[h=1]Midseason CBB Vegas Rankings[/h][h=3]Ranking the top 25 teams according to Las Vegas handicappers[/h]By Ted Sevransky | ESPN Insider
As we head down the stretch of conference play, the excitement of the NCAA tournament is looming on the horizon. It's an ideal time to take a look at what the top 25 teams in college basketball look like from Las Vegas' perspective.
Handicappers Wunderdog, Dave Tuley and myself each submitted our personal, private power ratings and averaged them to form the list below. Power ratings from handicappers don't match the polls because, in general, we're not too concerned about individual wins and losses during any given week. Instead, the focus is on overall talent level and a season-long view of the best teams in the country.
The betting markets themselves rely heavily on the computer-generated numbers provided by statistical gurus like Ken Pomeroy and Jeff Sagarin. There's no question that these Vegas power ratings are much more in line with those algorithm-generated numbers than they are with the pollsters' opinions.
A quick primer on how the power ratings work: Our top team has a power rating of 100. If it faced a team rated at 97 on a neutral floor, the system would expect a point spread of minus-3 for the top team. The key is the differential between teams, not the hard numbers themselves. I've taken the liberty of rounding off the numbers to the nearest half point.
Here are the top 25 teams in college basketball, according to Vegas, along with where they stand as of Feb. 10 in terms of Associated Press poll rank and championship odds from the Las Vegas Hotel:
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<!-- begin inline 1 -->[h=4]Midseason College Basketball Vegas Power Rankings[/h]
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[h=3]Overrated by the polls[/h]
Cincinnati stands out as a team that seems a notch or two overrated in the polls, as it sits at 20th in our rankings. The Bearcats have not been covering spreads of late, as they are 2-6 ATS in their past eight ballgames; point-spread struggles are reflected here far more than they are in any mainstream ranking.
The best mid-majors are also a tad bit overrated in the polls at this stage of the season compared to where they are ranked in Vegas. For example, you're not likely to find San Diego State in the top five of any serious bettor's poll. This is not a banner year for the Mountain West Conference, and the Aztecs have been able to beat up on mostly mediocre competition since their signature wins over Kansas and Creighton in nonconference play. Here in Vegas, the Aztecs are considered to be very good but not a top-five squad.
Iowa State is worthy of inclusion in the overrated category as well. The Cyclones are No. 11 in the AP poll, but they are 25-to-1 to win the title at the LVH. Let's not forget that the books took fairly heavy action on the Cyclones at big longshot odds when they opened the season with 14 consecutive victories. That left the books with some liability if Iowa State got hot in March. But with five losses in 11 Big 12 games, the sportsbooks don't seem too concerned about that potential payoff these days.
[h=3]Underrated by the polls[/h]
On the underrated side of the spectrum, Louisville certainly stands out. Ranked in the top three to open the season, the Cardinals have been favored in every lined game that they have played in 2013-14, a testament to their perceived strength in Vegas. While the pollsters have devalued the Cardinals following each of their four losses, the oddsmakers and bettors still view Rick Pitino's squad among the true elites in college basketball this season.
The Big Ten elites have been beating up on one another, keeping all the top teams in the conference from rising in the polls. For evidence of this effect, look no further than Ohio State, a team with five losses in conference play. But gutty, gritty back-to-back road wins at nationally ranked Wisconsin and Iowa last week illustrate the Buckeyes' enormous potential.
I feel obliged to include Kentucky on the underrated list as well. The Wildcats are ranked No. 14 in the AP poll, and they have suffered five losses this season, the last two coming against unranked foes. Here in Vegas, Kentucky is still 8-to-1 to win it all, the same odds as Arizona and Syracuse, our top two teams. Vegas power ratings reflect potential as well as production, and John Calipari's squad certainly has championship-level talent.
As we head down the stretch of conference play, the excitement of the NCAA tournament is looming on the horizon. It's an ideal time to take a look at what the top 25 teams in college basketball look like from Las Vegas' perspective.
Handicappers Wunderdog, Dave Tuley and myself each submitted our personal, private power ratings and averaged them to form the list below. Power ratings from handicappers don't match the polls because, in general, we're not too concerned about individual wins and losses during any given week. Instead, the focus is on overall talent level and a season-long view of the best teams in the country.
The betting markets themselves rely heavily on the computer-generated numbers provided by statistical gurus like Ken Pomeroy and Jeff Sagarin. There's no question that these Vegas power ratings are much more in line with those algorithm-generated numbers than they are with the pollsters' opinions.
A quick primer on how the power ratings work: Our top team has a power rating of 100. If it faced a team rated at 97 on a neutral floor, the system would expect a point spread of minus-3 for the top team. The key is the differential between teams, not the hard numbers themselves. I've taken the liberty of rounding off the numbers to the nearest half point.
Here are the top 25 teams in college basketball, according to Vegas, along with where they stand as of Feb. 10 in terms of Associated Press poll rank and championship odds from the Las Vegas Hotel:
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<!-- begin inline 1 -->[h=4]Midseason College Basketball Vegas Power Rankings[/h]
| Rank | Team | Vegas power rating | AP Poll Rank | LVH Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arizona Wildcats | 100 | 2 | 8-1 |
| 2 | Syracuse Orange | 99.5 | 1 | 8-1 |
| 3 | Duke Blue Devils | 99 | 8 | 12-1 |
| T4 | Louisville Cardinals | 98.5 | 13 | 15-1 |
| T4 | Florida Gators | 98.5 | 3 | 5-1 |
| T6 | Kansas Jayhawks | 98 | 7 | 7-1 |
| T6 | Villanova Wildcats | 98 | 6 | 20-1 |
| 8 | Michigan State Spartans | 97 | 9 | 7-1 |
| T9 | Iowa Hawkeyes | 96.5 | 16 | 25-1 |
| T9 | Wichita State Shockers | 96.5 | 4 | 12-1 |
| T11 | Michigan Wolverines | 96 | 15 | 25-1 |
| T11 | UCLA Bruins | 96 | NR | 75-1 |
| 13 | Virginia Cavaliers | 95.5 | 17 | 30-1 |
| T14 | Creighton Bluejays | 95 | 18 | 35-1 |
| T14 | Iowa State Cyclones | 95 | 11 | 25-1 |
| T16 | Pittsburgh Panthers | 94.5 | 25 | 75-1 |
| T16 | San Diego State Aztecs | 94.5 | 5 | 40-1 |
| T18 | SMU Mustangs | 94 | 23 | N/A (Field 60-1) |
| T18 | Kentucky Wildcats | 94 | 14 | 8-1 |
| T20 | VCU Rams | 93.5 | NR | 100-1 |
| T20 | Cincinnati Bearcats | 93.5 | 10 | 75-1 |
| T22 | Connecticut Huskies | 93 | 24 | 100-1 |
| T22 | Ohio State Buckeyes | 93 | 22 | 30-1 |
| T22 | Wisconsin Badgers | 93 | 21 | 40-1 |
| T25 | Saint Louis Billikens | 92.5 | 12 | 60-1 |
| T25 | Stanford Cardinal | 92.5 | NR | 300-1 |
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[h=3]Overrated by the polls[/h]
Cincinnati stands out as a team that seems a notch or two overrated in the polls, as it sits at 20th in our rankings. The Bearcats have not been covering spreads of late, as they are 2-6 ATS in their past eight ballgames; point-spread struggles are reflected here far more than they are in any mainstream ranking.
The best mid-majors are also a tad bit overrated in the polls at this stage of the season compared to where they are ranked in Vegas. For example, you're not likely to find San Diego State in the top five of any serious bettor's poll. This is not a banner year for the Mountain West Conference, and the Aztecs have been able to beat up on mostly mediocre competition since their signature wins over Kansas and Creighton in nonconference play. Here in Vegas, the Aztecs are considered to be very good but not a top-five squad.
Iowa State is worthy of inclusion in the overrated category as well. The Cyclones are No. 11 in the AP poll, but they are 25-to-1 to win the title at the LVH. Let's not forget that the books took fairly heavy action on the Cyclones at big longshot odds when they opened the season with 14 consecutive victories. That left the books with some liability if Iowa State got hot in March. But with five losses in 11 Big 12 games, the sportsbooks don't seem too concerned about that potential payoff these days.
[h=3]Underrated by the polls[/h]
On the underrated side of the spectrum, Louisville certainly stands out. Ranked in the top three to open the season, the Cardinals have been favored in every lined game that they have played in 2013-14, a testament to their perceived strength in Vegas. While the pollsters have devalued the Cardinals following each of their four losses, the oddsmakers and bettors still view Rick Pitino's squad among the true elites in college basketball this season.
The Big Ten elites have been beating up on one another, keeping all the top teams in the conference from rising in the polls. For evidence of this effect, look no further than Ohio State, a team with five losses in conference play. But gutty, gritty back-to-back road wins at nationally ranked Wisconsin and Iowa last week illustrate the Buckeyes' enormous potential.
I feel obliged to include Kentucky on the underrated list as well. The Wildcats are ranked No. 14 in the AP poll, and they have suffered five losses this season, the last two coming against unranked foes. Here in Vegas, Kentucky is still 8-to-1 to win it all, the same odds as Arizona and Syracuse, our top two teams. Vegas power ratings reflect potential as well as production, and John Calipari's squad certainly has championship-level talent.
