raptors (NO, ATL, @WSH, CHI, CLE, ORL)
Available players: Amir Johnson (rostered in 47.0 percent of leagues as of Friday); Terrence Ross (34.1 percent); Greivis Vasquez (32.8 percent).
Outlook: Even with six games, this schedule doesn't offer any obvious reasons to gamble on the banged up Johnson or the up-and-down Ross.

Washington Wizards (@MEM, @HOU, TOR, @ATL, NO, @CLE)
Available players: Martell Webster (rostered in 14.9 percent of leagues as of Friday).
Outlook: With this set of games, Marcin Gortat and Nene should help you in blocks more than they'll hurt you at the line. Memphis Grizzlies, Rockets, Pelicans and Cavs opponents are all in the top 11 in rejections.

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[h=3]Opponent Performance, Past 10 games[/h]
<CENTER></CENTER>Team<CENTER>PPGA</CENTER><CENTER>FG%A</CENTER><CENTER>3PT%A</CENTER><CENTER>RPG
diff.</CENTER>
<CENTER>SPGA</CENTER><CENTER>BPGA</CENTER>
phi.gif
Philadelphia
76ERS
109.846.7%76.0%-3.69.68.3
den.gif
Denver
NUGGETS
108.945.2%77.2%-1.07.94.7
lal.gif
Los Angeles
LAKERS
107.645.8%69.8%-10.78.43.8
mil.gif
Milwaukee
BUCKS
107.649.1%75.7%-3.97.65.0
dal.gif
Dallas
MAVERICKS
106.048.1%76.1%-2.27.32.9
atl.gif
Atlanta
HAWKS
105.947.8%78.7%-2.97.74.5
cle.gif
Cleveland
CAVALIERS
105.249.1%77.8%0.16.16.6
por.gif
Portland
TRAIL BLAZERS
104.546.2%77.7%3.46.04.2
det.gif
Detroit
PISTONS
104.049.4%71.8%1.99.75.3
pho.gif
Phoenix
SUNS
103.645.1%78.5%2.17.14.2
sac.gif
Sacramento
KINGS
103.545.1%71.5%3.38.65.4
lac.gif
Los Angeles
CLIPPERS
103.046.3%72.2%0.37.33.7
orl.gif
Orlando
MAGIC
101.346.0%73.2%-5.47.55.6
hou.gif
Houston
ROCKETS
101.145.3%74.1%3.17.25.4
was.gif
Washington
WIZARDS
100.645.4%75.3%1.77.74.8
mia.gif
Miami
HEAT
100.345.4%73.3%-1.49.23.1
uth.gif
Utah
JAZZ
100.244.5%73.8%-1.26.74.1
bos.gif
Boston
CELTICS
99.646.3%74.6%0.87.74.2
nyk.gif
New York
KNICKS
99.644.9%77.3%2.57.13.1
sas.gif
San Antonio
SPURS
99.345.3%74.5%-1.87.55.7
min.gif
Minnesota
TIMBERWOLVES
98.644.1%79.8%2.37.75.8
bkn.gif
Brooklyn
NETS
98.445.7%79.9%-6.96.74.0
ind.gif
Indiana
PACERS
98.442.9%74.3%7.06.73.7
cha.gif
Charlotte
BOBCATS
98.343.1%77.9%-3.26.44.0
gsw.gif
Golden State
WARRIORS
97.844.0%70.8%0.77.03.4
tor.gif
Toronto
RAPTORS
97.644.5%81.1%5.57.73.6
nor.gif
New Orleans
PELICANS
95.444.1%75.1%0.66.76.3
okc.gif
Oklahoma City
THUNDER
94.545.9%74.2%5.78.53.3
chi.gif
Chicago
BULLS
92.443.7%76.8%1.67.05.8
mem.gif
Memphis
GRIZZLIES
89.943.0%77.0%2.26.04.2

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All statistics are for teams' past 10 games played and are defensive numbers. PPGA: Points per game allowed. FG%A: Field goal percentage allowed. 3PT%A: Three-point percentage allowed. RPG diff.: Rebounds per game differential. SPGA: Steals per game allowed. BPGA: Blocks per game allowed.

 

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