2014 MLB season thread - PDWS, baseball analytics, waldos, etc

rolltide · Mar 3, 2014

this will be 2014's "pops thread" for those that were interested in the type of data we were analyzing including FIP, WHIP, umps, and now incorporating bullpen and opponent hitting stats.

We are currently working on the new 2014 master which should be up for review shortly....certainly by opening day. Lots of work to do to clean up the old data but if you remember from last year there were some really nice new FIP areas that we hope to capitalize on for a full season. Also, as starter innings continue to decline adding in bullpen info should help produce some winners and keep away from the losers that were leading 5-2 in the 4th.

I'll be posting queries from time to time that we should keep an eye on and I always appreciate any input. I'm happy to run queries that you feel might produce interesting results and you're always welcome to PM me or hit me up on twitter.

The first look at the master should be available shortly as we move on with life after pops. As he was the catalyst for the master and daily updates there's a lot of learning going on right now to make sure the baton is passed without issues.

Best of luck in 2014 and here's to a successful MLB season. GL to everyone that decides to contribute

savage55 · Mar 3, 2014

rolltide said:
this will be 2014's "pops thread" for those that were interested in the type of data we were analyzing including FIP, WHIP, umps, and now incorporating bullpen and opponent hitting stats.

We are currently working on the new 2014 master which should be up for review shortly....certainly by opening day. Lots of work to do to clean up the old data but if you remember from last year there were some really nice new FIP areas that we hope to capitalize on for a full season. Also, as starter innings continue to decline adding in bullpen info should help produce some winners and keep away from the losers that were leading 5-2 in the 4th.

I'll be posting queries from time to time that we should keep an eye on and I always appreciate any input. I'm happy to run queries that you feel might produce interesting results and you're always welcome to PM me or hit me up on twitter.

The first look at the master should be available shortly as we move on with life after pops. As he was the catalyst for the master and daily updates there's a lot of learning going on right now to make sure the baton is passed without issues.

Best of luck in 2014 and here's to a successful MLB season. GL to everyone that decides to contribute

Appreciate the update and all that u do including queries RT.. looking forward to another successful baseball season with u guys.. GL to all

Primetime27 · Mar 3, 2014

Why won't anyone answer me what the average ML hockey play is? #transparency

rolltide · Mar 4, 2014

Pitt became the first team in 3 years to lose as a DD home conference fav after winning previous away game while scoring 85+. congrats Pitt!!

HF and ..... and date > 20110301 and p:AW and p

oints >= 85

SU:	36-1 (12.19, 97.3%)
ATS:	16-20-1 (-1.07, 44.4%)	avg line: -13.3
O/U:	17-19-0 (-1.72, 47.2%)	avg total: 139.6

	FG	Pct	FT	Pct	3s	Pct	BLKS	O-RBND	RBND	Fouls	AST	TOvers	H1	H2	Final
Team	25.81	49.0	16.14	71.1	7.19	38.0	4.47	8.33	31.50	16.81	15.25	11.89	34.3	39.9	74.7
Opp	22.53	41.3	12.33	68.6	5.50	33.6	2.69	8.58	27.83	19.86	10.92	12.72	28.5	33.5	62.5

Date	Link	Day	Season	Team	Opp	Site	Final	Rest	Line	Total	SUm	ATSm	OUm	DPS	DPA	SUr	ATSr	OUr	ot
Mar 03, 2014		Mon	2013	PITT	NCSTA	home	67-74	1&1	-11.0	136.5	-7	-18.0	4.5	-6.8	11.2	L	L	O	0

rolltide · Mar 4, 2014

not historically the best spot to back the Clippers to get revenge

P:HL and P:margin <= -10 and p:ats margin > 0 and p:line <= -10 and date > 20000101

SU:	22-26 (-1.46, 45.8%)
ATS:	13-34-1 (-2.72, 27.7%)	avg line: -1.3
O/U:	26-22-0 (4.64, 54.2%)	avg total: 198.8

	FG	Pct	FT	Pct	3s	Pct	BLKS	O-RBND	RBND	Fouls	AST	TOvers	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Final
Team	38.40	46.0	17.17	74.5	7.04	36.7	4.69	11.00	40.79	19.25	22.46	12.44	25.7	26.0	24.2	24.2	101.0
Opp	39.04	47.8	17.35	74.8	7.02	38.3	4.92	10.83	42.48	20.25	23.21	13.46	27.0	25.0	24.9	25.0	102.5

Date	Link	Day	Season	Team	Opp	Site	Final	Rest	Line	Total	SUm	ATSm	OUm	DPS	DPA	SUr	ATSr	OUr	ot
Mar 04, 2014	recap	Tue	2013	Clippers	Suns	away		2&1	-3.5	218.5

rolltide · Mar 4, 2014

nice looking stuff for GS tonight

WP > 50 and p:AFL and AD and season = 2013

SU:	6-3 (2.11, 66.7%)
ATS:	9-0-0 (8.39, 100.0%)	avg line: 6.3
O/U:	4-5-0 (-4.17, 44.4%)	avg total: 207.4

	FG	Pct	FT	Pct	3s	Pct	BLKS	O-RBND	RBND	Fouls	AST	TOvers	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Final
Team	37.89	44.8	18.22	78.8	8.67	37.1	3.44	10.44	44.22	21.78	21.67	12.89	27.7	28.3	20.9	25.8	102.7
Opp	36.56	43.5	18.89	78.7	8.56	37.2	4.33	10.00	43.11	20.22	22.44	14.00	26.2	25.9	25.7	22.8	100.6

Date	Link	Day	Season	Team	Opp	Site	Final	Rest	Line	Total	SUm	ATSm	OUm	DPS	DPA	SUr	ATSr	OUr	ot
Mar 04, 2014	recap	Tue	2013	Warriors	Pacers	away		1&1	5.0	196.5

p:AFL and AD and division != o:division and o:streak >= 2 and date > 20090320

SU:	18-25 (-0.95, 41.9%)
ATS:	31-11-1 (4.48, 73.8%)	avg line: 5.4
O/U:	28-15-0 (4.90, 65.1%)	avg total: 196.7

	FG	Pct	FT	Pct	3s	Pct	BLKS	O-RBND	RBND	Fouls	AST	TOvers	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Final
Team	37.30	46.2	18.26	77.0	7.47	36.0	4.23	11.40	40.88	21.70	20.23	14.21	24.8	25.5	24.1	25.4	100.3
Opp	37.47	46.8	19.42	76.4	6.93	34.3	4.95	10.42	39.02	20.30	21.72	13.47	26.4	24.6	24.2	25.1	101.3

Date	Link	Day	Season	Team	Opp	Site	Final	Rest	Line	Total	SUm	ATSm	OUm	DPS	DPA	SUr	ATSr	OUr	ot
Mar 04, 2014	recap	Tue	2013	Warriors	Pacers	away		1&1	5.0	196.5

savage55 · Mar 4, 2014

rolltide said:
nice looking stuff for GS tonight

WP > 50 and p:AFL and AD and season = 2013

SU: 6-3 (2.11, 66.7%)
ATS: 9-0-0 (8.39, 100.0%) avg line: 6.3
O/U: 4-5-0 (-4.17, 44.4%) avg total: 207.4

<tbody>
</tbody>

FG Pct FT Pct 3s Pct BLKS O-RBND RBND Fouls AST TOvers Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Final
Team 37.89 44.8 18.22 78.8 8.67 37.1 3.44 10.44 44.22 21.78 21.67 12.89 27.7 28.3 20.9 25.8 102.7
Opp 36.56 43.5 18.89 78.7 8.56 37.2 4.33 10.00 43.11 20.22 22.44 14.00 26.2 25.9 25.7 22.8 100.6

<tbody>
</tbody>

Date Link Day Season Team Opp Site Final Rest Line Total SUm ATSm OUm DPS DPA SUr ATSr OUr ot
Mar 04, 2014 recap Tue 2013 Warriors Pacers away 1&1 5.0 196.5

<tbody>
</tbody>

<tbody>
</tbody>

p:AFL and AD and division != o:division and o:streak >= 2 and date > 20090320

SU: 18-25 (-0.95, 41.9%)
ATS: 31-11-1 (4.48, 73.8%) avg line: 5.4
O/U: 28-15-0 (4.90, 65.1%) avg total: 196.7

<tbody>
</tbody>

FG Pct FT Pct 3s Pct BLKS O-RBND RBND Fouls AST TOvers Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Final
Team 37.30 46.2 18.26 77.0 7.47 36.0 4.23 11.40 40.88 21.70 20.23 14.21 24.8 25.5 24.1 25.4 100.3
Opp 37.47 46.8 19.42 76.4 6.93 34.3 4.95 10.42 39.02 20.30 21.72 13.47 26.4 24.6 24.2 25.1 101.3

<tbody>
</tbody>

Date Link Day Season Team Opp Site Final Rest Line Total SUm ATSm OUm DPS DPA SUr ATSr OUr ot
Mar 04, 2014 recap Tue 2013 Warriors Pacers away 1&1 5.0 196.5

<tbody>
</tbody>

<tbody>
</tbody>

Thnx RT.. I wish I had the balls to take them ML

rolltide · Mar 5, 2014

this one usually finds a few nice plays in conf tournaments. actually fordham pops up on it tonight. blindly playing 8+ March dogs against <.500 teams would have won you money in 5 of last 6 years (one year you'd have gone 4-5). so far is 1-1-1 this season

not something i would personally play blindly as you can see the ats margin is very small but could be good for picking yours spots this conf tourney season

o:WP < 50 and month = 3 and D and line >= 8 and season > 2006

SU:	5-51 (-9.27, 8.9%)
ATS:	33-20-3 (0.57, 62.3%)	avg line: 9.8
O/U:	28-28-0 (1.57, 50.0%)	avg total: 129.2

	FG	Pct	FT	Pct	3s	Pct	BLKS	O-RBND	RBND	Fouls	AST	TOvers	H1	H2	Final
Team	21.68	40.2	11.09	68.8	6.32	33.4	2.61	9.45	28.14	18.93	10.75	12.61	27.9	32.8	60.8
Opp	24.00	46.6	15.71	72.5	6.32	35.8	3.84	9.52	31.66	16.46	14.12	11.66	32.8	37.1	70.0

Date	Link	Day	Season	Team	Opp	Site	Final	Rest	Line	Total	SUm	ATSm	OUm	DPS	DPA	SUr	ATSr	OUr	ot
Mar 05, 2014		Wed	2013	FORD	RI	away		3&3	9.5

colorado · Mar 5, 2014

thanks for continuing the old thread, I have learned a lot from the posters here, I look forward to reading the thread each day.

rolltide · Mar 5, 2014

I have stuff for both sides on Minny/Knicks so I'm not personally playing it but it is a classic letdown spot for Minny. In NBA teams that are home after b2b away wins make terrible bets...28-62 ATS last 2 years and just 6-26 ATS in non conference

pp:AW and p:AW and season >= 2012 and H and not C

SU:	19-13 (0.47, 59.4%)
ATS:	6-26-0 (-4.92, 18.8%)	avg line: -5.4
O/U:	13-18-1 (-1.81, 41.9%)	avg total: 196.4

	FG	Pct	FT	Pct	3s	Pct	BLKS	O-RBND	RBND	Fouls	AST	TOvers	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Final
Team	36.28	45.4	18.12	77.4	6.84	34.7	5.31	10.75	43.00	19.44	21.00	14.03	24.8	25.2	23.1	23.6	97.5
Opp	36.78	44.3	16.16	75.4	7.34	37.2	4.84	11.44	42.34	20.53	21.22	12.72	25.7	23.9	23.7	23.2	97.1

Date	Link	Day	Season	Team	Opp	Site	Final	Rest	Line	Total	SUm	ATSm	OUm	DPS	DPA	SUr	ATSr	OUr	ot
Mar 05, 2014	recap	Wed	2013	Timberwolves	Knicks	home		1&1	-8.5	211.5

savage55 · Mar 6, 2014

rolltide said:
I have stuff for both sides on Minny/Knicks so I'm not personally playing it but it is a classic letdown spot for Minny. In NBA teams that are home after b2b away wins make terrible bets...28-62 ATS last 2 years and just 6-26 ATS in non conference

pp:AW and p:AW and season >= 2012 and H and not C

SU: 19-13 (0.47, 59.4%)
ATS: 6-26-0 (-4.92, 18.8%) avg line: -5.4
O/U: 13-18-1 (-1.81, 41.9%) avg total: 196.4

<tbody>
</tbody>

FG Pct FT Pct 3s Pct BLKS O-RBND RBND Fouls AST TOvers Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Final
Team 36.28 45.4 18.12 77.4 6.84 34.7 5.31 10.75 43.00 19.44 21.00 14.03 24.8 25.2 23.1 23.6 97.5
Opp 36.78 44.3 16.16 75.4 7.34 37.2 4.84 11.44 42.34 20.53 21.22 12.72 25.7 23.9 23.7 23.2 97.1

<tbody>
</tbody>

Date Link Day Season Team Opp Site Final Rest Line Total SUm ATSm OUm DPS DPA SUr ATSr OUr ot
Mar 05, 2014 recap Wed 2013 Timberwolves Knicks home 1&1 -8.5 211.5

<tbody>
</tbody>

<tbody>
</tbody>

<tbody>
</tbody>

another ML winner.. thnx Roll

INTHEEND · Mar 6, 2014

Could you run the above query again using just hm dog and hm fav. I had a record using openers of a pick and less for dogs of 6-19. I am sure we won't match as two dif data bases but should represent something decent.

I have stuff for both sides on Minny/Knicks so I'm not personally playing it but it is a classic letdown spot for Minny. In NBA teams that are home after b2b away wins make terrible bets...28-62 ATS last 2 years and just 6-26 ATS in non conference

rolltide · Mar 6, 2014

pp:AW and p:AW and season >= 2012 and HD and not C

SU:	0-6 (-9.00, 0.0%)
ATS:	1-5-0 (-5.08, 16.7%)	avg line: 3.9
O/U:	3-3-0 (-1.25, 50.0%)	avg total: 194.9

pp:AW and p:AW and season >= 2012 and HF and not C

SU:	19-7 (2.42, 73.1%)
ATS:	5-21-0 (-5.44, 19.2%)	avg line: -7.9
O/U:	11-14-1 (-0.83, 44.0%)	avg total: 197.7

there was one pk line in there... wouldn't show if using HD or HF

Feb 20, 2013

recap

Wed

2012

Raptors

Grizzlies

home

82-88

0&0

0.0

186.0

-6

-6.0

-16.0

-11.0

-5.0

L

U

0

drpugilist · Mar 6, 2014

ctp or roll. are you guys going to continue to post the pdws or have those gone away or not made public any longer? thanks.

savage55 · Mar 6, 2014

Roll does SA/Miami fit East coast visiting west coast and total 205 or greater take under? Is SA considered a WC team? Yes I no there is the West Conference..

rolltide · Mar 6, 2014

savage55 said:
Roll does SA/Miami fit East coast visiting west coast and total 205 or greater take under? Is SA considered a WC team? Yes I no there is the West Conference..

no, game is west visiting east ... u need east visiting west like Atl at Port last night

rolltide · Mar 6, 2014

drpugilist said:
ctp or roll. are you guys going to continue to post the pdws or have those gone away or not made public any longer? thanks.

I'm sure we can put some version out though but we're really in a time transitioning from pops to others so give us another few days just to make sure all the data is being pulled correctly

rolltide · Mar 6, 2014

Sorry, of course this was west hosting east...been a wild week...just nonstop on three job fronts.

drpugilist · Mar 7, 2014

rolltide said:
I'm sure we can put some version out though but we're really in a time transitioning from pops to others so give us another few days just to make sure all the data is being pulled correctly

no prob, i was mainly referring to when mlb starts. although, i may be limited knowledge wise, ive got plenty of free time so let me know if i can help in any way.

savage55 · Mar 7, 2014

rolltide said:
Sorry, of course this was west hosting east...been a wild week...just nonstop on three job fronts.

I played the under small and it worked out.. Got another 1 tonight with Atl at GS

2014 MLB season thread - PDWS, baseball analytics, waldos, etc

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