Anthony Davis On His Way To Greatness (For Choptalk & Other New Orleans Fans)

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[h=1]Tracking Anthony Davis' greatness[/h][h=3]All numbers show Pelicans' big man will be NBA's best player in time[/h]By Kevin Pelton | ESPN Insider
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Since before Andrew Wiggins & Co. even played a college game, the hype around this year's crop of NCAA freshmen has been unprecedented because of what they might someday become in the NBA. But what if the next great player is already in the league? The numbers say he is.

Anthony Davis' NBA career hasn't exactly taken place in obscurity. He was the consensus No. 1 pick in the draft and was one of two second-year players chosen for the All-Star Game earlier this month. Although the New Orleans Pelicans' national TV appearances tonight and Friday are just their second and third of the season, Davis has made the Pelicans favorites on NBA League Pass.

Still, the enormity of Davis' ability hasn't necessarily sunk in. He has demonstrated the potential to be not just one of the best players in the league but the very best -- and one of the best players ever.
<OFFER>[h=3]Precocious success[/h]
Davis won't be able to celebrate Mardi Gras in a bar because he doesn't turn 21 until March 11. He's still more than two years younger than Damian Lillard of the Portland Trail Blazers, the other sophomore All-Star, and more than a year younger than Creighton forward Doug McDermott, this season's likely NCAA Player of the Year.
At every point since he enrolled at Kentucky, Davis has been ahead of his peers at the same age. Remember, Davis and Kevin Durant are the lone two freshmen to win the Naismith and Wooden awards, a feat that appears unlikely to be repeated this season. Davis capped his season by leading the Wildcats to the title and joining Carmelo Anthony and Pervis Ellison as the three freshmen to win Most Outstanding Player in the past 70 years.

Although Davis' rookie season was hampered by a series of injures, he still managed to post the best PER ever by a player in his age-19 season (as determined by age on Feb. 1), per Basketball-Reference.com. Davis is repeating the feat this year among 20-year-olds. Even more impressive is the list if we open it up to all players 21 and younger, allowing the inclusion of players who spent more than two seasons in college.
<!-- begin inline 2 -->[h=4]The young and successful[/h]Players with best PER age 21 or younger.
PlayerYearExpAgePER
Shaquille O'Neal1993121.128.5
LeBron James2006321.328.1
Anthony Davis2014221.126.4
Kevin Durant2010321.626.2
Michael Jordan1985122.225.8
LeBron James2005220.325.7
Magic Johnson1981221.725.7
John Drew1976221.625.3

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<!-- end inline 2 -->Davis already ranks third, trailing Shaquille O'Neal's second season and LeBron James' third, and is ahead of some of the NBA's brightest stars, including any of Durant's first three years, Magic Johnson's first two or Michael Jordan's rookie campaign. Of the seven previous players to surpass a 25 PER by their age-21 season, all of them won MVPs except Durant (who might this season) and John Drew (whose career was limited and eventually ended by cocaine addiction). That's the kind of elite company in which Davis should be considered.
[h=3]The one caveat[/h]
So far, Davis' team impact doesn't seem to be as large as his individual statistics would suggest. Different versions of regularized adjusted plus/minus (RAPM), which adjust New Orleans' performance with and without Davis for his teammates and opponents, shows him as an average contributor (via the Talking Practice blog) or worse (via from NBA consultant Jeremias Engelmann).

Both versions agree that, despite his blocks, Davis remains a below-average defender. That makes sense in the context of the Pelicans' leaky defense, which ranks just outside the league's bottom five in points allowed per possession. Davis has been unable to overcome the New Orleans defensive scheme.

Poor plus/minus is hardly surprising for a young player, let alone alarming. The most similar example is Durant, who rated 1.5 points worse than average per 100 possessions in his second season, per Engelmann. That famously prompted former NBA consultant Wayne Winston to say on TrueHoop that he wouldn't want Durant on his team. By his third season, Durant looked like a superstar in box score and plus/minus measures. If Davis continues to lag next season, there will be cause for concern. For now, it's part of the development process.
[h=3]Projecting forward[/h]
Davis is 4½ years younger than Durant, a slightly larger gap than the one between Durant and James. As Durant has played his way into the question of the league's best player this season, Davis could do the same sometime late this decade. Consider the graphic below on how his rapid development tracks with that of James and Durant early in their careers.

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PER576.jpg

<CITE>Kevin Pelton
</CITE>
<!-- end wide photo -->The most surprising aspect of the long-term outlook for Davis from my SCHOENE projection system is that he could eventually flirt with 30 points per game. That prospect makes a bit more sense in the context of how other big men have developed late as scorers.

Davis is most frequently compared to Kevin Garnett, another lanky, athletic post player. At the same age, however, Davis is far ahead of Garnett (who topped out at 24.2 points per game) as a scorer. He's averaging 20.6 points per 36 minutes this season, a leap of 3.7 from his rookie campaign. In his second year, Garnett's per-36 average was just 16.0 points, and he didn't surpass 20 until his fifth campaign and age 23.

It's not just Garnett. Kevin Love, the league's highest-scoring big man at 26.5 PPG, averaged 17.7 points per 36 minutes in his second season. The only post player to outscore Davis at the same age in the past three decades was O'Neal, who averaged 22.2 points per 36 minutes as a rookie.

Imagine that Davis develops into a top-five scorer, a game-changing defender and a dominant rebounder. The flashes of brilliance he demonstrates on a nightly basis make that easy, if you try. That's Davis' MVP-caliber upside, one he's right on track to reaching.
 

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Yea, dude has been great this year. I hated on him @ first in college but he is legit. Going to be good for a long time
 

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