Service Plays Thursday 2/20/14

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GL!

Steve's picks round 2

Two Unit - Jason Dufner (-135) over Matteo Manassero

One Unit - Webb Simpson (-150) over Brandt Snedeker

Budweiser Duels: NASCAR betting for people who hate NASCAR betting
By JASON LOGAN

For a sport that promotes itself on speed, NASCAR betting can seem like one of the slowest options to sports bettors.

There are a handful of betting selections for each week’s NASCAR Sprint Cup event – outright odds, matchups, speed rows - but sitting around watching cars turn left for three or four hours is a grueling practice, especially if your bets don’t pan out.

Enter the Budweiser Duels. The pair of preliminary races at Daytona unofficially opens the Sprint Cup betting schedule, with the top drivers in NASCAR revving their engines Thursday night with Duel No. 1 at 7 pm ET and Duel No. 2 at 9 p.m. ET (Sprint Cup moved the Duels to a night race this season).

For those not familiar with the duels, they’re basically a condensed version of a regular race. The field is cut in half and split in two 150-mile mad dashes to determine the starting order for this Sunday's Daytona 500.

Drivers and teams don’t have time for methodical fuel-management strategies to play out nor can they afford to sit back in the pack and make adjustments, hoping to find the right groove late in the race. If they want a shot to run up front at Daytona, they have to leave it all on the track Thursday night. There's betting value to be had all over the board.

The top guns carry a heftier price tag, with some elite drivers looking to kick start the season with a win and others just trying to protect their cars in qualifying. Figuring out which guys are going all out or not can stretch your money pretty far. And then you have the live long shots, looking to make a name for themselves and punch a ticket to the "Great American Race". As well, you have your super speedway specialists who consistently dominate the restrictor-plate events on the big tracks.

The Budweiser Duels are racing at its most primal. And that’s why they’re the most exciting wagering options for those who aren’t quite sold on betting NASCAR. It’s basically the closest thing you’ll find to horse racing, but with 800 horsepower instead of one.

But while the Budweiser Duels are some of the most exciting ways to wager on auto racing, they might also be some of the most ignored. According to Ed Salmons, manager at the LVH Superbook in Las Vegas, the Duels draw about 10 percent of the total action that the Daytona 500 does.

“The Duels have historically been a non-event,” Salmons tells Covers. “Betting on these races has been much smaller than normal races. Maybe that changes with the night running this year, but I doubt it.”

Salmons says NASCAR betting overall is growing in popularity every year, and some of the options – like head-to-head driver matchup betting – is outdrawing popular props like PGA golf matchups each week.

Not having the appeal and audience of the Daytona 500 is a blessing in disguise. NASCAR bettors can find Budweiser Duels odds closer to their opening price without the public having their say and sucking all the value out of potential contenders and popular favorites.

So, if you’re on the fence about NASCAR betting or just looking for something different Thursday night, take a gamble: Try gambling on the Budweiser Duels. You’ll quickly see that turning left never felt so right.

Here’s a look at the starting positions and odds for both Budweiser Duels:

BUDWEISER DUEL 1

1. (3) Austin Dillon, Chevrolet, 196.019 mph. (+1,500)
2. (16) Greg Biffle, Ford, 195.818. (+1,500)
3. (31) Ryan Newman, Chevrolet, 195.707. (+1,500)
4. (88) Dale Earnhardt Jr., Chevrolet, 195.211. (+500)
5. (17) Ricky Stenhouse Jr., Ford, 195.004. (+2,500)
6. (9) Marcos Ambrose, Ford, 194.894. (+3,000)
7. (43) Aric Almirola, Ford, 194.658. (+3,000)
8. (22) Joey Logano, Ford, 194.582. (+800)
9. (20) Matt Kenseth, Toyota, 194.574. (+500)
10. (5) Kasey Kahne, Chevrolet, 194.544. (+1,200)
11. (18) Kyle Busch, Toyota, 194.502. (+500)
12. (4) Kevin Harvick, Chevrolet, 194.422. (+500)
13. (10) Danica Patrick, Chevrolet, 194.38. (+4,000)
14. (47) AJ Allmendinger, Chevrolet, 194.108. (+5,000)
15. (36) Reed Sorenson, Chevrolet, 194.066. (+3,000)
16. (38) David Gilliland, Ford, 193.736. (+5,000)
17. (30) Parker Kligerman, Toyota, 193.594. (+3,000)
18. (14) Tony Stewart, Chevrolet, 193.365. (+800)
19. (55) Brian Vickers, Toyota, 192.798. (+2,000)
20. (26) Cole Whitt, Toyota, 192.538. (+3,000)
21. (95) Michael McDowell, Ford, 192.291. (+3,000)
22. (98) Josh Wise, Ford, 192.061. (+3,000)
23. (87) Joe Nemechek, Toyota, 190.48. (+3,000)
24. (23) Alex Bowman, Toyota, 189.685. (+3,000)
25. (77) Dave Blaney, Ford. (+3,000)

BUDWEISER DUEL 2

1. (78) Martin Truex Jr., Chevrolet, 195.852 mph. (+1,500)
2. (99) Carl Edwards, Ford, 195.712. (+1,200)
3. (2) Brad Keselowski, Ford, 195.296. (+500)
4. (24) Jeff Gordon, Chevrolet, 195.042. (+800)
5. (27) Paul Menard, Chevrolet, 194.919. (+1,500)
6. (33) Brian Scott, Chevrolet, 194.776. (+3,000)
7. (48) Jimmie Johnson, Chevrolet, 194.637. (+500)
8. (13) Casey Mears, Chevrolet, 194.582. (+6,000)
9. (7) Michael Annett, Chevrolet, 194.574. (+3,000)
10. (15) Clint Bowyer, Toyota, 194.523. (+800)
11. (11) Denny Hamlin, Toyota, 194.477. (+500)
12. (42) Kyle Larson, Chevrolet, 194.41. (+2,000)
13. (21) Trevor Bayne, Ford, 194.334. (+3,000)
14. (41) Kurt Busch, Chevrolet, 194.078. (+800)
15. (51) Justin Allgaier, Chevrolet, 193.616. (+7,500)
16. (40) Landon Cassill, Chevrolet, 193.732. (+3,000)
17. (66) Michael Waltrip, Toyota, 193.428. (+2,000)
18. (35) Eric McClure, Ford, 192.905. (+3,000)
19. (1) Jamie McMurray, Chevrolet, 192.695. (+800)
20. (34) David Ragan, Ford, 192.328. (+3,000)
21. (32) Terry Labonte, Ford, 192.135. (+3,000)
22. (52) Bobby Labonte, Chevrolet, 192.493. (+3,000)
23. (83) Ryan Truex, Toyota, 190.347. (+3,000)
24. (93) Morgan Shepherd, Toyota, 189.542. (+3,000)

Game of the Day: Heat at Thunder

Miami Heat at Oklahoma City Thunder (-3.5, 205.5)

The Miami Heat attempt to avenge a 17-point loss to Oklahoma City when they visit the Thunder in Thursday’s nationally televised showdown. Kevin Durant scored 33 points when Oklahoma City posted a 112-95 victory in Miami on Jan. 29 while LeBron James scored 34 for the Heat. The two leading MVP candidates figure to be primed for the rematch, while Thunder guard Russell Westbrook is a game-time decision to return from his latest knee surgery.

The Heat are wrapping up a six-game road trip and have won six of their last seven games after recording a 117-106 road victory over Dallas on Tuesday. James scored a season-best 42 points on 16-of-23 shooting for his 50th career 40-point outing and he is averaging 38.3 points over the last three contests. Oklahoma City is playing for the first time since the All-Star break concluded and possesses the top record in the NBA. Durant is also on a roll and is averaging 40 points over the last three games and his 43-point outing against the Los Angeles Lakers on Feb. 13 was his eighth such outing of the season.

TV: 8 p.m. ET, TNT

LINE HISTORY: The Thunder opened as 3.5-point home faves and the total opened 205.5.

COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Miami (-14.3) - Thunder (-14.5) + Home Court (-3.0) = Thunder -4.2

INJURY WATCH: Russell Westbrook, Thunder (Knee - Probable)

WHAT SHARPS SAY: "Russell Westbrook is set to return Thursday versus the Heat, making the league's top team even better. The focus will be on how Westbrook affects Durant's production." Covers Experts' Bryan Power.

WHAT BOOKS SAY: "I think we could be in store for a real treat with this game. It could be one of those games where you see two superstars trying to one up each other. Also look for the Heat to try and exact some revenge for the loss they suffered earlier in the season to the Thunder at home." Michael Stewart, CarbonSports.ag.

CHEERLEADER WAR:



ABOUT THE HEAT (38-14 SU, 23-28-1 ATS, 31-21 O/U): James is third in the NBA in scoring (26.8) – Durant leads at 31.5 – and has played spectacularly since a dismal 13-point outing in a loss to lowly Utah on Feb. 8. A surprise scoring contributor in the victory over Dallas was journeyman forward Chris Andersen, who scored a season-best 18 points on 7-of-9 shooting as Miami pulled within 2 1/2 games of Eastern Conference-leading Indiana. “From here on out, we’ve got to take care of business and try and get that first spot back,” Andersen said afterward.

ABOUT THE THUNDER (43-12 SU, 32-23 ATS, 28-27 O/U): Westbrook has missed the last 27 games and Oklahoma City has thrived without him, going 20-7 during the stretch. The star point guard originally hurt his knee in last season’s playoffs against the Houston Rockets and he has experienced two setbacks – both requiring additional surgery – this season. Westbrook practiced with the squad on Wednesday and it will be interesting to see if coach Scott Brooks handles Westbrook cautiously to avoid another setback. Durant has stepped up with 20 30-point outings during Westbrook’s latest absence.

TWEET BEAT:



TRENDS:

* Over is 9-2-1 in the last 12 meetings in Oklahoma City.
* Heat are 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.
* Thunder are 1-5 ATS in their last six vs. NBA Southeast.
* Heat are 0-5 ATS in their last five Thursday games.

COVERS CONSENSUS: 52 percent of wagers are on the Heat +3.5.

Weather delay won't impact Duke-North Carolina odds
By CHASE RUTTIG

Last week's highly-anticipated game between North Carolina and Duke at Chapel Hill was postponed due to poor road conditions, with Duke unable to make the drive on its team bus.

The game was pushed back to February 20 and drastically changed Duke and UNC's schedule, as the Blue Devils now have to play against their rivals Thursday before a quick turnaround against Syracuse Saturday.

With both teams earning wins this week - North Carolina beating Florida State 81-75 and Duke throttling Georgia Tech 68-51 - Jeff Stoneback, sportsbook manager at the MGM Mirage in Las Vegas, doesn't expect the original line to changed much by the postponement. Books were dealing the Blue Devils as big as 2.5-point road favorites last Wednesday before the game was called off.

"We are looking at a very similar line with the Blue Devils being a small favorite," Stoneback told Covers. "It is important to note that both UNC and Duke covered their games in between the cancellation and that the Blue Devils were just favored by 2.5, so that wouldn't change due to the game being pushed back a week unless something drastic happened."

Stoneback also projects that books won't see a drop in action Thursday compared to what they were expecting last Wednesday.

"Thursday is still a midweek game and you won't see much of a change in betting amounts unless the game was rescheduled to Saturday or Sunday," he says.

The Tobacco Road Rivalry is one of the biggest draws of the college basketball season and according to books, brings in three times more action than a regular mid-week NCAAB major conference matchup.

"With college basketball you don't get as many rivalry games as you would see in college football and with Duke and North Carolina being the two schools with the biggest national brands, we generally see a spike in bets from the public whenever they play due to that big-game feel," Stoneback told Covers last week.

Duke won both meetings with North Carolina last year but the road team covered the spread in each game. In fact, the last five meetings between the two have seen the road team cover, and going back long term, the visitor is 22-8 ATS in the last 30 installments of the Tobacco Road Rivalry.

Thursday will mark the third straight time the two schools have met with North Carolina outside the Top 25 – a situation that hasn’t been kind to the Tar Heels. Duke has won 11 of those 12 matchups since 2000, going 7-5 ATS, with eight of those wins coming by double digits.

Both ACC programs are red hot heading into Thursday, with Duke covering in eight of its last 10 and the Tar Heels riding a seven-game SU and ATS winning streak.

Duke heating up at the right time

Duke seems to be prepping nicely both on the floor and at the betting window, with a big couple of games on the horizon. The Blue Devils rolled past Georgia Tech 68-51 Tuesday night to cash as an 11-point road chalk, moving to 8-1 ATS in their last nine games.

Duke (21-5 SU, 17-9 ATS) has also won nine of its last 10 SU. However, due to last week’s game at archrival North Carolina postponed by snow, the Blue Devils have to travel to face the Tar Heels on Thursday night, then turn around and host No. 1 Syracuse on Saturday.

All of your bullshit and speculation about Paul Leiner is unwarranted. He releases his plays in the AM and probably has them picked the night before. His line is correct for his picks if you don't buy them you don't have the facts. When the line moves hard against him you say nothing but when the lines move with him (as they often do) you bitch because you are too late. If he releases a play at -5 and it is -3.5 later the next day is he scamming you? No...........! Watch the line moves. The truth is he gives out plays early and doesn't know all of the injury scenarios as a result. Use your own wise judgment. He still has hit large on big plays over time.

Steve's Golf Picks

2 Unit.. Dufner
1 Unit.. Simpson

Confirmed

Denver Money

Here are my plays for the medal games in the Women's

2* USA/Canada over 4.5 -135 (very close to being a 3* play)

2* United States -120

1* Sweden -1.5 +180

Gamblers Data

Bonus Plays Thursday

Wofford -13.5

Sacramento State +1

Mighty Quinn

Mighty hit with St. Joseph’s (-2 1/2) on Wednesday and likes Canisius on Thursday.

The deficit is 210 sirignanos.

Free Selection from Arthur Ralph Sports

Bonus Play Thurs SAN FRAN + 1 1/2

tgunn11 said:

Basketball Crusher
San Diego -1 over Portland
(System Record: 46-7, won last game and a push)
Overall Record: 46-64-4

Click to expand...

Rest of the Plays
Marist +2 over St. Peters
Nebraska Omaha PK over South Dakota
Tennessee-Martin -1.5 over Tennessee Tech

Paul Leiner

100* Heat/Thunder Over 206

100* Alabama/Texas A&M Over 121

50* Tulsa -4.5

EZWINNERS

1* North Carolina +1 1st Half

NCAAB

Thursday, February 20

Memphis (-14) made 12-19 from arc, ran out to a 29-5 lead and crushed Rutgers 101-69 Feb 4 at home, but Tigers lost last two road games, at SMU/UConn. Memphis is 3-0 as a road favorite. Rutgers lost nine of its last 12 games- they got beat by 48 at Louisville in last game. Knights are 2-2 as home dogs, with home losses by 7-11-12 points. AAC home underdogs of 9+ points are 2-4 against spread.

Michigan State won last five games vs Purdue, winning last two visits to Mackey Arena by 14-13 points; Spartans are just 3-4 last seven games, but are 6-0 vs spread on road, 4-0 as road favorites, wiith four five road wins by 14+ points. Big Dozen home underdogs of 5 or less points are 7-8 vs spread. Purdue won four of last five home games, but is 0-2 as a home underdog- their home losses were by 9-14 points.

Green Bay's 7-1 C Brown sat out 75-60 (-2) home loss at Valparaiso on Jan 29; Valpo shot 64% inside arc with Brown on bench- he's played 27+ minutes in every game since, with Phoenix winning four of the five, but they've faild to cover last four home games. Horizon home favorites of 8+ points are 7-9 vs spread. Valpo won seven of its last nine games, is 3-2 as road underdog, with only road losses by 5-19 points.

UTEP won six of last seven games with Tulane, winning last three by 2-9-12 points, but they're 2-3 in last five visits here. Miners won nine of last 10 games games overall, are 2-0 as road favorites- they covered eight of last 10 games overall. C-USA home underdogs of 6 or less points are 8-5 vs spread. Tulane won three of last four games, covered six of last eight- they've won their last three home games.

Gonzaga (-8.5) beat BYU 84-69 Jan 25, making 10-22 from arc, 65.6% inside arc in Bulldogs' fifth straight series win- they split two visits to Provo, winning by 5 here LY. WCC home favorites of 3 or less points are 6-3 vs spread. Gonzaga won nine of last ten games, last four on road in WCC, but they lost last road game at Memphis. BYU won five of its last six games; they''re 7-0 SU at home in conference this season.

Georgetown/Seton Hall split last six meetings; Pirates (+6.5) won 67-57 at Georgetown Jan 18, making 11-20 from arc in game they trailed by 9 at half. Seton Hall lost last three games overall and five of last six home games. Georgetowen had 3-game win streak snapped last games- they're 2-4 on Big East road, winning at Butler/DePaul. Big East home teams are 8-6 vs spread if spread was 3 or less points.

Oregon State (-2.5) outscored Wazzu 19-1 on foul line in 66-55 win at Pullman Jan 22, Beavers' second straight series win after losing five of six to Coogs before that. Wazzu won two of last three visits here; they lost last four games overall, are 1-5 as road dogs, with five of six losses on road by 18+ points. Pac-12 home favorites of 9+ points are 15-10 vs spread. Underdogs covered four of Beavers' five home games.

St Mary's won its last 17 games vs San Francisco, winning last seven in this gym; Gaels split their last six games, are 4-3 on WCC on road, not as strong as usual- they beat Dons 88-73 (-9) at home jan 11, making 11 of 21 from arc in game where both sides shot 59% inside arc. WCC home teams are 14-15 vs spread in games if spread was less than 5. Dons are 5-2 at home in WCC- they covered five of their last six games.

USC lost its last five games, but covered last two on road; Trojans lost 79-71 (+6) in OT to Stanford Jan 26, making just 19-30 on line. USC is 5-3 in last eight series games, winning two of last three visits to Farm. Stanford won three of last four games, covered eight of last ten- they're 3-1 as home favorites, but lost two home games to Cal/Arizona. Pac-12 double digit home favorites are 12-9 vs spread.

UConn (-12) made 12-23 from arc, beat Temple 90-66 at home Jan 21; Huskies won six of last seven games, are 2-1 as road favorites, winning road games by 10-11-20 points (3-3 SU). Owls upset SMU last game; they're 2-10 in AAC, 2-3 in last five games, 2-2 as home dogs, losing home games by 7-10-4-24 points. AAC home underdogs are 7-14 against spread. Six of last seven Temple losses are by 10+ points.

Canisius won six of last eight games but lost last two at home; they won 86-74 (+2.5) at Quinnipiac Jan 25, holding Bobcats to 6-27 from the arc. Road team covered last six Canisius games; Griffins are still 5-3 as home favorites, despite losing last two. Quinnipiac won last four games, three by 8 or less points- they won last three road games, two in overtime. MAAC home favorites of 6 or less points are 12-14 vs spread.

Duke won nine of last ten games, covered eight of last nine; Blue Devils are 9-2 in last 11 games vs North Carolina, winning three of last four in Dean Dome, with wins by 10-1-16 points. Tar Heels won/covered their last seven games, they won last five at home, are 0-2 as ACC underdogs. Duke is shooting 42% from arc in ACC; UNC holds teams to 31% on arc. ACC home teams are 10-19 vs spread if spread was 4 or less points.

Hawai'i (+6) tied game with late trey, won 90-86 in OT at Irvine, Jan 25, in game where Anteaters' 7-6 center Ndiaye fouled out in only 22:00 on court. Teams split last four meetings; Irvine lost by 4 here LY. Big West home favorites of 4 or less points are 4-3 vs spread. Hawai'i won three in row overall, are 3-2 as home favorites, winning at home by 31-14-9, losing to to Long Beach/UCSB. Irvine won last four, allowing 54.8 ppg.

NBA

Thursday, February 20

Hot teams
-- Oklahoma City won 15 of its last 17 games. Heat won 11 of its last 14 game (3-1-1 vs spread in last five).
-- Rockets won their last eight games (6-2 vs spread).

Cold Teams
-- Milwaukee lost 19 of its last 22 games. Nuggets lost last five games, are 0-6 vs spread in last six.
-- Golden State split its last six home games.

Series records
-- Nuggets won their last seven games with Milwaukee.
-- Thunder lost six of last seven games with Miami.
-- Rockets won 17 of last 20 games with Golden State.

Totals
-- Six of last nine Milwaukee games went over total.
-- Four of last five Heat-Thunder games went over.
-- Seven of last ten Golden State games stayed under.

Jordan Sharp

NBA Parlay: OKC -3.5 + Warriors Over 212.5

2-2 for the week in NBA