[h=2]New York Yankees: UNDER 86.5 wins[/h] Yes, the Yankees bought a bunch of 30-plus players who probably won’t look too hot at the end of their contracts. Again. Still, let’s not be too cynical about these offseason pickups. Assuming he stays upright for a full season, Jacoby Ellsbury will give the Yanks terrific speed while augmenting their outfield defense, and Yankee Stadium’s short porch could invite a bit of a power spike, even if that spike falls a bit short of Ellsbury’s still-inexplicable 32-homer binge in 2011. Brian McCann could wind up being one of the biggest upgrades for any team at any position, as he’ll bring his lefty power, strong batting eye, and excellent defense to a roster slot that featured Chris Stewart and a bag of wet noodles in 2013. Carlos Beltran carries the biggest performance risk of the three as he approaches his 37th birthday, but he too could get a boost from Yankee Stadium’s friendly dimensions. Meanwhile, Masahiro Tanaka comes with some risk due to an increase in competition and all the innings already on his pitching odometer at age 25 … but things would have to go pretty badly for him to match the level of spookiness Phil Hughes delivered last year. Credit Brian Cashman for recognizing that the Yankees won 85 games last year, but also allowed more runs than they scored, thus profiling more like a sub-.500 ball club in need of a major overhaul than a true contender.
The problem is that spending more than $400 million on those four free agents still doesn’t make the Yankees the World Series contenders they’re hoping to again become. Frankly, looking at this roster, it’s hard not to wonder if the Yanks can even hit 85 wins again. Derek Jeter and Mark Teixeira will be back, but Jeter turns 40 in June and might not have much left in the tank, while Teixeira has admitted that the injured wrist that cost him most of last year won’t be 100 percent for a while, assuming it ever gets there this year. Losing Robinson Cano, of course, subtracts the team’s best player from the roster, and Brian Roberts is simply too old and injury-prone at this stage to expect much from him in 2014. Don’t sleep on Mariano Rivera’s absence, either. While the amount of pomp and circumstance thrown his way last year exceeded his value on the field, Rivera was still a very good relief pitcher whose loss will force others to occupy more high-leverage roles. David Robertson may be a fine closer, but expecting the newly signed Matt Thornton to handle a key setup role is likely asking too much, and the young power arms elsewhere in the pen have talent, but also carry plenty of risk.
The Yankees could be a pretty good team this year, and may even make it to Labor Day still on the fringes of the wild-card race. But I don’t see 87 wins here, due to what could be the worst infield in baseball and a bullpen that brings up more questions than a true contender should have to answer.