[h=2]Cleveland Indians: OVER 80.5 wins [/h] That number looks … off, doesn’t it? The Indians surged to 92 wins last year behind one of the most powerful offenses in the league and a young, effective starting rotation. Very little has changed for the worse. While losing Ubaldo Jimenez’s impressive 2013 numbers will hurt, getting a full season from Official 2013 Grantland Crush Danny Salazar and a breakout campaign from fellow right-handed starter Corey Kluber could mitigate that loss. With none of Cleveland’s five projected starters older than 28, there’s upside across the board here.
If you’re looking for an X factor, though, consider something for which the typical projection systems and even Vegas likely won’t properly account: This season, Carlos Santana will no longer be Cleveland’s primary catcher. Whether you’re examining multiyear or single-year numbers, Santana consistently grades out as one of the worst pitch framers in the game. And while analysts are just beginning to quantify the effects of pitch blocking and other defensive skills for catchers, the industry consensus has long been that Santana is a designated hitter who happens to wear a mask. Assuming the Tribe do the right thing by making Santana the everyday DH while handing primary backstop duties to Yan Gomes, who was one of the best receivers in the league last year according to the above metrics, it wouldn’t be a stretch to project something like a two- or three-win improvement based on that move alone. And that might even be understating it. If Gomes’s defensive skills are allowed to flourish over 120-plus starts, it could help push Cleveland’s young staff to elite status this season.
Combine all that with a balanced lineup that will get even better when top shortstop prospect Francisco Lindor reaches the big leagues — and frees up the Indians to consider trading Asdrubal Cabrera to address whatever weaknesses might arise — and it’s really tough to imagine the Indians finishing below .500 … which is what would have to happen to lose this bet. This is my highest-confidence wager for 2014.
If you’re looking for an X factor, though, consider something for which the typical projection systems and even Vegas likely won’t properly account: This season, Carlos Santana will no longer be Cleveland’s primary catcher. Whether you’re examining multiyear or single-year numbers, Santana consistently grades out as one of the worst pitch framers in the game. And while analysts are just beginning to quantify the effects of pitch blocking and other defensive skills for catchers, the industry consensus has long been that Santana is a designated hitter who happens to wear a mask. Assuming the Tribe do the right thing by making Santana the everyday DH while handing primary backstop duties to Yan Gomes, who was one of the best receivers in the league last year according to the above metrics, it wouldn’t be a stretch to project something like a two- or three-win improvement based on that move alone. And that might even be understating it. If Gomes’s defensive skills are allowed to flourish over 120-plus starts, it could help push Cleveland’s young staff to elite status this season.
Combine all that with a balanced lineup that will get even better when top shortstop prospect Francisco Lindor reaches the big leagues — and frees up the Indians to consider trading Asdrubal Cabrera to address whatever weaknesses might arise — and it’s really tough to imagine the Indians finishing below .500 … which is what would have to happen to lose this bet. This is my highest-confidence wager for 2014.
Don't forget that they also lost Kazmir in free agency, not just Jimenez, plus Joe Smith (one of their best RPs last year). Carrasco/Marcum as their #5 starter looks like trouble, especially if one of their top4 guys goes down or Salazar hits a wall late in the season once his IP total runs up.
Took:
BAL o79 -115 (great defense, Davis probably not repeating his 2013 numbers but added another power bat in Nelson Cruz, Reimold another decent bat and Schoop might be an upgrade at 2nd. Rotation has no real ace but is very balanced at Hammels weak 2013 numbers were replaced by Ubaldo Jimenez, who should at least deliver an ERA around 4. Lost Jim Johnson, but JJ blew a bunch of leads last year and I'm high on Hunter, also still like their bullpen and overall depth. Should hover around .500 at least). 83+
Added:
ATL u87.5 +100 (if they stay healthy and their OF can regain their past prime forms, they'll get to 90. Just don't see that happening: BJ Upton hasn't performed well for quite some time now, Justin Upton might bounce back, but didn't like his batting approach last year at all and Heyward has trouble staying healthy. Gattis imo will struggle catching a whole season, the team as a whole strikes out a ton and with the exception of Freeman (and Heyward) doesn't get on base a lot and has no depth aside from C/1B. Bullpen still good with great closer, but lost several very good arms (O'Flaherty, Downs, Ayala) and starting rotation looks great without a true ace, but won't make it through the year: Medlen already complaining about some discomfort and resting, Minor had some minor issues too, Beachy a huge question mark after 2 huge surgeries incl. TJ and just throwing about 80IP in b2b season, also left todays spring start after just 2IP instead of the planned 4IP and Wood also huge ??? once his IP-total gets to 140+. They have lots of pitching depth with guys like Hale, but even ATL would struggle to replace two SPs...). 81-86, depending on injuries...
Thinking about:
ARI o81, NYM o74, NYY u87.
Agree with Peta about NYY, love both Japanese SPs, but not much depth behind them and Kuroda can hardly be expected to improve on last years numbers and Tanaka won't be such a huge upgrade since Pettitte already performed very well. Some huge upgrades like McCann (instead of .200 pushovers like Stewart/Romine), maybe best offensive OF, but defense looks bad on paper, unless they start Ryan (terrible bat) maybe the worst middle infield defensively and bottom lineup looks weak. Don't expect much offensively from Jeter or Tex, so that would mean not much production from 1st, 2nd, 3rd, SS, while having only two very strong pitchers with no depth and losing Rivera, Logan, Chamberlain (the latter being addition by subtraction) in the pen. 85 or less
ARI added Trumbo, imo will be a huge presence in the lineup pushing for 40HRs. Rotation got bolstered by Arroyo, McCarthy will be back after being hit by that comebacker, maybe in June they promote their top prospect Bradley...again no real ace, but balanced starting rotation with lots of depth (even without Bradley, they have McCarthy or Delgado as #5 + additional depth). Very deep bullpen, too, after adding Addison Reed & Oli Perez. I see them at 82-85.
NYM lost Harvey + Hawkins, but have way more pitching depth than last year: Colon should provide them with a nice replacement for Harvey, Niese should perform better than last season when he wasn't 100%, Wheeler should only continue to get better, Gee improved after the ASB, Mejia looked very good, Syndergaard might get his shot in June...Bullpen is kind of a question mark, but imo will be decent enough, at least not worse than last season. So they should get way better pitching despite the loss of Harvey since they won't have to start guys like Dice-K, Marcum or Harang this year, plus their anemic offense from last year left them not much room to do anything else than improve...Byrd is gone, but Granderson/Young will be significant upgrades over last years OFs not named Byrd, ike Davis can't do worse (plus Duda might take his job at 1st anyways) and D'Arnaud was one of the top hitting prospects at C, so you should expect an improvement over his 2013 numbers...Their overall defense is very good too, so imo they will do better than last year by going the Tampa route (pitching + defense), when they already won 74
Placed a big bet on OAK under 88.5 -115
Lost Colon in free agency to the Mets, who gave them 190IP in 30 starts last year at an extremely high level with and ERA at 2.65 and 1.17 WHIP. They got Kazmir to replace him. While a regression for Colon might have been due & Kazmir might be put up similar numbers to what Colon would have put up in 2014, I have one big problem with that switch: Kazmir hasn't topped 160IP for more than 5 years, had lots of injuries in the past and in 2012 only played some independent ball before throwing a 5year high IP total for the Indians last year (still slightly less than 160IP). I just don't see him getting near 200IP and possibly a couple of missed starts along the way and even though it's called just precaution, him sitting out some time, getting scratched from starts and having starts pushed back during spring training does anything but underline my concerns about him.
Now Parker, their support #1 starter will miss the whole season due to TJ surgery, Griffin also has struggled healthwise and will miss probably at least the whole 1st month, which leaves them with a rotation of Kazmir, Gray, Straily, Milone & Jesse Chavez. Milone got sent down to AAA last year, but had some success esp. at the Colloseum, but even though that still might be a very decent starting rotation, it's nothing special, the pitching depth they had before those injuries is already gone and any further injury would have them reach down their farm system.
Their bullpen looks extremely good on paper, but might have to throw a lot of IP since Kazmir, Gray, Straily and in the 2nd half even a struggling Milone many times didn't even make it out of the 6th inning. Add in Chavez, a converted reliever, that rotation might tax these bullpen arm a lot, which then again might come back to haunt them in August or September.
Plus they have a couple minor injuries in their offense to key guys like Donaldson, who they cant really afford to lose and Cespedes is struggling like hell so far in spring with his new stands. Their defense is top notch and their offense has always been decent enough to win a bunch of games thanks to their extra-ordinary good pitching, but just don't think that they can make up for all those injuries this year.
Line should be adjusted to 86 with all those injuries, even more so when you think about the Angels probably being slightly better after that bad 2013 season with a constantly injured Pujols & Weaver missing several weeks + a backend of their rotation that cant really be worse than it was last year with Hanson & Blanton and with HOU + SEA also looking better on paper than last year.
PS: Got out of that ARI bet due to Corbin's expected TJ, +102 o81.5 and -110 under 81.5, paid some juice but losing their ace and possibly going from Corbin to Delgado for two months is just too much of a downgrade
Lost Colon in free agency to the Mets, who gave them 190IP in 30 starts last year at an extremely high level with and ERA at 2.65 and 1.17 WHIP. They got Kazmir to replace him. While a regression for Colon might have been due & Kazmir might be put up similar numbers to what Colon would have put up in 2014, I have one big problem with that switch: Kazmir hasn't topped 160IP for more than 5 years, had lots of injuries in the past and in 2012 only played some independent ball before throwing a 5year high IP total for the Indians last year (still slightly less than 160IP). I just don't see him getting near 200IP and possibly a couple of missed starts along the way and even though it's called just precaution, him sitting out some time, getting scratched from starts and having starts pushed back during spring training does anything but underline my concerns about him.
Now Parker, their support #1 starter will miss the whole season due to TJ surgery, Griffin also has struggled healthwise and will miss probably at least the whole 1st month, which leaves them with a rotation of Kazmir, Gray, Straily, Milone & Jesse Chavez. Milone got sent down to AAA last year, but had some success esp. at the Colloseum, but even though that still might be a very decent starting rotation, it's nothing special, the pitching depth they had before those injuries is already gone and any further injury would have them reach down their farm system.
Their bullpen looks extremely good on paper, but might have to throw a lot of IP since Kazmir, Gray, Straily and in the 2nd half even a struggling Milone many times didn't even make it out of the 6th inning. Add in Chavez, a converted reliever, that rotation might tax these bullpen arm a lot, which then again might come back to haunt them in August or September.
Plus they have a couple minor injuries in their offense to key guys like Donaldson, who they cant really afford to lose and Cespedes is struggling like hell so far in spring with his new stands. Their defense is top notch and their offense has always been decent enough to win a bunch of games thanks to their extra-ordinary good pitching, but just don't think that they can make up for all those injuries this year.
Line should be adjusted to 86 with all those injuries, even more so when you think about the Angels probably being slightly better after that bad 2013 season with a constantly injured Pujols & Weaver missing several weeks + a backend of their rotation that cant really be worse than it was last year with Hanson & Blanton and with HOU + SEA also looking better on paper than last year.
PS: Got out of that ARI bet due to Corbin's expected TJ, +102 o81.5 and -110 under 81.5, paid some juice but losing their ace and possibly going from Corbin to Delgado for two months is just too much of a downgrade
ATL u87.5 +100 (if they stay healthy and their OF can regain their past prime forms, they'll get to 90. Just don't see that happening: BJ Upton hasn't performed well for quite some time now, Justin Upton might bounce back, but didn't like his batting approach last year at all and Heyward has trouble staying healthy. Gattis imo will struggle catching a whole season, the team as a whole strikes out a ton and with the exception of Freeman (and Heyward) doesn't get on base a lot and has no depth aside from C/1B. Bullpen still good with great closer, but lost several very good arms (O'Flaherty, Downs, Ayala) and starting rotation looks great without a true ace, but won't make it through the year: Medlen already complaining about some discomfort and resting, Minor had some minor issues too, Beachy a huge question mark after 2 huge surgeries incl. TJ and just throwing about 80IP in b2b season, also left todays spring start after just 2IP instead of the planned 4IP and Wood also huge ??? once his IP-total gets to 140+. They have lots of pitching depth with guys like Hale, but even ATL would struggle to replace two SPs...). 81-86, depending on injuries...
destroyed by injuries already, hope u had already bet this as i dont see any way they reach 87, under now only -130
destroyed by injuries already, hope u had already bet this as i dont see any way they reach 87, under now only -130
