STATSYSTEMS SPORTS STAT/SHEETS, 2/11/14
NCAA COLLEGE BASKETBALL
INFORMATION WORTH BETTING ON EACH DAY
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***** Tuesday, 2/11/14 NCAACB Knowledge *****
(ALL RESULTS ATS) - Against The Spread - and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Each and every day during the 2013-14 NCAA College Basketball season we will analyze all of your daily basketball action, featuring all our Highly-Rated (Situational & Match-up) Power Trends, along with some of our Situational Analysis (Betting Systems) that pertain to some of that days match-ups.
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Tuesday's Notebook
•Oklahoma State lost its last four games, is now without Smart for three games (suspended), and is down three players; Cowboys were 35-51 on the line in 87-74 (-12.5) win over Texas Jan 8, their 4th win in row versus Texas. Underdogs are 5-0 versus spread in OSU's Big X road games. Texas won seven of last eight games; they're 0-3 as home favorites, winning by 3-10-3-12. Big X home favorites of less than 5 points are 5-2 versus spread.
•Clemson is 2-3 in its last five games; favorites are 5-1 versus spread in their ACC road games- all four Tiger ACC losses are by 13+ points- they are 5-0 SU in ACC games decided by 8 or less points. Notre Dame is 2-8 in its last ten games, 0-3 as home favorite, with ACC wins by 2-7-3. ACC home favorites of 5 or less points are 4-11 versus spread. Clemson is last in ACC in ball security, turning ball over 21.3% of time.
•Wake Forest shot 65% inside arc, 28-39 on foul line in 70-69 (-2.5) win over NC State Jan 15, just its 2nd win in last eight series games. Wake is 0-8 in last eight visits here, with last four losses by 11+ points- they've lost last three games by 9+ points, are 2-3 as road underdogs. State won four of last five games, with its last three wins by 4 or less points. ACC home favorites of 6 or less points are 6-16 versus spread.
•Tennessee was 1-19 on arc in 67-41 (-9) loss at Florida Jan 25, ending a 3-game win streak versus Gators. Florida is 1-5 in last six visits here; three of five losses were by 4 or less points. Florida is 10-0 in SEC, 3-3 as home favorite, with all six wins by 9+. SEC home teams are 21-7-1 versus spread in games where spread was 5 or less points. Tennessee won its last four home games after losing conference home opener to Texas A&M.
•Alabama lost four games in row and six of seven; favorites covered four of its five SEC home games (2-1 as HF). Home side won 11 of last 13 in series; Rebels lost last two visits here, by 10-5 points. Ole Miss lost its last two road games at Tennessee/Kentucky, both by 16 points- they're 1-4 versus spread on SEC road, 2-0 as road dogs. SEC home favorites of 6 or less points are 13-4 against the spread.
•Marquette won four in row, 12 of last 13 games with Seton Hall- they beat Pirates 67-66 (-10) Jan 11, holding on after leading by 16 early in second half. Eagles are 1-4 on Big East road, with three losses by 12+, and only win at Georgetown- they're 1-4 as Big East underdog. Pirates lost three of four Big East home games, with only win versus DePaul. Big East home favorites of 6 or less points are 10-7 versus spread.
•Wichita State (-11.5) beat Southern Illinois 82-67 in Carbondale Jan 2nd, shooting 70% inside arc, 9-20 outside it; Shockers won four of last five series games, winning last two here by 43-6 points. MVC double digit home favorites are 6-5 versus spread. Wichita is 4-2 as MVC home favorite but covered one of last four games overall. Salukis won/covered last four games- they're 4-1-1 versus spread in last six games as an underdog.
•Ohio State won eight of last ten games with Michigan, winning last nine in Columbus, with eight of nine wins by 9+ points, but three of last four in series were decided by 5 or less points. Big Dozen home favorites of less than 6 points are 7-10 versus spread. Michigan lost last two road games, at Indiana/Iowa; they're 3-1 as road underdogs. Ohio State won three in row after losing five of previous six- they're 2-3 as home favorites.
•Butler is 1-4 at home in Big East, with only win over Marquette in OT; four of those five games went OT. Xavier (-5.5) beat Bulldogs 79-68 Jan 4, making 20-24 on line, with a +7 (15-8) turnover ratio; Musketeers are 1-3 on Big East road, losing by 6-9-23 points, with only win at DePaul; they've lost three of last four overall, losing by 9-8-23 points. Big East home teams are 6-3 versus spread if spread was 3 or less points.
•Utah State (-6.5) beat Colorado State 57-50 Jan 15, making 11-21 on arc, just 8-27 inside it; Rams were only 11-20 on foul line. Aggies are 0-5 on Mountain West road, 1-2 as road dogs, losing away games by 1-8-4-20-17 points. Rams covered four of last five games, are 2-1 as home favorites, winning by 19-6-18 points, with only losses to Aztecs/Lobos, top two teams. MW home favorites of 5 or less points are 8-3 versus spread.
•San Diego State won six of last seven games with Wyoming, splitting its last six visits here; Aztecs are 10-0 in league, 3-1 as road favorites, with three of last four road wins by 7 or less points. Five of last six Wyoming games were decided by 7 or less points; Cowboys won three of four at home in MW, with only loss by 3 to New Mexico. Mountain West home underdogs of 6 or less points are 5-9 versus spread.
•Situational Trends of The Day
-- UTAH ST is 14-3 ATS (+10.7 Units) after 3 straight games forcing opponent to commit 11 or less turnovers over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was UTAH ST 71.3, OPPONENT 62.7.
-- SAN DIEGO ST is 13-2 UNDER (+10.8 Units) after 3 or more consecutive wins this season.
The average score was SAN DIEGO ST 72.1, OPPONENT 56.6.
-- WICHITA ST is 10-1 (+8.9 Units) against the 1rst half line after 2 straight games forcing opponent to commit 11 or less turnovers over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was WICHITA ST 33.6, OPPONENT 26.7.
-- OHIO ST is 20-4 UNDER (+15.6 Units) the 1rst half total after 2 straight games with 9 or less offensive rebounds over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was OHIO ST 29.8, OPPONENT 28.1.
-- ANTHONY GRANT is 12-1 UNDER (+10.9 Units) after a game where they made 50% of their 3 point shots or better as the coach of ALABAMA.
The average score was GRANT 58.5, OPPONENT 54.8.
•Matchup Trends of The Day
-- WYOMING is 11-1 ATS (+9.9 Units) versus excellent foul drawing teams - attempting >=28 free throws/game since 1997.
The average score was WYOMING 75.5, OPPONENT 71.8.
-- NOTRE DAME is 11-1 UNDER (+9.9 Units) versus teams who are called for 17 or less fouls/game over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was NOTRE DAME 64.5, OPPONENT 61.7.
-- TENNESSEE is 14-3 (+10.7 Units) against the 1rst half line versus good rebounding teams - outrebounding opponents by 4+ per game over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was TENNESSEE 34.5, OPPONENT 29.5.
-- NOTRE DAME is 11-1 UNDER (+9.9 Units) the 1rst half total versus teams who are called for 17 or less fouls/game over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was NOTRE DAME 28.9, OPPONENT 30.4.
-- JEFF BZDELIK is 4-19 ATS (-16.9 Units) when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 80%) after 15 or more games as the coach of WAKE FOREST.
The average score was BZDELIK 60.3, OPPONENT 76.8.
•Situation Analysis of The Day
-- Play On - Road teams as an underdog or pick (OKLAHOMA ST) - after being beaten by the spread by 48 or more points total in their last ten games against opponent after going under the total by 24 or more points total in their last three games.
(35-9 over the last 5 seasons.) (79.5%, +25.1 units. Rating = 3*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is: (15-31 over the last 5 seasons.)
The average line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 10
The average score in these games was: Team 64.1, Opponent 69.1 (Average point differential = -5)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 18 (39.1% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (4-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (20-5).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (58-30).
-- Play Against - A road team (SAN DIEGO ST) - excellent defensive team (<=40%) against a good defensive team (40-42.5%) after 15+ games, after 2 straight games making 50% of their shots or better.
(34-9 over the last 5 seasons.) (79.1%, +24.1 units. Rating = 3*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is: (27-17 over the last 5 seasons.)
The average line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 0.8
The average score in these games was: Team 69.7, Opponent 65.8 (Average point differential = +3.9)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 13 (30.2% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (3-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (20-5).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (67-49).
-- Play On - Home underdogs versus the 1rst half line (WYOMING) - good defensive team (40-42.5%) against an excellent defensive team (<=40%), after having covered 4 or 5 of their last 6 against the spread, a good team (60% to 80%) playing a team with a winning record.
(92-46 over the last 5 seasons.) (66.7%, +41.4 units. Rating = 3*)
The average first half line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 2
The average first half score in these games was: Team 32, Opponent 32.1 (Average first half point differential = -0.1)
The situation's record this season is: (11-5).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (61-21).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (254-203).
-- Play On - Home underdogs versus the 1rst half line (TENNESSEE) - excellent ball handling team - committing <=12 turnovers/game, after a cover as a double digit favorite against opponent off 3 or more consecutive home wins.
(27-8 since 1997.) (77.1%, +18.2 units. Rating = 2*)
The average first half line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 2.3
The average first half score in these games was: Team 32.7, Opponent 32.2 (Average first half point differential = +0.4)
The situation's record this season is: (0-1).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (5-4).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (9-5).
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Tuesday's Match-ups
#515 OKLAHOMA ST @ #516 TEXAS
(TV: 7:00 PM EST, ESPN2 - Line: Texas -3.5, Total: N/A) - Struggling Oklahoma State will be without suspended guard Marcus Smart when it visits No. 19 Texas on Tuesday. Smart was suspended for three games for shoving a fan during the final seconds of a loss to Texas Tech on Saturday – a defeat that was the fourth straight and fifth in six games for a team billed as a Final Four contender. The Longhorns reside in second place in the Big 12 and will be looking to rebound from a 74-57 loss to Kansas State.
Smart apologized for his actions in a Sunday press conference, saying in part: “This is a lesson I’ll have to learn from. The consequences that are coming with it, I’m taking full responsibility. No finger pointing. This is all upon me.” Texas had a seven-game winning streak snapped with the loss to Kansas State and lost to the Cowboys 87-74 earlier this season when Smart had 24 points, 11 rebounds, six steals and five assists.
•ABOUT OKLAHOMA STATE (16-7 SU, 8-11-0 ATS, 4-6 Big 12): Losing Smart’s production (17.5 points, 4.3 assists, 53 steals) is a mighty blow and players like guard Markel Brown (16.6) and forward Le’Bryan Nash (14.5) will be asked to be even bigger contributors. Sharpshooter Phil Forte (12.3) has made a team-best 64 3-pointers and his ability to stretch the defense becomes more crucial without an athletic penetrator like Smart. Oklahoma State scored a season-worst 61 points in the loss to Texas Tech, well below its season average of 82.8.
•ABOUT TEXAS (18-5 SU, 10-10-0 ATS, 7-3 Big 12): Leading scorer Jonathan Holmes (13.1) will be a game-time decision after injuring his right knee in the loss to Kansas State. Holmes played only nine minutes in the defeat and underwent an MRI exam on Sunday. The junior forward was playing well before the injury – he averaged 21 points in his previous two games – and also had a double-double with 10 points and 12 rebounds in the first meeting against Oklahoma State.
•PREGAME NOTES: Oklahoma State has won the last four meetings and Brown scored a season-best 27 points in last month’s victory.... Texas G Isaiah Taylor (12.3) is averaging 19.5 points over the last four games, including outings of 27 points against Baylor and 23 versus Kansas.... Nash had just two points on 1-of-5 shooting in the earlier contest against Texas.... The Cowboys are 5-14 versus the spread when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games over the last two seasons, including 2-10 ATS when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 80%) after 15 or more games.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, OKLAHOMA ST covered the spread 712 times, while TEXAS covered the spread 288 times. *EDGE against the spread =OKLAHOMA ST. In 1000 simulated games, OKLAHOMA ST won the game straight up 603 times, while TEXAS won 368 times. In 1000 simulated games, OKLAHOMA ST covered the first half line 643 times, while TEXAS covered the first half line 315 times. *EDGE against first half line =OKLAHOMA ST.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--TEXAS is 19-17 against the spread versus OKLAHOMA ST since 1997.
--TEXAS is 24-15 straight up against OKLAHOMA ST since 1997.
--18 of 30 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL since 1997.
--OKLAHOMA ST is 20-19 versus the first half line when playing against TEXAS since 1997.
--15 of 29 games in this series have gone OVER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1997.
--Cowboys are 4-0-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
--Cowboys are 3-7-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings in Texas.
--Over is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings.
--Under is 10-2 in the last 12 meetings in Texas.
--Favorite is 8-2-2 ATS in the last 12 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--OKST is 1-8 ATS in their last 9 road games.
--OKST is 8-0-1 ATS in their last 9 Tue. games.
--Over is 5-1 in OKST last 6 vs. Big 12.
--Under is 4-1 in TEX last 5 vs. Big 12.
--Under is 8-2 in TEX last 10 Tue. games.
--Over is 12-5 in TEX last 17 home games.
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#517 CLEMSON @ #518 NOTRE DAME
(TV: 7:00 PM EST, RSN - Line: Notre Dame -4.5, Total: N/A) - In its first game in the Atlantic Coast Conference, Notre Dame knocked off nationally-ranked Duke in front of its home crowd, setting up high expectations for coach Mike Brey's team. Unfortunately, those expectations have yet to be met, as the Irish have struggled to a 3-7 league record since that victory, including going 2-3 at Purcell Pavilion. Things don't get easier with Clemson coming to town Tuesday, as the Tigers have a 6-4 mark in league play and come off a tough loss to Syracuse on Sunday.
Clemson likes to slow the game down, running a very methodical offense and holding opponents to a league-low 55.1 points a game. The Tigers allow opponents to shoot just 38.1 percent from the field, also tops in the ACC. Notre Dame's offense, which averages 73.9 points but has struggled during conference play, needs to be at its best for the Irish to snap their two-game losing streak.
•ABOUT CLEMSON (15-7 SU, 10-7-0 ATS, 6-4 ACC): As good as the Tigers' defense has been this season, their offense has been inconsistent at best. Clemson has scored fewer than 50 points in four of its last nine games, but coach Brad Brownell knows he can't alter his team's personality overnight. “We're not the kind of team that's going to be able to just all of a sudden change,” Brownell told the Greenville News. “This is who we are, so we've got to get eight from this guy and nine from this guy and 10 from this guy and eight from this guy, and (leading scorer) K.J. (McDaniels) has got to give us his 16 or 18. That's just who we are and probably how we're going to have to play.”
•ABOUT NOTRE DAME (12-12 SU, 7-14-1 ATS, 3-8 ACC): One of the biggest problems for the Irish is rebounding. Notre Dame ranks 12th in the ACC with 35.2 boards per game, and 6-5 swingman Pat Connaughton is nearly the team's top man on the boards with 7.5 a contest. “I don't know if he should be our leading rebounder all the time,” Brey told the South Bend Tribune after Connaughton had 10 against North Carolina Saturday while four Notre Dame big men combined for 12. “I love that he gets double-figure rebounds, but we could use some more out of some of these other guys on the backboard.”
•PREGAME NOTES: Despite their deficiencies on the glass, the Irish have two of the top six board men in the ACC in Garrick Sherman (7.9) and Connaughton.... The Tigers are trying to win a road game on one day's rest for the first time since beating North Carolina State in 2008.... This is the first meeting between the two schools in basketball. A Clemson win would make the Tigers only the second team in history to win its first football and basketball games at Notre Dame.... The Fighting Irish are 0-6 against the spread versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing less than 14 turnovers/game after 15+ games this season.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, NOTRE DAME covered the spread 527 times, while CLEMSON covered the spread 473 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, NOTRE DAME won the game straight up 627 times, while CLEMSON won 348 times. In 1000 simulated games, CLEMSON covered the first half line 513 times, while NOTRE DAME covered the first half line 487 times. *No EDGE.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
All games in this series since 1997: There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
•RECENT TRENDS
--CLEM is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 Tuesday games.
--CLEM is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 vs. Atlantic Coast.
--Under is 5-2 in CLEM last 7 vs. Atlantic Coast.
--ND is 3-12-1 ATS in their last 16 home games.
--ND is 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games overall.
--Under is 4-1 in ND last 5 vs. Atlantic Coast.
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#519 WAKE FOREST @ #520 N CAROLINA ST
(TV: 7:00 PM EST, ESPNU - Line: N Carolina State -5.5, Total: N/A) - T.J. Warren continues showing why he belongs in the discussion of top player in the ACC, and as his North Carolina State squad prepares to host Wake Forest on Tuesday, the sophomore forward looks to continue a strong season that has him on top of the conference in scoring. Warren recorded 19 of his 27 points in the second half to help the Wolfpack survive against stubborn Miami on Saturday, his sixth consecutive game of 20-plus points and the fifth time in six contests Warren has made at least half of his field-goal attempts. Wake Forest has not played since an 83-63 loss at Duke on Feb. 4, the first of a five-game stretch in which the Demon Deacons play four times away from home.
Wake Forest has dropped to 10th in the conference standings thanks to a three-game losing streak. Leading scorer Codi Miller-McIntyre did not play against Duke due to a sprained right ankle, but is expected to return to the lineup against the Wolfpack. N.C. State comes in having won four of its past five contests, and a victory would be beneficial given the Wolfpack play four of their next six on the road, including trips to top-ranked Syracuse and Pittsburgh.
•ABOUT WAKE FOREST (14-9 SU, 9-10-0 ATS, 4-6 ACC): Sophomore Devin Thomas ranks second in the ACC in rebounding at eight boards per contest, and is second to Miller-McIntyre on the Demon Deacons in scoring at 11.4. Arnaud William Adala Moto recorded his second double-double of the season against Duke, scoring 10 points with 10 rebounds. Miller-McIntyre, who missed the second half of Wake Forest’s loss to Georgia Tech before sitting out the Duke game, averages 14.4 points and ranks in the top 10 in the ACC in field-goal percentage, assists and assists-to-turnover ratio.
•ABOUT N.C. STATE (15-8 SU, 9-10-1 ATS, 5-5 ACC): Warren has been fantastic for the Wolfpack, averaging 22.6 points while shooting 51.7 percent from the field. Ralston Turner gave N.C. State 16 first-half points against Miami, but only tallied one field goal in the second half as Warren shouldered the bulk of the scoring load. Anthony Barber is seventh in the league in assists at four per contest.
•PREGAME NOTES: Wake Forest G Coron Williams had not committed a turnover in 221 minutes of ACC play until the Duke game.... The contest features two of the bottom three 3-point shooting teams in the league: Wake Forest is 13th at 31.5 percent; N.C. State is last at 29.2 percent.... The Wolfpack lead the all-time series 137-101, and have met at least twice a season since 1915-16.... Wake Forest is 1-9 versus the spread when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 80%) after 15 or more games over the last two seasons.... NC State is 0-7 against the spread after covering two of their last three against the spread this season.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, WAKE FOREST covered the spread 508 times, while NC STATE covered the spread 492 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, NC STATE won the game straight up 641 times, while WAKE FOREST won 326 times. In 1000 simulated games, WAKE FOREST covered the first half line 479 times, while NC STATE covered the first half line 467 times. *No EDGE.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--NC STATE is 22-16 against the spread versus WAKE FOREST since 1997.
--WAKE FOREST is 20-18 straight up against NC STATE since 1997.
--16 of 30 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1997.
-NC STATE is 19-19 versus the first half line when playing against WAKE FOREST since 1997.
-16 of 30 games in this series have gone OVER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1997.
--Underdog is 15-7 ATS in the last 22 meetings.
--Demon Deacons are 6-18 ATS in the last 24 meetings.
--Demon Deacons are 1-4 ATS in the last 5 meetings in N.C. State.
•RECENT TRENDS
--WAKE is 4-10 ATS in their last 14 road games.
--WAKE is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 vs. Atlantic Coast.
--Over is 4-1 in WAKE last 5 Tuesday games.
--NCST is 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 home games.
--NCST is 0-5-1 ATS L6 games following a ATS win.
--Over is 5-1 in NCST last 6 games following a ATS win.
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#521 FLORIDA @ #522 TENNESSEE
(TV: 7:00 PM EST, ESPN - Line: Florida -1, Total: N/A) - Florida is coasting through SEC play and will carry a 15-game winning streak into Tuesday's visit to Tennessee. The No. 4 Gators own one of the top scoring defenses in the country and snapped a string of six straight games scoring in the 60s with a 78-69 triumph over Alabama on Saturday. The Volunteers are one of a few teams in the SEC looking for a signature win and could get one against Florida.
Tennessee has won three of its last four games but was stymied by the Gators in a 67-41 loss Jan. 25. The 41 points were 17 less that the Volunteers’ previous season low, and they have put up an average of 73.5 points in the four games since. Florida showed how efficient it could be on offense by shooting 62 percent from the field Saturday, led by Scottie Wilbekin’s 16 points on 5-of-7 shooting. Tennessee is coming off a strong effort in a 72-53 win over South Carolina.
•ABOUT FLORIDA (21-2 SU, 9-9-1 ATS, 10-0 SEC): The Gators are known for their defense but set a blistering pace offensively against Alabama, with the starters combining to shoot 67.5 percent from the field. Casey Prather went 7-for-11 in 33 minutes as he works his way back from an ankle injury that sapped some of his scoring prowess last week. The senior forward totaled 12 points in the previous two games and was limited to 21 minutes in each of those contests. Prather went 5-for-7 from the field in the first meeting with the Volunteers while the Florida defense limited them to 26.8 percent shooting.
•ABOUT TENNESSEE (15-8 SU, 13-8-0 ATS, 6-4 SEC): The Volunteers are tied for fourth place in the SEC, one game behind third-place Mississippi and two back of Kentucky. Tennessee has yet to provide the NCAA Tournament selection committee with overwhelming evidence that it belongs in the field of 68, but a home win over Florida could certainly raise some eyebrows. In order for that to happen, the Volunteers will need to figure out how to get leading scorer Jordan McRae through the Gators' defense. The senior guard, who averages 19.3 points, was held to a season-low five on 1-of-15 shooting in the first meeting.
•PREGAME NOTES: McRae is averaging 23 points in the four games since being shut down by the Gators.... Tennessee earned a 64-58 home victory over a top-10 Florida team last season behind 27 points from McRae.... The Gators are beginning a stretch of five of seven games on the road, including a trip to Kentucky on Saturday.... The Volunteers are 14-3 against the spread versus good rebounding teams - outrebounding opponents by 4+ per game over the last two seasons.... Florida is 12-3 versus the spread off 2 no-covers where the team won straight up as a favorite since 1997.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, TENNESSEE covered the spread 522 times, while FLORIDA covered the spread 456 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, TENNESSEE won the game straight up 478 times, while FLORIDA won 478 times. In 1000 simulated games, TENNESSEE covered the first half line 523 times, while FLORIDA covered the first half line 477 times. *No EDGE.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--TENNESSEE is 18-14 against the spread versus FLORIDA since 1997.
--TENNESSEE is 18-15 straight up against FLORIDA since 1997.
--14 of 28 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1997.
--TENNESSEE is 16-15 versus the first half line when playing against FLORIDA since 1997.
--16 of 28 games in this series have gone OVER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1997.
--Gators are 8-17 ATS in the last 25 meetings.
--Gators are 3-9 ATS in the last 12 meetings in Tennessee.
--Under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in Tennessee.
--Underdog is 5-2 ATS in the last 7 meetings.
--Home team is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--Under is 7-1 in FLA last 8 Tue. games.
--Under is 23-8-1 in FLA last 32 overall.
--Under is 15-5-1 in FLA last 21 vs. Southeastern.
--TENN is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games.
--TENN is 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games overall.
--TENN is 16-5 ATS in their last 21 vs. Southeastern.
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#523 MARQUETTE @ #524 SETON HALL
(TV: 7:00 PM EST, Fox Sports 1 - Line: Seton Hall -2, Total: N/A) - Marquette will look to win consecutive games for the first time in nearly two months when it visits Seton Hall on Tuesday in a Big East Conference matchup. The Golden Eagles' streak of eight consecutive NCAA Tournament appearances is in jeopardy after alternating wins and losses in 12 games since posting back-to-back victories Dec. 14 and Dec. 17. Marquette nearly squandered a 16-point second-half lead before holding on for a 67-66 victory over the visiting Pirates exactly one month ago.
Seton Hall is kicking off a three-game homestand but it has actually played better on the road, earning three of its four conference wins away from home. That was not the case in a lopsided loss at No. 6 Villanova on Saturday, when the Pirates scored a season-low 53 points to deny their bid for back-to-back wins for the first time since a three-game run to close out December. Seton Hall has lost 12 of 14 all-time meetings to the Golden Eagles - the last win coming at Marquette in March 2011.
•ABOUT MARQUETTE (13-10 SU, 8-12-1 ATS, 5-5 Big East): Coach Buzz Williams continues to search for a consistent starting unit, fielding his sixth different lineup in a 69-62 victory over Butler on Feb. 4. Todd Mayo supplied a spark off the bench, scoring all 17 points in the second half to bounce back from a zero-point, four-turnover struggle in his previous outing. Jamil Wilson, who is second to Davante Gardner in scoring (11.5 points) and rebounding (5.3), had his only double-double of the season in last month's meeting versus the Pirates with 16 points and 11 boards.
•ABOUT SETON HALL (13-10 SU, 11-11-0 ATS, 4-6 Big East): Fuquan Edwin was battling a knee injury in the previous matchup with Marquette and was limited to seven points, but returned to the starting lineup and averaged 20.8 points in a five-game span before being held to eight points at Villanova. Brian Oliver had a team-high 15 points against the Golden Eagles, but has been in an offensive tailspin, averaging six points over the past three games. Burly forward Gene Teague did not play against Marquette last month and Seton Hall will need his big body to go against Gardner and Wilson inside.
•PREGAME NOTES: Marquette allows a Big East-low 65 points, but also ranks last in the conference in scoring (70.4).... Edwin's 275 career steals are second to Ohio State's Aaron Craft (307) among the NCAA's career list among active players.... Williams (135-64) will be coaching his 200th career game at Marquette.... Seton Hall is 1-9 versus the spread in home games versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 4+ points/game over the last two seasons.... Marquette is 31-15 against the spread in road games versus teams who attempt 21 or more 3-point shots/game on the season since 1997.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, SETON HALL covered the spread 520 times, while MARQUETTE covered the spread 446 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, SETON HALL won the game straight up 587 times, while MARQUETTE won 376 times. In 1000 simulated games, SETON HALL covered the first half line 502 times, while MARQUETTE covered the first half line 452 times. *No EDGE.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--SETON HALL is 6-6 against the spread versus MARQUETTE since 1997.
--MARQUETTE is 12-1 straight up against SETON HALL since 1997.
--7 of 11 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL since 1997.
--SETON HALL is 6-6 versus the first half line when playing against MARQUETTE since 1997.
--6 of 11 games in this series have gone UNDER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1997.
--Golden Eagles are 1-4 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
--Golden Eagles are 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings in Seton Hall.
--Under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings.
--Road team is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--MARQ is 2-11-1 ATS in their last 14 vs. Big East.
--MARQ is 2-9-1 ATS in their last 12 games overall.
--Over is 8-3-1 in MARQ last 12 road games.
--HALL is 11-3 ATS in their last 14 Tue. games.
--HALL is 7-19-1 ATS in their last 27 home games.
--Under is 6-2 in HALL last 8 Tue. games.
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#525 S ILLINOIS @ #526 WICHITA ST
(TV: 8:00 PM EST, WSIU (Southern Illinois), KS 22 (Wichita) - Line: Wichita State -17, Total: N/A) - Second-ranked Wichita State tries to become the first 26-0 team since Memphis in 2007-08 when it hosts Southern Illinois on Tuesday, and hopes to avoid some of the drama that accompanied Saturday's 82-73 victory at Northern Iowa. The Shockers received a pair of scares when their top two players - senior forward Cleanthony Early (team bests of 16.3 points and 6.2 rebounds per game) and sophomore point guard Fred VanVleet (12 points, team-best 5.2 assists) - left the game. Early injured his shoulder in the opening minute and appeared to be in great discomfort while VanVleet twisted his knee in the second half, but both quickly returned.
While the pressure builds on Wichita State as it seeks to become the first team to go undefeated since Indiana went 32-0 in 1976, VanVleet is taking it in stride. "Twenty-five games in, it comes with the territory. We've been through it every game. Everybody wants to knock you off," VanVleet told reporters. Southern Illinois, which lost to the Shockers 82-67 on Jan. 2, has won four straight games by an average of 14.5 points after a 72-54 victory over Missouri State on Saturday.
•ABOUT SOUTHERN ILLINOIS (10-15 SU, 11-12-0 ATS, 6-6 Missouri Valley Conference): Sophomore guard Anthony Beane (13 points per game) has been the driving force behind the win streak, averaging 23.8 points and prompting coach Barry Hinson to tell reporters: "Number 25 is playing pretty good right now." The Salukis are led in scoring by senior guard Desmar Jackson, who averages 19.7 points and shoots 48.9 percent from the field. Southern Illinois typically plays a 2-3 zone but allowed its second-fewest points of the season against Missouri State by utilizing a man-to-man defense, a move that if repeated could hinder Wichita State's sharpshooters.
•ABOUT WICHITA STATE (25-0 SU, 16-5-1 ATS, 12-0 Missouri Valley Conference): While Early and VanVleet receive most of the attention, junior guard Tekele Cotton (9.9 points per game) - known more for his slashing style - has re-emerged as an outside shooting threat. “He was great; he was confident,” coach Gregg Marshall told The Wichita Eagle about Cotton, who scored 18 points against Northern Iowa and is averaging 14.7 points in his last three contests while going 8-for-14 from 3-point range. “People aren’t playing him, they’re backing off. We want him to shoot the ball.” Sophomore guard Ron Baker (12.6 points) is 2-for-15 from beyond the arc in his last three games.
•PREGAME NOTES: The Shockers are ninth in the country in rebounding margin at plus-8.4 and average 39.6 boards compared to the Salukis' 32.8.... Beane on Monday became the first back-to-back winner of the MVC Player of the Week award this season.... Wichita State and No. 1 Syracuse (23-0) are the only undefeated teams in the country.... Southern Illinois is 9-1 versus the spread revenging a same season loss versus opponent over the last two seasons.... The Shockers are 14-5 against the spread versus good shooting teams - making more than 45% of their shots after 15+ games over the last two seasons.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, S ILLINOIS covered the spread 548 times, while WICHITA ST covered the spread 421 times. *EDGE against the spread =S ILLINOIS. In 1000 simulated games, WICHITA ST won the game straight up 865 times, while S ILLINOIS won 119 times. In 1000 simulated games, S ILLINOIS covered the first half line 627 times, while WICHITA ST covered the first half line 373 times. *EDGE against first half line =S ILLINOIS.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--S ILLINOIS is 21-10 against the spread versus WICHITA ST since 1997.
--S ILLINOIS is 21-12 straight up against WICHITA ST since 1997.
--9 of 17 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL since 1997.
--S ILLINOIS is 21-11 versus the first half line when playing against WICHITA ST since 1997.
--9 of 17 games in this series have gone OVER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1997.
--Salukis are 17-5 ATS in the last 22 meetings.
--Salukis are 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings in Wichita St.
--Over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--SIU is 3-7 ATS in their last 10 road games.
--SIU is 21-8 ATS in their last 29 Tue. games.
--Under is 5-1 in SIU last 6 road games.
--WICH is 9-4-1 ATS in their last 14 home games.
--Under is 9-2 in WICH last 11 Tue. games.
--Under is 35-16 in WICH last 51 home games.
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#527 MICHIGAN @ #528 OHIO ST
(TV: 9:00 PM EST, ESPN - Line: Ohio State -3.5, Total: N/A) - Ohio State attempts to continue its recent turnaround and No. 18 Michigan seeks to rebound from a bad loss when the No. 20 Buckeyes visit the Wolverines in Big Ten play on Tuesday. Ohio State has strung together three straight victories after a stretch during which it lost five of six games and is tied for fourth place in the conference. Michigan is tied for first with Michigan State but never was in the contest while being routed 85-67 by Iowa on Saturday.
Buckeyes point guard Aaron Craft was named Big Ten Player of the Week after helping lead the resurgence, but coach Thad Matta remains cautious after the January plunge. “You like to feel good, but right now one bad segment can cost you the game,” Matta said after Saturday’s win over Purdue. “I hope our guys are feeling better about what we’re doing, why were doing it and how we’re doing it.” The Wolverines’ margin of defeat against Iowa was their largest since also losing by 18 to Wisconsin during the 2009-10 campaign.
•ABOUT MICHIGAN (17-6 SU, 11-9-1 ATS, 9-2 Big Ten): Guard Caris LeVert has been the squad’s most reliable player of late with five straight double-digit performances to raise his season mark to 12.6, third on the team behind guard Nik Stauskas (17) and forward Glenn Robinson III (13.1). LeVert is averaging 16.2 points and 6.8 rebounds during the stretch, and his 22-point effort against Iowa was his fifth 20-point outing of the campaign. Backup guard Zak Irvin (7.5) also is playing well as he knocked down four 3-pointers in each of the last two games while averaging 17.5 points.
•ABOUT OHIO STATE (19-5 SU, 12-11-0 ATS, 6-5 Big Ten): Guard Lenzelle Smith Jr. made four 3-pointers while scoring 16 points against Purdue and has made 14 of his team-best 41 3-pointers over the last six games. He ranks second on the squad in scoring (12) behind forward LaQuinton Ross (14.2), and the Buckeyes are 7-0 this season when he makes three or more 3-pointers. “It feels great because if I can show my team I can make 3-pointers, I know they are going to look for me,” Smith said. “I don’t have to worry about anything but getting my feet set and shooting the ball.”
•PREGAME NOTES: Ohio State has won eight of the last 10 meetings.... Stauskas is averaging just 8.3 points on 5-of-15 shooting over the last three games.... Craft ranks seventh all-time in Big Ten history with 646 career assists after passing former Michigan State star Scott Skiles on Saturday.... The Wolverines are 15-5 versus the spread after one or more consecutive losses over the last three seasons.... The Buckeyes are 11-3 against the spread after four straight games committing 14 or less turnovers this season.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, MICHIGAN covered the spread 511 times, while OHIO ST covered the spread 489 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, OHIO ST won the game straight up 579 times, while MICHIGAN won 383 times. In 1000 simulated games, MICHIGAN covered the first half line 497 times, while OHIO ST covered the first half line 454 times. *No EDGE.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--OHIO ST is 18-16 against the spread versus MICHIGAN since 1997.
--OHIO ST is 24-10 straight up against MICHIGAN since 1997.
--15 of 28 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL since 1997.
--MICHIGAN is 20-12 versus the first half line when playing against OHIO ST since 1997.
--15 of 28 games in this series have gone OVER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1997.
--Underdog is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings.
--Wolverines are 1-4 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
--Under is 3-0-1 in the last 4 meetings in Ohio St.
•RECENT TRENDS
--MICH is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 Tuesday games.
--Over is 18-7-1 in MICH last 26 road games.
--Under is 5-2 in MICH L7 games following a ATS loss.
--OSU is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 Tuesday games.
--OSU is 11-5 ATS in their last 16 vs. Big Ten.
--Over is 4-0 in OSU last 4 Tuesday games.
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#529 MISSISSIPPI @ #530 ALABAMA
(TV: 9:00 PM EST, ESPNU - Line: Alabama -3.5, Total: N/A) - Mississippi sits one game out of second place in the Southeastern Conference but cannot afford a slip-up when it visits Alabama on Tuesday. The Rebels enhanced their NCAA Tournament hopes with a narrow home win over Missouri on Saturday, the school's first victory over a team with a top-50 RPI rating. It was the latest in a string of nail-biters for Ole Miss, which has gone 7-4 in games decided by five points or fewer and prevailed in its last three such contests.
The Crimson Tide have dropped four in a row and six of their last seven games following Saturday's 78-69 setback at fourth-ranked Florida. Although offense has been an issue for much of the season, Alabama shot 55 percent Saturday, only to see the Gators connect on a scorching 62 percent of their shots to keep the Crimson Tide winless in 10 games away from home. The teams have split the series in 11 of the last 14 years, with Mississippi squeezing out a four-point home win in last season's only meeting.
•ABOUT MISSISSIPPI (16-7 SU, 7-10-2 ATS, 7-3 SEC): The Rebels won for the sixth time in eight games behind 29 points from Marshall Henderson, who knocked down eight of the team's 14 3-pointers against Missouri. Henderson is averaging 23 points over his last four games to boost his season total to a team-high 19.6 and is joined in double figures by Jarvis Summers (17.6), who is shooting 50 percent both overall and from behind the arc. Sophomore guard Ladarius White is becoming a reliable third scoring option, tying his season high with 16 points Saturday and averaging 13 in his last three.
•ABOUT ALABAMA (9-14 SU, 7-12-1 ATS, 3-7 SEC): Although the Crimson Tide failed to reach 60 points in three consecutive games, they shot 61 percent in the first half and had Florida on the ropes early but were unable to keep pace after intermission. Senior guard Trevor Releford is coming off his eighth 20-point effort of the season, scoring 25 to move into 10th place on the school's all-time list with 1,702 points. "This program can't do anything but go up," Releford told reporters. "It's just a process. Right now we're losing a game, but I feel as a team we're getting better."
•PREGAME NOTES: Henderson has hit at least one 3-pointer in 56 straight games, the third-longest streak in SEC history.... Alabama is 70-10 at home against Ole Miss.... The Rebels are averaging 12 fewer points (68.2) on the road than at home (80.2).... The Crimson Tide are 15-6 against the spread versus good ball handling teams - committing less than 14 turnovers/game after 15+ games over the last two seasons.... Ole Miss is 58-36 versus the spread after one or more consecutive overs since 1997, including 46-27 ATS after scoring 80 points or more.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, OLE MISS covered the spread 545 times, while ALABAMA covered the spread 455 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, ALABAMA won the game straight up 548 times, while OLE MISS won 429 times. In 1000 simulated games, OLE MISS covered the first half line 503 times, while ALABAMA covered the first half line 442 times. *No EDGE.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--ALABAMA is 18-13 against the spread versus OLE MISS since 1997.
--ALABAMA is 16-16 straight up against OLE MISS since 1997.
--12 of 22 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1997.
--ALABAMA is 18-12 versus the first half line when playing against OLE MISS since 1997.
--12 of 22 games in this series have gone UNDER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1997.
--Rebels are 4-10 ATS in the last 14 meetings in Alabama.
--Over is 7-2-1 in the last 10 meetings.
--Over is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings in Alabama.
--Underdog is 7-2-1 ATS in the last 10 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--MISS is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games.
--Over is 16-7 in MISS last 23 Tue. games.
--Under is 9-4 in MISS last 13 road games.
--ALA is 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 home games.
--ALA is 4-11-1 ATS in their last 16 games overall.
--Over is 7-0 in ALA last 7 home games.
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#531 XAVIER @ #532 BUTLER
(TV: 9:00 PM EST, Fox Sports 1 - Line: Xavier -1, Total: N/A) - Xavier looks to remain in third place in the Big East standings when it begins a road-heavy stretch of the schedule at Butler on Tuesday. The Musketeers snapped a three-game slide with a 59-53 win over Providence on Saturday, getting 13 points apiece from Justin Martin and Matt Stainbrook. The visit to Hinkle Fieldhouse is one of four road games in the next five overall for Xavier, which is 1-3 away from home in conference play.
The Bulldogs are coming off the latest in a series of close losses, dropping a 71-63 decision at Georgetown on Saturday. It marked the eighth time in 11 Big East matchups that Butler has had a game decided by single digits, but it is just 2-6 in those contests and faded a bit against the Hoyas after pulling within three midway through the second half and four in the final two minutes. The Bulldogs also swooned late in their first meeting with Xavier, building a seven-point second-half lead before the Musketeers stormed back for a 79-68 victory.
•ABOUT XAVIER (16-7 SU, 13-8-0 ATS, 6-4 Big East): The Musketeers finished at a rare disadvantage on the boards in the win over Providence, just the second time in the last 13 games an opponent has gotten the better of them in that department. Stainbrook had nine rebounds and enters leading the Big East with an average of 9.5 boards in league play, just ahead of Butler's Kameron Woods. Guard Semaj Christon chipped in 12 points but has come down to earth a bit after a torrid five-game stretch during which he averaged 24 points on 66.2 percent shooting, a run that began with a 20-point, eight-assist effort versus the Bulldogs.
•ABOUT BUTLER (12-11 SU, 10-10-1 ATS, 2-9 Big East): The Bulldogs have been held under 70 points eight straight times and rank near the bottom of the conference in several offensive categories, but the struggles on the other end of the court had coach Brandon Miller upset after the loss to Georgetown, which shot 53 percent in the second half. "It was our defense, we couldn't get a stop," Miller told reporters. Butler allowed Xavier's starting five to produce 71 points on 56.8 percent shooting in the initial encounter last month.
•PREGAME NOTES: Butler leads the Big East in 3-point defense, limiting opponents to a 31.1 percent mark from beyond the arc, while Xavier ranks last at 40.9.... Since scoring in double figures in each of his first four Big East games, Musketeers G Dee Davis has averaged only 3.4 points on 29.6 percent shooting in his last five.... Xavier leads the all-time series between the former Midwestern Collegiate Conference and Atlantic-10 foes by a 31-17 margin.... The Musketeers are 10-1 against the spread off a home win this season, including 6-0 ATS after allowing 60 points or less.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, BUTLER covered the spread 511 times, while XAVIER covered the spread 462 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, XAVIER won the game straight up 489 times, while BUTLER won 478 times. In 1000 simulated games, BUTLER covered the first half line 526 times, while XAVIER covered the first half line 474 times. *No EDGE.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--XAVIER is 6-2 against the spread versus BUTLER since 1997.
--XAVIER is 6-3 straight up against BUTLER since 1997.
--5 of 7 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1997.
--BUTLER is 5-4 versus the first half line when playing against XAVIER since 1997.
--4 of 7 games in this series have gone OVER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1997.
--Over is 5-2 in the last 7 meetings.
--Musketeers are 5-0-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--XAV is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 vs. Big East.
--XAV is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 Tuesday games.
--Under is 5-0 in XAV last 5 Tuesday games.
--BUT is 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 vs. Big East.
--BUT is 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 games overall.
--Over is 10-4 in BUT last 14 vs. Big East.
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#535 SAN DIEGO ST @ #536 WYOMING
(TV: 11:05 PM EST, ESPNU - San Diego State -4, Total: N/A) - Fifth-ranked San Diego State attempts to set a school record with its 21st consecutive victory when it visits Wyoming on Tuesday. The Aztecs have won 20 consecutive games since an early-season loss to Arizona to tie the mark of the 2010-11 squad led by Kawhi Leonard and are 10-0 in Mountain West play for the first time. Wyoming is in fifth place in the conference and looking for a turnaround after losing three of its last four games.
San Diego State’s winning streak is the third-longest in the nation behind Wichita State (25) and Syracuse (23), and coach Steve Fisher is stunned that his squad has gone nearly three months without a loss. “I’m surprised that anybody can win 20 in a row, no matter what league they’re playing in,” Fisher said after Saturday’s victory over Nevada. “But the way we’ve played, the people we’ve beaten, I think all of us are going in expecting to win but knowing that life on the road will be very difficult. Sometimes you’ve got to be lucky, and we’ve been lucky a few times.”
•ABOUT SAN DIEGO STATE (21-1 SU, 12-7-0 ATS, 10-0 Mountain West): Senior guard Xavier Thames (18.1 points) is on pace to be the Conference Player of the Year and swingman Winston Shepard also has emerged as a solid player. The sophomore is second on the squad in both scoring (12.9) and steals (24) and had 16 points against Nevada for his 16th double-digit performance of the season. “Sometimes I have tough nights, but my teammates always stay with me and have the ultimate confidence in me,” Shepard said after the win over the Wolf Pack. “I just try to keep playing.”
•ABOUT WYOMING (14-9 SU, 13-6-1 ATS, 5-5 Mountain West): Forward Larry Nance Jr., the squad’s best player, tweaked a groin in Saturday’s loss to UNLV but is expected to play against the Aztecs. The Cowboys certainly need Nance (15.8 points, 8.9 rebounds and 49 blocked shots) on the court to have a shot at pulling off an upset. Guards Josh Adams (11.8) and Riley Grabau (11.1) are the only other players averaging in double digits for a team that produces 65.8 points.
•PREGAME NOTES: The Aztecs have won six of the last seven meetings but are just 8-25 at Wyoming.... The Cowboys’ five conference losses are by a total of 18 points.... Thames is two away from becoming the 29th player to score 1,000 career points at San Diego State.... The Aztecs are 0-6 versus the spread in road games versus slow-down teams averaging 53 or less shots/game over the last two seasons.... Wyoming is 7-1 against the spread versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 4+ points/game this season.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, WYOMING covered the spread 543 times, while SAN DIEGO ST covered the spread 419 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, SAN DIEGO ST won the game straight up 562 times, while WYOMING won 406 times. In 1000 simulated games, WYOMING covered the first half line 528 times, while SAN DIEGO ST covered the first half line 421 times. *No EDGE.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--SAN DIEGO ST is 16-14 against the spread versus WYOMING since 1997.
--SAN DIEGO ST is 18-14 straight up against WYOMING since 1997.
--13 of 21 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1997.
--SAN DIEGO ST is 17-14 versus the first half line when playing against WYOMING since 1997.
--13 of 21 games in this series have gone OVER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1997.
--Aztecs are 6-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings.
--Over is 6-2 in the last 8 meetings.
--Over is 6-2 in the last 8 meetings in Wyoming.
--Favorite is 5-2 ATS in the last 7 meetings.
--Home team is 6-2 ATS in the last 8 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--SDSU is 10-2 ATS in their last 12 Tue. games.
--SDSU is 38-15-2 ATS in their last 55 road games.
--Under is 20-6 in SDSU last 26 overall.
--WYO is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 home games.
--WYO is 13-6-1 ATS in their last 20 games overall.
--Over is 5-0 in WYO last 5 Tuesday games.
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