[h=1]Ranking the nation's top 25 players[/h][h=3]Based purely on performance, a list of the best players in college hoops[/h]By John Gasaway | ESPN Insider
Now that the regular season has been in the books for a few hours, I decided it's high time that I update my rankings of the top 25 players in Division I. The premise of my list is simple:
The NBA doesn't exist. If we were evaluating these players purely on college production and not on anticipated professional potential, who would rise to the top as the best performers in Division I?
To find that answer, I've gone back to a number of my preferred information sources, including but not limited to:
• My observations based on watching hundreds of hours of college hoops (I like my job)
• The excellent individual player stats generated by Ken Pomeroy at kenpom.com
• Data on play-by-play performance collected by Jeff Haley and available at hoop-math.com
• Translations that project NBA performance based on college metrics, compiled by Insider colleague Kevin Pelton
Here are my choices for the 25 best players in the college game.
(Who'd I miss? Let me know in the comments and on Twitter -- @JohnGasaway.)
Note: Statistics through games of March 8.
1. Doug McDermott, Creighton Bluejays
It's been a while since we've seen a scorer from the top third of Division I combine accuracy and volume the way McDermott has in 2013-14. The first place to check is 2010-11, when both Arizona's Derrick Williams and BYU's Jimmer Fredette had seasons for the ages. Turns out Williams was even more accurate than McDermott from the field and at the line (as measured by true shooting percentage), but the Wildcats star carried a much smaller workload on offense. Fredette shouldered a similar load but was less accurate.
No, to find a worthy comparison for McDermott, we may have to expand our search, whether to include mid-major sensations (Damian Lillard in 2011-12? Stephen Curry in 2007-08?) or to encompass major conference stars from the far fringes of trusty metric history (Christian Laettner in 1991-92?).
You get the point: McDermott has been extraordinary, posting shooting percentages of 56, 45 and 87 on 2s, 3s and free throws, respectively, while recording 38 percent of the Creighton attempts that occur while he's on the floor.
That being said, the true measure of McDermott's individual excellence is what Creighton has been able to accomplish as a team on offense. (Defense, granted, is another matter.) The Bluejays have ranked in the top 10 nationally in offensive efficiency for the balance of the past two seasons. With all due respect to Ethan Wragge's shot-making or Greg McDermott's play calling, in a year or two we may look back on this multiseason run of high efficiency and reflect that No. 3 in the Creighton uniform had something to do with that. Doug McDermott has been quite simply the best player in Division I this season.
2. Jabari Parker, Duke Blue Devils
Mike Krzyzewski has handed the entirety of the Duke offense over to Parker to an extent that we haven't seen in Durham since the days of J.J. Redick. Keep in mind that Redick had to work up to that point over the course of four seasons. Parker, conversely, was given the keys to the Blue Devils offense at the tender age of 18. (He will turn 19 on Saturday.) Given that Duke has quite possibly the best offense in the country -- one that has scored 1.19 points per possession in ACC play -- I put it to you that the freshman must be doing something right.
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For starters, Parker is a 6-foot-8 power forward who forces opponents to guard him everywhere on the floor. His perimeter range -- hitting 37 percent of his 3s -- is underrated simply because the Blue Devils have a wealth of long-range options. But there's no mistaking Parker's production inside the arc, as he draws six fouls per 40 minutes and makes better than half of his 2s. He is also the best defensive rebounder on the Blue Devils roster, pulling down 24 percent of opponents' misses during his minutes.
If Parker is serious about possibly returning for his sophomore season, he will be the consensus preseason national player of the year. Then again, if he enters the draft, as seems more likely, he can expect to be one of the first three or four players selected. These are good choices to have five days shy of your 19th birthday.
3. Russ Smith, Louisville Cardinals
Established stars who switch positions are rare. Ones who switch and thrive in their new roles are rarer still. Smith has done just that, making the transition from shoot-first combo guard to shoot-first point guard and doing so while continuing his excellent run of harassing defense.
Smith is enjoying far and away the most accurate season of his career from the field (though his shooting at the line, oddly, has dipped from 80 to 70 percent), and his point guard skills have proved to be outstanding. In fact, Smith's rate stats for assists and turnovers are similar to what Shabazz Napier has posted.
I don't suppose he's a true point guard, whatever that is, but he has been an outstanding one for Rick Pitino this season.
4. Marcus Smart, Oklahoma State Cowboys
In light of his career 30 percent 3-point shooting, it's fair to say Smart can't be your team's primary perimeter threat. But outside of that one issue, the Cowboys star has been pretty much as amazing with his on-court performance as everyone says he is (no mean feat).
In his sophomore season, Smart has improved his performance significantly as a scoring point guard under both the "scoring" and "point guard" headings. Even as he's taken on a heavier workload in the OSU offense, he has raised his 2-point accuracy by more than 5 percentage points. Smart's rate stats for assists and turnovers have both headed in the right directions (up and down, respectively), and he draws nearly seven fouls per 40 minutes. And he is still a force of nature on defense. Since coming back from his three-game suspension, Smart has recorded 22 steals in the 289 possessions he's been on the floor.
Whether he's sitting out as a result of his shove of a Texas Tech fan, serially flopping or squabbling with a blogger, the 2013-14 national preseason player of the year has never lacked for coverage. That's what you get with Smart, granted, but we shouldn't let all the headlines obscure an important fact: The kid can play.
5. Fred VanVleet, Wichita State Shockers
VanVleet has recorded what may justly be termed a near-perfect season for a pass-first point guard. Coaches can put a frame around this season, point to it and say simply, "Do what VanVleet did."
Gregg Marshall's 5-11 floor general hasn't committed more than two turnovers in a game in over a month. VanVleet can step forward as a scorer if necessary -- in one three-game stretch in February he put up 55 points -- but in a rotation that came close to sweeping the first-team All-Missouri Valley balloting, that usually isn't necessary. VanVleet is also a highly disruptive defender. When Evansville looked ready to challenge the Shockers in the first half of an MVC tournament quarterfinal Friday, WSU's sophomore quickly showed Cinderella the door with steals on back-to-back possessions.
VanVleet was lightly recruited as a prospect in Rockford, Ill., and so he chose to sign early with Marshall and venture 677 miles away to Wichita. In so doing, he left behind a good number of nearby Big Ten head coaches who now kick themselves with regularity.
6. Sean Kilpatrick, Cincinnati Bearcats
With Kilpatrick we encounter a new form of excellence on this list. The top four players in these rankings are the featured scorers for very good or even great offenses. By the same token, player No. 5 is the pass-first floor general for such an offense. But -- and I mean this as a compliment -- Kilpatrick happens to be the featured scorer for a thoroughly mediocre offense, which is a big part of why he's so great.
Kilpatrick takes the floor every game against defenses that, with all due respect to the underrated Justin Jackson, aren't and need not be concerned with much beyond stopping Kilpatrick. Yet somehow Mick Cronin's star has put together a season that can justly stand on its own individual merits alongside those recorded by the McDermotts and Parkers in this discussion. (Just imagine what we might have seen from Kilpatrick in 2013-14 if he had played in an offense with multiple scoring threats. Unbelievable.)
Sometimes a star comprises more or less the entirety of opponents' scouting reports. To see such a star refuse to commit turnovers while shouldering the scoring burden, drawing six fouls a game and shooting 84 percent at the line gives new meaning to the phrase "carrying the offense." Forget mock drafts. Give me Kilpatrick and VanVleet and you can pick the other three. I'll win some games.
7. Jordan Adams, UCLA Bruins
Adams' impact on college basketball games has far exceeded his name recognition or, to this point, his draft buzz. His ostentatiously high steal percentage (even higher than Smart's) is partly a function of the time he was mean to poor, helpless Sacramento State in November, but it's also partly legitimate; Adams notched five steals in the Bruins' impressive 86-66 road win at California a couple weeks back.
UCLA has a relatively balanced offense, but Adams still takes a higher share of the shots during his minutes than any of his teammates. And those shots go in. Steve Alford's sophomore carries career percentages of 54 and 84 inside the arc and at the line, respectively, and this season he's connected on 37 percent of his 3s. In summary, Adams is a highly efficient 6-5 scoring wing who defends like a grown man. If that description continues to fit, the name recognition will follow.
8. Nik Stauskas, Michigan Wolverines
Fans in Ann Arbor may have seen Stauskas play his last game at Crisler Arena, but just think of the two seasons they've already been given by the remorselessly efficient Canadian scorer. The "not just a shooter anymore" meme with Stauskas was always a little overdrawn in the sense that I'm not sure he ever was just a shooter. Even as a freshman he launched more than 100 2-point attempts and connected half the time.
Stauskas has drawn many more fouls as a sophomore -- a wise course for a career 82 percent shooter at the line -- for an offense that could no longer call upon Trey Burke or Tim Hardaway Jr. (or, for that matter, Mitch McGary). This month, John Beilein's star is shooting 62 percent on his 3s, which, even by the star's standards, is pretty good. Stauskas is not just a shooter, but he sure can shoot. At the moment, I'm not sure there's anything else in Division I ball quite like the deep foreboding experienced by opposing fans when the first 3 falls for Stauskas.
9. Shabazz Napier, Connecticut Huskies
I know the premise of this list is that the NBA doesn't exist. However, if it ever does return from its imaginary hiatus, you may wish to know one thing: Among likely draft prospects, Napier ranks No. 1 in my colleague Kevin Pelton's translations of college statistics into projected NBA production (barely edging out that perennial statistical bully from UCLA, Kyle Anderson). Kevin's translations love Napier's combination of efficiency and sheer volume on offense as a scoring point guard -- as well as his consistent effort and effectiveness on defense.
Last week, I had occasion to compare Napier to former UConn great Kemba Walker, and the upshot was that, yes, Kevin Ollie's star does deserve mention in that same company. As a senior, Napier has transformed himself into an oddly but undeniably good defensive rebounder for a point guard who's listed at 6-1. Eliminating the need for an outlet pass is just one more example of what makes UConn's leader so valuable. Napier does whatever his team requires.
10. Andrew Wiggins, Kansas Jayhawks
Players don't often build their legend in defeat, but Wiggins sure looked dominant in the Jayhawks' 92-86 loss at West Virginia on Saturday. On a day when KU had already locked up an outright Big 12 title and was without the services of Joel Embiid (resting an ailing back), Wiggins scored 41 points on 12-of-18 shooting from the field and a 15-of-19 effort at the line.
At first glance, Wiggins' numbers appear unusual for a 6-8 one-and-done performer. For one thing, he is invisible on the defensive glass, but in a KU rotation that (usually) includes Embiid and Perry Ellis, Wiggins is asked first and foremost to score points. He does so mainly inside the arc -- whether by getting to the rim, drawing fouls or both -- but Wiggins is also a capable perimeter shooter. He is not going to score 41 every time out, but Self's freshman has shown beyond a doubt that he can erupt for a monster game. Jayhawks fans just hope the next monster game is a win.
11. Nick Johnson, Arizona Wildcats
Johnson's effectiveness on offense took a measurable hit when Brandon Ashley was lost for the season, but Sean Miller's junior seems to have weathered that blow and is once again in top form. Over the course of his three seasons in Tucson, Johnson has made the jump from supporting player to featured scorer and is more efficient now than ever.
Meanwhile, on defense Johnson has had ample opportunity to show his versatility this season, as Miller has recently replaced the 6-7 Rondae Hollis-Jefferson in the starting lineup with 6-3 Gabe York. The smaller lineup has at times tasked Johnson with taller and more challenging defensive assignments than he saw when Ashley was healthy. Still, the Wildcats have continued to limit Pac-12 opponents to well under a point per possession. Arizona is about to earn a No. 1 seed, and that doesn't happen without an excellent junior season from Johnson.
12. T.J. Warren, NC State Wolfpack
Earlier this month, Warren scored 41 points in the Wolfpack's 74-67 win at Pittsburgh, and I'm already on the record as viewing that effort as a somewhat "decisive individual intervention in the outcome of a game." Say this for Warren, he's been making decisive interventions on offense all season long. No major conference player not named Doug McDermott accounts for a larger share of his team's shots during his minutes than Warren.
The sophomore's overall offensive rating is lowered by his 30 percent 3-point shooting (and by the fact that he's not exactly VanVleet when it comes to dishing assists), but inside the arc Warren connects on 58 percent of his attempts. NC State's star is also active on the offensive glass, and he owns the highest steal percentage on the roster. Mark Gottfried's team achieved below-average results on both sides of the ball in ACC play this season, but if not for Warren's efforts, things could have been even worse.
13. Joel Embiid, Kansas Jayhawks
Let's start with something not many people start with when talking about Embiid. For an insanely promising yet markedly raw 7-footer, he actually does pretty well (69 percent) at the line. That is one facet I definitely appreciated in Anthony Davis' game back in the day.
That, I suppose, is where the Davis comparisons cease. The first test for any would-be dominant big man is purely existential, and John Calipari's star was able to exist on the floor for long stretches of time. Conversely, Embiid averages six fouls per 40 minutes, and Bill Self chose to rest his star for the last two games of the regular season to address lingering back issues. When he's in the game, Embiid is magnificent -- a dominant rebounder at both ends who also blocks shots. If he can increase his minutes, his place on this list can definitely more closely approximate his projected draft order.
14. Marcus Paige, North Carolina Tar Heels
Paige happens to play point guard, but before anyone offers any paeans to his skills as a gutty floor general or his ability to involve his teammates, let's be clear on one point: His value to North Carolina is primarily that his shots go in. Paige hits 88 percent of his attempts at the line for one of the worst free throw shooting teams in Division I. He also connects on 39 percent of his 3s; the rest of the Tar Heels collectively are shooting 29 percent from beyond the arc.
Lost in the Jabari Jubilation stemming from Duke's 93-81 win over UNC in Durham was the fact that Paige had a really good game in his own right: 24 points on 9-of-14 shooting from the floor (though he did post just two assists against four turnovers). After starting ACC play by scoring 0.85 points per possession in their first three games, the Heels closed strong by recording 1.13 points per trip over their last 15. Paige has been a major factor in that turnaround.
15. Xavier Thames, San Diego State Aztecs
The Aztecs captured the Mountain West title with a 51-48 win at home over New Mexico on Saturday, and without Thames' 23 points, SDSU's trophy case may well have a vacancy today. Put it this way, San Diego State's next leading scorer against the Lobos had eight points.
Thames is a tough defender and easily the best scorer for a team that plays outstanding defense but does not always find it easy to score. (In Mountain West play, SDSU ranked No. 9 out of 11 teams in effective field goal percentage.) He closed the regular season with a flourish, scoring 64 points on 50 percent 2-point shooting over the Aztecs' final three games. Steve Fisher's men have posted a 27-3 record with the combination of a punishing defense and a star player. That alone is the best tribute available to both the defense and the star.
16. Tyler Ennis, Syracuse Orange
Ennis has struggled mightily to get the ball in the basket late in the season (as has teammate C.J. Fair), but his skills as a point guard and defender have been on display even during a shooting slump. His late-season assist-to-turnover ratio is still better than 2-to-1, and lost in the Boeheim Meltdown at Duke was the fact that Ennis recorded four steals in a road game against quite possibly the best offense in the country.
At the end of the day, you're still looking at assist and turnover percentages that can stand alongside those posted by any point guard in the country -- and this point guard is a freshman. All things considered, it's been an excellent debut by Ennis, and who's to say the shooting slump won't end sometime soon?
17. Aaron Gordon, Arizona Wildcats
Somewhere in between 2012-13 and this season, the Arizona defense improved significantly. In fact, it may turn out that the Wildcats have the best D in the nation before it's all said and done. I'm not saying that was Gordon's doing alone. (After all, T.J. McConnell is also new to the team as of 2013-14.) I am saying that the 6-9 freshman has been a rock on a defense that has been the largest factor behind Arizona's 28-3 record.
Gordon's offensive rating is nothing to write home about, thanks to 45 percent shooting at the line (not to mention a continuing if bewildering belief on his part that he is going to turn into Stauskas any day now; Gordon was 0-of-4 from beyond the arc in the Wildcats' 64-57 loss at Oregon on Saturday). But if you're Sean Miller, you'll take a one-and-done-level performer who makes half his 2s and frustrates opposing offenses -- even if he does frustrate you when he's fouled.
18. Julius Randle, Kentucky Wildcats
Up until UK's 84-65 loss at Florida on Saturday, Randle, like his team, was suffering through a pronounced shooting slump. Then again, maybe the freshman's 7-of-11 effort from the field in Gainesville indicates that better results are just around the corner.
Randle is excellent on both the offensive and defensive boards, and he has failed to record a double-double just once in the past eight games. Besides, even when you factor in his late-season struggles from the field, the season totals are still undeniably impressive. When the statistically comparable seasons dredged up from the archives at kenpom.com come from players like Derrick Williams, Blake Griffin and Jared Sullinger, it's safe to say you've had a pretty good freshman campaign.
19. Kyle Anderson, UCLA Bruins
Anderson ranks in the top 40 nationally in both defensive rebound and assist percentages. In the past, players who have combined these two seemingly dissimilar abilities have been either preternaturally skilled big men (a la Greg Monroe and Draymond Green) or natural wings pressed into service as point guards (Evan Turner).
Steve Alford's sophomore is the only member of this fairly impressive club, then, who really seems to be more or less a natural point guard -- albeit a natural point guard who happens to be 6-9 and 230 pounds. His turnovers are still a little too numerous, but Anderson defends, draws fouls and specializes in rare but highly accurate (48 percent) 3-point shooting. Lastly, on a top 25 list that includes the likes of Smith, Smart, VanVleet, Napier, Paige, Thames and Ennis, the point guard with the highest assist percentage of the lot is Anderson. To say he possesses a unique combination of skills is putting it mildly.
20. Bryce Cotton, Providence Friars
Before he played a mere 37 minutes in the Friars' season finale at Creighton, Cotton had sat out a total of one minute over the previous 15 games. Repeat: Ed Cooley's star played 629 out of a possible 630 minutes throughout the balance of January and February and on into March.
Maybe Cooley is onto something. Far from looking fatigued, Cotton has been outstanding. A little like Russ Smith, the senior has transitioned from a combo guard to a scoring point guard. In his new role, Cotton has drawn fouls, hit 3s and distributed the ball for an offense that scored 1.09 points per possession in Big East play. Cotton's performance is a big reason why Providence is in the mix for the program's first NCAA tournament bid in 10 years.
21. Delon Wright, Utah Utes
Take one step forward if you saw this coming in October. Wright is setting hearts aflutter in analytic circles to an extent previously unimaginable from a nominal 2-guard who is hitting just 25 percent of his 3s. You're not going to build your perimeter-oriented offense around Wright, but if you already have an Ethan Wragge-type in your rotation, here's what the junior college transfer can do for you ...
Wright attacks the basket relentlessly, assiduously and most of all effectively. Per hoop-math.com, no less than 61 percent of the junior's shot attempts have been recorded at the rim. Coming from Embiid that number would be understandable. Coming from a 6-5 shooting guard, it's unheard of. And Wright is converting 64 percent of his 2-pointers while posting a steal percentage that ranks in the top 40 nationally. That sums to a profile that far exceeds Wright's publicity to date. Remember the name.
22. Jordan McRae, Tennessee Volunteers
We take time out from mocking the entire non-Florida SEC to note that McRae is having one outstanding season. In conference play, Tennessee had easily the SEC's best offense outside of Gainesville, and McRae accounts for about as many shots in the Volunteers offense as Jabari Parker does in Durham.
McRae draws as many fouls and blocks the same percentage of shots as Jarnell Stokes, and he assists on as many baskets as Antonio Barton. He is the Vols' most accurate perimeter threat (38 percent), and he is Cuonzo Martin's best option at the line late in a tight game (80 percent). Doubt the bottom 13 teams in the SEC if you wish, but there's no question that McRae has been tremendous.
23. JayVaughn Pinkston, Villanova Wildcats
I don't know if the credit goes to Pinkston or coach Jay Wright (or both), but the Villanova star hasn't attempted a 3 in the past two weeks. That's excellent news for Wildcats fans, because Pinkston hasn't made one of those attempts in over a month. His 3-point tries have become more infrequent in each succeeding season, and it's no accident that Pinkston's effectiveness has increased markedly over that same span.
Pinkston is simply "the man" inside the arc, converting 56 percent of his 2-point attempts and drawing six fouls per 40 minutes. He has lowered his foul and turnover rates as a junior -- no small matter on a team that until this season suffered from chronically high foul and turnover rates. Pinkston's development has both matched and fueled that of a Villanova team that won an outright Big East title after being unranked in the preseason.
24. Casey Prather, Florida Gators
Coming into 2013-14, the book on the Gators was that someone was going to have to step up and become a reliable scoring option alongside Patric Young. Now, with a perfect 18-0 SEC season in the books, it's safe to say that pretty much the entire team stepped up.
I'll name three Gators in particular who elevated their games. Michael Frazier doubled his number of attempts from beyond the arc while remaining scarily accurate from out there. Scottie Wilbekin lowered his turnover rate and became both a more frequent and more accurate (38 percent) 3-point shooter while transitioning from a pure pass-first point guard to a borderline scoring point.
And top-25 honoree Prather pulled off a complete metamorphosis, going from the backup third option on offense who came off the bench as a junior to the featured scorer in the starting lineup as a senior. Prather is a wing who gets to the tin like a 5, and when you convert 75 percent of your attempts at the rim, that's going to give your offense a boost. The Gators recorded 1.14 points per possession against the SEC, and Prather is Billy Donovan's leading scorer. I think he stepped up.
25. Tyler Haws, Brigham Young Cougars
It's been hard for BYU or any individual Cougar to garner a lot of attention after Dave Rose's team started the season 8-7 overall and 0-2 in West Coast play. But over their last 16 regular-season games, the men from Provo scored 1.18 points per possession, with Haws carrying a heavier load on offense than any Cougar since Jimmer Fredette.
The offensive rebounding of Eric Mika and Nate Austin definitely played a part in BYU's late-season push, but credit Haws with giving those guys progressively fewer misses to grab. Over the past 10 games, the junior has made 52 percent of his 2s, and for the season the 87 percent free throw shooter has drawn six fouls per 40 minutes. The Cougars were left for dead in January, but with a big assist from Haws, they may yet make the NCAA tournament.
Now that the regular season has been in the books for a few hours, I decided it's high time that I update my rankings of the top 25 players in Division I. The premise of my list is simple:
The NBA doesn't exist. If we were evaluating these players purely on college production and not on anticipated professional potential, who would rise to the top as the best performers in Division I?
To find that answer, I've gone back to a number of my preferred information sources, including but not limited to:
• My observations based on watching hundreds of hours of college hoops (I like my job)
• The excellent individual player stats generated by Ken Pomeroy at kenpom.com
• Data on play-by-play performance collected by Jeff Haley and available at hoop-math.com
• Translations that project NBA performance based on college metrics, compiled by Insider colleague Kevin Pelton
Here are my choices for the 25 best players in the college game.
(Who'd I miss? Let me know in the comments and on Twitter -- @JohnGasaway.)
Note: Statistics through games of March 8.
1. Doug McDermott, Creighton Bluejays
It's been a while since we've seen a scorer from the top third of Division I combine accuracy and volume the way McDermott has in 2013-14. The first place to check is 2010-11, when both Arizona's Derrick Williams and BYU's Jimmer Fredette had seasons for the ages. Turns out Williams was even more accurate than McDermott from the field and at the line (as measured by true shooting percentage), but the Wildcats star carried a much smaller workload on offense. Fredette shouldered a similar load but was less accurate.
No, to find a worthy comparison for McDermott, we may have to expand our search, whether to include mid-major sensations (Damian Lillard in 2011-12? Stephen Curry in 2007-08?) or to encompass major conference stars from the far fringes of trusty metric history (Christian Laettner in 1991-92?).
You get the point: McDermott has been extraordinary, posting shooting percentages of 56, 45 and 87 on 2s, 3s and free throws, respectively, while recording 38 percent of the Creighton attempts that occur while he's on the floor.
That being said, the true measure of McDermott's individual excellence is what Creighton has been able to accomplish as a team on offense. (Defense, granted, is another matter.) The Bluejays have ranked in the top 10 nationally in offensive efficiency for the balance of the past two seasons. With all due respect to Ethan Wragge's shot-making or Greg McDermott's play calling, in a year or two we may look back on this multiseason run of high efficiency and reflect that No. 3 in the Creighton uniform had something to do with that. Doug McDermott has been quite simply the best player in Division I this season.
2. Jabari Parker, Duke Blue Devils
Mike Krzyzewski has handed the entirety of the Duke offense over to Parker to an extent that we haven't seen in Durham since the days of J.J. Redick. Keep in mind that Redick had to work up to that point over the course of four seasons. Parker, conversely, was given the keys to the Blue Devils offense at the tender age of 18. (He will turn 19 on Saturday.) Given that Duke has quite possibly the best offense in the country -- one that has scored 1.19 points per possession in ACC play -- I put it to you that the freshman must be doing something right.
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For starters, Parker is a 6-foot-8 power forward who forces opponents to guard him everywhere on the floor. His perimeter range -- hitting 37 percent of his 3s -- is underrated simply because the Blue Devils have a wealth of long-range options. But there's no mistaking Parker's production inside the arc, as he draws six fouls per 40 minutes and makes better than half of his 2s. He is also the best defensive rebounder on the Blue Devils roster, pulling down 24 percent of opponents' misses during his minutes.
If Parker is serious about possibly returning for his sophomore season, he will be the consensus preseason national player of the year. Then again, if he enters the draft, as seems more likely, he can expect to be one of the first three or four players selected. These are good choices to have five days shy of your 19th birthday.
3. Russ Smith, Louisville Cardinals
Established stars who switch positions are rare. Ones who switch and thrive in their new roles are rarer still. Smith has done just that, making the transition from shoot-first combo guard to shoot-first point guard and doing so while continuing his excellent run of harassing defense.
Smith is enjoying far and away the most accurate season of his career from the field (though his shooting at the line, oddly, has dipped from 80 to 70 percent), and his point guard skills have proved to be outstanding. In fact, Smith's rate stats for assists and turnovers are similar to what Shabazz Napier has posted.
I don't suppose he's a true point guard, whatever that is, but he has been an outstanding one for Rick Pitino this season.
4. Marcus Smart, Oklahoma State Cowboys
In light of his career 30 percent 3-point shooting, it's fair to say Smart can't be your team's primary perimeter threat. But outside of that one issue, the Cowboys star has been pretty much as amazing with his on-court performance as everyone says he is (no mean feat).
In his sophomore season, Smart has improved his performance significantly as a scoring point guard under both the "scoring" and "point guard" headings. Even as he's taken on a heavier workload in the OSU offense, he has raised his 2-point accuracy by more than 5 percentage points. Smart's rate stats for assists and turnovers have both headed in the right directions (up and down, respectively), and he draws nearly seven fouls per 40 minutes. And he is still a force of nature on defense. Since coming back from his three-game suspension, Smart has recorded 22 steals in the 289 possessions he's been on the floor.
Whether he's sitting out as a result of his shove of a Texas Tech fan, serially flopping or squabbling with a blogger, the 2013-14 national preseason player of the year has never lacked for coverage. That's what you get with Smart, granted, but we shouldn't let all the headlines obscure an important fact: The kid can play.
5. Fred VanVleet, Wichita State Shockers
VanVleet has recorded what may justly be termed a near-perfect season for a pass-first point guard. Coaches can put a frame around this season, point to it and say simply, "Do what VanVleet did."
Gregg Marshall's 5-11 floor general hasn't committed more than two turnovers in a game in over a month. VanVleet can step forward as a scorer if necessary -- in one three-game stretch in February he put up 55 points -- but in a rotation that came close to sweeping the first-team All-Missouri Valley balloting, that usually isn't necessary. VanVleet is also a highly disruptive defender. When Evansville looked ready to challenge the Shockers in the first half of an MVC tournament quarterfinal Friday, WSU's sophomore quickly showed Cinderella the door with steals on back-to-back possessions.
VanVleet was lightly recruited as a prospect in Rockford, Ill., and so he chose to sign early with Marshall and venture 677 miles away to Wichita. In so doing, he left behind a good number of nearby Big Ten head coaches who now kick themselves with regularity.
6. Sean Kilpatrick, Cincinnati Bearcats
With Kilpatrick we encounter a new form of excellence on this list. The top four players in these rankings are the featured scorers for very good or even great offenses. By the same token, player No. 5 is the pass-first floor general for such an offense. But -- and I mean this as a compliment -- Kilpatrick happens to be the featured scorer for a thoroughly mediocre offense, which is a big part of why he's so great.
Kilpatrick takes the floor every game against defenses that, with all due respect to the underrated Justin Jackson, aren't and need not be concerned with much beyond stopping Kilpatrick. Yet somehow Mick Cronin's star has put together a season that can justly stand on its own individual merits alongside those recorded by the McDermotts and Parkers in this discussion. (Just imagine what we might have seen from Kilpatrick in 2013-14 if he had played in an offense with multiple scoring threats. Unbelievable.)
Sometimes a star comprises more or less the entirety of opponents' scouting reports. To see such a star refuse to commit turnovers while shouldering the scoring burden, drawing six fouls a game and shooting 84 percent at the line gives new meaning to the phrase "carrying the offense." Forget mock drafts. Give me Kilpatrick and VanVleet and you can pick the other three. I'll win some games.
7. Jordan Adams, UCLA Bruins
Adams' impact on college basketball games has far exceeded his name recognition or, to this point, his draft buzz. His ostentatiously high steal percentage (even higher than Smart's) is partly a function of the time he was mean to poor, helpless Sacramento State in November, but it's also partly legitimate; Adams notched five steals in the Bruins' impressive 86-66 road win at California a couple weeks back.
UCLA has a relatively balanced offense, but Adams still takes a higher share of the shots during his minutes than any of his teammates. And those shots go in. Steve Alford's sophomore carries career percentages of 54 and 84 inside the arc and at the line, respectively, and this season he's connected on 37 percent of his 3s. In summary, Adams is a highly efficient 6-5 scoring wing who defends like a grown man. If that description continues to fit, the name recognition will follow.
8. Nik Stauskas, Michigan Wolverines
Fans in Ann Arbor may have seen Stauskas play his last game at Crisler Arena, but just think of the two seasons they've already been given by the remorselessly efficient Canadian scorer. The "not just a shooter anymore" meme with Stauskas was always a little overdrawn in the sense that I'm not sure he ever was just a shooter. Even as a freshman he launched more than 100 2-point attempts and connected half the time.
Stauskas has drawn many more fouls as a sophomore -- a wise course for a career 82 percent shooter at the line -- for an offense that could no longer call upon Trey Burke or Tim Hardaway Jr. (or, for that matter, Mitch McGary). This month, John Beilein's star is shooting 62 percent on his 3s, which, even by the star's standards, is pretty good. Stauskas is not just a shooter, but he sure can shoot. At the moment, I'm not sure there's anything else in Division I ball quite like the deep foreboding experienced by opposing fans when the first 3 falls for Stauskas.
9. Shabazz Napier, Connecticut Huskies
I know the premise of this list is that the NBA doesn't exist. However, if it ever does return from its imaginary hiatus, you may wish to know one thing: Among likely draft prospects, Napier ranks No. 1 in my colleague Kevin Pelton's translations of college statistics into projected NBA production (barely edging out that perennial statistical bully from UCLA, Kyle Anderson). Kevin's translations love Napier's combination of efficiency and sheer volume on offense as a scoring point guard -- as well as his consistent effort and effectiveness on defense.
Last week, I had occasion to compare Napier to former UConn great Kemba Walker, and the upshot was that, yes, Kevin Ollie's star does deserve mention in that same company. As a senior, Napier has transformed himself into an oddly but undeniably good defensive rebounder for a point guard who's listed at 6-1. Eliminating the need for an outlet pass is just one more example of what makes UConn's leader so valuable. Napier does whatever his team requires.
10. Andrew Wiggins, Kansas Jayhawks
Players don't often build their legend in defeat, but Wiggins sure looked dominant in the Jayhawks' 92-86 loss at West Virginia on Saturday. On a day when KU had already locked up an outright Big 12 title and was without the services of Joel Embiid (resting an ailing back), Wiggins scored 41 points on 12-of-18 shooting from the field and a 15-of-19 effort at the line.
At first glance, Wiggins' numbers appear unusual for a 6-8 one-and-done performer. For one thing, he is invisible on the defensive glass, but in a KU rotation that (usually) includes Embiid and Perry Ellis, Wiggins is asked first and foremost to score points. He does so mainly inside the arc -- whether by getting to the rim, drawing fouls or both -- but Wiggins is also a capable perimeter shooter. He is not going to score 41 every time out, but Self's freshman has shown beyond a doubt that he can erupt for a monster game. Jayhawks fans just hope the next monster game is a win.
11. Nick Johnson, Arizona Wildcats
Johnson's effectiveness on offense took a measurable hit when Brandon Ashley was lost for the season, but Sean Miller's junior seems to have weathered that blow and is once again in top form. Over the course of his three seasons in Tucson, Johnson has made the jump from supporting player to featured scorer and is more efficient now than ever.
Meanwhile, on defense Johnson has had ample opportunity to show his versatility this season, as Miller has recently replaced the 6-7 Rondae Hollis-Jefferson in the starting lineup with 6-3 Gabe York. The smaller lineup has at times tasked Johnson with taller and more challenging defensive assignments than he saw when Ashley was healthy. Still, the Wildcats have continued to limit Pac-12 opponents to well under a point per possession. Arizona is about to earn a No. 1 seed, and that doesn't happen without an excellent junior season from Johnson.
12. T.J. Warren, NC State Wolfpack
Earlier this month, Warren scored 41 points in the Wolfpack's 74-67 win at Pittsburgh, and I'm already on the record as viewing that effort as a somewhat "decisive individual intervention in the outcome of a game." Say this for Warren, he's been making decisive interventions on offense all season long. No major conference player not named Doug McDermott accounts for a larger share of his team's shots during his minutes than Warren.
The sophomore's overall offensive rating is lowered by his 30 percent 3-point shooting (and by the fact that he's not exactly VanVleet when it comes to dishing assists), but inside the arc Warren connects on 58 percent of his attempts. NC State's star is also active on the offensive glass, and he owns the highest steal percentage on the roster. Mark Gottfried's team achieved below-average results on both sides of the ball in ACC play this season, but if not for Warren's efforts, things could have been even worse.
13. Joel Embiid, Kansas Jayhawks
Let's start with something not many people start with when talking about Embiid. For an insanely promising yet markedly raw 7-footer, he actually does pretty well (69 percent) at the line. That is one facet I definitely appreciated in Anthony Davis' game back in the day.
That, I suppose, is where the Davis comparisons cease. The first test for any would-be dominant big man is purely existential, and John Calipari's star was able to exist on the floor for long stretches of time. Conversely, Embiid averages six fouls per 40 minutes, and Bill Self chose to rest his star for the last two games of the regular season to address lingering back issues. When he's in the game, Embiid is magnificent -- a dominant rebounder at both ends who also blocks shots. If he can increase his minutes, his place on this list can definitely more closely approximate his projected draft order.
14. Marcus Paige, North Carolina Tar Heels
Paige happens to play point guard, but before anyone offers any paeans to his skills as a gutty floor general or his ability to involve his teammates, let's be clear on one point: His value to North Carolina is primarily that his shots go in. Paige hits 88 percent of his attempts at the line for one of the worst free throw shooting teams in Division I. He also connects on 39 percent of his 3s; the rest of the Tar Heels collectively are shooting 29 percent from beyond the arc.
Lost in the Jabari Jubilation stemming from Duke's 93-81 win over UNC in Durham was the fact that Paige had a really good game in his own right: 24 points on 9-of-14 shooting from the floor (though he did post just two assists against four turnovers). After starting ACC play by scoring 0.85 points per possession in their first three games, the Heels closed strong by recording 1.13 points per trip over their last 15. Paige has been a major factor in that turnaround.
15. Xavier Thames, San Diego State Aztecs
The Aztecs captured the Mountain West title with a 51-48 win at home over New Mexico on Saturday, and without Thames' 23 points, SDSU's trophy case may well have a vacancy today. Put it this way, San Diego State's next leading scorer against the Lobos had eight points.
Thames is a tough defender and easily the best scorer for a team that plays outstanding defense but does not always find it easy to score. (In Mountain West play, SDSU ranked No. 9 out of 11 teams in effective field goal percentage.) He closed the regular season with a flourish, scoring 64 points on 50 percent 2-point shooting over the Aztecs' final three games. Steve Fisher's men have posted a 27-3 record with the combination of a punishing defense and a star player. That alone is the best tribute available to both the defense and the star.
16. Tyler Ennis, Syracuse Orange
Ennis has struggled mightily to get the ball in the basket late in the season (as has teammate C.J. Fair), but his skills as a point guard and defender have been on display even during a shooting slump. His late-season assist-to-turnover ratio is still better than 2-to-1, and lost in the Boeheim Meltdown at Duke was the fact that Ennis recorded four steals in a road game against quite possibly the best offense in the country.
At the end of the day, you're still looking at assist and turnover percentages that can stand alongside those posted by any point guard in the country -- and this point guard is a freshman. All things considered, it's been an excellent debut by Ennis, and who's to say the shooting slump won't end sometime soon?
17. Aaron Gordon, Arizona Wildcats
Somewhere in between 2012-13 and this season, the Arizona defense improved significantly. In fact, it may turn out that the Wildcats have the best D in the nation before it's all said and done. I'm not saying that was Gordon's doing alone. (After all, T.J. McConnell is also new to the team as of 2013-14.) I am saying that the 6-9 freshman has been a rock on a defense that has been the largest factor behind Arizona's 28-3 record.
Gordon's offensive rating is nothing to write home about, thanks to 45 percent shooting at the line (not to mention a continuing if bewildering belief on his part that he is going to turn into Stauskas any day now; Gordon was 0-of-4 from beyond the arc in the Wildcats' 64-57 loss at Oregon on Saturday). But if you're Sean Miller, you'll take a one-and-done-level performer who makes half his 2s and frustrates opposing offenses -- even if he does frustrate you when he's fouled.
18. Julius Randle, Kentucky Wildcats
Up until UK's 84-65 loss at Florida on Saturday, Randle, like his team, was suffering through a pronounced shooting slump. Then again, maybe the freshman's 7-of-11 effort from the field in Gainesville indicates that better results are just around the corner.
Randle is excellent on both the offensive and defensive boards, and he has failed to record a double-double just once in the past eight games. Besides, even when you factor in his late-season struggles from the field, the season totals are still undeniably impressive. When the statistically comparable seasons dredged up from the archives at kenpom.com come from players like Derrick Williams, Blake Griffin and Jared Sullinger, it's safe to say you've had a pretty good freshman campaign.
19. Kyle Anderson, UCLA Bruins
Anderson ranks in the top 40 nationally in both defensive rebound and assist percentages. In the past, players who have combined these two seemingly dissimilar abilities have been either preternaturally skilled big men (a la Greg Monroe and Draymond Green) or natural wings pressed into service as point guards (Evan Turner).
Steve Alford's sophomore is the only member of this fairly impressive club, then, who really seems to be more or less a natural point guard -- albeit a natural point guard who happens to be 6-9 and 230 pounds. His turnovers are still a little too numerous, but Anderson defends, draws fouls and specializes in rare but highly accurate (48 percent) 3-point shooting. Lastly, on a top 25 list that includes the likes of Smith, Smart, VanVleet, Napier, Paige, Thames and Ennis, the point guard with the highest assist percentage of the lot is Anderson. To say he possesses a unique combination of skills is putting it mildly.
20. Bryce Cotton, Providence Friars
Before he played a mere 37 minutes in the Friars' season finale at Creighton, Cotton had sat out a total of one minute over the previous 15 games. Repeat: Ed Cooley's star played 629 out of a possible 630 minutes throughout the balance of January and February and on into March.
Maybe Cooley is onto something. Far from looking fatigued, Cotton has been outstanding. A little like Russ Smith, the senior has transitioned from a combo guard to a scoring point guard. In his new role, Cotton has drawn fouls, hit 3s and distributed the ball for an offense that scored 1.09 points per possession in Big East play. Cotton's performance is a big reason why Providence is in the mix for the program's first NCAA tournament bid in 10 years.
21. Delon Wright, Utah Utes
Take one step forward if you saw this coming in October. Wright is setting hearts aflutter in analytic circles to an extent previously unimaginable from a nominal 2-guard who is hitting just 25 percent of his 3s. You're not going to build your perimeter-oriented offense around Wright, but if you already have an Ethan Wragge-type in your rotation, here's what the junior college transfer can do for you ...
Wright attacks the basket relentlessly, assiduously and most of all effectively. Per hoop-math.com, no less than 61 percent of the junior's shot attempts have been recorded at the rim. Coming from Embiid that number would be understandable. Coming from a 6-5 shooting guard, it's unheard of. And Wright is converting 64 percent of his 2-pointers while posting a steal percentage that ranks in the top 40 nationally. That sums to a profile that far exceeds Wright's publicity to date. Remember the name.
22. Jordan McRae, Tennessee Volunteers
We take time out from mocking the entire non-Florida SEC to note that McRae is having one outstanding season. In conference play, Tennessee had easily the SEC's best offense outside of Gainesville, and McRae accounts for about as many shots in the Volunteers offense as Jabari Parker does in Durham.
McRae draws as many fouls and blocks the same percentage of shots as Jarnell Stokes, and he assists on as many baskets as Antonio Barton. He is the Vols' most accurate perimeter threat (38 percent), and he is Cuonzo Martin's best option at the line late in a tight game (80 percent). Doubt the bottom 13 teams in the SEC if you wish, but there's no question that McRae has been tremendous.
23. JayVaughn Pinkston, Villanova Wildcats
I don't know if the credit goes to Pinkston or coach Jay Wright (or both), but the Villanova star hasn't attempted a 3 in the past two weeks. That's excellent news for Wildcats fans, because Pinkston hasn't made one of those attempts in over a month. His 3-point tries have become more infrequent in each succeeding season, and it's no accident that Pinkston's effectiveness has increased markedly over that same span.
Pinkston is simply "the man" inside the arc, converting 56 percent of his 2-point attempts and drawing six fouls per 40 minutes. He has lowered his foul and turnover rates as a junior -- no small matter on a team that until this season suffered from chronically high foul and turnover rates. Pinkston's development has both matched and fueled that of a Villanova team that won an outright Big East title after being unranked in the preseason.
24. Casey Prather, Florida Gators
Coming into 2013-14, the book on the Gators was that someone was going to have to step up and become a reliable scoring option alongside Patric Young. Now, with a perfect 18-0 SEC season in the books, it's safe to say that pretty much the entire team stepped up.
I'll name three Gators in particular who elevated their games. Michael Frazier doubled his number of attempts from beyond the arc while remaining scarily accurate from out there. Scottie Wilbekin lowered his turnover rate and became both a more frequent and more accurate (38 percent) 3-point shooter while transitioning from a pure pass-first point guard to a borderline scoring point.
And top-25 honoree Prather pulled off a complete metamorphosis, going from the backup third option on offense who came off the bench as a junior to the featured scorer in the starting lineup as a senior. Prather is a wing who gets to the tin like a 5, and when you convert 75 percent of your attempts at the rim, that's going to give your offense a boost. The Gators recorded 1.14 points per possession against the SEC, and Prather is Billy Donovan's leading scorer. I think he stepped up.
25. Tyler Haws, Brigham Young Cougars
It's been hard for BYU or any individual Cougar to garner a lot of attention after Dave Rose's team started the season 8-7 overall and 0-2 in West Coast play. But over their last 16 regular-season games, the men from Provo scored 1.18 points per possession, with Haws carrying a heavier load on offense than any Cougar since Jimmer Fredette.
The offensive rebounding of Eric Mika and Nate Austin definitely played a part in BYU's late-season push, but credit Haws with giving those guys progressively fewer misses to grab. Over the past 10 games, the junior has made 52 percent of his 2s, and for the season the 87 percent free throw shooter has drawn six fouls per 40 minutes. The Cougars were left for dead in January, but with a big assist from Haws, they may yet make the NCAA tournament.
