[h=1]Best bets for NBA championship[/h][h=3]Multiple teams from the West have emerged as worthwhile value plays[/h]By Dave Tuley | ESPN Insider
LAS VEGAS -- It's the NBA All-Star break, but don't get fooled into calling it the halfway point of the season, as most teams have played nearly two-thirds of their regular-season games.
The playoffs are already coming into focus, as we have a relatively short stretch run to sort out the seeds in each conference. The chart below shows how the oddsmakers and bettors at the Las Vegas Hilton SuperBook see the teams shaping up in regard to their future-book odds.
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[h=4]Odds to win 2014 NBA championship[/h]
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</TBODY><!-- end inline 1 -->The Indiana Pacers have taken over the top spot at 9-5 -- just ahead of the Miami Heat at 2-1 -- mostly due to their 2.5-game lead in the East, as they would have home-court advantage if the season were to end today. Those odds would flip if the Heat pass the Pacers before the regular-season finish line.
The next tier of teams (Oklahoma City Thunder at 7-2, San Antonio Spurs and Los Angeles Clippers at 12-1, Golden State Warriors at 15-1 and Houston Rockets at 18-1) have mostly stayed about the same since the preseason, though the Chicago Bulls, New York Knicks and Denver Nuggets have seen their stock drop.
The Portland Trail Blazers continue to be the association's biggest overachiever, as they were 100-1 at the start of the season and now are the No. 8 betting choice at 20-1, and are battling for the No. 3 through 5 seed in the Western Conference.
I've been asked to determine if there are any value bets left in the NBA title futures as we head down the stretch. First, let's look at my "NBA best bets" column from Oct. 25, which was written right before the season started.
My two top recommended plays at the time were on the Indiana Pacers at 15-1 and the Golden State Warriors at 25-1. I stand by those picks at that time, but I wouldn't bet those teams at their current prices (9-5 and 15-1, respectively). Obviously, the preseason was the time to bet the Pacers, with them now having lived up to my expectations and being the overall favorite. The Warriors' current odds might still look appealing to some, but I'd call it an underlay because they're still just the No. 8 seed in the West and are no guarantee to make the playoffs if they falter or the Memphis Grizzlies or Minnesota Timberwolves make a late run.
The Blazers are another underlay in my opinion. If you jumped on their bandwagon early and got a much better price, that's great, but 20-1 or 25-1 doesn't seem like much value now as they still look a notch below the top teams.
So, who do I think is worth a play at this point?
[h=3]Tuley's Takes[/h]
Los Angeles Clippers (12-1): Chris Paul returned after missing a month with his shoulder injury, and I expected the Clippers' odds to drop, but it hasn't happened yet. This is true even with the 45-point rout of the Philadelphia 76ers in Paul's first game back on Feb. 9, and then a win (albeit non-cover) against the Blazers. But at 12-1 (and I've seen the number as high as 15-1 offshore), the time to bet is ASAP if you like them.
Dallas Mavericks (60-1): Looking for a long shot? The Mavs look like the best of those teams outside the top two tiers. They had a five-game win streak snapped by Charlotte, but then showed that they were looking ahead to their game at Indiana the next night and beat the Pacers 81-73 in a statement game. The Mavs seem to be jelling at the right time, and could be a tough out no matter who they face (I would certainly take them in the first round against Houston if those two clubs pair off as No. 3 vs. 6). Again, if you're on board, the time to bet them is now.
That's it. The NBA is usually pretty true to form, so you don't want to go nuts looking for big prices out there. Furthermore, the odds on the other contenders are either too low in relation to their true odds or you can pretty much count on getting those same odds in another two months when the playoffs start (and that also bypasses the injury factor between now and then). The longer shots on the board are unlikely to have what it takes to win a seven-game series, and that's even if they get in the playoffs. You'll also note I didn't even consider any other Eastern Conference teams, as it looks like a waste of money at this point to pick any team but the Pacers or Heat.
However, there are a few other teams in the West you might consider. I just don't think they're offering good value at current prices:
Houston Rockets (18-1): They seem to have all the parts needed to contend, though I don't trust Dwight Howard in the clutch (and would be cheering for him to go to the bench late in games if I bet them in the playoffs). Their number looks short to me (and as I said, I would prefer the Mavs if they meet in the first round).
Phoenix Suns (50-1): They're right there with the Trail Blazers in the overachieving category. They're above average across the board, and while they've been the league's hottest team to bet on so far (33-17-1 ATS), they're not good enough to match up with the top teams in their conference in a long series.
There's also the aforementioned, under-priced Warriors and Trail Blazers if you're so inclined.
Enjoy the final third of the regular season.
LAS VEGAS -- It's the NBA All-Star break, but don't get fooled into calling it the halfway point of the season, as most teams have played nearly two-thirds of their regular-season games.
The playoffs are already coming into focus, as we have a relatively short stretch run to sort out the seeds in each conference. The chart below shows how the oddsmakers and bettors at the Las Vegas Hilton SuperBook see the teams shaping up in regard to their future-book odds.
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[h=4]Odds to win 2014 NBA championship[/h]
| Team | June 20 (open) | Aug. 6 | Oct. 25 | Feb. 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Note: Information courtesy Las Vegas Hilton SuperBook | ||||
| Indiana Pacers | 15-1 | 15-1 | 15-1 | 9-5 |
| Miami Heat | 7-4 | 2-1 | 2-1 | 2-1 |
| Oklahoma City Thunder | 9-2 | 9-2 | 9-2 | 7-2 |
| San Antonio Spurs | 7-1 | 8-1 | 8-1 | 12-1 |
| Los Angeles Clippers | 20-1 | 8-1 | 8-1 | 12-1 |
| Golden State Warriors | 25-1 | 30-1 | 25-1 | 15-1 |
| Houston Rockets | 25-1 | 12-1 | 10-1 | 18-1 |
| Portland Trail Blazers | 100-1 | 100-1 | 100-1 | 20-1 |
| Memphis Grizzlies | 20-1 | 25-1 | 25-1 | 50-1 |
| Phoenix Suns | 300-1 | 300-1 | 2000-1 | 50-1 |
| Brooklyn Nets | 40-1 | 15-1 | 12-1 | 60-1 |
| Dallas Mavericks | 40-1 | 40-1 | 40-1 | 60-1 |
| Toronto Raptors | 100-1 | 100-1 | 200-1 | 60-1 |
| Chicago Bulls | 7-1 | 6-1 | 6-1 | 100-1 |
| Minnesota Timberwolves | 100-1 | 100-1 | 100-1 | 100-1 |
| Washington Wizards | 100-1 | 100-1 | 100-1 | 100-1 |
| Detroit Pistons | 300-1 | 100-1 | 100-1 | 100-1 |
| Atlanta Hawks | 50-1 | 100-1 | 200-1 | 100-1 |
| Denver Nuggets | 25-1 | 30-1 | 40-1 | 500-1 |
| Boston Celtics | 40-1 | 100-1 | 300-1 | 500-1 |
| Cleveland Cavaliers | 100-1 | 100-1 | 100-1 | 1000-1 |
| Charlotte Bobcats | 500-1 | 500-1 | 1000-1 | 1000-1 |
| New Orleans Pelicans | 100-1 | 100-1 | 100-1 | 2000-1 |
| New York Knicks | 20-1 | 25-1 | 25-1 | 9999-1 |
| Los Angeles Lakers | 25-1 | 100-1 | 100-1 | 9999-1 |
| Utah Jazz | 100-1 | 100-1 | 200-1 | 9999-1 |
| Sacramento Kings | 100-1 | 100-1 | 200-1 | 9999-1 |
| Milwaukee Bucks | 100-1 | 500-1 | 1000-1 | 9999-1 |
| Orlando Magic | 500-1 | 500-1 | 1000-1 | 9999-1 |
| Philadelphia 76ers | 100-1 | 500-1 | 5000-1 | 9999-1 |
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The next tier of teams (Oklahoma City Thunder at 7-2, San Antonio Spurs and Los Angeles Clippers at 12-1, Golden State Warriors at 15-1 and Houston Rockets at 18-1) have mostly stayed about the same since the preseason, though the Chicago Bulls, New York Knicks and Denver Nuggets have seen their stock drop.
The Portland Trail Blazers continue to be the association's biggest overachiever, as they were 100-1 at the start of the season and now are the No. 8 betting choice at 20-1, and are battling for the No. 3 through 5 seed in the Western Conference.
I've been asked to determine if there are any value bets left in the NBA title futures as we head down the stretch. First, let's look at my "NBA best bets" column from Oct. 25, which was written right before the season started.
My two top recommended plays at the time were on the Indiana Pacers at 15-1 and the Golden State Warriors at 25-1. I stand by those picks at that time, but I wouldn't bet those teams at their current prices (9-5 and 15-1, respectively). Obviously, the preseason was the time to bet the Pacers, with them now having lived up to my expectations and being the overall favorite. The Warriors' current odds might still look appealing to some, but I'd call it an underlay because they're still just the No. 8 seed in the West and are no guarantee to make the playoffs if they falter or the Memphis Grizzlies or Minnesota Timberwolves make a late run.
The Blazers are another underlay in my opinion. If you jumped on their bandwagon early and got a much better price, that's great, but 20-1 or 25-1 doesn't seem like much value now as they still look a notch below the top teams.
So, who do I think is worth a play at this point?
[h=3]Tuley's Takes[/h]
Los Angeles Clippers (12-1): Chris Paul returned after missing a month with his shoulder injury, and I expected the Clippers' odds to drop, but it hasn't happened yet. This is true even with the 45-point rout of the Philadelphia 76ers in Paul's first game back on Feb. 9, and then a win (albeit non-cover) against the Blazers. But at 12-1 (and I've seen the number as high as 15-1 offshore), the time to bet is ASAP if you like them.
Dallas Mavericks (60-1): Looking for a long shot? The Mavs look like the best of those teams outside the top two tiers. They had a five-game win streak snapped by Charlotte, but then showed that they were looking ahead to their game at Indiana the next night and beat the Pacers 81-73 in a statement game. The Mavs seem to be jelling at the right time, and could be a tough out no matter who they face (I would certainly take them in the first round against Houston if those two clubs pair off as No. 3 vs. 6). Again, if you're on board, the time to bet them is now.
That's it. The NBA is usually pretty true to form, so you don't want to go nuts looking for big prices out there. Furthermore, the odds on the other contenders are either too low in relation to their true odds or you can pretty much count on getting those same odds in another two months when the playoffs start (and that also bypasses the injury factor between now and then). The longer shots on the board are unlikely to have what it takes to win a seven-game series, and that's even if they get in the playoffs. You'll also note I didn't even consider any other Eastern Conference teams, as it looks like a waste of money at this point to pick any team but the Pacers or Heat.
However, there are a few other teams in the West you might consider. I just don't think they're offering good value at current prices:
Houston Rockets (18-1): They seem to have all the parts needed to contend, though I don't trust Dwight Howard in the clutch (and would be cheering for him to go to the bench late in games if I bet them in the playoffs). Their number looks short to me (and as I said, I would prefer the Mavs if they meet in the first round).
Phoenix Suns (50-1): They're right there with the Trail Blazers in the overachieving category. They're above average across the board, and while they've been the league's hottest team to bet on so far (33-17-1 ATS), they're not good enough to match up with the top teams in their conference in a long series.
There's also the aforementioned, under-priced Warriors and Trail Blazers if you're so inclined.
Enjoy the final third of the regular season.
