Arizona Diamondbacks: OVER 81 wins. This line was originally 80 wins, which somehow looked a lot better; maybe the fact that Arizona won exactly 81 games in each of the past two seasons has something to do with that. Still, this does look like a promising team, and possibly a wild-card contender. I mentioned Trumbo’s warts earlier, but he could hit 40 home runs at Chase Field (a better park for power hitters than Angel Stadium), which would certainly bolster the lineup. Miguel Montero is due for a rebound season after struggling last year. We could see full seasons for Aaron Hill (quite possible) and Brandon McCarthy (extensive injury history, but the skill is there); Bronson Arroyo’s on board to soak up innings; and Archie Bradley, who might be the best pitching prospect in the game, could make his major league debut fairly soon. If the NL West didn’t look so tough this year with the loaded Dodgers, the sleeper Padres, and the bounce-back contender Giants, I probably would’ve jumped on this bet.
Houston Astros: OVER 63 wins; Miami Marlins: OVER 69.5 wins; Chicago Cubs: OVER 69 .5 wins. All these lines started lower before the sharps got smart and adjusted. Still, there’s upside in these bets. The Astros finally took steps toward present-day respectability when they acquired Dexter Fowler and Scott Feldman over the winter. The Marlins will start two infielders who weren’t even in the majors last year in Casey McGehee and Rafael Furcal, but they also have a potentially electric young starting rotation, especially if top prospect Andrew Heaney pulls off anything close to a Jose Fernandez 2013 impression. The Cubs, meanwhile, figure to get better as Starlin Castro shakes off an oddly ugly 2013 season, Anthony Rizzo continues to develop, and the first members of the mega-talented prospect brigade start to arrive. These also-ran teams could go into selling mode and wind up with worse second-half rosters than first-half rosters, but considering how few trade chips they have, taking the over might be smart
Houston Astros: OVER 63 wins; Miami Marlins: OVER 69.5 wins; Chicago Cubs: OVER 69 .5 wins. All these lines started lower before the sharps got smart and adjusted. Still, there’s upside in these bets. The Astros finally took steps toward present-day respectability when they acquired Dexter Fowler and Scott Feldman over the winter. The Marlins will start two infielders who weren’t even in the majors last year in Casey McGehee and Rafael Furcal, but they also have a potentially electric young starting rotation, especially if top prospect Andrew Heaney pulls off anything close to a Jose Fernandez 2013 impression. The Cubs, meanwhile, figure to get better as Starlin Castro shakes off an oddly ugly 2013 season, Anthony Rizzo continues to develop, and the first members of the mega-talented prospect brigade start to arrive. These also-ran teams could go into selling mode and wind up with worse second-half rosters than first-half rosters, but considering how few trade chips they have, taking the over might be smart
