[h=2]2014 AL West Preview[/h] Joe Peta
In the case of this year’s out-of-consensus call, I’m having a little trouble mustering the same level of conviction. So instead of donning a megaphone and shouting from the lectern, I think I’ll just whisper this and get the hell off stage.
The Seattle Mariners are going to win the AL West in 2014.
I think one of the reasons I’m having a small degree of discomfort getting behind the Mariners pick is that I’m subconsciously swayed by the sabermetric community. Dave Cameron, Jeff Sullivan, and Dave Schoenfield are three of the most visible contributors to the on-line baseball content and they all happen to be Mariners fans. As a result they are all, usually without exception, hyper-critical of Seattle and especially its front office. Some of that criticism from the seemingly haphazard construction of the roster that never seems to address their true weakness (more on that in a second) to the trading of Adam Jones for Erik Bedard to the consistent misuse of bullpen personnel, is certainly justified, but I wonder if some of the sarcastic “glee” that accompanies some of the commentary simply arises from being in love with the subject.
The Mariners front office should get some credit for trying. Scratch that. Not just trying but credit for what they’ve succeeded in creating. In the last preview, I noted the Tigers had, by far, the best starting rotation in baseball last year. This stat helps illustrate that: The Tigers were the only team in the American League with two starting pitchers (minimum 100 innings pitched) in the top 7 of league ERA (Sanchez and Scherzer.) If you expand that list one more spot to the top 8, another team joins the list – the Seattle Mariners (Iwakuma and Hernandez). Like the Tigers due, Iwakuma and Hernandez’ results are supported by their underlying skill sets. So why do I think the Mariners will allow less runs than last year while I warned of a backslide by the Tigers? Because the Mariners also trotted out, for more than 300 innings last year, two of the worst pitcher in the AL in Aaron (that’s pronounced A-A-Ron for all my fellow Key and Peele fans) Harang and Joe Saunders. (Other things to whisper in this piece – Saunders is a Virginia Tech grad. Sigh.)
It doesn’t matter how negative you are on Iwakuma’ early-season replacement as he recovers from hand injury, or how much you want to mock the Mariners front office for recruiting Scott Baker to the rotation I absolutely guarantee you that the combination of Baker and Blake Beavan (or whoever else they put in this parlay) will give up materially less runs over 300 innings than last year’s combination of Harang and Saunders. They allowed 198 total runs in 303 innings for an astounding RA of 5.88.
An improvement in starting pitching will certainly reduce the amount of runs Seattle allows year-over-year but it’s only part of the pitching equation. What about the Mariners bullpen? Providing their critics/fans with fodder for their misery, en route to a 19-29 record in 1-run games the Mariners bullpen was the second-worst in baseball allowing runs at a 4.87 clip per nine innings – over 505 innings. Which means that when manager Eric Wedge went to the mound to take the ball from Harang or Saunders, he essentially replaced them with different versions of themselves.
Regular readers of my writing know how volatile bullpen performance is year to year and how easy it is for a team to replace ineffective parts, and how improving the league’s worst bullpen can be easiest way to go from worst to first (see Diamondbacks, Arizona, circa 2011.) But here’s the thing; unlike Saunders and Harang, the bullpen wasn’t anywhere close to as bad as the results reflected. As stated, based on runs allowed, the Mariners had the second worst bullpen in baseball. However, based on expected runs allowed – a regression formula that forms the basis for SIERA, or Skill-Interactive Earned Run Average – the Mariners move so far up the ranks that you actually have to change the category. They’re no longer the second worst, based on skill sets they’re the 13[SUP]th[/SUP] best.
Don’t think it’s possible? Well there is nothing a reliever can do that’s more important in high-leverage situations than strike batters out. Seattle’s bullpen was 4[SUP]th[/SUP] in K-rate in 2013. They did walk too many people (25[SUP]th[/SUP] in the league at 10.1% of batters) and their ground ball tendencies were merely middling. But put that together and the Mariners had a league-average bullpen that should have had an ERA of about 3.37. They could pitch exactly the same as last year and give up anywhere from 1.25 to 1.5 less runs per nine innings. Over the 505 innings the bullpen pitched that’s an amazing reduction in runs allowed of at least 70 and perhaps (gulp) 100 runs.
I’m starting to warm up to this call.
Let’s look at the offense. The Baltimore Orioles, paced by Chris Davis’ 53 dingers, led the majors in home runs. In 2013, fourteen different players hit 30 or more home runs and none of them played for the Mariners. Therefore, I can almost guarantee this next sentence is going to stun all but the most statistics-obsessed fan: Last year, behind only the Orioles, the team with the second most home runs in the majors was the Seattle Mariners. So why were they 22[SUP]nd[/SUP] in runs scored? There was some negative cluster luck but even factoring for that league-wide, they still tied for just 18[SUP]th[/SUP] in adjusted runs scored.
The real reason is the same shortfall which has bedeviled Seattle for years – they were 26[SUP]th[/SUP] in on-base percentage. That actually represented a massive improvement because the Mariners had been last in on-base percentage the three prior years and hadn’t finished out of the bottom three since 2007.
That’s why the addition of Robinson Cano and his lifetime .355 on-base percentage is so exciting for the Mariners outlook. Cano, of course, would have improved every team in the majors leagues except possibly the Red Sox, but his addition to the Mariners line up is especially crucial given their dearth of on-base skills. Fortunately, for Seattle, it’s not just Cano. Corey Hart and Logan Morrison have also been added to the lineup replacing Raul Ibanez and Kendrys Morales and while they may not be able to replicate their 52 home runs, it’s certainly within the realm of possibility. However, based on their lifetime on-base percentages, it’s a near guarantee that while they might not clear the bases as often, they’ll certainly be on the basepaths more often. And that, more than anything, is what the Mariners need. They certainly have flaws on offense but they’re going to score a lot more runs this year.
You know what? I’ve come around to this call. Sometimes you have to take the Tom Cruise route, jump up and down on a couch, and tell the whole world. You have to channel your inner-Joel Goodman from Risky Business, don the sunglasses, and throw caution to the wind. Sometimes you just have to say,
The Seattle Mariners are going to win the AL West in 2014!
AL West Preview
Two years ago in the inaugural 30 Teams in 30 Days series, I projected the San Diego Padres, coming off a 71-win season to win the NL West. It stood as the biggest surprise of the series and though the Padres rallied late in the season to stamp the Over 73 ½ win ticket a winner, that pick was wrong in so many more ways than it was right. Last season the big surprise was a call for the Cleveland Indians, coming off a 67-win season to make the playoffs. That pick, in contrast to the Padres call a year earlier was a rousing success. In both cases, although the projection was model-driven, I strongly supported the narrative and expressed my conviction for both of those out-of-consensus calls in my writings. In the case of this year’s out-of-consensus call, I’m having a little trouble mustering the same level of conviction. So instead of donning a megaphone and shouting from the lectern, I think I’ll just whisper this and get the hell off stage.
The Seattle Mariners are going to win the AL West in 2014.
I think one of the reasons I’m having a small degree of discomfort getting behind the Mariners pick is that I’m subconsciously swayed by the sabermetric community. Dave Cameron, Jeff Sullivan, and Dave Schoenfield are three of the most visible contributors to the on-line baseball content and they all happen to be Mariners fans. As a result they are all, usually without exception, hyper-critical of Seattle and especially its front office. Some of that criticism from the seemingly haphazard construction of the roster that never seems to address their true weakness (more on that in a second) to the trading of Adam Jones for Erik Bedard to the consistent misuse of bullpen personnel, is certainly justified, but I wonder if some of the sarcastic “glee” that accompanies some of the commentary simply arises from being in love with the subject.
The Mariners front office should get some credit for trying. Scratch that. Not just trying but credit for what they’ve succeeded in creating. In the last preview, I noted the Tigers had, by far, the best starting rotation in baseball last year. This stat helps illustrate that: The Tigers were the only team in the American League with two starting pitchers (minimum 100 innings pitched) in the top 7 of league ERA (Sanchez and Scherzer.) If you expand that list one more spot to the top 8, another team joins the list – the Seattle Mariners (Iwakuma and Hernandez). Like the Tigers due, Iwakuma and Hernandez’ results are supported by their underlying skill sets. So why do I think the Mariners will allow less runs than last year while I warned of a backslide by the Tigers? Because the Mariners also trotted out, for more than 300 innings last year, two of the worst pitcher in the AL in Aaron (that’s pronounced A-A-Ron for all my fellow Key and Peele fans) Harang and Joe Saunders. (Other things to whisper in this piece – Saunders is a Virginia Tech grad. Sigh.)
It doesn’t matter how negative you are on Iwakuma’ early-season replacement as he recovers from hand injury, or how much you want to mock the Mariners front office for recruiting Scott Baker to the rotation I absolutely guarantee you that the combination of Baker and Blake Beavan (or whoever else they put in this parlay) will give up materially less runs over 300 innings than last year’s combination of Harang and Saunders. They allowed 198 total runs in 303 innings for an astounding RA of 5.88.
An improvement in starting pitching will certainly reduce the amount of runs Seattle allows year-over-year but it’s only part of the pitching equation. What about the Mariners bullpen? Providing their critics/fans with fodder for their misery, en route to a 19-29 record in 1-run games the Mariners bullpen was the second-worst in baseball allowing runs at a 4.87 clip per nine innings – over 505 innings. Which means that when manager Eric Wedge went to the mound to take the ball from Harang or Saunders, he essentially replaced them with different versions of themselves.
Regular readers of my writing know how volatile bullpen performance is year to year and how easy it is for a team to replace ineffective parts, and how improving the league’s worst bullpen can be easiest way to go from worst to first (see Diamondbacks, Arizona, circa 2011.) But here’s the thing; unlike Saunders and Harang, the bullpen wasn’t anywhere close to as bad as the results reflected. As stated, based on runs allowed, the Mariners had the second worst bullpen in baseball. However, based on expected runs allowed – a regression formula that forms the basis for SIERA, or Skill-Interactive Earned Run Average – the Mariners move so far up the ranks that you actually have to change the category. They’re no longer the second worst, based on skill sets they’re the 13[SUP]th[/SUP] best.
Don’t think it’s possible? Well there is nothing a reliever can do that’s more important in high-leverage situations than strike batters out. Seattle’s bullpen was 4[SUP]th[/SUP] in K-rate in 2013. They did walk too many people (25[SUP]th[/SUP] in the league at 10.1% of batters) and their ground ball tendencies were merely middling. But put that together and the Mariners had a league-average bullpen that should have had an ERA of about 3.37. They could pitch exactly the same as last year and give up anywhere from 1.25 to 1.5 less runs per nine innings. Over the 505 innings the bullpen pitched that’s an amazing reduction in runs allowed of at least 70 and perhaps (gulp) 100 runs.
I’m starting to warm up to this call.
Let’s look at the offense. The Baltimore Orioles, paced by Chris Davis’ 53 dingers, led the majors in home runs. In 2013, fourteen different players hit 30 or more home runs and none of them played for the Mariners. Therefore, I can almost guarantee this next sentence is going to stun all but the most statistics-obsessed fan: Last year, behind only the Orioles, the team with the second most home runs in the majors was the Seattle Mariners. So why were they 22[SUP]nd[/SUP] in runs scored? There was some negative cluster luck but even factoring for that league-wide, they still tied for just 18[SUP]th[/SUP] in adjusted runs scored.
The real reason is the same shortfall which has bedeviled Seattle for years – they were 26[SUP]th[/SUP] in on-base percentage. That actually represented a massive improvement because the Mariners had been last in on-base percentage the three prior years and hadn’t finished out of the bottom three since 2007.
That’s why the addition of Robinson Cano and his lifetime .355 on-base percentage is so exciting for the Mariners outlook. Cano, of course, would have improved every team in the majors leagues except possibly the Red Sox, but his addition to the Mariners line up is especially crucial given their dearth of on-base skills. Fortunately, for Seattle, it’s not just Cano. Corey Hart and Logan Morrison have also been added to the lineup replacing Raul Ibanez and Kendrys Morales and while they may not be able to replicate their 52 home runs, it’s certainly within the realm of possibility. However, based on their lifetime on-base percentages, it’s a near guarantee that while they might not clear the bases as often, they’ll certainly be on the basepaths more often. And that, more than anything, is what the Mariners need. They certainly have flaws on offense but they’re going to score a lot more runs this year.
You know what? I’ve come around to this call. Sometimes you have to take the Tom Cruise route, jump up and down on a couch, and tell the whole world. You have to channel your inner-Joel Goodman from Risky Business, don the sunglasses, and throw caution to the wind. Sometimes you just have to say,
The Seattle Mariners are going to win the AL West in 2014!
2014 Outlook:
87-75 – First in AL West
721 Runs Scored 669 Runs Allowed
(I think it goes without saying that I support the “over” 80 total wins even if that number creeps up a bit in reaction to inter-division injuries.)
