[h=1]Plugging the holes: NFC South[/h][h=3]Most pressing offseason needs for the Falcons, Panthers, Saints and Bucs[/h]By Vince Verhei | Football Outsiders
ESPN INSIDER
Welcome to the 2014 version of Plugging the Holes, an eight-part examination from Football Outsiders of the biggest needs for every NFL team, division by division, going into the offseason.
In this edition, we look at the four NFC South teams.
[h=3]Atlanta Falcons: Defensive line[/h]
As you might expect from a team that won only four games last season, Atlanta has holes all over its roster. Question marks abound along the offensive line, at running back and in the secondary. The defensive line, however, may have been the NFL's worst in 2013, and things look to be getting worse before they get better.
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The Falcons were among the league's bottom three defenses in rushing yards allowed per game, yards per carry and sacks. The advanced numbers at Football Outsiders aren't any prettier on the whole. While their rushing yardage totals were somewhat skewed by a number of long runs, they ranked 27th in adjusted line yards (which measures a team's ability to prevent consistent gains). They also ranked dead last in adjusted sack rate, which accounts for pass attempts, down and distance, and quality of opposition.
It's the lack of pass rush that really killed Atlanta in 2013. Since its defensive linemen couldn't win one-on-one battles at the line of scrimmage, the Falcons were one of the five most blitz-happy teams in football, sending five or more pass-rushers on 38 percent of all pass plays. When they blitzed, though, they gave up 7.4 yards per play, worse than any team except the Dallas Cowboys.
At least there is youth and optimism in the secondary. First-round rookie Desmond Trufant started 16 games at one corner spot, and second-rounder Robert Alford started the last four games on the other side of the field. Both players took their lumps last year, but cornerback has usually been a difficult position for rookies to play, and it's reasonable to expect improvement from both in 2014.
The defensive line, however, is old and unstable. Only one of last year's starters (defensive tackle Corey Peters) was younger than 29. Three of them (Peters, Jonathan Babineaux, and Peria Jerry) are entering unrestricted free agency, and the fourth, Osi Umenyiora, is a potential salary-cap casualty.
The good news for Atlanta is that it has bountiful means to acquire talent, in terms of both cap space (at least $21 million, according to the Atlanta Journal-Constitution) and the draft, where the Falcons hold the sixth overall selection. In the slim chance that the Carolina Panthers are foolish enough to let Greg Hardy hit the open market, the Falcons should do whatever it takes to sign him, which would fix their biggest weakness and also strike a blow at the reigning division champions. That's not realistic, though; more likely, they'll be high in the running for Cincinnati's Michael Johnson, Oakland's Lamarr Houston or Seattle's Michael Bennett. At defensive tackle, the top targets appear to be Henry Melton of the Bears, Linval Joseph of the Giants or B.J. Raji of the Packers.
It's hard to see South Carolina's Jadeveon Clowney falling all the way to Atlanta with the No. 6 pick. The Falcons could trade up in the draft (they've done it before), but it's a safer bet that they'll stay put and take the next-best edge rusher, possibly Khalil Mack out of Buffalo or Anthony Barr from UCLA.
[h=3]Carolina Panthers: Wide receiver[/h]
The Panthers can use the franchise tag to keep Greg Hardy in town, and Cam Newton has made it clear that he will not be a training-camp holdout. That should make things easier for Panthers GM Dave Gettleman, though he still faces some tough decisions. Two starters on the offensive line (Jordan Gross and Travelle Wharton) and three more in the secondary (Captain Munnerlyn, Quintin Mikell and Mike Mitchell) will be unrestricted free agents, and Gettleman must determine how to re-sign or replace them. After all that is done, however, the Panthers will still have to fix their biggest weakness: a receiving corps that ranks among the worst in football.
According to Football Outsiders' wide receiver rankings, no Carolina wideout ranked among the top 50 WRs, despite having Newton at quarterback and playing in a run-heavy scheme that should have opened up opportunities downfield. Newton has one of the strongest arms in the league, but without any receivers able to get open downfield, the Carolina deep passing game collapsed. The Panthers threw 40 bombs of 25 yards or more beyond the line of scrimmage, close to the league average of 43.5. However, they completed only seven of those deep passes (worst in the league) for a completion rate of 17.5 percent (also worst).
Likely the best player in franchise history, Steve Smith looks as though he might finally need to be replaced, as he turns 35 in May and is coming off one of the least productive seasons of his career. He averaged fewer than 50 yards per game in 2013, only the second time that has happened since he became a starter in 2002. The other year was 2010, when he was catching passes from Jimmy Clausen.
Brandon LaFell is the co-starter alongside Smith, but he's a restricted free agent and a better blocker than receiver. Only two other wideouts on the roster (Ted Ginn Jr. and Domenik Hixon) caught a single pass all season, and both of those players are unrestricted free agents and likely to be gone.
The Panthers sit about $16 million below the salary cap, which sounds good, but a lot of that money will likely be spent on Hardy. They could clear up some space by cutting defensive tackle Dwan Edwards and sticking 2013 second-rounder Kawann Short into the starting lineup, and maybe that would be enough to get a deep threat like Hakeem Nicks of the Giants. Still, they're not likely to make a big splash in the free-agent pool.
That leaves draft day, and picking at 28th, the Panthers would do well to land a wideout like Davante Adams of Fresno State or Brandin Cooks of Oregon State. Or, they could roll the dice, like the Atlanta Falcons did in 2011, and package some picks to move up and take a top receiver in the Julio Jones mold. Clemson's Sammy Watkins is currently the top receiver prospect, according to ESPN experts Mel Kiper and Todd McShay. That would be a bold move, to be sure, but one that could significantly upgrade the team's group of pass-catchers.
[h=3]New Orleans Saints: Secondary[/h]
Usually writing these "biggest needs" pieces is a simple manner of finding what a team did poorly in 2013, and determining who was most at fault and how they can be best replaced. It's a different situation in New Orleans. The Saints' pass defense was quite good last season, finishing in the top 10 in yards per attempt and in Football Outsiders' advanced numbers. There were big changes, though, following a playoff defeat in Seattle. The Saints need all the cash they can find to re-sign Jimmy Graham (who really deserves wide receiver money, but that's another article), so they've cut ties with cornerback Jabari Greer and safety Roman Harper, who started a combined total of 164 games in black and gold. Safety Malcolm Jenkins (63 career starts in New Orleans) is also an unrestricted free agent, and likely to get a better offer on the open market than the Saints will be able to afford. (Linebacker Jonathan Vilma and defensive end Will Smith were also let go, but they were essentially both out for all of 2013 anyway.)
So what's left? Strong safety Kenny Vaccaro lived up to his first-round status as a rookie. Rafael Bush, a journeyman who has bounced around rosters in Atlanta, Denver and New Orleans, started six games in the regular season and one more in the playoffs, and he would be the top free safety on the roster. He's an unrestricted free agent, but expected to return. At cornerback, Keenan Lewis struggled in his first season after coming over from Pittsburgh in free agency, in part because he was often asked to cover the opposition's top receiver for the first time in his career. On the other side, the top corner right now is Corey White, a 2012 fifth-round draft pick. White was outstanding as a nickelback last year, but the league is full of corners who looked good as nickelbacks and then struggled in full-time roles. Patrick Robinson, a first-round pick in 2010, finally earned a starting role in 2012, but missed most of the 2013 season with a knee injury. He's also due $1.36 million in salary this year, and could be a casualty of the Graham sweepstakes. These roster worries are exacerbated by Rob Ryan's scheme, a blitz-heavy attack that often leaves corners in man-to-man coverage, and also routinely puts three safeties on the field at the same time.
For obvious reasons, the Saints won't be big spenders in free agency, which means they'll have to look to the draft for an influx of cheap, young talent. Armed with the 27th pick, they are strong candidates to take a cornerback like Jason Verrett from TCU, Bradley Roby from Ohio State or Marcus Roberson from Florida. They might also jump on Louisville safety Calvin Pryor.
[h=3]Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Offensive line[/h]
You could make a strong case for several units as Tampa Bay's biggest need. New coach Lovie Smith's defenses have traditionally relied on zone coverages and four-man pass rushes, and there's not a lineman on the roster who can be relied upon to pressure opposing quarterbacks. The wide receiver depth behind Vincent Jackson is pretty sorry, and Jackson himself turned 31 in January. But since we've already talked about the options at those positions, let's talk about the Buccaneers' offensive line, a unit that has gotten a little long in the tooth and could use an infusion of new talent. Tampa Bay has not drafted an offensive lineman in the first three rounds since 2008.
Four spots on the line last year were sure things; left tackle Donald Penn, center Jeremy Zuttah, right guard Davin Joseph and right tackle Demar Dotson each started every game. The left guard spot, though, was a big problem. Carl Nicks played only two games, bringing his two-season total with the Buccaneers to nine games. His career is in jeopardy after multiple toe surgeries to deal with a staph infection and nerve damage. Smith sounds optimistic about Nicks making a return, but Tampa Bay could save $7 million by letting the lineman go. Joseph and Penn may also be released unless they are willing to take pay cuts. Regardless, there's plenty of room for improvement here. The Bucs' O-line ranked 28th in Football Outsiders' run-blocking metric, and 21st in pass protection.
The Bucs will have about $19 or million or more to spend in free agency, though, as noted, they have a lot of holes to fill. Top offensive-line free agents include Baltimore tackles Eugene Monroe and Michael Oher; Chiefs guards Jon Asamoah and Geoff Schwartz; and Browns center Alex Mack. Or, they could raid the rosters of their division rivals, signing Jordan Gross and Travelle Wharton away from Carolina and/or Brian de la Puente from New Orleans.
In the draft, two tackles seem head-and-shoulders above their peers: Auburn's Greg Robinson and Texas A&M's Jake Matthews. If one of those players should fall to the Bucs at No. 7, it'd be a great fit. Otherwise, look for Tampa Bay to either grab a pass-rusher or perhaps a top receiver like Watkins, then come back and address the line in the second round.
ESPN INSIDER
Welcome to the 2014 version of Plugging the Holes, an eight-part examination from Football Outsiders of the biggest needs for every NFL team, division by division, going into the offseason.
In this edition, we look at the four NFC South teams.
[h=3]Atlanta Falcons: Defensive line[/h]
As you might expect from a team that won only four games last season, Atlanta has holes all over its roster. Question marks abound along the offensive line, at running back and in the secondary. The defensive line, however, may have been the NFL's worst in 2013, and things look to be getting worse before they get better.
<OFFER></OFFER>
The Falcons were among the league's bottom three defenses in rushing yards allowed per game, yards per carry and sacks. The advanced numbers at Football Outsiders aren't any prettier on the whole. While their rushing yardage totals were somewhat skewed by a number of long runs, they ranked 27th in adjusted line yards (which measures a team's ability to prevent consistent gains). They also ranked dead last in adjusted sack rate, which accounts for pass attempts, down and distance, and quality of opposition.
It's the lack of pass rush that really killed Atlanta in 2013. Since its defensive linemen couldn't win one-on-one battles at the line of scrimmage, the Falcons were one of the five most blitz-happy teams in football, sending five or more pass-rushers on 38 percent of all pass plays. When they blitzed, though, they gave up 7.4 yards per play, worse than any team except the Dallas Cowboys.
At least there is youth and optimism in the secondary. First-round rookie Desmond Trufant started 16 games at one corner spot, and second-rounder Robert Alford started the last four games on the other side of the field. Both players took their lumps last year, but cornerback has usually been a difficult position for rookies to play, and it's reasonable to expect improvement from both in 2014.
The defensive line, however, is old and unstable. Only one of last year's starters (defensive tackle Corey Peters) was younger than 29. Three of them (Peters, Jonathan Babineaux, and Peria Jerry) are entering unrestricted free agency, and the fourth, Osi Umenyiora, is a potential salary-cap casualty.
The good news for Atlanta is that it has bountiful means to acquire talent, in terms of both cap space (at least $21 million, according to the Atlanta Journal-Constitution) and the draft, where the Falcons hold the sixth overall selection. In the slim chance that the Carolina Panthers are foolish enough to let Greg Hardy hit the open market, the Falcons should do whatever it takes to sign him, which would fix their biggest weakness and also strike a blow at the reigning division champions. That's not realistic, though; more likely, they'll be high in the running for Cincinnati's Michael Johnson, Oakland's Lamarr Houston or Seattle's Michael Bennett. At defensive tackle, the top targets appear to be Henry Melton of the Bears, Linval Joseph of the Giants or B.J. Raji of the Packers.
It's hard to see South Carolina's Jadeveon Clowney falling all the way to Atlanta with the No. 6 pick. The Falcons could trade up in the draft (they've done it before), but it's a safer bet that they'll stay put and take the next-best edge rusher, possibly Khalil Mack out of Buffalo or Anthony Barr from UCLA.
[h=3]Carolina Panthers: Wide receiver[/h]
The Panthers can use the franchise tag to keep Greg Hardy in town, and Cam Newton has made it clear that he will not be a training-camp holdout. That should make things easier for Panthers GM Dave Gettleman, though he still faces some tough decisions. Two starters on the offensive line (Jordan Gross and Travelle Wharton) and three more in the secondary (Captain Munnerlyn, Quintin Mikell and Mike Mitchell) will be unrestricted free agents, and Gettleman must determine how to re-sign or replace them. After all that is done, however, the Panthers will still have to fix their biggest weakness: a receiving corps that ranks among the worst in football.
According to Football Outsiders' wide receiver rankings, no Carolina wideout ranked among the top 50 WRs, despite having Newton at quarterback and playing in a run-heavy scheme that should have opened up opportunities downfield. Newton has one of the strongest arms in the league, but without any receivers able to get open downfield, the Carolina deep passing game collapsed. The Panthers threw 40 bombs of 25 yards or more beyond the line of scrimmage, close to the league average of 43.5. However, they completed only seven of those deep passes (worst in the league) for a completion rate of 17.5 percent (also worst).
Likely the best player in franchise history, Steve Smith looks as though he might finally need to be replaced, as he turns 35 in May and is coming off one of the least productive seasons of his career. He averaged fewer than 50 yards per game in 2013, only the second time that has happened since he became a starter in 2002. The other year was 2010, when he was catching passes from Jimmy Clausen.
Brandon LaFell is the co-starter alongside Smith, but he's a restricted free agent and a better blocker than receiver. Only two other wideouts on the roster (Ted Ginn Jr. and Domenik Hixon) caught a single pass all season, and both of those players are unrestricted free agents and likely to be gone.
The Panthers sit about $16 million below the salary cap, which sounds good, but a lot of that money will likely be spent on Hardy. They could clear up some space by cutting defensive tackle Dwan Edwards and sticking 2013 second-rounder Kawann Short into the starting lineup, and maybe that would be enough to get a deep threat like Hakeem Nicks of the Giants. Still, they're not likely to make a big splash in the free-agent pool.
That leaves draft day, and picking at 28th, the Panthers would do well to land a wideout like Davante Adams of Fresno State or Brandin Cooks of Oregon State. Or, they could roll the dice, like the Atlanta Falcons did in 2011, and package some picks to move up and take a top receiver in the Julio Jones mold. Clemson's Sammy Watkins is currently the top receiver prospect, according to ESPN experts Mel Kiper and Todd McShay. That would be a bold move, to be sure, but one that could significantly upgrade the team's group of pass-catchers.
[h=3]New Orleans Saints: Secondary[/h]
Usually writing these "biggest needs" pieces is a simple manner of finding what a team did poorly in 2013, and determining who was most at fault and how they can be best replaced. It's a different situation in New Orleans. The Saints' pass defense was quite good last season, finishing in the top 10 in yards per attempt and in Football Outsiders' advanced numbers. There were big changes, though, following a playoff defeat in Seattle. The Saints need all the cash they can find to re-sign Jimmy Graham (who really deserves wide receiver money, but that's another article), so they've cut ties with cornerback Jabari Greer and safety Roman Harper, who started a combined total of 164 games in black and gold. Safety Malcolm Jenkins (63 career starts in New Orleans) is also an unrestricted free agent, and likely to get a better offer on the open market than the Saints will be able to afford. (Linebacker Jonathan Vilma and defensive end Will Smith were also let go, but they were essentially both out for all of 2013 anyway.)
So what's left? Strong safety Kenny Vaccaro lived up to his first-round status as a rookie. Rafael Bush, a journeyman who has bounced around rosters in Atlanta, Denver and New Orleans, started six games in the regular season and one more in the playoffs, and he would be the top free safety on the roster. He's an unrestricted free agent, but expected to return. At cornerback, Keenan Lewis struggled in his first season after coming over from Pittsburgh in free agency, in part because he was often asked to cover the opposition's top receiver for the first time in his career. On the other side, the top corner right now is Corey White, a 2012 fifth-round draft pick. White was outstanding as a nickelback last year, but the league is full of corners who looked good as nickelbacks and then struggled in full-time roles. Patrick Robinson, a first-round pick in 2010, finally earned a starting role in 2012, but missed most of the 2013 season with a knee injury. He's also due $1.36 million in salary this year, and could be a casualty of the Graham sweepstakes. These roster worries are exacerbated by Rob Ryan's scheme, a blitz-heavy attack that often leaves corners in man-to-man coverage, and also routinely puts three safeties on the field at the same time.
For obvious reasons, the Saints won't be big spenders in free agency, which means they'll have to look to the draft for an influx of cheap, young talent. Armed with the 27th pick, they are strong candidates to take a cornerback like Jason Verrett from TCU, Bradley Roby from Ohio State or Marcus Roberson from Florida. They might also jump on Louisville safety Calvin Pryor.
[h=3]Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Offensive line[/h]
You could make a strong case for several units as Tampa Bay's biggest need. New coach Lovie Smith's defenses have traditionally relied on zone coverages and four-man pass rushes, and there's not a lineman on the roster who can be relied upon to pressure opposing quarterbacks. The wide receiver depth behind Vincent Jackson is pretty sorry, and Jackson himself turned 31 in January. But since we've already talked about the options at those positions, let's talk about the Buccaneers' offensive line, a unit that has gotten a little long in the tooth and could use an infusion of new talent. Tampa Bay has not drafted an offensive lineman in the first three rounds since 2008.
Four spots on the line last year were sure things; left tackle Donald Penn, center Jeremy Zuttah, right guard Davin Joseph and right tackle Demar Dotson each started every game. The left guard spot, though, was a big problem. Carl Nicks played only two games, bringing his two-season total with the Buccaneers to nine games. His career is in jeopardy after multiple toe surgeries to deal with a staph infection and nerve damage. Smith sounds optimistic about Nicks making a return, but Tampa Bay could save $7 million by letting the lineman go. Joseph and Penn may also be released unless they are willing to take pay cuts. Regardless, there's plenty of room for improvement here. The Bucs' O-line ranked 28th in Football Outsiders' run-blocking metric, and 21st in pass protection.
The Bucs will have about $19 or million or more to spend in free agency, though, as noted, they have a lot of holes to fill. Top offensive-line free agents include Baltimore tackles Eugene Monroe and Michael Oher; Chiefs guards Jon Asamoah and Geoff Schwartz; and Browns center Alex Mack. Or, they could raid the rosters of their division rivals, signing Jordan Gross and Travelle Wharton away from Carolina and/or Brian de la Puente from New Orleans.
In the draft, two tackles seem head-and-shoulders above their peers: Auburn's Greg Robinson and Texas A&M's Jake Matthews. If one of those players should fall to the Bucs at No. 7, it'd be a great fit. Otherwise, look for Tampa Bay to either grab a pass-rusher or perhaps a top receiver like Watkins, then come back and address the line in the second round.
