Oscar Predictions 2014

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Awards tonight, few thoughts for those who may want a bet or two.

Picture - Majority of "experts" on 12 Years with a decent few on Gravity. Almost everybody suggests this is too close to call though. Feeling is the heavier feeling 12 Years will edge it but from strictly a betting standpoint I think a bet on Gravity at near 4-1 odds is a must bet. Might want to cover on AH as well, really between these three in this order.

Best Actor - McConaughey seen as a big frontrunner and he will likely win. Leo odds have been cut but not really feeling that route. Ejiofor and Dern probably more likely than Leo if there is a big upset. Dern odds make him more interesting from a betting standpoint. Nebraska is probably more liked with the academy than the youth driven internet and having all kinds of friends in the Academy isn't going to hurt. On the surface seems very unlikely but got the feeling he is getting more votes then most believe. 40-1+ definitely worth a shot.

Sup.Actress - Nyongo v Lawrence, lean towards Nyongo getting it but current odds seem pretty on the money. Perhaps a small bet at best. Also might want to put a tiny bit on Squibb for the upset, she might be able to get 25%+ of the vote and win with vote splitting occurring.

Doc Feature - Suggested The Square as bit of a spoiler before. Still think it has a chance but getting the feeling 20 Feet From Stardom may be too hard to stop. Feel good one of the bunch with decent reviews and been on the campaign trail last few weeks. Only constant thought remained here is that despite the rave critical reviews of Act of Killing its subject matter will be too difficult for members and it shouldn't be the favorite.

Foreign - Believe Great Beauty is a vulnerable frontrunner, I think votes are being spread around. Suppose in the end that might help Great Beauty but I certainly don't get the feeling it is going to get 30%+ of the vote. The Hunt probably next in line with Broken Circle Breakdown also possible. Maybe even Omar could win. Best bet is to oppose Great Beauty, don't have a strong feeling on the next likeliest though.

Costume - Again weak frontrunner imo. Gatsby not well liked and only with two nominations here and in Production Design, not sure it takes both. I think Hustle is a serious threat and 12 Years also possible. Roughly +200 if you try this.

Live Action Short - Voorman Problem listed the favorite but I'm pretty sure its not winning. From the sounds of it the French entry Just before losing Everything should win with rave reviews but it might be spoiled by a sappy bait type entry called Helium. Confident it will be one of these two with the French film still a bit more likely to take it.


gl
 

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all to win 1 unit.

1. cuaron -1450 best director
2. blanchett -1900 best actress
3. leto-1200 best supporting actor
4. frozen-4000 best animated feature
 

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The 86th Academy Awards air Sunday, March 2 at 8:30 p.m. on ABC.
If you have one of these eight cable providers and live in one of eight certain cities (New York, Los Angeles, Chicago, Philadelphia, San Francisco, Houston, Raleigh-Durham and Fresno), you can also watch on the Watch ABC app or ABC.com.
What time will the Oscars be over?
Hopefully 11:30 p.m., but you know how those acceptance speeches go – add some extra time to your DVR.
Who is hosting the show?
Talk show host/comedian Ellen DeGeneres, who hosts for a second time; she first helmed the show back in 2007 when “The Departed” won Best Picture. DeGeneres is also the anti-Seth MacFarlane, who made a lot of people mad with his frat boy humor when he hosted last year.
Who is going to win?
Our critics will tell you! “American Hustle” and “Gravity” are tied for the most nominations with 10 each, while “12 Years a Slave” has nine nods.
 

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all to win 1 unit.

1. cuaron -1450 best director
2. blanchett -1900 best actress
3. leto-1200 best supporting actor
4. frozen-4000 best animated feature
its a lot of juice, have you missed one yet doing this?
 

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its a lot of juice, have you missed one yet doing this?

once. years ago..like in 2002..for Amelie..best foreign movie..-500. 2500 to win 500. roger ebert said it was a lock.
I've never bet on a foreign film again.
 

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The 86th Academy Awards air Sunday, March 2 at 8:30 p.m. on ABC.
If you have one of these eight cable providers and live in one of eight certain cities (New York, Los Angeles, Chicago, Philadelphia, San Francisco, Houston, Raleigh-Durham and Fresno), you can also watch on the Watch ABC app or ABC.com.
What time will the Oscars be over?
Hopefully 11:30 p.m., but you know how those acceptance speeches go – add some extra time to your DVR.
Who is hosting the show?
Talk show host/comedian Ellen DeGeneres, who hosts for a second time; she first helmed the show back in 2007 when “The Departed” won Best Picture. DeGeneres is also the anti-Seth MacFarlane, who made a lot of people mad with his frat boy humor when he hosted last year.
Who is going to win?
Our critics will tell you! “American Hustle” and “Gravity” are tied for the most nominations with 10 each, while “12 Years a Slave” has nine nods.
their expert critics pick all the heavy chalk, with one exception a single vote for judi dench
anybody got a longshot w/ a realistic shot at winning?
 

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When the Academy starts splitting these votes on 3 or more strong contenders I've learned anything can happen. I look for an upset in the Best Supporting actress more than any other category. Personally I liked Squibb's performance more than any of the others. I think she has a pretty good chance. I liked McConaughey's performance more than any. But if the Academy falls in love with 12 Years a Slave, the momentum could carry Ejifor to the win. It wouldn't be a big disappointment, he was pretty good too. I thought Leo was way over the top in his Wolf of Wall Street role. I don't think it takes a lot of acting chops to do that kind of acting compared to MM's role. I agree that with a split vote between the top 3 that Dern could come in and steal it. He's got the kind of odds that makes me want to put a little money down on him. However, the Academy doesn't consist of quite as many of the crusty old farts as it used to have. It's why we haven't seen a whole lot of big surprises in the last few years. Especially in the best actor/actrss/picture category.
 

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I think at last check roughly 15% are under 50, so still quite old.

Longshots worth a bite;

sup actress - Squibb min 30-1
actor - Dern min 40-1 & Ejiofor min 12-1
score -Saving Mr. Banks min 17-1
production - Her min 15-1
 

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I think at last check roughly 15% are under 50, so still quite old.

Longshots worth a bite;

sup actress - Squibb min 30-1
actor - Dern min 40-1 & Ejiofor min 12-1
score -Saving Mr. Banks min 17-1
production - Her min 15-1
I think some of the older over 50 academy voters we have now like Tom Hanks, Meryle Streep or Spielberg are much more open minded than the voters we had 20 or 30 years ago. The scary part about the Academy and what makes it unpredictable is many of the lifetime academy voters have been out of acting business for many years. It's not even guaranteed that they are even interested anymore and watch all of these movies. I know I download a ton of movie Torrents this time of year that are pre-screened copies that were sent to academy voters. Hopefully they took the time to watch them before disgarding them and uploading them to the net.
 

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i dont think dern deserves it, but took a shot at 55-1, as these old farts sometimes give them out as a lifetime achievement award.
feel like McConaughey does deserve it, but who knows maybe the academy doesnt appreciate the subject matter of the movie.
 

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Awards tonight, few thoughts for those who may want a bet or two.

Picture - Majority of "experts" on 12 Years with a decent few on Gravity. Almost everybody suggests this is too close to call though. Feeling is the heavier feeling 12 Years will edge it but from strictly a betting standpoint I think a bet on Gravity at near 4-1 odds is a must bet. Might want to cover on AH as well, really between these three in this order.

Best Actor - McConaughey seen as a big frontrunner and he will likely win. Leo odds have been cut but not really feeling that route. Ejiofor and Dern probably more likely than Leo if there is a big upset. Dern odds make him more interesting from a betting standpoint. Nebraska is probably more liked with the academy than the youth driven internet and having all kinds of friends in the Academy isn't going to hurt. On the surface seems very unlikely but got the feeling he is getting more votes then most believe. 40-1+ definitely worth a shot.

Sup.Actress - Nyongo v Lawrence, lean towards Nyongo getting it but current odds seem pretty on the money. Perhaps a small bet at best. Also might want to put a tiny bit on Squibb for the upset, she might be able to get 25%+ of the vote and win with vote splitting occurring.

Doc Feature - Suggested The Square as bit of a spoiler before. Still think it has a chance but getting the feeling 20 Feet From Stardom may be too hard to stop. Feel good one of the bunch with decent reviews and been on the campaign trail last few weeks. Only constant thought remained here is that despite the rave critical reviews of Act of Killing its subject matter will be too difficult for members and it shouldn't be the favorite.

Foreign - Believe Great Beauty is a vulnerable frontrunner, I think votes are being spread around. Suppose in the end that might help Great Beauty but I certainly don't get the feeling it is going to get 30%+ of the vote. The Hunt probably next in line with Broken Circle Breakdown also possible. Maybe even Omar could win. Best bet is to oppose Great Beauty, don't have a strong feeling on the next likeliest though.

Costume - Again weak frontrunner imo. Gatsby not well liked and only with two nominations here and in Production Design, not sure it takes both. I think Hustle is a serious threat and 12 Years also possible. Roughly +200 if you try this.

Live Action Short - Voorman Problem listed the favorite but I'm pretty sure its not winning. From the sounds of it the French entry Just before losing Everything should win with rave reviews but it might be spoiled by a sappy bait type entry called Helium. Confident it will be one of these two with the French film still a bit more likely to take it.


gl

Doesn't look like much value this year or many solid picks standing out huh?
 

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Value there but not certain anything hits. Live action probably offers the most value, pretty certain Voorman is not winning. Gravity 4-1 for best pic is good value, should probably be around 2-1. Foreign and Doc with weak favorites as I mentioned earlier.
 

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i dont think dern deserves it, but took a shot at 55-1, as these old farts sometimes give them out as a lifetime achievement award.
feel like McConaughey does deserve it, but who knows maybe the academy doesnt appreciate the subject matter of the movie.
McConaughey definitely deserves it. But something tells me either Dern or Sqibb are going to steal one of these awards tonight.
 

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Upset Alert: Mr. Hublot, which was +700, wins Best Animated Short Film.
 

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and the most beautiful women on the planet goes to.........Charlize Theron
 

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With Gravity taking away all of these awards, I'm thinking we could see an upset in either the Best Actress, Director or Best Picture category. Best Pic might not be a bad bet.
 

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Saw the line on Cuaron go from -1400 to -900 and then they bring out Sidney Poitier to present best director and I'm thinking Steve McQueen might be getting this....
another great Oscar night for chalk favorites...the only upsets happen in obscure categories...tonight it was -700 favorite in Get a Horse losing.
4-0, +4.00 units.
 

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Well took a loss this year, only a couple hits and no big winners. Wasn't meant to be this time around. All but one category the betting favorite prevailed, as red mentions above only the little noticed Animated Short came thru with a decent payout.

Perhaps I'll have better luck next year...or not.
 

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