2014 AL Central Preview
Joe Peta
Sometimes, but not frequently, a team is constructed in such a way that outside of completely unexpected skill deterioration or catastrophic injuries, a team looks destined to win far more than 90 games to the point that winning fewer than 90 games becomes a left-sided tail result on a distribution curve. Early-century Yankees teams (and by early century, I mean this one; think Billy Wagner, not Honus Wagner) that were built to score 900 runs are a good example as was the 2011 Phillies team anchored by perhaps the best run-suppression staff we’ve seen in decades. Far more frequently however, for the 90+ win outcome to occur a lot has to go right, and sometimes that confluence of events falls under the heading of non-repeatable.
To that end, let’s take a look at the 93-win Detroit Tigers of 2013. The Tigers outscored their opponents by 170 runs, and to be honest, they were even a bit better than that. Were they to post exactly the same offensive and defensive results as last year, the Tigers should really expect to outscore their opponents by 200 runs and win 100 games. (In other words, they had negative cluster luck.) But can they expect to post those same results?
Roster changes make that doubtful, but before we even address that point, consider a couple of other factors. One of the most underrated aspects of success in any year is the health of a team’s starting rotation. Every year there is one team (and usually only one) whose five-man rotation stays intact the entire season. Generally, that team has a very good year, and assuming the runs allowed results are in line with the composite skills of the rotation, no one questions the sustainability of the results. On a rate-basis that’s true, but as a counting measure, it’s remarkably unsustainable.
The Tigers got 156 starts from, by far, the best rotation in baseball last year; of the six starts not taken by their starting five, one was a throw-away late-season game and another was during the second game of a doubleheader when the staff needed to be expanded to six pitchers. No other team in baseball came close to matching the Tigers starting five in terms of starts (156) or innings pitched (995.) And oh! what productive innings pitched they were as Verlander, Scherzer, Sanchez, Fister, and Porcello allowed just 401 total runs during their outings. Only the otherworldly Phillies staff of 2011 (360 total runs allowed in 1,064 innings pitched) has been better and only the 2010 Giants staff (in a far different home-field, run-scoring environment) have come close to matching the Tigers.
It’s not just that that level of excellence can’t reasonably to expected to be improved upon, it’s that it’s even less reasonable to expect that level of durability – and that’s a huge potential drop-off. Sixth, seventh, eighth etc. starters are usually the very definition of replacement-level players. They’re usually either minimum-salary middle relievers or triple-A ceiling guys. For some teams, there’s not a lot of difference between their fifth starter and replacement level but when you have a staff like the 2013 Tigers who only gave up slightly more than 3.5 runs every nine innings, it’s a drop-off of at least one run a game. Getting a still-above average 140 starts from their starting rotation could still result in a notable bump in runs allowed.
Then there are roster changes, and the Tigers jettisoned the extremely effective Doug Fister (3.68 ERA). His starts will be taken by Drew Smyly, a promising young pitcher, to be sure, but one relegated to the reliever’s LOOGY role last season. Even young and promising, no one should expect him to match Fister’s 2013 output.
On the run scoring front, roster changes threaten to gut a healthy portion of the nearly 800 runs the Tigers scored last year. In a highly notable off-season trade, first baseman Prince Fielder was swapped for the Rangers second baseman Ian Kinsler. That threatens to cost the Tigers offensive output at two positions. Having Kinsler under cheaper team control for a few seasons might have been a defensible move and improved the team in the long run, but for the 2014 outlook we’re concerned with marginal changes from the year before. Kinsler, a lifetime .273/.359/.474 hitter in the AL’s best hitting park, will replace Omar Infante’s production at second base. Infante hit .318/.345/.450, numbers which look awfully similar to Kinsler’s lifetime mark. Once you normalize for the home field park factor and consider that Kinsler has been in decline since 2011, at best, the Tigers can expect a year-over-year wash in offensive production from second base.
There will be no wash offensively replacing Fielder with third baseman Nick Castellanos while Miguel Cabrera moves to first base, even with Fielder coming off the least productive year of his career. Finally there is the curious case of shortstop production – on both sides of the ledger. Jhonny Peralta (.303/.358/.457) gave the Tigers superior offensive output for 2/3 of the season before his PED-related suspension. Based on his full minor league resume, there is no way Jose Iglesias can ever hope to replicate that hitting line over the course of a full campaign. Tigers fans will tell you they don’t care because, of course, Igelsias is a far superior fielder. That view is plain to anyone who watches his super-smooth command of the area between second and third base. And yet – here we are back in the ‘your eyes lie’ territory – can he actually improve on Peralta’s output in the field last year? Your eyes say yes and every Defensive Runs Saved projection say so, but I disagree.
Here’s why: All any fielder can do to prevent runs is turn batted balls into outs via an assist or putout and for shortstops, obviously, assists are the most important part of the equation. Here’s a look at the defensive production of Detroit’s shortstops last year:
IP Assists A per 9 IP
Peralta 936 294 2.83
Iglesias 332 103 2.79
Santiago 193 49 2.28
Look at that – Jhonny Peralta got to more ground balls per inning played than Jose Iglesias. Remember, all of the things which can make assists-per-inning tough to compare (strikeout rate of pitching staff, quality of other defenders, number of right-handed batters faced, stadium differences, etc) are held constant here. I am not for one second saying Peralta is as talented as Iglesias in the field; I’m positively saying I think Iglesias will have a hard time improving on Peralta’s 2013 figures which means the supposed defensive gains Iglesias provides to offset the offensive fallout, comparing 2013 to 2014, look specious to me.
Coming back to the theme that opened this piece, expecting to win more than 90 games in a season usually requires a whole bunch of things to go right and while I think the Tigers are headed back to the postseason donning their fourth straight division crown, I don’t think it’s going to be as easy as everyone expects.
Owing to less division strength than the Rays, Athletics, Red Sox, Rangers, etc. face, the Tigers have been installed as the AL favorite to go to the World Series and prohibitive favorites to win the AL Central. I don’t think it’s going to be that easy this year and I’ll continue my zig-zag tendencies with Detroit since I started publishing these previews before the 2012 season: Under in 2012, over in 2013, and for this year, under the posted win total of 90 ½.
(This was written before it was disclosed Iglesias will miss time, possibly a significant amount, with leg injuries. You can probably comfortably lop another win off this projection.)
Still, this isn’t the aforementioned Orioles. This year’s starting rotation looks arguably stronger than the core that left Spring Training last year, even with the loss of a very rejuvenated Ubaldo Jimenez. Danny Salazar is going way too late in the fantasy drafts I’ve witnessed and while the loss of Jimenez is notable, the departures of Scott Kazmir and Chris Perez may be additions by subtraction despite their serviceable performances in 2013.
At a market of 82 wins, the Indians are a candidate as an Over for the final Opening Day releases.
Joe Peta
2014 AL Central Preview
To win 90 games in a season, you should expect to outscore your opponents by roughly 100 runs. Sure, there are exceptions, and while generally rare they can also be very notable. Namely, the 2012 Baltimore Orioles won 93 games while scoring just 7 more runs than their opponents. Still, if you expect (and really, since these previews are always viewed through the lens of Las Vegas expectations, it’s the right viewpoint for this piece) to win 90 games you must have a plan in place where you will outscore your opponents by triple digits over the course of 162 games.Sometimes, but not frequently, a team is constructed in such a way that outside of completely unexpected skill deterioration or catastrophic injuries, a team looks destined to win far more than 90 games to the point that winning fewer than 90 games becomes a left-sided tail result on a distribution curve. Early-century Yankees teams (and by early century, I mean this one; think Billy Wagner, not Honus Wagner) that were built to score 900 runs are a good example as was the 2011 Phillies team anchored by perhaps the best run-suppression staff we’ve seen in decades. Far more frequently however, for the 90+ win outcome to occur a lot has to go right, and sometimes that confluence of events falls under the heading of non-repeatable.
To that end, let’s take a look at the 93-win Detroit Tigers of 2013. The Tigers outscored their opponents by 170 runs, and to be honest, they were even a bit better than that. Were they to post exactly the same offensive and defensive results as last year, the Tigers should really expect to outscore their opponents by 200 runs and win 100 games. (In other words, they had negative cluster luck.) But can they expect to post those same results?
Roster changes make that doubtful, but before we even address that point, consider a couple of other factors. One of the most underrated aspects of success in any year is the health of a team’s starting rotation. Every year there is one team (and usually only one) whose five-man rotation stays intact the entire season. Generally, that team has a very good year, and assuming the runs allowed results are in line with the composite skills of the rotation, no one questions the sustainability of the results. On a rate-basis that’s true, but as a counting measure, it’s remarkably unsustainable.
The Tigers got 156 starts from, by far, the best rotation in baseball last year; of the six starts not taken by their starting five, one was a throw-away late-season game and another was during the second game of a doubleheader when the staff needed to be expanded to six pitchers. No other team in baseball came close to matching the Tigers starting five in terms of starts (156) or innings pitched (995.) And oh! what productive innings pitched they were as Verlander, Scherzer, Sanchez, Fister, and Porcello allowed just 401 total runs during their outings. Only the otherworldly Phillies staff of 2011 (360 total runs allowed in 1,064 innings pitched) has been better and only the 2010 Giants staff (in a far different home-field, run-scoring environment) have come close to matching the Tigers.
It’s not just that that level of excellence can’t reasonably to expected to be improved upon, it’s that it’s even less reasonable to expect that level of durability – and that’s a huge potential drop-off. Sixth, seventh, eighth etc. starters are usually the very definition of replacement-level players. They’re usually either minimum-salary middle relievers or triple-A ceiling guys. For some teams, there’s not a lot of difference between their fifth starter and replacement level but when you have a staff like the 2013 Tigers who only gave up slightly more than 3.5 runs every nine innings, it’s a drop-off of at least one run a game. Getting a still-above average 140 starts from their starting rotation could still result in a notable bump in runs allowed.
Then there are roster changes, and the Tigers jettisoned the extremely effective Doug Fister (3.68 ERA). His starts will be taken by Drew Smyly, a promising young pitcher, to be sure, but one relegated to the reliever’s LOOGY role last season. Even young and promising, no one should expect him to match Fister’s 2013 output.
On the run scoring front, roster changes threaten to gut a healthy portion of the nearly 800 runs the Tigers scored last year. In a highly notable off-season trade, first baseman Prince Fielder was swapped for the Rangers second baseman Ian Kinsler. That threatens to cost the Tigers offensive output at two positions. Having Kinsler under cheaper team control for a few seasons might have been a defensible move and improved the team in the long run, but for the 2014 outlook we’re concerned with marginal changes from the year before. Kinsler, a lifetime .273/.359/.474 hitter in the AL’s best hitting park, will replace Omar Infante’s production at second base. Infante hit .318/.345/.450, numbers which look awfully similar to Kinsler’s lifetime mark. Once you normalize for the home field park factor and consider that Kinsler has been in decline since 2011, at best, the Tigers can expect a year-over-year wash in offensive production from second base.
There will be no wash offensively replacing Fielder with third baseman Nick Castellanos while Miguel Cabrera moves to first base, even with Fielder coming off the least productive year of his career. Finally there is the curious case of shortstop production – on both sides of the ledger. Jhonny Peralta (.303/.358/.457) gave the Tigers superior offensive output for 2/3 of the season before his PED-related suspension. Based on his full minor league resume, there is no way Jose Iglesias can ever hope to replicate that hitting line over the course of a full campaign. Tigers fans will tell you they don’t care because, of course, Igelsias is a far superior fielder. That view is plain to anyone who watches his super-smooth command of the area between second and third base. And yet – here we are back in the ‘your eyes lie’ territory – can he actually improve on Peralta’s output in the field last year? Your eyes say yes and every Defensive Runs Saved projection say so, but I disagree.
Here’s why: All any fielder can do to prevent runs is turn batted balls into outs via an assist or putout and for shortstops, obviously, assists are the most important part of the equation. Here’s a look at the defensive production of Detroit’s shortstops last year:
IP Assists A per 9 IP
Peralta 936 294 2.83
Iglesias 332 103 2.79
Santiago 193 49 2.28
Look at that – Jhonny Peralta got to more ground balls per inning played than Jose Iglesias. Remember, all of the things which can make assists-per-inning tough to compare (strikeout rate of pitching staff, quality of other defenders, number of right-handed batters faced, stadium differences, etc) are held constant here. I am not for one second saying Peralta is as talented as Iglesias in the field; I’m positively saying I think Iglesias will have a hard time improving on Peralta’s 2013 figures which means the supposed defensive gains Iglesias provides to offset the offensive fallout, comparing 2013 to 2014, look specious to me.
Coming back to the theme that opened this piece, expecting to win more than 90 games in a season usually requires a whole bunch of things to go right and while I think the Tigers are headed back to the postseason donning their fourth straight division crown, I don’t think it’s going to be as easy as everyone expects.
Owing to less division strength than the Rays, Athletics, Red Sox, Rangers, etc. face, the Tigers have been installed as the AL favorite to go to the World Series and prohibitive favorites to win the AL Central. I don’t think it’s going to be that easy this year and I’ll continue my zig-zag tendencies with Detroit since I started publishing these previews before the 2012 season: Under in 2012, over in 2013, and for this year, under the posted win total of 90 ½.
(This was written before it was disclosed Iglesias will miss time, possibly a significant amount, with leg injuries. You can probably comfortably lop another win off this projection.)
2014 Outlook:
87-75 – First in AL Central
720 Runs Scored 668 Runs Allowed
Cleveland Indians
I’m still basking in my very out-of-consensus call last year that not only was Cleveland my favorite over on the board but that they would ride a much better-than-expected season into the playoffs. Therefore, you certainly aren’t going to see me turn on the Indians this year. Oddsmakers have made that default setting rather easy projecting the Indians to win just 82 games this year, off of their 92-win campaign last year. Now, the Indians weren’t 92-wins good last year and not even they would pretend they were just one game short of the Tigers last year despite what the final standings read. (They finished 15-2 including 8-0 vs. the Astros and Twins and were still 6 out with 7 left to play when Detroit shut things down for the playoffs.) Still, this isn’t the aforementioned Orioles. This year’s starting rotation looks arguably stronger than the core that left Spring Training last year, even with the loss of a very rejuvenated Ubaldo Jimenez. Danny Salazar is going way too late in the fantasy drafts I’ve witnessed and while the loss of Jimenez is notable, the departures of Scott Kazmir and Chris Perez may be additions by subtraction despite their serviceable performances in 2013.
At a market of 82 wins, the Indians are a candidate as an Over for the final Opening Day releases.
2014 Outlook:
84-78 – Second in AL Central
704 Runs Scored 675 Runs Allowed
