[h=1]2014 NCAA tourney betting guide[/h][h=3]Bets for every game, title value bets, system plays, upset picks and more[/h]By ESPN Insider Vegas contributors | ESPN Insider
With more than 9.2 quintillion possible NCAA tournament brackets, it's easy to feel overwhelmed. But fear not, Insider is here to help. We've asked our experienced group of gambling experts, including Dave Tuley, Ted Sevransky, PJ Walsh, Geoff Kulesa and Sal Selvaggio what they're looking at when handicapping the bracket and picking tourney games.
What this guide contains:
• Picks for every NCAA tourney game on Thursday and Friday
• Title value bets from Ted Sevransky and Vegas handicappers
• Dave Tuley's Vegas Rankings of all 68 NCAA tournament teams
• Vegas handicappers' best ATS bets, upset picks and over/under bets
• The best system bets from PJ Walsh of Sports Insights
• Top 10 public teams according to Jay Kornegay of the Las Vegas Hotel
• What the bracket should look like according to CBB handicapper Alan Boston
Enjoy and good luck.
<CENTER>[h=3]CBB Vegas Rankings[/h]</CENTER>
LAS VEGAS -- Florida is the No. 1 overall seed in the NCAA tournament. The Gators are No. 1 in the AP writers' poll and the USA Today Coaches Poll.
But they're not No. 1 in the Vegas Rankings.
In fact, the top team from the combined power ratings of our panel of handicappers -- Geoff Kulesa ("Wunderdog") of wunderdogsports.com, Teddy "Covers" Sevransky and yours truly, Dave Tuley -- isn't one of the other No. 1 seeds, or a No. 2 seed or even a No. 3.
Our top-rated team is Louisville, the defending national champions who again look as though they're peaking at the right time coming off their AAC title.
There's a lot of support in Vegas for the Cardinals as the LVH SuperBook made them 15-1 when the brackets were announced Sunday afternoon, but by the end of the night they had been bet down to co-third choice on the futures board with Florida the favorite at 5-1, Michigan State (another No. 4 seed, interestingly enough) as the second choice at 5-1, and then Louisville and Arizona at 7-1. The LVH odds for all 68 NCAA teams are in the accompanying chart, along with their Vegas power ratings.
The ratings are meant to compare the relative strength of the teams if they were to meet on a neutral court, which theoretically all NCAA tournament are supposed to be contested on, though obviously some teams will have more fan support than others, especially those put in regionals close to home.
Here are the 2014 NCAA tournament Vegas Rankings:
<!-- begin inline 2 -->[h=4]2014 NCAA Tournament Vegas Rankings[/h]
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Value plays
No. 5 Oklahoma minus-4 over No. 12 North Dakota State: Our raw numbers have Oklahoma rated 8.5 points over NDSU, yet this 5-12 matchup only has Oklahoma favored by 4.
No. 5 VCU minus-5.5 over No. 12 Stephen F. Austin: Our numbers have VCU rated 8 points better than SFA. That was 3 points higher than the opener of VCU minus-5 at several Vegas books, and still 2.5 points higher than the consensus as of this writing Monday morning.
No. 4 Louisville minus-15.5 over No. 13 Manhattan: This is a big spread, but our power ratings have Louisville (again, our No. 1 team) a solid 18.5 points better than Manhattan.
No. 2 Kansas minus-15.5 over No. 15 Eastern Kentucky: Ditto here, as we have Kansas 18 points superior to EKU.
No. 10 Arizona State plus-2.5 over No. 7 Texas: Our rankings actually have ASU being just a half-point better than Texas, yet they're getting plus-2 and plus-2.5 at most sports books.
No. 9 Pittsburgh minus-5.5 over No. 8 Colorado: A lot of people are expressing surprise that No. 9 seed Pitt is this big of a favorite over No. 8 Colorado, but our combined power ratings have Pitt 7.5 points better.
<CENTER>[h=3]Best value title bets[/h]</CENTER>
There is a very specific set of criteria I look for when placing futures bets on the NCAA tournament. I'm looking for teams that have proven they can win away from home, play championship-level defense, win the battle of the boards, get strong point guard play and have NBA talent on their roster.
The results don't lie -- the NCAA tournament isn't one for long shots, despite the Cinderella stories. Louisville won the No. 1 overall seed last year; Kentucky was the No. 1 overall seed in 2012; Duke was a No. 1 seed in 2010; North Carolina was a No. 1 seed in 2009; Kansas was a No. 1 seed in 2008; and Florida was the No. 1 overall seed in 2007. While my future wager recommendations might be a bit chalky to some, they look that way for a reason.
Here are the best 2014 title value bets:<OFFER></OFFER>
Note: All odds are courtesy of the LVH SuperBook here in Vegas.
Florida (5-1)
The Gators are the No. 1 overall seed for good reason. Florida went 21-0 in SEC play while getting better with each passing game. They've got a coach who has won two national titles and reached the championship game three times. The Gators have future NBA talent with Chris Walker, Casey Prather and Patric Young. They've got a steady, veteran hand at the point in Scottie Wilbekin, backed up by Kasey Hill, another potential NBA talent. Florida ranks among the nation's elites in both rebounding margin and defensive efficiency -- they've got the low post muscle to bang with anybody. And Florida has been winning away from home all year, showing the poise of a veteran squad in hostile environments.
From a betting perspective, Florida isn't going to offer a huge return on investment if it wins, but the Gators are the safest bet to make. If Florida wins the title, it'll cover the cost of some other longshot "huge ROI potential" bets.
Arizona (7-1)
Arizona is the other short favorite that piques my interest. Just about every time I bet against the Wildcats this year, I lost, and I'm not alone in that regard. The Wildcats' lack of depth since Brandon Ashley got hurt is a major concern, but the talent level of Sean Miller's short six-man rotation is truly outstanding, led by NBA prospects Nick Johnson and Aaron Gordon. And few coaches go deep into the bench in March anyway. 'Zona ranks among the top 5 teams in the country in rebounding margin and just set an all-time Pac-12 tournament record with its remarkable defense against Utah and Colorado in its first two matchups. Plus, the West Region is arguably the weakest, offering the Wildcats a relatively easy path to the Final Four.
UCLA (35-1)
The Bruins just beat Arizona in the Pac-12 tournament title game. With Kansas at less than 100 percent without Joel Embiid in the lineup and Syracuse stumbling repeatedly down the stretch, if Florida gets knocked off, the Bruins are very live to make it to Dallas for the Final Four weekend. UCLA has improved by leaps and bounds since November, with four double-digit scorers, led by Jordan Adams and Kyle Anderson. The Bruins are truly an elite offensive team, ranked in the top 25 nationally in points per game, field goal percentage, 3-point shooting percentage and free-throw percentage. UCLA's defense is not statistically outstanding, but with this type of offensive production, it might not matter.
North Carolina (50-1)
The Tar Heels have too much talent to be priced in this range. All of the favorites in the East Region are vulnerable -- that's why No. 4 seed Michigan State has been such a popular choice. But I remember well how easily North Carolina handled the Spartans when these two teams met in East Lansing back in December -- they outplayed MSU from the opening tip. It's not often that you'll find a 50/1 team that has wins over the likes Louisville, Michigan, Kentucky and Duke and just won 12 straight in ACC play.
Louisville (7-1)
The defending champs go 29-5, finish eighth in the nation in scoring and roll through their tourney by 61, 29 and 10 points ... and they're a No. 4 seed? Expect Louisville players to play the "no respect" card in this tournament. This is a talented, all-around team that has a powerful inside game with the 6-foot-8 Montrezl Harrell (14 PPG, 8 RPG), plus the ability to hit 3s with Russ Smith (18.2 PPG) and Wayne Blackshear, both higher than 40 percent from beyond the arc. The Cardinals are 17-7 ATS in nonconference games and the over is 14-3 in their last 17 neutral site games.
Michigan State (5-1)
You need a full complement of players and defense this time of year, and the Spartans have them both -- finally. Michigan State was hit hard by injuries much of the year, but the Spartans recently got to full strength for the first time in nearly two months. It certainly showed in the Big Ten tourney, as they won three in a row by 16, 8 and 14 points (3-0 ATS). This team plays dynamite defense for Tom Izzo and has a powerful frontcourt with 6-10 senior Adreian Payne (15.8 PPG, 7.4 RPG) and 6-6 junior Branden Dawson (10.4 PPG, 8.3 RPG). Dawson is back after missing nine games with a broken hand and shot 7-of-8 against Michigan in the Big 10 title game.
The backcourt leads this balanced team in scoring with sophomore Gary Harris (17 PPG) and senior Keith Appling (12.3 PPG). They have an impressive resume against top 25 teams, knocking off Kentucky (78-74), Ohio State (72-68) and Iowa (71-79 in OT). This is a very live (and underrated) No. 4 seed.
Wichita State (15-1)
You have to win six games to cut down the nets, so why not put your trust in a team that has won 34 straight? Granted, everyone is talking about what a brutal road they have to even get through their regional, but success breeds success sometimes. Besides, if they continue to win, there could be a bandwagon effect that shades the money lines more in their favor the more they look like a team of destiny, so this 15-1 might not be so short after all.
Kentucky (40-1)
They were supposed to be a super team and haven't quite lived up to expectations, but they took Florida to the wire in the SEC title game and it's possible they could put it all together at the right time. If they steal Wichita State's No. 1 line and continue to gain momentum, their ML parlay could pay less than 40-1.
Baylor (100-1)
Last year, I had 50-1 on Baylor before the season and watched them not make the Big Dance and instead get hot and win the NIT. I might have to take a flier just in case they do it again on the big stage.
[h=3]Picks, Picks, Picks[/h]
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Here are the five best ATS bets from Insider's panel of handicappers. These are the teams they have the most confidence will cover the spread.
Tuley
Dayton +6 vs. Ohio State
Gonzaga +2 vs. OK State
New Mexico State +7 vs. San Diego State
Iowa/Tenn TBD vs. UMass
Providence +4 vs. North Carolina
Sevransky
Cincinnati -3 vs. Harvard
North Carolina -4 vs. Providence
North Dakota State +4 vs. Oklahoma
Arizona St +2 vs. Texas
Wisconsin -13.5 vs. Eastern Kentucky
Selvaggio
Oregon -5 vs. BYU
Cincinnati -3 vs. Harvard
OK State -2 vs. Gonzaga
Stanford +4.5 vs. New Mexico
Tulsa +9.5 vs. UCLA
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Here are the teams that our panel feel have the best chance of pulling an opening-game upset.
Tuley
No. 11 Providence over No. 6 North Carolina
No. 9 Kansas State over No. 8 Kentucky
No. 13 New Mexico State over No. 4 San Diego State
No. 8 Colorado ('dog) over No. 9 Pittsburgh
No. 11 Dayton over No. 6 Ohio State
Sevransky
No. 12 North Dakota State over No. 5 Oklahoma
No. 11 Iowa/No. 11 Tennessee winner over No. 6 UMass
No. 12 NC State over No. 5 Saint Louis
No. 10 Stanford over No. 7 New Mexico
No. 11 Nebraska over No. 6 Baylor
Selvaggio
No. 16 Texas Southern over No. 16 Cal Poly
No. 12 NDSU over No. 5 Oklahoma
No. 11 Iowa/No. 11 Tennessee winner over No. 6 UMass
No. 11 Nebraska over No. 6 Baylor
Wunderdog
No. 9 Gonzaga over No. 8 Oklahoma State
No. 11 Iowa/No. 11 Tennessee winner over No. 6 UMass
No. 9 Kansas State over No. 8 Kentucky
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Tuley
Dayton-Ohio State UNDER 130
Gonzaga-Oklahoma State OVER 141
UL-Lafayette-Creighton UNDER 157
Nebraska-Baylor OVER 131.5
Cincinnati-Harvard UNDER 123.5
Sevransky
Oregon-BYU UNDER 161.5
Pitt-Colorado UNDER 128.5
Oklahoma-North Dakota St OVER 152
Cincinnati-Harvard UNDER 123.5
North Carolina-Providence OVER 146
Selvaggio
Arizona State-Texas OVER 141.5
Wofford-Michigan OVER 126
Wunderdog
Manhattan-Louisville UNDER 142.5
NC Central-Iowa State UNDER 144
Tulsa-UCLA UNDER 146
Mercer-Duke UNDER 141
Eastern Kentucky-Kansas UNDER 146
[h=3]Thursday and Friday ATS picks[/h]
Best bets noted with an asterisk.
[h=3]South Regional[/h]
[h=3]No. 1 Florida Gators versus No. 16 Albany Great Danes[/h]
LVH line: Florida minus-21.5
PickCenter consensus pick: N/A
Florida is the No. 1 overall seed with its 32-2 record, but the Gators are barely above average with a 16-13-1 ATS record and an ATS 8-7 away from home, including 2-2 on neutral courts. With their gaudy record and reputation, the Gators often have to lay a lot of points and do enough to win comfortably, but it isn't always enough to cover. This is a big number, so that could happen again. Albany is a middle-of-the-road team at 19-14 but got hot at the right time, as it went 7-1 down the stretch, including 4-0 in the America East tournament (those were the Great Danes' only lined games, so they're 4-0 ATS). Albany is great at getting to the free throw line, and this ATS result could come down to how the refs call fouls when the Great Danes get the ball in the paint.
ATS pick: Albany
[h=3]No. 8 Colorado Buffaloes versus No. 9 Pittsburgh Panthers[/h]
LVH line: Pittsburgh minus-5.5
PickCenter consensus pick: 61 percent picked Pitt
This is an intriguing matchup, especially when 8-9 games usually feature well-matched teams with the point spread closer to pick'em, yet Pittsburgh is a 5.5-point favorite here (and we discussed in the Vegas Rankings that the Panthers are rated even better). However, for my personal pick, I have to go with the underdog Buffs. In some ways, these are mirror teams of each other, both without a superstar and both relying on team defense. Colorado has had to overcome more with the midseason loss of leading scorer Spencer Dinwiddie. They could have folded, but they kept battling to get in the NCAA field. Pitt doesn't have that excuse, yet they tend to play a lot of close games (including four overtimes) and are 12-17-2 ATS, so I wouldn't trust them to cover this number. Give me Colorado in a game that I feel should be more like your typical pick'em 8-9 matchup.
ATS pick: Colorado*
[h=3]No. 5 VCU Rams versus No. 12 Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks[/h]
LVH line: VCU minus-6.5
PickCenter consensus pick: 60 percent picked VCU
We all know about VCU's defense and its overall NCAA tournament success under head coach Shaka Smart. But here's the thing: Stephen F. Austin (I know a lot of you are saying "who?") plays the same way with pressure defense and could be in position to pull one of those 12 vs. 5 upsets that everyone looks for. Every year, there's always that game (at least one) where I pick a team ATS but just don't have the confidence to predict the outright upset and end up kicking myself later (this could be that game this year). SFA has won 28 straight games, but my main reservation is their strength of schedule since their biggest win is against Towson. Can we really trust them to handle the big step up in class? I think they have enough to cover the number here.
ATS pick: Stephen F. Austin
[h=3]No. 4 UCLA Bruins versus No. 13 Tulsa Golden Hurricane[/h]
LVH line: UCLA minus-9
PickCenter consensus pick: 52 percent picked Tulsa
Tulsa comes in with an 11-game winning streak, including winning Conference USA, but if you look back at their past performances, you see that their three games against NCAA tournament-caliber competition were losses to Wichita State, Creighton and Oklahoma, all by double digits. Tulsa has some good guards and shooters, but it just looks like it's too much to ask for them to keep up with UCLA, which averages 81.8 points per game.
ATS pick: UCLA
[h=3]No. 6 Ohio State Buckeyes versus No. 11 Dayton Flyers[/h]
LVH line: Ohio State minus-6
PickCenter consensus pick: 53 percent picked Dayton
Dayton has been dying for this matchup all year, and now gets to face the big university in its state -- in the NCAA tournament of all places. Of course, everyone wants to win, so we can't just rely on that motivation for a pick. This is as much a pick against Ohio State, which has underachieved all year with a 15-18 ATS mark and a 12-17 ATS (41.4 percent) record as a favorite, as it is a pick for Dayton. Dayton doesn't have a star player, but it has a lot of depth and is able to run-and-gun. Ohio State has had problems with that style this year and isn't a very good shooting team itself. The Buckeyes are a prime candidate for an early exit.
ATS pick: Dayton*
[h=3]No. 3 Syracuse Orange versus No. 14 Western Michigan Broncos[/h]
LVH line: Syracuse minus-12.5
PickCenter consensus pick: 63 percent picked Western Michigan
The Orange haven't been playing as well lately as they did when they got off to a 25-0 start, but they're still a pretty good team. The big spread is tempting, but I don't think Western Michigan is a good enough match to stick with Syracuse's 2-3 zone. Shayne Whittington is Western Michigan's big man inside, but the Broncos turn the ball over too much and aren't proficient enough from 3-point range to keep the Orange from collapsing on Whittington. If Syracuse also takes away David Brown, it'll be a rout, but even if WMU has some success, I don't see them having enough to stay inside this number.
ATS pick: Syracuse
[h=3]No. 7 New Mexico Lobos versus No. 10 Stanford Cardinal[/h]
LVH line: New Mexico minus-4
PickCenter consensus pick: 63 percent picked New Mexico
I liked the favored Lobos more when the line opened at 2.5, but I still think they're the right side. They do everything right, and I have them going to at least the Sweet 16 in most of my brackets (which would also mean a win over No. 2 seed Kansas over the weekend). Stanford has four players averaging double figures, but I'll still take the Lobos' trio of Cameron Bairstow (20.3 PPG), Kendall Williams (16.4 PPG) and Alex Kirk (13.6 PPG). New Mexico does everything well, and a big advantage should be its ability to keep Stanford off the offensive glass and minimize second-chance putbacks, while converting them on the other end.
ATS pick: New Mexico
[h=3]No. 2 Kansas Jayhawks versus No. 15 Eastern Kentucky Colonels[/h]
LVH line: Kansas minus-15
PickCenter consensus pick: 62 percent picked Eastern Kentucky
The Jayhawks earned this seed mostly off the regular season before losing big man Joel Embiid. Even without him, they should dominate EKU on the boards. But -- and this is a big but -- Eastern Kentucky can shoot the lights out, making 39 percent of its 3-point attempts this season. If the Colonels can do that Friday, they have a shot against a Kansas team that is 2-3 without Embiid. The good thing about this type of scenario is if the Colonels are hot early, they can stick around all game and stay within the number; however, even if they struggle early and get down big, they still have the ability to knock down some late 3's and get a back-door cover if Kansas is coasting late.
ATS pick: Eastern Kentucky*
[h=3]West Regional[/h]
[h=3]No. 1 Arizona Wildcats versus No. 16 Weber State Wildcats[/h]
LVH line: Arizona minus-19.5
PickCenter consensus pick: 55 percent picked Weber State
This line has been as high as 21.5, so someone out there is betting Weber State (and ESPN's PickCenter had 55 percent of bets on Weber State as of Monday afternoon), but I'm not biting. Weber State is efficient on offense, but it hasn't faced a defense as good as Arizona this season. In fact, the Wildcats' only game against the Pac-12 was against UCLA, not known for their defense, and Weber State lost by 23. Arizona should pretty much be able to name the score here.
ATS pick: Arizona
[h=3]No. 8 Gonzaga Bulldogs versus No. 9 Oklahoma State Cowboys[/h]
LVH line: Oklahoma State minus-2
PickCenter consensus pick: 68 percent picked Oklahoma State
This is one of the best opening-game matchups, with the 9-seed being favored because of everyone jumping on the Marcus Smart bandwagon as Oklahoma State is 5-2 since his return from suspension. But give me Gonzaga as an underdog -- it's not often we see them in this role anymore -- as I believe they have the more complete team against the inconsistent Cowboys.
ATS pick: Gonzaga*
[h=3]No. 5 Oklahoma Sooners versus No. 12 North Dakota State Bison[/h]
LVH line: Oklahoma minus-4
PickCenter consensus pick: 62 percent picked North Dakota State
Now here's a more consistent team from Oklahoma. I'm not going to knock North Dakota State because I'm sure I'd like them against a lot of other teams in the field, and I'm sure they're going to be a popular 12 vs. 5 play in brackets -- and they should be, as they take good shots (leading the nation at 50.9 percent field goal percentage), play good defense and hit the boards. However, they are stepping up in class and obviously the oddsmakers have taken a lot of value out of the underdog, with Oklahoma only having to lay four points. A few years ago, this matchup would have been a double-digit spread and much more attractive for the 'dog.
ATS pick: Oklahoma
[h=3]No. 4 San Diego State Aztecs versus No. 13 New Mexico State Aggies[/h]
LVH line: San Diego State minus-7
PickCenter consensus pick: 56 percent picked San Diego State
San Diego State lost two of three games against New Mexico this season, including the Mountain West title game, but the Aztecs would be making a big mistake if they think this will be a cakewalk against the "other" school from the Land of Enchantment. To pull a March Madness upset, you usually need hot 3-point shooting or a big man to control the paint. Well, NMSU has 7-foot-5 (yep, you read that right) Sim Bhullar, along with two other big men at 6-10. New Mexico State split its season series against its in-state rival and has a great shot to stick with San Diego State here, as the Aztecs haven't been scoring well -- a low-scoring game always bodes well when you're getting this many points.
ATS pick: New Mexico State*
[h=3]No. 6 Baylor Bears versus No. 11 Nebraska Cornhuskers[/h]
LVH line: Baylor minus-3.5
PickCenter consensus pick: 63 percent picked Baylor
Disclosure: I have a love-hate relationship with Baylor. I really like its players, and the Bears were my long shot pick to win the NCAA last year at 50-1. They were on the bubble all year and ended up settling for an NIT berth, after which they then ran off five straight wins for the title (which pays zero on NCAA futures). However, I think they're getting hot at the right time again. Nebraska has been playing its best basketball lately, too, but overall I think Baylor will win the battle of the boards with 7-1 Isaiah Austin and cover the short number.
ATS pick: Baylor*
[h=3]No. 3 Creighton Bluejays versus No. 14 UL-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns[/h]
LVH line: Creighton minus-13.5
PickCenter consensus pick: 59 percent picked LA-Lafayette
Doug McDermott (26.9 points per game) seems to show up every night and leads a Creighton offense attack that hits an impressive 42 percent of its 3-point shots. There will probably come a game this tournament when that ends, but Creighton should still have enough to roll over UL-Lafayette even on an off night. The Ragin' Cajuns (they win the battle of the nicknames) are undersized, and while they actually average more points than Creighton (81.4 to 79.5), their size is a liability on defense and especially on the boards.
ATS pick: Creighton
[h=3]No. 7 Oregon Ducks versus No. 10 BYU Cougars[/h]
LVH line: Oregon minus-6.5
PickCenter consensus pick: 65 percent picked Oregon
If BYU hadn't lost Kyle Collinsworth in the WCC title game loss here in Vegas, I might actually be on the Cougars here. This should be a track meet -- just like most of Oregon's football games -- as they score a lot but also give up a lot. The problem with BYU is the Cougars do the same, as they allow 77 points per game and even more (83.4 PPG) away from home. Without Collinsworth, I don't see BYU being able to keep up with Oregon's pace.
ATS pick: Oregon
[h=3]No. 2 Wisconsin Badgers versus No. 15 American University Eagles[/h]
LVH line: Wisconsin minus-13.5
PickCenter consensus pick: 58 percent picked Wisconsin
Wisconsin battled for the Big Ten title and was in the discussion to be a No. 1 seed, so in a way this number looks a little short -- even more reason I can't pull the trigger on this underdog. With a potent offense, the Badgers don't rely as much on their defense as we're used to seeing. In years past, the fact that American runs a deliberate offense would play right into this being a low-scoring game and the 13.5 points having a greater chance to come into play. But with this year's Badgers team, I'll stick to my other underdog plays.
ATS pick: Wisconsin
[h=3]East Regional[/h]
[h=3]No. 1 Virginia Cavaliers versus No. 16 Coastal Carolina Chanticleers[/h]
LVH line: Virginia minus-21.5
PickCenter consensus pick: 58 percent picked Coastal Carolina
Virginia dominated the ACC regular season and won the conference tournament, as well, yet Tony Bennett's Cavaliers are the most anonymous No. 1 seed in recent memory. Leading scorer Malcolm Brogdon averages fewer than 13 points per game, and Virginia isn't going to send anybody to the NBA this coming offseason. That anonymity has resulted in a strong point-spread mark in nearly every role, although the Cavs haven't covered a 20-plus point spread all year, and could easily look past the Chanticleers. However, I've got Coastal Carolina ranked as the 67th-best team in a 68-team field. They lost by 29 in their last "step-up-in-class" game at Clemson and can't be expected to compete here.
ATS pick: Virginia
[h=3]No. 8 Memphis Tigers versus No. 9 George Washington Colonials[/h]
LVH line: Memphis minus-3
PickCenter consensus pick: 56 percent picked Memphis
Josh Pastner has had the Memphis job for five years, but I'm still waiting for him to actually outcoach somebody. The Tigers have all the makings of a tourney sleeper, with four strong senior guards and a pair of low-post studs in Shaq Goodwin and Austin Nichols.
But Memphis has struggled mightily away from home in recent weeks, notching only one cover in six tries, and that came in an OT loss at UConn. George Washington's lack of quality depth was a major factor in its A-10 Tourney defeat at the hands of VCU, but the Colonials will be rested and ready here, primed to pull off the minor upset.
ATS pick: George Washington
[h=3]No. 5 Cincinnati Bearcats versus No. 12 Harvard Crimson[/h]
LVH line: Cincinnati minus-3
PickCenter consensus pick: 52 percent picked Harvard
Ivy League entrants have been an NCAA tournament point-spread disaster area for more than a decade (4-12 ATS in their last 16 tourney openers). The Crimson did pull off an upset over New Mexico last year but got blasted in their next game against Arizona. And Tommy Amaker's squad was an underdog only twice this year, losing and failing to cover in step-up games against Colorado and UConn (the only tourney teams they faced).
Cincinnati doesn't have enough offense after Sean Kilpatrick to make a deep run in this tourney, but the Bearcats were good enough to beat the likes of Pitt, Louisville and Memphis away from home. I like Cincy's defense more than Harvard's balanced scoring.
ATS pick: Cincinnati*
[h=3]No. 4 Michigan State Spartans versus No. 13 Delaware Fightin Blue Hens[/h]
LVH line: Michigan State minus-14
PickCenter consensus pick: 62 percent picked Michigan State
I had high hopes for finding point-spread bargains in support of Michigan State come tourney time, but that simply hasn't worked out. Many experts are picking Tom Izzo's squad to make a run to the Final Four, and the finally healthy Spartans have national championship-caliber upside -- as clearly evidenced by the fact that the Vegas casinos have Michigan State as the No. 2 choice (behind Florida) to win it all.
There's simply no value on Michigan State at the current numbers, including with this inflated point spread. Delaware hung tough on the highway in spread-covering losses at Ohio State and Villanova back in November and is capable of avoiding an ugly blowout here.
ATS pick: Delaware
[h=3]No. 6 UNC Tar Heels versus No. 11 Providence Friars[/h]
LVH line: North Carolina minus-4
PickCenter consensus pick: 54 percent picked UNC
Providence is fairly high on my list of "bet against" teams in the Big Dance. The Friars expended maximum energy winning the Big East Tourney last weekend -- very bad news for a team with no depth whatsoever -- and Ed Cooley used a six-man rotation in the title game, with four of his five starters playing all 40 minutes. North Carolina's early exit from the ACC tournament was no surprise -- Roy Williams has a long track record of conference tournament failures followed by NCAA tournament success. The Tar Heels won 12 straight down the stretch and are loaded with NBA-caliber talent. They are primed to make a deep run.
ATS pick: North Carolina*
[h=3]No. 3 Iowa State Cyclones versus No. 14 North Carolina Central Eagles[/h]
LVH line: Iowa State minus-9
PickCenter consensus pick: 51 percent picked NC Central
I'm in no rush to lay points with teams that won their conference tournament last weekend, leaving them physically and emotionally exhausted, especially when those teams are facing an opponent not likely to excite them. The Cyclones will be hard-pressed to match their efforts from their last four games -- all wins and covers against fellow tournament teams.
North Carolina Central won at NC State in overtime back in November and Jeremy Ingram's 37 point effort kept things relatively close in an 11-point loss at Wichita State. Don't be surprised if the Eagles hang around in this game.
ATS pick: North Carolina Central
[h=3]No. 7 Connecticut Huskies versus No. 10 St. Joseph's Hawks[/h]
LVH line: UConn minus-4.5
PickCenter consensus pick: 59 percent picked St. Joe's
UConn has the hunger that I'm looking for in an opening-round matchup after sanctions cost the Huskies their postseason last year. UConn has the guard play that I'm looking for, as well, with experienced veterans Shabazz Napier and Ryan Boatright making excellent decisions with the basketball. And the Huskies are a top-10 team in free throw shooting percentage, a key factor in this "short favorite" point spread range.
St. Joe's hasn't won an NCAA tournament game since Jameer Nelson and Delonte West were their starting guards back in 2004. They'll be hard-pressed to match their A-10 tourney success from last weekend.
ATS pick: Connecticut
[h=3]No. 2 Villanova Wildcats versus No. 15 Milwaukee Panthers[/h]
LVH line: Villanova minus-16.5
PickCenter consensus pick: 64 percent picked Milwaukee
Milwaukee made me money during its improbable run to earn the Horizon League automatic bid. Rob Jeter's squad showed mental toughness in bunches, earning hard-fought wins on the road at Green Bay and then at Wright State as part of a late season 4-0 SU run as underdogs.
Villanova was an elite-level ATS squad this year entering the Big Dance on a 21-9 point-spread run (the third-best winning percentage in the country behind Tulsa and Wichita State). That includes an 11-2 point spread record as double-digit favorites. But that extended point-spread success ensures that Wildcats backers won't be getting any point spread bargains this coming weekend.
ATS pick: Milwaukee
[h=3]Midwest Regional[/h]
[h=3]No. 1 Wichita State Shockers versus No. 16 Cal Poly/No. 16 Texas Southern winner[/h]
LVH line: N/A
PickCenter consensus pick: N/A
Update coming.
ATS pick: NA
[h=3]No. 8 Kentucky Wildcats versus No. 9 Kansas State Wildcats[/h]
LVH line: Kentucky minus-4.5
PickCenter consensus pick: 61 percent picked Kentucky
Kentucky is arguably the best No. 8 seed in NCAA tournament history. The Wildcats were the preseason No. 1, a clear indication of their talent level. John Calipari has as many as eight future NBA players on his roster, including projected top-5 pick Julius Randle. But they've been wildly inconsistent all year -- a team that could reach the Final Four or get bounced in the first round without any shock here in Vegas.
I'm inclined to pick the latter of the two as the more likely possibility. If Kentucky gets caught looking ahead to a potential matchup against Wichita State over the weekend, they're on upset alert. Kansas State got beaten up down the stretch against the quality depth of the Big 12, but it was good enough to beat five of the six other Big 12 schools that made the tourney.
ATS pick: Kansas State
[h=3]No. 5 St. Louis Billikens versus No. 12 NC State Wolfpack[/h]
LVH line: St. Louis minus-2.5
PickCenter consensus pick: N/A
The Billikens were never a great team, even when they were 25-2 and ranked in the top 10. St. Louis is stout defensively and has been remarkably adept (or lucky) at winning close games; 7-0 SU in games decided by four points or less or in overtime. But Jim Crews' squad has been a substantial money loser in Vegas all year long, a woeful 10-19 ATS -- the single worst point-spread mark for any team in the tournament.
NC State has been facing vastly superior competition in the ACC this year. The Wolfpack are riding a boatload of momentum off a strong conference tourney run and a dominant effort in their first Four game. And the Wolfpack will have the best player on the floor in sophomore forward T.J. Warren, who is riding an 18-game streak of 20-plus point games. This No. 12 seed is flat-out better than the No. 5 seed.
ATS pick: NC State
[h=3]No. 4 Louisville Cardinals versus No. 13 Manhattan Jaspers[/h]
LVH line: Louisville minus-16
PickCenter consensus pick: 71 percent picked Louisville
Here in Las Vegas, Louisville is power rated as the second best team in the country, right there with Florida and Arizona. Vegas is much better than the tournament selection committee at determining where teams actually rank in comparison to one another, and Louisville is clearly a serious threat to win it all ... if the Cardinals can survive this brutal Midwest Region.
Rick Pitino will face off against former assistant Steve Masiello here. Masiello's Jaspers have a legitimate star in George Beamon, but they've yet to see an elite-level defense like the one they'll face here yet. Manhattan has decent depth, but there's no way I'm stepping in front of the Cardinals right now.
ATS pick: Louisville
[h=3]No. 6 Massachusetts Minutemen versus No. 11 Iowa/No. 11 Tennessee winner[/h]
LVH line: N/A
PickCenter consensus pick: N/A
Update coming.
ATS pick: N/A
[h=3]No. 3 Duke Blue Devils versus No. 14 Mercer Bears[/h]LVH line: Duke minus-13
PickCenter consensus pick: 60 percent picked Mercer
Coach K rarely has a deep bench, and Duke's 2014 squad is no exception to that rule. The Blue Devils' lack of quality depth has been a major factor during their current point spread free fall, notching ATS wins only twice in their last 10 games. The Blue Devils have been wearing down late in games and have been outscored 76-47 in the last five minutes of their last five contests.
Duke failed to cover in its opener against Albany last year and lost outright to Lehigh in its opener in 2012; not exactly a point spread powerhouse for their supporters come tourney time. Mercer is a strong enough offensive team to trade baskets here for extended stretches, and fellow Atlantic Sun Conference squad Florida Gulf Coast pulled off a pair of major upsets in last year's tourney.
ATS pick: Mercer*
[h=3]No. 7 Texas Longhorns versus No. 10 Arizona State Sun Devils[/h]
LVH line: Texas minus-1.5
PickCenter consensus pick: 60 percent picked Texas
Texas has consistently underachieved in the Big Dance throughout the Rick Barnes era. And this very young team didn't play well away from home down the stretch, cashing once in its last eight ATS tries in neutral or hostile environments.
The Longhorns enjoy a matchup edge in the low post against many opponents, but Arizona State has 7-2 behemoth Jordan Bachynski manning the paint. The underdog Sun Devils have the edge at point guard with ultraquick Jahii Carson primed to give the Longhorns trouble in Milwaukee.
ATS pick: Arizona State
[h=3]No. 2 Michigan Wolverines versus No. 15 Wofford Terriers[/h]
LVH line: Michigan minus-15.5
PickCenter consensus pick: 56 percent picked Michigan
The Wolverines went 5-0 ATS on their way to the national championship game last year before coming up short against Louisville. This year, they've been an overvalued commodity in recent weeks; just 2-6 ATS in their last eight tries at minus-3 or higher, repeatedly failing to extend their margin of victory in the games that they win.
Wofford suffered a handful of early-season blowout losses, but the Terriers haven't lost a single game by more than 15 points since November. On their last visit to the Big Dance, the Terriers covered the spread in an eight-point loss to BYU, and their excellent perimeter defense gives them a decent shot to hang around for a long while in this one.
ATS pick: Wofford
[h=3]PJ Walsh's system bets[/h]
In last week's conference tournament betting guide, we noted that public bettors traditionally play overs (opposed to unders) in hopes of seeing an exciting basketball game. Now that Selection Sunday has passed and the official 2014 NCAA tournament bracket has been released, more public money will hit the college basketball betting market than at any other time throughout the season. With this in mind, we developed an NCAA tournament betting system that not only exploits the public trend toward overs, but one that has been historically profitable with sound betting theory, as well.
Specifically, we started with a theory that opening-round games involving highly seeded teams could trend toward the under. Because these games are generally mismatches, it makes sense to expect high seeds to blow out the lower seeds, leading them to run out the clock late in games instead of trying to score. By "taking the air out of the ball," top teams shorten the game, reduce scoring and lead to more games going under the total.
To test this theory, we turned to our Bet Labs data analysis software and created an over/under system that isolated first round NCAA tournament games since 2005. We then applied Bet Labs' Seed Filter and instantly found that our theory had value.
The table below summarizes the results of our analysis. <!-- begin inline 3 -->[h=4]NCAA tournament opening-round over/under results, since 2005[/h]
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<!-- end inline 3 -->Not only has this system been profitable over the nine NCAA tournaments we analyzed, it has also produced positive units won in seven of those tournaments with 2007 (minus-0.56 units) and 2009 (minus-1.37 units) being the only losing years.
Overvalued/undervalued NCAA tournament teams
We developed a model that combines betting market probabilities, our proprietary power ratings and expected randomness to simulate the entire NCAA tournament. We then ran 1 million simulations and compared those results with current NCAA tournament futures from LVH to determine the most overvalued and undervalued championship contenders.
Undervalued
1. No. 1 Virginia
2. No. 1 Wichita State
3. No. 2 Villanova
At 10.2 percent, our model gives Virginia the fourth-best odds to win the NCAA tournament title, suggesting their current futures price of 18-1 is a solid value play.
Best and worst coaches to bet on
Coaching is a huge part of college basketball, so bettors should be aware of the men in charge of each team. Below is a list of the best and worst coaches to bet on in the NCAA tourney this year and their corresponding ATS tourney records.
<!-- begin inline 4 -->[h=4]Most profitable coaches to bet on (since 2005)[/h]Results based on units won.
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[h=4]Least profitable coaches to bet on (since 2005)[/h]Results based on units won.
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<CENTER>[h=3]Jay Kornegay's top public teams[/h]</CENTER>
The 10 teams, according to Kornegay, lead bookmaker at the LVH, and his staff, that are the most popular teams to wager on as the tourney begins.
1. VCU
2. Arizona
3. Kansas
4. Wichita State
5. North Dakota State
6. Harvard
7. Florida
8. Michigan State
9. Gonzaga
10. San Diego State
<CENTER>[h=3]Alan Boston's bracket according to Vegas[/h]</CENTER>
The NCAA selection committee has its way of picking a bracket, and I have mine. Their way has certain flaws, I believe, while mine is a pragmatic approach based on my power ratings.
My ratings are based on my 25 years of betting experience and focus on the overall strength of a college basketball program over time. I also incorporate if a team has a new coach, the recruiting class, a team's overall experience (especially at point guard) and several other factors. I'm constantly tweaking the teams' ratings over the course of the season, but I've been doing this for long enough that my ratings going into the tournament aren't that far from my initial ratings before the season.
In compiling my bracket, I simply ran down the top teams in my power ratings and grouped them by seed. For example, my top-rated team is Louisville; after that, I have Arizona, Florida and Michigan State. Those four teams are my No. 1 seeds, and so on.
Here is my version of the 2014 NCAA tourney bracket (what the bracket should look like):
SOUTH
1 Louisville
16 Albany/Mount St. Mary's
8 Harvard
9 Oregon
5 Ohio State
12 Tulsa
4 Michigan
13 New Mexico State
6 St. Louis
11 St. John's
3 Syracuse
14 Western Michigan
7 Cincinnati
10 Stanford
2 Wichita State
15 Weber State
Most overseed teams (compared to actual bracket)
Oregon, Cincinnati
Most underseeded teams
Harvard, St. John's
----
WEST
1 Florida
16 Texas So./Coastal Carolina
8 Memphis
9 Xavier
5 Kentucky
12 North Dakota State
4 Pitt
13 UNC Central
6 New Mexico
11 Florida State
3 Iowa
14 Delaware
7 Tennessee
10 Wisconsin-Green Bay
2 Villanova
15 American
Most overseed teams (compared to actual bracket)
None
Most underseeded teams
Wisconsin-Green Bay, Florida State, Iowa, Xavier, Tennessee
----
MIDWEST
1 Arizona
16 Milwaukee
8 La. Tech
9 Iowa State
5 UCLA
12 St. Joseph's
4 Wisconsin
13 Stephen F. Austin
6 San Diego State
11 Providence
3 Creighton
14 Eastern Kentucky
7 Oklahoma State
10 Minnesota
2 Duke
15 UL-Lafayette
Most overseed teams (compared to actual bracket)
Wisconsin, Iowa State
Most underseeded teams
Minnesota, St. Joseph's, La. Tech
----
EAST
1 Michigan State
16 Cal Poly
8 SMU
9 Southern Miss
5 VCU
12 LSU/Baylor
4 Kansas
13 Mercer
6 North Carolina
11 Utah/BYU
3 Gonzaga
14 Manhattan
7 UConn
10 Oklahoma
2 Virginia
15 Wofford
Most overseed teams (compared to actual bracket)
Oklahoma, Kansas, Baylor
Most underseeded teams
SMU, Southern Miss, LSU
With more than 9.2 quintillion possible NCAA tournament brackets, it's easy to feel overwhelmed. But fear not, Insider is here to help. We've asked our experienced group of gambling experts, including Dave Tuley, Ted Sevransky, PJ Walsh, Geoff Kulesa and Sal Selvaggio what they're looking at when handicapping the bracket and picking tourney games.
What this guide contains:
• Picks for every NCAA tourney game on Thursday and Friday
• Title value bets from Ted Sevransky and Vegas handicappers
• Dave Tuley's Vegas Rankings of all 68 NCAA tournament teams
• Vegas handicappers' best ATS bets, upset picks and over/under bets
• The best system bets from PJ Walsh of Sports Insights
• Top 10 public teams according to Jay Kornegay of the Las Vegas Hotel
• What the bracket should look like according to CBB handicapper Alan Boston
Enjoy and good luck.
<CENTER>[h=3]CBB Vegas Rankings[/h]</CENTER>
LAS VEGAS -- Florida is the No. 1 overall seed in the NCAA tournament. The Gators are No. 1 in the AP writers' poll and the USA Today Coaches Poll.
But they're not No. 1 in the Vegas Rankings.
In fact, the top team from the combined power ratings of our panel of handicappers -- Geoff Kulesa ("Wunderdog") of wunderdogsports.com, Teddy "Covers" Sevransky and yours truly, Dave Tuley -- isn't one of the other No. 1 seeds, or a No. 2 seed or even a No. 3.
Our top-rated team is Louisville, the defending national champions who again look as though they're peaking at the right time coming off their AAC title.
There's a lot of support in Vegas for the Cardinals as the LVH SuperBook made them 15-1 when the brackets were announced Sunday afternoon, but by the end of the night they had been bet down to co-third choice on the futures board with Florida the favorite at 5-1, Michigan State (another No. 4 seed, interestingly enough) as the second choice at 5-1, and then Louisville and Arizona at 7-1. The LVH odds for all 68 NCAA teams are in the accompanying chart, along with their Vegas power ratings.
The ratings are meant to compare the relative strength of the teams if they were to meet on a neutral court, which theoretically all NCAA tournament are supposed to be contested on, though obviously some teams will have more fan support than others, especially those put in regionals close to home.
Here are the 2014 NCAA tournament Vegas Rankings:
<!-- begin inline 2 -->[h=4]2014 NCAA Tournament Vegas Rankings[/h]
| Vegas Rank | BPI Rank | Team | Vegas Power Ranking | Title Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| (f)=field of all others Title odds courtesy of the LVH | ||||
| 1 | 4 | Louisville | 100 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Florida | 99.5 | 4-1 |
| 3 | 1 | Arizona | 99 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 5 | Kansas | 96.5 | 10-1 |
| 5T | 9 | Michigan St. | 96 | 5-1 |
| 5T | 6 | Virginia | 96 | 18-1 |
| 7 | 8 | Duke | 95.5 | 15-1 |
| 8 | 7 | Villanova | 95 | 25-1 |
| 9 | 3 | Wichita St | 94.5 | 15-1 |
| 10 | 23 | Michigan | 94 | 25-1 |
| 11 | 16 | UCLA | 93 | 35 |
| 12T | 12 | Iowa St | 92 | 35-1 |
| 12T | 15 | Creighton | 92 | 25-1 |
| 14T | 19 | Oklahoma St. | 91.5 | 50-1 |
| 14T | 11 | Wisconsin | 91.5 | 20-1 |
| 14T | 13 | Pittsburgh | 91.5 | 100-1 |
| 17 | 10 | Kentucky | 91 | 40-1 |
| 18T | 14 | Syracuse | 90.5 | 15-1 |
| 18T | 25 | Gonzaga | 90.5 | 100-1 |
| 20T | 27 | New Mexico | 90 | 100-1 |
| 20T | 31 | Tennessee | 90 | 100-1 |
| 22T | 29 | North Carolina | 89.5 | 40-1 |
| 22T | 17 | Ohio State | 89.5 | 50-1 |
| 22T | 18 | VCU | 89.5 | 75-1 |
| 25T | 20 | Oregon | 89 | 100-1 |
| 25T | 22 | San Diego St. | 89 | 75-1 |
| 25T | 21 | Iowa | 89 | 100-1 |
| 25T | 35 | Baylor | 89 | 100-1 |
| 25T | 28 | UConn | 89 | 100-1 |
| 30 | 26 | Oklahoma | 88.5 | 100-1 |
| 31T | 30 | Saint Louis | 88 | 100-1 |
| 31T | 24 | Cincinnati | 88 | 100-1 |
| 33T | 39 | Arizona St. | 87 | 300-1 |
| 33T | 37 | Harvard | 87 | 1000-1 |
| 33T | 46 | Providence | 87 | 200-1 |
| 36T | 36 | Stanford | 86.5 | 200-1 |
| 36T | 43 | Memphis | 86.5 | 100-1 |
| 36T | 45 | Texas | 86.5 | 100-1 |
| 39T | 49 | Kansas St. | 86 | 300-1 |
| 39T | 55 | St. Joseph's | 86 | 300-1 |
| 41T | 57 | Nebraska | 84.5 | 500-1 |
| 41T | 48 | Xavier | 84.5 | 500-1 |
| 41T | 38 | George Washington | 84.5 | 500-1 |
| 44T | 51 | Colorado | 84 | 500-1 |
| 44T | 42 | BYU | 84 | 500-1 |
| 46 | 47 | Dayton | 83.5 | 500-1 |
| 47T | 32 | UMass | 83 | 200-1 |
| 47T | 83 | Tulsa | 83 | 100-1(f) |
| 47T | 64 | North Dakota St. | 83 | 1000-1 |
| 50 | 66 | North Carolina St. | 82 | 1000-1 |
| 51T | 73 | Stephen F. Austin | 81.5 | 100-1(f) |
| 51T | 77 | New Mexico St. | 81.5 | 100-1(f) |
| 51T | 74 | Manhattan | 81.5 | 100-1(f) |
| 54 | 98 | North Carolina Central | 81 | 100-1(f) |
| 55 | 97 | Delaware | 80.5 | 100-1(f) |
| 56T | 103 | Mercer | 80 | 100-1(f) |
| 56T | 123 | UL-Lafayette | 80 | 100-1(f) |
| 58 | 119 | Western Michigan | 79.5 | 100-1(f) |
| 59 | 137 | American U | 79 | 100-1(f) |
| 60 | 139 | Eastern Kentucky | 78.5 | 100-1(f) |
| 61 | 148 | Milwaukee | 78 | 100-1(f) |
| 62 | 157 | Weber State | 77.5 | 100-1(f) |
| 63 | 190 | Cal Poly | 76.5 | 100-1(f) |
| 64 | 174 | Wofford | 76 | 100-1(f) |
| 65 | 196 | Albany | 75.5 | 100-1(f) |
| 66 | 238 | Mount St Mary's | 74 | 100-1(f) |
| 67 | 191 | Coastal Carolina | 73.5 | 100-1(f) |
| 68 | 259 | Texas Southern | 73 | 100-1(f) |
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Value plays
No. 5 Oklahoma minus-4 over No. 12 North Dakota State: Our raw numbers have Oklahoma rated 8.5 points over NDSU, yet this 5-12 matchup only has Oklahoma favored by 4.
No. 5 VCU minus-5.5 over No. 12 Stephen F. Austin: Our numbers have VCU rated 8 points better than SFA. That was 3 points higher than the opener of VCU minus-5 at several Vegas books, and still 2.5 points higher than the consensus as of this writing Monday morning.
No. 4 Louisville minus-15.5 over No. 13 Manhattan: This is a big spread, but our power ratings have Louisville (again, our No. 1 team) a solid 18.5 points better than Manhattan.
No. 2 Kansas minus-15.5 over No. 15 Eastern Kentucky: Ditto here, as we have Kansas 18 points superior to EKU.
No. 10 Arizona State plus-2.5 over No. 7 Texas: Our rankings actually have ASU being just a half-point better than Texas, yet they're getting plus-2 and plus-2.5 at most sports books.
No. 9 Pittsburgh minus-5.5 over No. 8 Colorado: A lot of people are expressing surprise that No. 9 seed Pitt is this big of a favorite over No. 8 Colorado, but our combined power ratings have Pitt 7.5 points better.
<CENTER>[h=3]Best value title bets[/h]</CENTER>
There is a very specific set of criteria I look for when placing futures bets on the NCAA tournament. I'm looking for teams that have proven they can win away from home, play championship-level defense, win the battle of the boards, get strong point guard play and have NBA talent on their roster.
The results don't lie -- the NCAA tournament isn't one for long shots, despite the Cinderella stories. Louisville won the No. 1 overall seed last year; Kentucky was the No. 1 overall seed in 2012; Duke was a No. 1 seed in 2010; North Carolina was a No. 1 seed in 2009; Kansas was a No. 1 seed in 2008; and Florida was the No. 1 overall seed in 2007. While my future wager recommendations might be a bit chalky to some, they look that way for a reason.
Here are the best 2014 title value bets:<OFFER></OFFER>
Note: All odds are courtesy of the LVH SuperBook here in Vegas.
Florida (5-1)
The Gators are the No. 1 overall seed for good reason. Florida went 21-0 in SEC play while getting better with each passing game. They've got a coach who has won two national titles and reached the championship game three times. The Gators have future NBA talent with Chris Walker, Casey Prather and Patric Young. They've got a steady, veteran hand at the point in Scottie Wilbekin, backed up by Kasey Hill, another potential NBA talent. Florida ranks among the nation's elites in both rebounding margin and defensive efficiency -- they've got the low post muscle to bang with anybody. And Florida has been winning away from home all year, showing the poise of a veteran squad in hostile environments.
From a betting perspective, Florida isn't going to offer a huge return on investment if it wins, but the Gators are the safest bet to make. If Florida wins the title, it'll cover the cost of some other longshot "huge ROI potential" bets.
Arizona (7-1)
Arizona is the other short favorite that piques my interest. Just about every time I bet against the Wildcats this year, I lost, and I'm not alone in that regard. The Wildcats' lack of depth since Brandon Ashley got hurt is a major concern, but the talent level of Sean Miller's short six-man rotation is truly outstanding, led by NBA prospects Nick Johnson and Aaron Gordon. And few coaches go deep into the bench in March anyway. 'Zona ranks among the top 5 teams in the country in rebounding margin and just set an all-time Pac-12 tournament record with its remarkable defense against Utah and Colorado in its first two matchups. Plus, the West Region is arguably the weakest, offering the Wildcats a relatively easy path to the Final Four.
UCLA (35-1)
The Bruins just beat Arizona in the Pac-12 tournament title game. With Kansas at less than 100 percent without Joel Embiid in the lineup and Syracuse stumbling repeatedly down the stretch, if Florida gets knocked off, the Bruins are very live to make it to Dallas for the Final Four weekend. UCLA has improved by leaps and bounds since November, with four double-digit scorers, led by Jordan Adams and Kyle Anderson. The Bruins are truly an elite offensive team, ranked in the top 25 nationally in points per game, field goal percentage, 3-point shooting percentage and free-throw percentage. UCLA's defense is not statistically outstanding, but with this type of offensive production, it might not matter.
North Carolina (50-1)
The Tar Heels have too much talent to be priced in this range. All of the favorites in the East Region are vulnerable -- that's why No. 4 seed Michigan State has been such a popular choice. But I remember well how easily North Carolina handled the Spartans when these two teams met in East Lansing back in December -- they outplayed MSU from the opening tip. It's not often that you'll find a 50/1 team that has wins over the likes Louisville, Michigan, Kentucky and Duke and just won 12 straight in ACC play.
-- Sevransky
Louisville (7-1)
The defending champs go 29-5, finish eighth in the nation in scoring and roll through their tourney by 61, 29 and 10 points ... and they're a No. 4 seed? Expect Louisville players to play the "no respect" card in this tournament. This is a talented, all-around team that has a powerful inside game with the 6-foot-8 Montrezl Harrell (14 PPG, 8 RPG), plus the ability to hit 3s with Russ Smith (18.2 PPG) and Wayne Blackshear, both higher than 40 percent from beyond the arc. The Cardinals are 17-7 ATS in nonconference games and the over is 14-3 in their last 17 neutral site games.
Michigan State (5-1)
You need a full complement of players and defense this time of year, and the Spartans have them both -- finally. Michigan State was hit hard by injuries much of the year, but the Spartans recently got to full strength for the first time in nearly two months. It certainly showed in the Big Ten tourney, as they won three in a row by 16, 8 and 14 points (3-0 ATS). This team plays dynamite defense for Tom Izzo and has a powerful frontcourt with 6-10 senior Adreian Payne (15.8 PPG, 7.4 RPG) and 6-6 junior Branden Dawson (10.4 PPG, 8.3 RPG). Dawson is back after missing nine games with a broken hand and shot 7-of-8 against Michigan in the Big 10 title game.
The backcourt leads this balanced team in scoring with sophomore Gary Harris (17 PPG) and senior Keith Appling (12.3 PPG). They have an impressive resume against top 25 teams, knocking off Kentucky (78-74), Ohio State (72-68) and Iowa (71-79 in OT). This is a very live (and underrated) No. 4 seed.
-- Wunderdog
Wichita State (15-1)
You have to win six games to cut down the nets, so why not put your trust in a team that has won 34 straight? Granted, everyone is talking about what a brutal road they have to even get through their regional, but success breeds success sometimes. Besides, if they continue to win, there could be a bandwagon effect that shades the money lines more in their favor the more they look like a team of destiny, so this 15-1 might not be so short after all.
Kentucky (40-1)
They were supposed to be a super team and haven't quite lived up to expectations, but they took Florida to the wire in the SEC title game and it's possible they could put it all together at the right time. If they steal Wichita State's No. 1 line and continue to gain momentum, their ML parlay could pay less than 40-1.
Baylor (100-1)
Last year, I had 50-1 on Baylor before the season and watched them not make the Big Dance and instead get hot and win the NIT. I might have to take a flier just in case they do it again on the big stage.
-- Tuley
<CENTER>
Here are the five best ATS bets from Insider's panel of handicappers. These are the teams they have the most confidence will cover the spread.
Tuley
Dayton +6 vs. Ohio State
Gonzaga +2 vs. OK State
New Mexico State +7 vs. San Diego State
Iowa/Tenn TBD vs. UMass
Providence +4 vs. North Carolina
Sevransky
Cincinnati -3 vs. Harvard
North Carolina -4 vs. Providence
North Dakota State +4 vs. Oklahoma
Arizona St +2 vs. Texas
Wisconsin -13.5 vs. Eastern Kentucky
Selvaggio
Oregon -5 vs. BYU
Cincinnati -3 vs. Harvard
OK State -2 vs. Gonzaga
Stanford +4.5 vs. New Mexico
Tulsa +9.5 vs. UCLA
<CENTER>
Here are the teams that our panel feel have the best chance of pulling an opening-game upset.
Tuley
No. 11 Providence over No. 6 North Carolina
No. 9 Kansas State over No. 8 Kentucky
No. 13 New Mexico State over No. 4 San Diego State
No. 8 Colorado ('dog) over No. 9 Pittsburgh
No. 11 Dayton over No. 6 Ohio State
Sevransky
No. 12 North Dakota State over No. 5 Oklahoma
No. 11 Iowa/No. 11 Tennessee winner over No. 6 UMass
No. 12 NC State over No. 5 Saint Louis
No. 10 Stanford over No. 7 New Mexico
No. 11 Nebraska over No. 6 Baylor
Selvaggio
No. 16 Texas Southern over No. 16 Cal Poly
No. 12 NDSU over No. 5 Oklahoma
No. 11 Iowa/No. 11 Tennessee winner over No. 6 UMass
No. 11 Nebraska over No. 6 Baylor
Wunderdog
No. 9 Gonzaga over No. 8 Oklahoma State
No. 11 Iowa/No. 11 Tennessee winner over No. 6 UMass
No. 9 Kansas State over No. 8 Kentucky
<CENTER>
Tuley
Dayton-Ohio State UNDER 130
Gonzaga-Oklahoma State OVER 141
UL-Lafayette-Creighton UNDER 157
Nebraska-Baylor OVER 131.5
Cincinnati-Harvard UNDER 123.5
Sevransky
Oregon-BYU UNDER 161.5
Pitt-Colorado UNDER 128.5
Oklahoma-North Dakota St OVER 152
Cincinnati-Harvard UNDER 123.5
North Carolina-Providence OVER 146
Selvaggio
Arizona State-Texas OVER 141.5
Wofford-Michigan OVER 126
Wunderdog
Manhattan-Louisville UNDER 142.5
NC Central-Iowa State UNDER 144
Tulsa-UCLA UNDER 146
Mercer-Duke UNDER 141
Eastern Kentucky-Kansas UNDER 146
[h=3]Thursday and Friday ATS picks[/h]
Best bets noted with an asterisk.
[h=3][/h]
[h=3]South | West | Midwest | East[/h]
[h=3]South | West | Midwest | East[/h]
[h=3]South Regional[/h]
[h=3]No. 1 Florida Gators versus No. 16 Albany Great Danes[/h]
LVH line: Florida minus-21.5
PickCenter consensus pick: N/A
Florida is the No. 1 overall seed with its 32-2 record, but the Gators are barely above average with a 16-13-1 ATS record and an ATS 8-7 away from home, including 2-2 on neutral courts. With their gaudy record and reputation, the Gators often have to lay a lot of points and do enough to win comfortably, but it isn't always enough to cover. This is a big number, so that could happen again. Albany is a middle-of-the-road team at 19-14 but got hot at the right time, as it went 7-1 down the stretch, including 4-0 in the America East tournament (those were the Great Danes' only lined games, so they're 4-0 ATS). Albany is great at getting to the free throw line, and this ATS result could come down to how the refs call fouls when the Great Danes get the ball in the paint.
ATS pick: Albany
[h=3]No. 8 Colorado Buffaloes versus No. 9 Pittsburgh Panthers[/h]
LVH line: Pittsburgh minus-5.5
PickCenter consensus pick: 61 percent picked Pitt
This is an intriguing matchup, especially when 8-9 games usually feature well-matched teams with the point spread closer to pick'em, yet Pittsburgh is a 5.5-point favorite here (and we discussed in the Vegas Rankings that the Panthers are rated even better). However, for my personal pick, I have to go with the underdog Buffs. In some ways, these are mirror teams of each other, both without a superstar and both relying on team defense. Colorado has had to overcome more with the midseason loss of leading scorer Spencer Dinwiddie. They could have folded, but they kept battling to get in the NCAA field. Pitt doesn't have that excuse, yet they tend to play a lot of close games (including four overtimes) and are 12-17-2 ATS, so I wouldn't trust them to cover this number. Give me Colorado in a game that I feel should be more like your typical pick'em 8-9 matchup.
ATS pick: Colorado*
LVH line: VCU minus-6.5
PickCenter consensus pick: 60 percent picked VCU
We all know about VCU's defense and its overall NCAA tournament success under head coach Shaka Smart. But here's the thing: Stephen F. Austin (I know a lot of you are saying "who?") plays the same way with pressure defense and could be in position to pull one of those 12 vs. 5 upsets that everyone looks for. Every year, there's always that game (at least one) where I pick a team ATS but just don't have the confidence to predict the outright upset and end up kicking myself later (this could be that game this year). SFA has won 28 straight games, but my main reservation is their strength of schedule since their biggest win is against Towson. Can we really trust them to handle the big step up in class? I think they have enough to cover the number here.
ATS pick: Stephen F. Austin
LVH line: UCLA minus-9
PickCenter consensus pick: 52 percent picked Tulsa
Tulsa comes in with an 11-game winning streak, including winning Conference USA, but if you look back at their past performances, you see that their three games against NCAA tournament-caliber competition were losses to Wichita State, Creighton and Oklahoma, all by double digits. Tulsa has some good guards and shooters, but it just looks like it's too much to ask for them to keep up with UCLA, which averages 81.8 points per game.
ATS pick: UCLA
LVH line: Ohio State minus-6
PickCenter consensus pick: 53 percent picked Dayton
Dayton has been dying for this matchup all year, and now gets to face the big university in its state -- in the NCAA tournament of all places. Of course, everyone wants to win, so we can't just rely on that motivation for a pick. This is as much a pick against Ohio State, which has underachieved all year with a 15-18 ATS mark and a 12-17 ATS (41.4 percent) record as a favorite, as it is a pick for Dayton. Dayton doesn't have a star player, but it has a lot of depth and is able to run-and-gun. Ohio State has had problems with that style this year and isn't a very good shooting team itself. The Buckeyes are a prime candidate for an early exit.
ATS pick: Dayton*
LVH line: Syracuse minus-12.5
PickCenter consensus pick: 63 percent picked Western Michigan
The Orange haven't been playing as well lately as they did when they got off to a 25-0 start, but they're still a pretty good team. The big spread is tempting, but I don't think Western Michigan is a good enough match to stick with Syracuse's 2-3 zone. Shayne Whittington is Western Michigan's big man inside, but the Broncos turn the ball over too much and aren't proficient enough from 3-point range to keep the Orange from collapsing on Whittington. If Syracuse also takes away David Brown, it'll be a rout, but even if WMU has some success, I don't see them having enough to stay inside this number.
ATS pick: Syracuse
LVH line: New Mexico minus-4
PickCenter consensus pick: 63 percent picked New Mexico
I liked the favored Lobos more when the line opened at 2.5, but I still think they're the right side. They do everything right, and I have them going to at least the Sweet 16 in most of my brackets (which would also mean a win over No. 2 seed Kansas over the weekend). Stanford has four players averaging double figures, but I'll still take the Lobos' trio of Cameron Bairstow (20.3 PPG), Kendall Williams (16.4 PPG) and Alex Kirk (13.6 PPG). New Mexico does everything well, and a big advantage should be its ability to keep Stanford off the offensive glass and minimize second-chance putbacks, while converting them on the other end.
ATS pick: New Mexico
[h=3]No. 2 Kansas Jayhawks versus No. 15 Eastern Kentucky Colonels[/h]
LVH line: Kansas minus-15
PickCenter consensus pick: 62 percent picked Eastern Kentucky
The Jayhawks earned this seed mostly off the regular season before losing big man Joel Embiid. Even without him, they should dominate EKU on the boards. But -- and this is a big but -- Eastern Kentucky can shoot the lights out, making 39 percent of its 3-point attempts this season. If the Colonels can do that Friday, they have a shot against a Kansas team that is 2-3 without Embiid. The good thing about this type of scenario is if the Colonels are hot early, they can stick around all game and stay within the number; however, even if they struggle early and get down big, they still have the ability to knock down some late 3's and get a back-door cover if Kansas is coasting late.
ATS pick: Eastern Kentucky*
[h=3]West Regional[/h]
[h=3]No. 1 Arizona Wildcats versus No. 16 Weber State Wildcats[/h]
LVH line: Arizona minus-19.5
PickCenter consensus pick: 55 percent picked Weber State
This line has been as high as 21.5, so someone out there is betting Weber State (and ESPN's PickCenter had 55 percent of bets on Weber State as of Monday afternoon), but I'm not biting. Weber State is efficient on offense, but it hasn't faced a defense as good as Arizona this season. In fact, the Wildcats' only game against the Pac-12 was against UCLA, not known for their defense, and Weber State lost by 23. Arizona should pretty much be able to name the score here.
ATS pick: Arizona
LVH line: Oklahoma State minus-2
PickCenter consensus pick: 68 percent picked Oklahoma State
This is one of the best opening-game matchups, with the 9-seed being favored because of everyone jumping on the Marcus Smart bandwagon as Oklahoma State is 5-2 since his return from suspension. But give me Gonzaga as an underdog -- it's not often we see them in this role anymore -- as I believe they have the more complete team against the inconsistent Cowboys.
ATS pick: Gonzaga*
LVH line: Oklahoma minus-4
PickCenter consensus pick: 62 percent picked North Dakota State
Now here's a more consistent team from Oklahoma. I'm not going to knock North Dakota State because I'm sure I'd like them against a lot of other teams in the field, and I'm sure they're going to be a popular 12 vs. 5 play in brackets -- and they should be, as they take good shots (leading the nation at 50.9 percent field goal percentage), play good defense and hit the boards. However, they are stepping up in class and obviously the oddsmakers have taken a lot of value out of the underdog, with Oklahoma only having to lay four points. A few years ago, this matchup would have been a double-digit spread and much more attractive for the 'dog.
ATS pick: Oklahoma
LVH line: San Diego State minus-7
PickCenter consensus pick: 56 percent picked San Diego State
San Diego State lost two of three games against New Mexico this season, including the Mountain West title game, but the Aztecs would be making a big mistake if they think this will be a cakewalk against the "other" school from the Land of Enchantment. To pull a March Madness upset, you usually need hot 3-point shooting or a big man to control the paint. Well, NMSU has 7-foot-5 (yep, you read that right) Sim Bhullar, along with two other big men at 6-10. New Mexico State split its season series against its in-state rival and has a great shot to stick with San Diego State here, as the Aztecs haven't been scoring well -- a low-scoring game always bodes well when you're getting this many points.
ATS pick: New Mexico State*
LVH line: Baylor minus-3.5
PickCenter consensus pick: 63 percent picked Baylor
Disclosure: I have a love-hate relationship with Baylor. I really like its players, and the Bears were my long shot pick to win the NCAA last year at 50-1. They were on the bubble all year and ended up settling for an NIT berth, after which they then ran off five straight wins for the title (which pays zero on NCAA futures). However, I think they're getting hot at the right time again. Nebraska has been playing its best basketball lately, too, but overall I think Baylor will win the battle of the boards with 7-1 Isaiah Austin and cover the short number.
ATS pick: Baylor*
LVH line: Creighton minus-13.5
PickCenter consensus pick: 59 percent picked LA-Lafayette
Doug McDermott (26.9 points per game) seems to show up every night and leads a Creighton offense attack that hits an impressive 42 percent of its 3-point shots. There will probably come a game this tournament when that ends, but Creighton should still have enough to roll over UL-Lafayette even on an off night. The Ragin' Cajuns (they win the battle of the nicknames) are undersized, and while they actually average more points than Creighton (81.4 to 79.5), their size is a liability on defense and especially on the boards.
ATS pick: Creighton
LVH line: Oregon minus-6.5
PickCenter consensus pick: 65 percent picked Oregon
If BYU hadn't lost Kyle Collinsworth in the WCC title game loss here in Vegas, I might actually be on the Cougars here. This should be a track meet -- just like most of Oregon's football games -- as they score a lot but also give up a lot. The problem with BYU is the Cougars do the same, as they allow 77 points per game and even more (83.4 PPG) away from home. Without Collinsworth, I don't see BYU being able to keep up with Oregon's pace.
ATS pick: Oregon
LVH line: Wisconsin minus-13.5
PickCenter consensus pick: 58 percent picked Wisconsin
Wisconsin battled for the Big Ten title and was in the discussion to be a No. 1 seed, so in a way this number looks a little short -- even more reason I can't pull the trigger on this underdog. With a potent offense, the Badgers don't rely as much on their defense as we're used to seeing. In years past, the fact that American runs a deliberate offense would play right into this being a low-scoring game and the 13.5 points having a greater chance to come into play. But with this year's Badgers team, I'll stick to my other underdog plays.
ATS pick: Wisconsin
[h=3]East Regional[/h]
[h=3]No. 1 Virginia Cavaliers versus No. 16 Coastal Carolina Chanticleers[/h]
LVH line: Virginia minus-21.5
PickCenter consensus pick: 58 percent picked Coastal Carolina
Virginia dominated the ACC regular season and won the conference tournament, as well, yet Tony Bennett's Cavaliers are the most anonymous No. 1 seed in recent memory. Leading scorer Malcolm Brogdon averages fewer than 13 points per game, and Virginia isn't going to send anybody to the NBA this coming offseason. That anonymity has resulted in a strong point-spread mark in nearly every role, although the Cavs haven't covered a 20-plus point spread all year, and could easily look past the Chanticleers. However, I've got Coastal Carolina ranked as the 67th-best team in a 68-team field. They lost by 29 in their last "step-up-in-class" game at Clemson and can't be expected to compete here.
ATS pick: Virginia
LVH line: Memphis minus-3
PickCenter consensus pick: 56 percent picked Memphis
Josh Pastner has had the Memphis job for five years, but I'm still waiting for him to actually outcoach somebody. The Tigers have all the makings of a tourney sleeper, with four strong senior guards and a pair of low-post studs in Shaq Goodwin and Austin Nichols.
But Memphis has struggled mightily away from home in recent weeks, notching only one cover in six tries, and that came in an OT loss at UConn. George Washington's lack of quality depth was a major factor in its A-10 Tourney defeat at the hands of VCU, but the Colonials will be rested and ready here, primed to pull off the minor upset.
ATS pick: George Washington
LVH line: Cincinnati minus-3
PickCenter consensus pick: 52 percent picked Harvard
Ivy League entrants have been an NCAA tournament point-spread disaster area for more than a decade (4-12 ATS in their last 16 tourney openers). The Crimson did pull off an upset over New Mexico last year but got blasted in their next game against Arizona. And Tommy Amaker's squad was an underdog only twice this year, losing and failing to cover in step-up games against Colorado and UConn (the only tourney teams they faced).
Cincinnati doesn't have enough offense after Sean Kilpatrick to make a deep run in this tourney, but the Bearcats were good enough to beat the likes of Pitt, Louisville and Memphis away from home. I like Cincy's defense more than Harvard's balanced scoring.
ATS pick: Cincinnati*
LVH line: Michigan State minus-14
PickCenter consensus pick: 62 percent picked Michigan State
I had high hopes for finding point-spread bargains in support of Michigan State come tourney time, but that simply hasn't worked out. Many experts are picking Tom Izzo's squad to make a run to the Final Four, and the finally healthy Spartans have national championship-caliber upside -- as clearly evidenced by the fact that the Vegas casinos have Michigan State as the No. 2 choice (behind Florida) to win it all.
There's simply no value on Michigan State at the current numbers, including with this inflated point spread. Delaware hung tough on the highway in spread-covering losses at Ohio State and Villanova back in November and is capable of avoiding an ugly blowout here.
ATS pick: Delaware
LVH line: North Carolina minus-4
PickCenter consensus pick: 54 percent picked UNC
Providence is fairly high on my list of "bet against" teams in the Big Dance. The Friars expended maximum energy winning the Big East Tourney last weekend -- very bad news for a team with no depth whatsoever -- and Ed Cooley used a six-man rotation in the title game, with four of his five starters playing all 40 minutes. North Carolina's early exit from the ACC tournament was no surprise -- Roy Williams has a long track record of conference tournament failures followed by NCAA tournament success. The Tar Heels won 12 straight down the stretch and are loaded with NBA-caliber talent. They are primed to make a deep run.
ATS pick: North Carolina*
[h=3]No. 3 Iowa State Cyclones versus No. 14 North Carolina Central Eagles[/h]
LVH line: Iowa State minus-9
PickCenter consensus pick: 51 percent picked NC Central
I'm in no rush to lay points with teams that won their conference tournament last weekend, leaving them physically and emotionally exhausted, especially when those teams are facing an opponent not likely to excite them. The Cyclones will be hard-pressed to match their efforts from their last four games -- all wins and covers against fellow tournament teams.
North Carolina Central won at NC State in overtime back in November and Jeremy Ingram's 37 point effort kept things relatively close in an 11-point loss at Wichita State. Don't be surprised if the Eagles hang around in this game.
ATS pick: North Carolina Central
LVH line: UConn minus-4.5
PickCenter consensus pick: 59 percent picked St. Joe's
UConn has the hunger that I'm looking for in an opening-round matchup after sanctions cost the Huskies their postseason last year. UConn has the guard play that I'm looking for, as well, with experienced veterans Shabazz Napier and Ryan Boatright making excellent decisions with the basketball. And the Huskies are a top-10 team in free throw shooting percentage, a key factor in this "short favorite" point spread range.
St. Joe's hasn't won an NCAA tournament game since Jameer Nelson and Delonte West were their starting guards back in 2004. They'll be hard-pressed to match their A-10 tourney success from last weekend.
ATS pick: Connecticut
LVH line: Villanova minus-16.5
PickCenter consensus pick: 64 percent picked Milwaukee
Milwaukee made me money during its improbable run to earn the Horizon League automatic bid. Rob Jeter's squad showed mental toughness in bunches, earning hard-fought wins on the road at Green Bay and then at Wright State as part of a late season 4-0 SU run as underdogs.
Villanova was an elite-level ATS squad this year entering the Big Dance on a 21-9 point-spread run (the third-best winning percentage in the country behind Tulsa and Wichita State). That includes an 11-2 point spread record as double-digit favorites. But that extended point-spread success ensures that Wildcats backers won't be getting any point spread bargains this coming weekend.
ATS pick: Milwaukee
[h=3]Midwest Regional[/h]
[h=3]No. 1 Wichita State Shockers versus No. 16 Cal Poly/No. 16 Texas Southern winner[/h]
LVH line: N/A
PickCenter consensus pick: N/A
Update coming.
ATS pick: NA
LVH line: Kentucky minus-4.5
PickCenter consensus pick: 61 percent picked Kentucky
Kentucky is arguably the best No. 8 seed in NCAA tournament history. The Wildcats were the preseason No. 1, a clear indication of their talent level. John Calipari has as many as eight future NBA players on his roster, including projected top-5 pick Julius Randle. But they've been wildly inconsistent all year -- a team that could reach the Final Four or get bounced in the first round without any shock here in Vegas.
I'm inclined to pick the latter of the two as the more likely possibility. If Kentucky gets caught looking ahead to a potential matchup against Wichita State over the weekend, they're on upset alert. Kansas State got beaten up down the stretch against the quality depth of the Big 12, but it was good enough to beat five of the six other Big 12 schools that made the tourney.
ATS pick: Kansas State
LVH line: St. Louis minus-2.5
PickCenter consensus pick: N/A
The Billikens were never a great team, even when they were 25-2 and ranked in the top 10. St. Louis is stout defensively and has been remarkably adept (or lucky) at winning close games; 7-0 SU in games decided by four points or less or in overtime. But Jim Crews' squad has been a substantial money loser in Vegas all year long, a woeful 10-19 ATS -- the single worst point-spread mark for any team in the tournament.
NC State has been facing vastly superior competition in the ACC this year. The Wolfpack are riding a boatload of momentum off a strong conference tourney run and a dominant effort in their first Four game. And the Wolfpack will have the best player on the floor in sophomore forward T.J. Warren, who is riding an 18-game streak of 20-plus point games. This No. 12 seed is flat-out better than the No. 5 seed.
ATS pick: NC State
LVH line: Louisville minus-16
PickCenter consensus pick: 71 percent picked Louisville
Here in Las Vegas, Louisville is power rated as the second best team in the country, right there with Florida and Arizona. Vegas is much better than the tournament selection committee at determining where teams actually rank in comparison to one another, and Louisville is clearly a serious threat to win it all ... if the Cardinals can survive this brutal Midwest Region.
Rick Pitino will face off against former assistant Steve Masiello here. Masiello's Jaspers have a legitimate star in George Beamon, but they've yet to see an elite-level defense like the one they'll face here yet. Manhattan has decent depth, but there's no way I'm stepping in front of the Cardinals right now.
ATS pick: Louisville
LVH line: N/A
PickCenter consensus pick: N/A
Update coming.
ATS pick: N/A
PickCenter consensus pick: 60 percent picked Mercer
Coach K rarely has a deep bench, and Duke's 2014 squad is no exception to that rule. The Blue Devils' lack of quality depth has been a major factor during their current point spread free fall, notching ATS wins only twice in their last 10 games. The Blue Devils have been wearing down late in games and have been outscored 76-47 in the last five minutes of their last five contests.
Duke failed to cover in its opener against Albany last year and lost outright to Lehigh in its opener in 2012; not exactly a point spread powerhouse for their supporters come tourney time. Mercer is a strong enough offensive team to trade baskets here for extended stretches, and fellow Atlantic Sun Conference squad Florida Gulf Coast pulled off a pair of major upsets in last year's tourney.
ATS pick: Mercer*
LVH line: Texas minus-1.5
PickCenter consensus pick: 60 percent picked Texas
Texas has consistently underachieved in the Big Dance throughout the Rick Barnes era. And this very young team didn't play well away from home down the stretch, cashing once in its last eight ATS tries in neutral or hostile environments.
The Longhorns enjoy a matchup edge in the low post against many opponents, but Arizona State has 7-2 behemoth Jordan Bachynski manning the paint. The underdog Sun Devils have the edge at point guard with ultraquick Jahii Carson primed to give the Longhorns trouble in Milwaukee.
ATS pick: Arizona State
LVH line: Michigan minus-15.5
PickCenter consensus pick: 56 percent picked Michigan
The Wolverines went 5-0 ATS on their way to the national championship game last year before coming up short against Louisville. This year, they've been an overvalued commodity in recent weeks; just 2-6 ATS in their last eight tries at minus-3 or higher, repeatedly failing to extend their margin of victory in the games that they win.
Wofford suffered a handful of early-season blowout losses, but the Terriers haven't lost a single game by more than 15 points since November. On their last visit to the Big Dance, the Terriers covered the spread in an eight-point loss to BYU, and their excellent perimeter defense gives them a decent shot to hang around for a long while in this one.
ATS pick: Wofford
[h=3]PJ Walsh's system bets[/h]
In last week's conference tournament betting guide, we noted that public bettors traditionally play overs (opposed to unders) in hopes of seeing an exciting basketball game. Now that Selection Sunday has passed and the official 2014 NCAA tournament bracket has been released, more public money will hit the college basketball betting market than at any other time throughout the season. With this in mind, we developed an NCAA tournament betting system that not only exploits the public trend toward overs, but one that has been historically profitable with sound betting theory, as well.
Specifically, we started with a theory that opening-round games involving highly seeded teams could trend toward the under. Because these games are generally mismatches, it makes sense to expect high seeds to blow out the lower seeds, leading them to run out the clock late in games instead of trying to score. By "taking the air out of the ball," top teams shorten the game, reduce scoring and lead to more games going under the total.
To test this theory, we turned to our Bet Labs data analysis software and created an over/under system that isolated first round NCAA tournament games since 2005. We then applied Bet Labs' Seed Filter and instantly found that our theory had value.
The table below summarizes the results of our analysis. <!-- begin inline 3 -->[h=4]NCAA tournament opening-round over/under results, since 2005[/h]
| Seeds | Under Results | Units Won | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| * Closing lines from Pinnacle were used to determine records. ** Units Won is the amount of money a betting system won or lost after factoring in juice. In the example above, a $100 bettor would have won $2,378 ($100 x 23.78 units) following the system. *** To calculate ROI, the return of an investment (or in this case, the profit earned from the sports betting system) is divided by the cost of the investment. | |||
| 1-4 | 86-57 (60.1%) | +23.78 units | +16.6% |
| 5-8 | 70-70 (50%) | -4.62 units | -3.3% |
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<!-- end inline 3 -->Not only has this system been profitable over the nine NCAA tournaments we analyzed, it has also produced positive units won in seven of those tournaments with 2007 (minus-0.56 units) and 2009 (minus-1.37 units) being the only losing years.
Overvalued/undervalued NCAA tournament teams
We developed a model that combines betting market probabilities, our proprietary power ratings and expected randomness to simulate the entire NCAA tournament. We then ran 1 million simulations and compared those results with current NCAA tournament futures from LVH to determine the most overvalued and undervalued championship contenders.
Overvalued
1. No. 1 Michigan State
2. No. 1 Florida
3. No. 2 Kansas
At 5-1, Michigan State is by far the most overvalued team according to our model, with our simulation results giving them only a 2.6 percent chance to cut down the nets.1. No. 1 Michigan State
2. No. 1 Florida
3. No. 2 Kansas
Undervalued
1. No. 1 Virginia
2. No. 1 Wichita State
3. No. 2 Villanova
At 10.2 percent, our model gives Virginia the fourth-best odds to win the NCAA tournament title, suggesting their current futures price of 18-1 is a solid value play.
Best and worst coaches to bet on
Coaching is a huge part of college basketball, so bettors should be aware of the men in charge of each team. Below is a list of the best and worst coaches to bet on in the NCAA tourney this year and their corresponding ATS tourney records.
<!-- begin inline 4 -->[h=4]Most profitable coaches to bet on (since 2005)[/h]Results based on units won.
| Coach | Team | ATS Record | Units Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| * Closing lines from Pinnacle were used to determine ATS Records and Units Won. | |||
| Sean Miller | Arizona | 14-2 | +11.27 units |
| Billy Donovan | Florida | 18-7 | +10.24 units |
| John Beilein | Michigan | 11-3 | +7.86 units |
| Shaka Smart | VCU | 8-2 | +5.51 units |
| Roy Williams | North Carolina | 16-10 | +5.18 units |
| John Calipari | Kentucky | 19-13 | +5.08 units |
| Gregg Marshall | Wichita State | 7-2 | +4.67 units |
| Rick Pitino | Louisville | 14-9 | +4.26 units |
| Chris Mack | Xavier | 5-1 | +3.88 units |
| Mark Gottfried | NC State | 5-1 | +3.85 units |
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[h=4]Least profitable coaches to bet on (since 2005)[/h]Results based on units won.
| Coach | Team | ATS Record | Units Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| * Closing lines from Pinnacle were used to determine ATS Records and Units Won. | |||
| Jay Wright | Villanova | 5-12 | -7.18 units |
| Jamie Dixon | Pittsburgh | 5-11 | -6.21 units |
| Mike Krzyzewski | Duke | 9-13 | -4.50 units |
| Thad Matta | Ohio State | 10-14 | -4.33 units |
| Rick Barnes | Texas | 6-10 | -4.22 units |
| Mark Few | Gonzaga | 6-10 | -4.17 units |
| Steve Alford | UCLA | 1-5 | -4.11 units |
| Dave Rose | BYU | 3-6 | -3.15 units |
| Scott Drew | Baylor | 4-5 | -1.31 units |
| Bruce Weber | Kansas State | 3-4 | -1.31 units |
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<CENTER>[h=3]Jay Kornegay's top public teams[/h]</CENTER>
The 10 teams, according to Kornegay, lead bookmaker at the LVH, and his staff, that are the most popular teams to wager on as the tourney begins.
1. VCU
2. Arizona
3. Kansas
4. Wichita State
5. North Dakota State
6. Harvard
7. Florida
8. Michigan State
9. Gonzaga
10. San Diego State
<CENTER>[h=3]Alan Boston's bracket according to Vegas[/h]</CENTER>
The NCAA selection committee has its way of picking a bracket, and I have mine. Their way has certain flaws, I believe, while mine is a pragmatic approach based on my power ratings.
My ratings are based on my 25 years of betting experience and focus on the overall strength of a college basketball program over time. I also incorporate if a team has a new coach, the recruiting class, a team's overall experience (especially at point guard) and several other factors. I'm constantly tweaking the teams' ratings over the course of the season, but I've been doing this for long enough that my ratings going into the tournament aren't that far from my initial ratings before the season.
In compiling my bracket, I simply ran down the top teams in my power ratings and grouped them by seed. For example, my top-rated team is Louisville; after that, I have Arizona, Florida and Michigan State. Those four teams are my No. 1 seeds, and so on.
Here is my version of the 2014 NCAA tourney bracket (what the bracket should look like):
SOUTH
1 Louisville
16 Albany/Mount St. Mary's
8 Harvard
9 Oregon
5 Ohio State
12 Tulsa
4 Michigan
13 New Mexico State
6 St. Louis
11 St. John's
3 Syracuse
14 Western Michigan
7 Cincinnati
10 Stanford
2 Wichita State
15 Weber State
Most overseed teams (compared to actual bracket)
Oregon, Cincinnati
Most underseeded teams
Harvard, St. John's
----
WEST
1 Florida
16 Texas So./Coastal Carolina
8 Memphis
9 Xavier
5 Kentucky
12 North Dakota State
4 Pitt
13 UNC Central
6 New Mexico
11 Florida State
3 Iowa
14 Delaware
7 Tennessee
10 Wisconsin-Green Bay
2 Villanova
15 American
Most overseed teams (compared to actual bracket)
None
Most underseeded teams
Wisconsin-Green Bay, Florida State, Iowa, Xavier, Tennessee
----
MIDWEST
1 Arizona
16 Milwaukee
8 La. Tech
9 Iowa State
5 UCLA
12 St. Joseph's
4 Wisconsin
13 Stephen F. Austin
6 San Diego State
11 Providence
3 Creighton
14 Eastern Kentucky
7 Oklahoma State
10 Minnesota
2 Duke
15 UL-Lafayette
Most overseed teams (compared to actual bracket)
Wisconsin, Iowa State
Most underseeded teams
Minnesota, St. Joseph's, La. Tech
----
EAST
1 Michigan State
16 Cal Poly
8 SMU
9 Southern Miss
5 VCU
12 LSU/Baylor
4 Kansas
13 Mercer
6 North Carolina
11 Utah/BYU
3 Gonzaga
14 Manhattan
7 UConn
10 Oklahoma
2 Virginia
15 Wofford
Most overseed teams (compared to actual bracket)
Oklahoma, Kansas, Baylor
Most underseeded teams
SMU, Southern Miss, LSU
