MLB Run Line System 2014

ECC · Mar 25, 2014

Last year I finally came up with a system that worked. I did it on my own so it's not posted anywhere but I took the system into NHL as it has the same concept as this MLB RL system. You can find my NHL Puck Line system posted here http://www.therxforum.com/showthread.php?t=984316 If you followed that this year at $100 a unit as you can see the profit is at $4,865 right now. And that is in Hockey...tough to do. Only difference in MLB is a roster has a rotation of pitchers where NHL uses 1 or 2 goalies....Regardless the concept is the same.

How it works: Well some of you will shy away from it as this IS a chase system. A 4 game MAX chase as after 4 games the Units risked is too high. Here's the concept. Using OVERALL standings we pick the bottom 3 teams to fade. The goal is to bet against a crap teams so you'll be wagering their opponent's RUN LINE -1.5 (99% of the time this will be +$$) If the team we are FADING is the Favorite then you play their opponent's MONEY LINE instead of RUN LINE. This change to ML is made because we are only looking for +$$ payouts! So the Unit scale is as follow;
GAME 1 = 1 UNIT (a loss is only -100)
GAME 2 = 2 UNITS (loss -200 = 300 total)
GAME 3 = 3 UNITS (loss -300 + 300 = 600 total for the chase)
GAME 4 = 6 UNITS (loss starts chase over and system sustains a loss, a win here at even +105 range is +630)

We start this after 2 full weeks of games so the teams have time to squeak out their wins and losses they usually don't get except in the first week of the season and usually the last week of the season due to player changes. So the system starts 2 weeks into the season and will end somewhere around the time where teams bench players or have a lot of call ups playing. Last year I only did the first half of the season and was up more money than I ever was playing MLB wagers...It's beyond me why I didn't continue to play this but I got caught up in other crap at work and home etc etc. So will be tracking this here this year. I have not backtested this besides the first half of last year on my own and if you want to count the concept of the system in NHL which is proven to be profitable.

So if you wish to follow, Enjoy and GL
If you wish to fade, GL
If you wish to watch and or wait....thats fine too. I do suggest to start on GAME 1 of chases and not immediately into a 6 Unit play. But no one is stopping you from doing so. Feel free to correct me if I'm wrong I will be doing a lot of posts from my phone.
Either way. GOOD LUCK & see you soon.

ECC

packer2012 · Mar 25, 2014

ANY chase system is sooner or later the Martingale System. Correct? When your nuts are fully ablaze, don't coming crying to us.

ECC · Mar 25, 2014

packer2012 said:
ANY chase system is sooner or later the Martingale System. Correct? When your nuts are fully ablaze, don't coming crying to us.

Oh ok thanks for the heads up pack. There will be more of you just wasn't expecting so soon. I know there are chase haters out there, HENSE WHY I SAID PLAY, FADE, WATCH whatever...

packer2012 · Mar 25, 2014

Wish you the best of luck ECC. Hope you make a killing.

Just mean to point out to be careful. This cannot be called a system in any positive fashion. Anyone who understands the most rudimentary math knows this is a bus wreck waiting to happen. Just be ready to get off the bus before it drives off into the river.

ECC · Mar 25, 2014

appreciate it Packer, will see how it goes this year. I just know (because I did it last year) there were no bus stops from when I got on...Same with the NHL, it's all documented in the NHL forum. Not here to lead people in the wrong path as ... correct me if i'm wrong we're all here to make money. As for the title "system" if it makes you more comfortable we don't have to call it system...we can call them PLAYS. either way I hope your wrong lol ... GL

packer2012 · Mar 25, 2014

Hope you clean house. Best of luck!

cubfan2121 · Mar 25, 2014

ECC said:
Last year I finally came up with a system that worked. I did it on my own so it's not posted anywhere but I took the system into NHL as it has the same concept as this MLB RL system. You can find my NHL Puck Line system posted here http://www.therxforum.com/showthread.php?t=984316 If you followed that this year at $100 a unit as you can see the profit is at $4,865 right now. And that is in Hockey...tough to do. Only difference in MLB is a roster has a rotation of pitchers where NHL uses 1 or 2 goalies....Regardless the concept is the same.

How it works: Well some of you will shy away from it as this IS a chase system. A 4 game MAX chase as after 4 games the Units risked is too high. Here's the concept. Using OVERALL standings we pick the bottom 3 teams to fade. The goal is to bet against a crap teams so you'll be wagering their opponent's RUN LINE -1.5 (99% of the time this will be +$$) If the team we are FADING is the Favorite then you play their opponent's MONEY LINE instead of RUN LINE. This change to ML is made because we are only looking for +$$ payouts! So the Unit scale is as follow;
GAME 1 = 1 UNIT (a loss is only -100)
GAME 2 = 2 UNITS (loss -200 = 300 total)
GAME 3 = 3 UNITS (loss -300 + 300 = 600 total for the chase)
GAME 4 = 6 UNITS (loss starts chase over and system sustains a loss, a win here at even +105 range is +630)

We start this after 2 full weeks of games so the teams have time to squeak out their wins and losses they usually don't get except in the first week of the season and usually the last week of the season due to player changes. So the system starts 2 weeks into the season and will end somewhere around the time where teams bench players or have a lot of call ups playing. Last year I only did the first half of the season and was up more money than I ever was playing MLB wagers...It's beyond me why I didn't continue to play this but I got caught up in other crap at work and home etc etc. So will be tracking this here this year. I have not backtested this besides the first half of last year on my own and if you want to count the concept of the system in NHL which is proven to be profitable.

So if you wish to follow, Enjoy and GL
If you wish to fade, GL
If you wish to watch and or wait....thats fine too. I do suggest to start on GAME 1 of chases and not immediately into a 6 Unit play. But no one is stopping you from doing so. Feel free to correct me if I'm wrong I will be doing a lot of posts from my phone.
Either way. GOOD LUCK & see you soon.

ECC

ive been following the nhl system and took the time to scope some of the horrible mlb teams from last year such as the Astros, white sox and yes the cubs and noticed there were nowhere near as many 1 run games in comparison to hockey. The only issue I had backtracking was I couldn't find the run line payouts to get an actual unit count

so when will you be tracking plays?

i

candylicker · Mar 25, 2014

i know for fact Ecc puts the time in, so if he says he found something that has an edge it 1000% fact... best luck buddy

packer2012 · Mar 25, 2014

Ever heard of the show on ESPN "Numbers Never Lie"? They don"t.
.

Suzie · Mar 26, 2014

rxb@ll Chasing ...........ever watch a dog chase his tail? Thank you i think you get the picture

base ball is a ML sport run lines are an alternate that many locals use on large chalks like instead of - 220 odds you lay 2 1/2 runs for even money.

I read every chase system at other forums also one guy says greatest ever system in past 5 years goes 2461 - 0 LMAO wait a friggin minute how can you not lose any games?

it's a 6 game chase system he claims is his own making LMFAO most games won on the 1st game and 2nd game going like 83.6 % wins

but it's not 83.6 % wins the A games win like 59.7% b Games win 23.9 % or something like that

i wish i could take him on in MLB truly i'd love to see him win going for $10,000 cash held in secure funds

but i'm new to sports betting .......... one guy put him to challenge using his old methods of proven money management and other methods of betting but the chase system guy called him clueless and others who are waiting like lil kids for his plays are bashing the old timer also!

I hope the dummies get buried I know they will because no one has the funds to survive chase system losses

even with flat odds 100 to win 100 a 3 game chase loss will wipe out your start bank to try and win 1 unit on game 4 of chase as the chase system guy says is the sweet spot.

Here,s how this works out and forget money management guys chase systems blow that out of the water because you double up after a loss
start with $1000 bank lose 1st - 100 lose 2nd - 200 lose 3rd -400 total loss = -$700 you have only $300 left of bank so you cannot gain a penny
bet the $300 you win $300 and are now - $400 you have $600 left correct ...... and dont tell me you cant lose 3 more games out of 4 or even 2 out of 3 like this $600 bet $100 lose Bet $200 Lose - $300 win the 3rd bet $300 win your back at $600

go ahead go chasing byebye)(&^

packer2012 · Mar 26, 2014

Hey Suzie!

You say "but I'm new to sports betting". You sure have an iron clad take on this subject. Quick and excellent pick-up on your part.

And Suzie.... be careful on here.... many people are posting just to hear they keyboard and brain cells rattle. Most of these jokers have never bet "real" money. Maybe a cup of Joe from Starbucks while standing around the water cooler with the yuppy buddies. But never a serious lay-down at a sportsbook.

The systems and bull crap that some of these guys spew.... they could not have bet serious money on these opinions, or they would already be "buried in the Pine Barrens". (Federally mandated Tony Soprano reference)

Suzie · Mar 26, 2014

yes packer i'm newbie at this but i have close friend teaching me read what i posted about his methods of betting MLB.

I'm no young chickie either i'm over 40 :toast:

METFAN · Mar 26, 2014

GOOD LUCK..BUT REALIZE EVEN THE WORST TEAMS WIN AROUND 60 GAMES ANS OFTEN TEAMS LIKE BOSTON OR NYY WILL BE -1.5 RUNS AND STILL -120-135..ESP AT HOME..HARD TO WAGER 6 UNITS ON A RL PLAY...

But i wish you the best..so ..GOOD LUCK

packer2012 · Mar 26, 2014

Metfan, you show yourself to be a longer time NYY follower. Since they suck out loud now.

Of course you are right though.

packer2012 · Mar 26, 2014

Suzie said:
yes packer i'm newbie at this but i have close friend teaching me read what i posted about his methods of betting MLB.

I'm no young chickie either i'm over 40 :toast:

You speak with wisdom... but I consider the over 40 to still be young. I guess unless you are quite a large gap above 40?????

eventhorizon · Mar 26, 2014

Good luck ECC. I know people who use chase systems. They make small amounts until they run into a bad run. There are many problems with chase systems. You have to have a large BR to make a small amount and your BR is never safe. Your ROI is not that good even if you have a very small number of losing runs. Good luck with your system.

ECC · Mar 26, 2014

you guys can feel free to sit back and watch or take the bashing to a new thread and you guys can circle jerk each other in there....

METFAN makes a valid point, but if once in a while you run into one of those games with -$ payout for a RL ... well that's why they call it gambling, no?

Suzie Q - Your explaining a basic chase system where you double your lost $$ each game forward...If you actually read my layout I'm not doubling because its a flat even risk most the time when you're betting a +$$ payout ... for those games that METFAN mentions. (just like the NHL i've got going --- which by the way just broke the 5K in profit mark on such a shitty system) I mark it down if it's a -$ play and it factors into my totals. AGAIN feel free to not follow along.

I'll give it to you that a chase system IS risky, which is why I only do a 4 game chase so it doesn't get too pricey (4 Games has been the cut off for me because of past experiences at more games.) ... For some people $100 per unit might be out of their reach if a Game 4 comes up, yes it gets pricey. Again this is gambling, this is something that has worked for me last year and is doing fairly well in NHL, which has a WHOLE HELL of a lot LESS scoring. http://www.therxforum.com/showthread.php?t=984316&page=4

SO my little piece of advice for people that may be starting with $1,000 bankroll (YOU SHOULDN'T BE BETTING $100 A GAME IN THE FIRST PLACE!!!!) Would you be playing $100 a game on a -150 Money Line Favorite? go for it, you'll lose money quickly that way....
So if you were to do a chase system...start off with something smaller like $25 per unit. Be reasonable with what you have and build a bankroll.

ECC · Mar 26, 2014

event horizon said:
Good luck ECC. I know people who use chase systems. They make small amounts until they run into a bad run. There are many problems with chase systems. You have to have a large BR to make a small amount and your BR is never safe. Your ROI is not that good even if you have a very small number of losing runs. Good luck with your system.

Thanks...

I'm not saying this is the ONLY way to win. or This will RAKE IN MILLIONS. or There's no risk here!

I'm not condoning that at all guys, Im not hiding anything. There is risks with Chase systems yes...but i'm not doing ML chase here it's RL chase at +$$ GAMBLING ITSELF is risky. Stocks are risky, giving your money to a financial advisor is risky. YOU WOULDN'T BE IN THIS FORUM IF YOU WEREN'T RISKING YOUR MONEY WITHOUT KNOWING IT.

so lets finalize this here...bashing can stop, WE GET IT .... People hate chase systems... I mentioned that in my first post. I get it... I'm just here to share with what has worked for me last year and in NHL .... that's it... that simple.

ECC · Mar 26, 2014

cubfan2121 said:
ive been following the nhl system and took the time to scope some of the horrible mlb teams from last year such as the Astros, white sox and yes the cubs and noticed there were nowhere near as many 1 run games in comparison to hockey. The only issue I had backtracking was I couldn't find the run line payouts to get an actual unit count

so when will you be tracking plays?i

cubfan2121 -- I've got a site you can use to backtrack and check out multiple books if you want to send me a message I'll send that over to you. Also you're cubs picked up my buddy .... prospect over at 3B he's got some promise and I think ready to go. cubbies are young this year and hungry to play some ball. GL

eventhorizon · Mar 26, 2014

ECC. I was not bashing I was just pointing out to people the down-side to chase systems. The people I know who do chase betting do okay, the people who parlay are aways broke. As I said "Good Luck" this year.

MLB Run Line System 2014

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