[h=1]Ranking title shots for Sweet 16[/h][h=3]Which teams are the best bets to cut down the nets in North Texas?[/h]
By John Gasaway | ESPN Insider
I can speak only for myself, but from my chair, that was one highly entertaining first weekend of NCAA tournament basketball. Three of the four No. 1 seeds have survived, but regardless of seed, which teams really have the best chance of winning it all?
My answer to that question is based on three primary sources of information:
1. What we saw from these teams all season long (as captured by my eyes, the BPI calculated by my colleagues here at ESPN, the KenPom rankings and my own per-possession tracking).
2. The tournament forecasting done by my colleague Nate Silver.
3. What I've seen take place since the start of the NCAA tournament.
Here are my rankings of every team's chances to win the national championship.
1. Florida Gators
Next up: UCLA Bruins
Billy Donovan may have the best team remaining, and on top of that he faces a relatively smooth path to the Final Four. Make no mistake, UCLA is capable of defeating Florida on Thursday night in Memphis. (Just ask Arizona how good Steve Alford's team really is.) But if the Gators make it past UCLA, they will face either Stanford or Dayton, giving Donovan's team a more forgiving route than the ones confronting Arizona (which will have to contend with San Diego State and then either Wisconsin or Baylor) and Virginia (facing Michigan State just for the chance to play either Iowa State or Connecticut).
The Gators have been excellent on defense all season, and that has continued in the tournament: Albany and Pittsburgh combined to score just 0.86 points per possession against this D. Meanwhile, on offense, Scottie Wilbekin has more than justified his selection as the SEC Player of the Year, as he has made 69 percent of his 2s in two tournament games. No team is a lock, but right now, Florida looks awfully tough to beat.
2. Arizona Wildcats
Next up: San Diego State Aztecs
That was a good Gonzaga team that Arizona just brushed aside, and the scary part for the rest of the field is that the Wildcats are starting to look quite formidable on offense. In wins over Weber State and the Bulldogs, Sean Miller's bunch connected on 55 percent of its 2s. And in the game against the Zags, Aaron Gordon scored 18 points (8-of-10 shooting) in just 23 minutes.
<OFFER>Needless to say, even in the midst of a surge on offense, Arizona has continued to be as tough and consistent on defense. No team this entire season has scored more than 1.15 points per possession against this D, and most opposing offenses have been held well under a point per trip. The Wildcats simply don't break down on that side of the ball, and that gives them an excellent shot at the title.
3. Virginia Cavaliers
Next up: Michigan State Spartans
Virginia meets up sooner rather than later with Michigan State, and they are two of the strongest teams still standing. Given that pairing, a ranking this high for the Cavaliers speaks volumes about what Tony Bennett's team has shown. Observers -- and Virginia fans -- were worried when Coastal Carolina knotted the score 47-47 with a little less than nine minutes remaining in the Chanticleers' round-of-64 game against the Cavaliers, but in retrospect, Coastal Carolina simply hit some 3s (9-of-19).
Everything else about Virginia's performance in its first two tournament games looks very familiar. Anthony Gill is making big contributions off the bench (30 points in two games on 12-of-19 shooting in just 48 minutes), and Bennett has gone into full prevent-defense mode. Offensive rebounds are now strictly off-limits for the Cavaliers, who instead hustle back on D at the release of any shot by a teammate. And the pack-line defense has become even more packed in. Opponent turnovers have nearly vanished as a result, but those opponents -- again, with the exception of Coastal Carolina's 3s -- aren't making many shots or getting many offensive rebounds, either. Casual fans and even some professionals have been waiting for months now for Virginia to show its true non-No. 1-seed colors. That wait continues.
4. Louisville Cardinals
Next up: Kentucky Wildcats
Louisville is in the Sweet 16 because of defense, and defense alone. The Cardinals have been magnificent on that side of the ball in two tournament games, even allowing for the fact that the offenses they faced (Manhattan and Saint Louis) were not the best the field of 68 had to offer. Speaking of offenses not performing at the highest level, Rick Pitino's men have scored 137 points in 138 tournament possessions. Russ Smith is 6-of-19 from the field, and as a team the Cards have shot just 43 percent on their 2s in the past two games -- when they got a shot off at all. This offense gave the ball away on 22 percent of its possessions against the Jaspers and the Billikens.
To be sure, Louisville is loved by laptops everywhere -- including mine. And ordinarily I'd be willing to write off a couple of subpar performances in the tournament if they were preceded by an entire regular season of excellence. But, to repeat a point I've made previously, the Cardinals' beautiful regular-season stats were achieved primarily in one game against Connecticut and 10 others against the exceptionally weak bottom half of the American Athletic Conference. That plus a wheezy offense give me pause, and that's why I'm ranking this team's chances a spot or two lower than you'll see elsewhere. If, on the other hand, you think No. 4 sounds high given my description here, keep in mind I'm talking about a team that in addition to Smith has Montrezl Harrell and, oh yeah, Luke Hancock, the 2013 Final Four's Most Outstanding Player. An upswing in performance on offense would not shock me.
5. Wisconsin Badgers
Next up: Baylor Bears
Behold the power and terror of a very, very perimeter-oriented offense. The Badgers are bombing away from the outside, and if they lose you'll hear complaints about an imbalanced attack. Meantime, those crickets you hear are telling you Wisconsin hasn't lost and, furthermore, Bo Ryan's men are scoring an outrageous 1.29 points per trip. Yes, some of that is the statistical residue from a laugher against American University, but the Badgers then came back two days later and scored at the exact same level against a talented and deep Oregon team.
With the single exception of Nigel Hayes, any Wisconsin player you see on the floor in the tournament will shoot a 3 if left open. To this point in the bracket, Ryan's team is hitting those 3s at a very good, but not insane, rate (41 percent), suggesting any regression to the mean may be slight. True, Wisconsin's defense this season is itself a little on the permissive side. That just makes the games more fun to watch, and the battle against the Ducks was a perfect example. The collision between this offense and the suddenly outstanding Baylor defense (see below) should be up there on those same bleachers. I can't wait.
6. Michigan State Spartans
Next up: Virginia Cavaliers
Every coach says "on any given night" a different player on the opposing team can hurt you, but if Virginia coach Tony Bennett says that about Michigan State this week, he's exactly right. Against Delaware, that player was Adreian Payne. But against Harvard it was Branden Dawson, and Gary Harris wasn't too bad, either. Michigan State is bludgeoning opposing defenses in the paint to the tune of 56 percent 2-point shooting in the tournament.
Which is all good, but now I have a question: What's up with all of the fouls? The Big Ten team that everyone, and I mean everyone, is picking for the Final Four isn't supposed to shoot 22 fewer free throws than two teams from the Colonial and the Ivy League. The Blue Hens and the Crimson combined to score 151 points in 143 possessions, but if the Spartans can just keep the fouling down to a normal rate, there's a good defense here yearning to breathe free. If I have Tom Izzo's team ranked in this spot and his next opponent at No. 3, I apparently think the winner of that game has a good chance to move on to the Final Four. Indeed I do.
7. Tennessee Volunteers
Next up: Michigan Wolverines
Over the course of 18 SEC games, Cuonzo Martin's team outscored conference opponents by 0.14 points per possession. Customarily that's indicative of a team that can get to the Final Four. (In 2011, a Kentucky team that everyone kept yelling at for losing a series of close road games reached a national semifinal after outscoring the league by 0.12 points per trip.) In the case of this season's Volunteers, however, the question I had was whether a team that went 0-2 against Texas A&M could really be trusted to live up to its numbers.
That answer is inching closer to "yes." Certainly Iowa, UMass and Mercer don't comprise the toughest sequence this field can throw at a team, but give Tennessee credit. Jarnell Stokes is gobbling up offensive rebounds left and right, and Jordan McRae is shooting 15-of-25 inside the arc during the tournament. As I noted earlier this week, I expect the Vols' game against Michigan to be close, high-scoring and fun to watch.
8. Kentucky Wildcats
Next up: Louisville Cardinals
If John Calipari's men continue to shoot 3s the way they did against Wichita State (8-of-18), opponents will want to stop and reconsider their scouting reports. At a minimum, this group outscored a No. 1 seed that shot 10-of-21 on its 3s. Not only was that an amazing game, but it was an impressively assured performance from Kentucky.
Let's say Aaron Harrison and James Young continue to make a fair number of 3s. On a team that already has Julius Randle wreaking havoc in the paint on one end of the floor and Willie Cauley-Stein protecting the rim at the other, a newfound perimeter capability could make things very interesting in the Wildcats' next game. (Not that a Sweet 16 showdown against Louisville isn't already mildly interesting as it is, mind you.) The only concern here for Kentucky fans may be the 12 turnovers that Andrew Harrison committed in the past two games, a number that's driving UK's teamwide 21 percent TO rate in the tournament.
9. Michigan Wolverines
Next up: Tennessee Volunteers
Michigan is shooting 47 percent on 3s in the tournament, and when that happens your margin for error is exceptionally small if you're trying to beat Tennessee. Nik Stauskas personally is 7-of-15 from beyond the arc in the past two games, and his eight-assist performance against Texas underscored the quandary he presents to opposing defenses. Basically, when the ball is in his hands, it's exceptionally likely to result in points on the board for the Wolverines.
If, however, you're the kind of Michigan fan who simply must fret, fix your attention on that 60.3 percent defensive rebounding rate in the tournament and then consider that you're about to play Tennessee. The Volunteers have struggled in various areas this season, but they've been consistently outstanding on the offensive glass. It may be the case that Michigan and Tennessee will be able to score handily against each other.
10. UCLA Bruins
Next up: Florida Gators
UCLA hasn't been seriously challenged in 80 minutes of basketball against Tulsa and Stephen F. Austin (for example, see the Bruins' 10 percent turnover rate), but one supposes the gliding will come to an abrupt halt against Florida. Mind you, Steve Alford's team will happily look the Gators straight in the eye in terms of personnel. I'll spare you another installment from my "Jordan Adams is too darn underrated" crusade, but let's just say he and the more appropriately renowned Kyle Anderson most certainly will be up to the task of facing Scottie Wilbekin and his mates.
I can understand why everyone is anxious to see the Bruins' talented offense face the Gators' indomitable defense (and watching Wilbekin guard Anderson should indeed be required viewing), but I wonder whether the game might be decided when these roles are flipped. UCLA's defense has been good but not great this season, and Donovan's men seem to be getting better on offense the longer they play.
11. Iowa State Cyclones
Next up: Connecticut Huskies
Since the opening tip of Iowa State's Big 12 tournament quarterfinal against Kansas State, Fred Hoiberg's group has made 51 percent of its 3s. As long as those shots keep falling -- and they've been falling now for five games -- Iowa State stands a good chance of surviving and advancing. Between the 3s and DeAndre Kane's efforts inside the arc (he was 8-of-14 on his 2s against the long North Carolina front line, albeit with seven turnovers), the Cyclones have turned back all comers in a postseason that, with each passing victory, feels more and more like Connecticut's in 2011.
Speaking of Connecticut, the Cyclones will face a significant size disadvantage against UConn just as they did against the Tar Heels. Hoiberg's answer thus far has been quickness and accuracy, a response that has afforded his team the opportunity to play as the higher seed for a spot in a regional final. Tough to argue with that answer.
12. Baylor Bears
Next up: Wisconsin Badgers
Having made short work of two consecutive opponents from the Cornhusker State, Scott Drew would be well-advised to steer clear of those environs in the near future. The good people of Nebraska aren't going to be particularly interested in postmortems, but I am. Brady Heslip drained five 3s against Creighton, while Isaiah Austin posted 7-of-9 shooting inside the arc. And then there's the Bears' defense, one that I may have to start calling the Curiously Great Baylor Defense.
Curious because Nebraska and the Bluejays both had pretty good success inside the arc. Now, I don't want to overgeneralize here (for one thing, Creighton was recording a laudable 2-point field goal percentage, for the most part, while down 25 points). But it does give future Baylor opponents a ray of hope. On days when the Bears aren't scoring 1.43 points per possession, the way they did against Creighton, maybe opponents can actually give these guys a game. That would be something new.
13. Connecticut Huskies
Next up: Iowa State Cyclones
In case the point still has to be made at this late date, coach Kevin Ollie has put his own stylistic stamp on this program. UConn now attempts a normal number of 3s, and the Huskies also force their fair share of turnovers. The first characteristic is important because UConn has actually shot better on its 3s in the tournament (46 percent) than on its 2s (45). And that second feature may come into play against Iowa State, because the Cyclones uncharacteristically are giving the ball away more often (seldom) than their opponents (never) in the tournament.
As seen in Shabazz Napier's fearless 25-point game against Villanova in the round of 32, he is at a point in his career when he's merely choosing how best to impose his will. He can draw a foul, hit a 3 or dish an assist, but that voice will be heard. The collision between Napier and DeAndre Kane will be much talked about, and it should be.
14. San Diego State Aztecs
Next up: Arizona Wildcats
The Aztecs have built their reputation on defense, and Steve Fisher's bunch certainly hasn't disappointed on that front in the tournament. New Mexico State and North Dakota State made a mere 40 percent of their 2s, as the Lobos and Bison combined to score just 113 points in 127 possessions. It has been a textbook display of lockdown D by SDSU.
That said, brackets can reward textbook displays by pitting you against one of the few defenses in the country that's even better than yours. San Diego State guard Xavier Thames put on a show against NDSU -- with 30 points and five assists -- but as a team, the Aztecs were the Mountain West's No. 4-ranked offense in conference play. The Arizona defense is going to be a tall order for the Aztecs, to say the least, even with a player as good as Thames leading the attack.
15. Stanford Cardinal
Next up: Dayton Flyers
Any team that can fly from Palo Alto to St. Louis and beat Kansas on the banks of the Mississippi is not to be taken lightly, and in fact I give Stanford the edge over Dayton to reach the Elite Eight. I do think that may be as far as the Cardinal's run goes, however, for two reasons. First, the opponent in that regional final is likely to be Florida. Second, as good as Johnny Dawkins' team has been on defense in the tournament, it has also been questionable on offense, scoring a meager 118 points in 130 possessions. Dwight Powell, Josh Huestis and Stefan Nastic form a frontcourt that no one wants to face right now, but Stanford may need better production from its offense to beat Dayton, much less pull an upset in the regional final.
16. Dayton Flyers
Next up: Stanford Cardinal
On the topic of "not to be taken lightly," Dayton is here because the Flyers sent Ohio State and Syracuse home. Now Jordan Sibert, Devin Oliver and Dyshawn Pierre have a golden opportunity to reach the Elite Eight, facing a No. 10 seed that has had trouble scoring in two tournament games. My concern about Dayton, however, has already been entered into the record this week:
Archie Miller's team has received an added boost in the tournament in the form of absolutely atrocious perimeter shooting by opponents. I don't doubt for an instant that Dayton's doing an excellent job of contesting 3-point shots, but when opposing teams are making just 13 percent of those attempts, there's likely to be an element of good fortune involved there as well.
Dayton has strung together a remarkable run, one that may even extend for another win. And if the run does end there for the Flyers, this glass should definitely be seen as half-full for a No. 11 seed. All in all, it has been a pretty good March from the Miller brothers.
By John Gasaway | ESPN Insider
I can speak only for myself, but from my chair, that was one highly entertaining first weekend of NCAA tournament basketball. Three of the four No. 1 seeds have survived, but regardless of seed, which teams really have the best chance of winning it all?
My answer to that question is based on three primary sources of information:
1. What we saw from these teams all season long (as captured by my eyes, the BPI calculated by my colleagues here at ESPN, the KenPom rankings and my own per-possession tracking).
2. The tournament forecasting done by my colleague Nate Silver.
3. What I've seen take place since the start of the NCAA tournament.
Here are my rankings of every team's chances to win the national championship.
1. Florida Gators
Next up: UCLA Bruins
Billy Donovan may have the best team remaining, and on top of that he faces a relatively smooth path to the Final Four. Make no mistake, UCLA is capable of defeating Florida on Thursday night in Memphis. (Just ask Arizona how good Steve Alford's team really is.) But if the Gators make it past UCLA, they will face either Stanford or Dayton, giving Donovan's team a more forgiving route than the ones confronting Arizona (which will have to contend with San Diego State and then either Wisconsin or Baylor) and Virginia (facing Michigan State just for the chance to play either Iowa State or Connecticut).
The Gators have been excellent on defense all season, and that has continued in the tournament: Albany and Pittsburgh combined to score just 0.86 points per possession against this D. Meanwhile, on offense, Scottie Wilbekin has more than justified his selection as the SEC Player of the Year, as he has made 69 percent of his 2s in two tournament games. No team is a lock, but right now, Florida looks awfully tough to beat.
2. Arizona Wildcats
Next up: San Diego State Aztecs
That was a good Gonzaga team that Arizona just brushed aside, and the scary part for the rest of the field is that the Wildcats are starting to look quite formidable on offense. In wins over Weber State and the Bulldogs, Sean Miller's bunch connected on 55 percent of its 2s. And in the game against the Zags, Aaron Gordon scored 18 points (8-of-10 shooting) in just 23 minutes.
<OFFER>Needless to say, even in the midst of a surge on offense, Arizona has continued to be as tough and consistent on defense. No team this entire season has scored more than 1.15 points per possession against this D, and most opposing offenses have been held well under a point per trip. The Wildcats simply don't break down on that side of the ball, and that gives them an excellent shot at the title.
3. Virginia Cavaliers
Next up: Michigan State Spartans
Virginia meets up sooner rather than later with Michigan State, and they are two of the strongest teams still standing. Given that pairing, a ranking this high for the Cavaliers speaks volumes about what Tony Bennett's team has shown. Observers -- and Virginia fans -- were worried when Coastal Carolina knotted the score 47-47 with a little less than nine minutes remaining in the Chanticleers' round-of-64 game against the Cavaliers, but in retrospect, Coastal Carolina simply hit some 3s (9-of-19).
Everything else about Virginia's performance in its first two tournament games looks very familiar. Anthony Gill is making big contributions off the bench (30 points in two games on 12-of-19 shooting in just 48 minutes), and Bennett has gone into full prevent-defense mode. Offensive rebounds are now strictly off-limits for the Cavaliers, who instead hustle back on D at the release of any shot by a teammate. And the pack-line defense has become even more packed in. Opponent turnovers have nearly vanished as a result, but those opponents -- again, with the exception of Coastal Carolina's 3s -- aren't making many shots or getting many offensive rebounds, either. Casual fans and even some professionals have been waiting for months now for Virginia to show its true non-No. 1-seed colors. That wait continues.
4. Louisville Cardinals
Next up: Kentucky Wildcats
Louisville is in the Sweet 16 because of defense, and defense alone. The Cardinals have been magnificent on that side of the ball in two tournament games, even allowing for the fact that the offenses they faced (Manhattan and Saint Louis) were not the best the field of 68 had to offer. Speaking of offenses not performing at the highest level, Rick Pitino's men have scored 137 points in 138 tournament possessions. Russ Smith is 6-of-19 from the field, and as a team the Cards have shot just 43 percent on their 2s in the past two games -- when they got a shot off at all. This offense gave the ball away on 22 percent of its possessions against the Jaspers and the Billikens.
To be sure, Louisville is loved by laptops everywhere -- including mine. And ordinarily I'd be willing to write off a couple of subpar performances in the tournament if they were preceded by an entire regular season of excellence. But, to repeat a point I've made previously, the Cardinals' beautiful regular-season stats were achieved primarily in one game against Connecticut and 10 others against the exceptionally weak bottom half of the American Athletic Conference. That plus a wheezy offense give me pause, and that's why I'm ranking this team's chances a spot or two lower than you'll see elsewhere. If, on the other hand, you think No. 4 sounds high given my description here, keep in mind I'm talking about a team that in addition to Smith has Montrezl Harrell and, oh yeah, Luke Hancock, the 2013 Final Four's Most Outstanding Player. An upswing in performance on offense would not shock me.
5. Wisconsin Badgers
Next up: Baylor Bears
Behold the power and terror of a very, very perimeter-oriented offense. The Badgers are bombing away from the outside, and if they lose you'll hear complaints about an imbalanced attack. Meantime, those crickets you hear are telling you Wisconsin hasn't lost and, furthermore, Bo Ryan's men are scoring an outrageous 1.29 points per trip. Yes, some of that is the statistical residue from a laugher against American University, but the Badgers then came back two days later and scored at the exact same level against a talented and deep Oregon team.
With the single exception of Nigel Hayes, any Wisconsin player you see on the floor in the tournament will shoot a 3 if left open. To this point in the bracket, Ryan's team is hitting those 3s at a very good, but not insane, rate (41 percent), suggesting any regression to the mean may be slight. True, Wisconsin's defense this season is itself a little on the permissive side. That just makes the games more fun to watch, and the battle against the Ducks was a perfect example. The collision between this offense and the suddenly outstanding Baylor defense (see below) should be up there on those same bleachers. I can't wait.
6. Michigan State Spartans
Next up: Virginia Cavaliers
Every coach says "on any given night" a different player on the opposing team can hurt you, but if Virginia coach Tony Bennett says that about Michigan State this week, he's exactly right. Against Delaware, that player was Adreian Payne. But against Harvard it was Branden Dawson, and Gary Harris wasn't too bad, either. Michigan State is bludgeoning opposing defenses in the paint to the tune of 56 percent 2-point shooting in the tournament.
Which is all good, but now I have a question: What's up with all of the fouls? The Big Ten team that everyone, and I mean everyone, is picking for the Final Four isn't supposed to shoot 22 fewer free throws than two teams from the Colonial and the Ivy League. The Blue Hens and the Crimson combined to score 151 points in 143 possessions, but if the Spartans can just keep the fouling down to a normal rate, there's a good defense here yearning to breathe free. If I have Tom Izzo's team ranked in this spot and his next opponent at No. 3, I apparently think the winner of that game has a good chance to move on to the Final Four. Indeed I do.
7. Tennessee Volunteers
Next up: Michigan Wolverines
Over the course of 18 SEC games, Cuonzo Martin's team outscored conference opponents by 0.14 points per possession. Customarily that's indicative of a team that can get to the Final Four. (In 2011, a Kentucky team that everyone kept yelling at for losing a series of close road games reached a national semifinal after outscoring the league by 0.12 points per trip.) In the case of this season's Volunteers, however, the question I had was whether a team that went 0-2 against Texas A&M could really be trusted to live up to its numbers.
That answer is inching closer to "yes." Certainly Iowa, UMass and Mercer don't comprise the toughest sequence this field can throw at a team, but give Tennessee credit. Jarnell Stokes is gobbling up offensive rebounds left and right, and Jordan McRae is shooting 15-of-25 inside the arc during the tournament. As I noted earlier this week, I expect the Vols' game against Michigan to be close, high-scoring and fun to watch.
8. Kentucky Wildcats
Next up: Louisville Cardinals
If John Calipari's men continue to shoot 3s the way they did against Wichita State (8-of-18), opponents will want to stop and reconsider their scouting reports. At a minimum, this group outscored a No. 1 seed that shot 10-of-21 on its 3s. Not only was that an amazing game, but it was an impressively assured performance from Kentucky.
Let's say Aaron Harrison and James Young continue to make a fair number of 3s. On a team that already has Julius Randle wreaking havoc in the paint on one end of the floor and Willie Cauley-Stein protecting the rim at the other, a newfound perimeter capability could make things very interesting in the Wildcats' next game. (Not that a Sweet 16 showdown against Louisville isn't already mildly interesting as it is, mind you.) The only concern here for Kentucky fans may be the 12 turnovers that Andrew Harrison committed in the past two games, a number that's driving UK's teamwide 21 percent TO rate in the tournament.
9. Michigan Wolverines
Next up: Tennessee Volunteers
Michigan is shooting 47 percent on 3s in the tournament, and when that happens your margin for error is exceptionally small if you're trying to beat Tennessee. Nik Stauskas personally is 7-of-15 from beyond the arc in the past two games, and his eight-assist performance against Texas underscored the quandary he presents to opposing defenses. Basically, when the ball is in his hands, it's exceptionally likely to result in points on the board for the Wolverines.
If, however, you're the kind of Michigan fan who simply must fret, fix your attention on that 60.3 percent defensive rebounding rate in the tournament and then consider that you're about to play Tennessee. The Volunteers have struggled in various areas this season, but they've been consistently outstanding on the offensive glass. It may be the case that Michigan and Tennessee will be able to score handily against each other.
10. UCLA Bruins
Next up: Florida Gators
UCLA hasn't been seriously challenged in 80 minutes of basketball against Tulsa and Stephen F. Austin (for example, see the Bruins' 10 percent turnover rate), but one supposes the gliding will come to an abrupt halt against Florida. Mind you, Steve Alford's team will happily look the Gators straight in the eye in terms of personnel. I'll spare you another installment from my "Jordan Adams is too darn underrated" crusade, but let's just say he and the more appropriately renowned Kyle Anderson most certainly will be up to the task of facing Scottie Wilbekin and his mates.
I can understand why everyone is anxious to see the Bruins' talented offense face the Gators' indomitable defense (and watching Wilbekin guard Anderson should indeed be required viewing), but I wonder whether the game might be decided when these roles are flipped. UCLA's defense has been good but not great this season, and Donovan's men seem to be getting better on offense the longer they play.
11. Iowa State Cyclones
Next up: Connecticut Huskies
Since the opening tip of Iowa State's Big 12 tournament quarterfinal against Kansas State, Fred Hoiberg's group has made 51 percent of its 3s. As long as those shots keep falling -- and they've been falling now for five games -- Iowa State stands a good chance of surviving and advancing. Between the 3s and DeAndre Kane's efforts inside the arc (he was 8-of-14 on his 2s against the long North Carolina front line, albeit with seven turnovers), the Cyclones have turned back all comers in a postseason that, with each passing victory, feels more and more like Connecticut's in 2011.
Speaking of Connecticut, the Cyclones will face a significant size disadvantage against UConn just as they did against the Tar Heels. Hoiberg's answer thus far has been quickness and accuracy, a response that has afforded his team the opportunity to play as the higher seed for a spot in a regional final. Tough to argue with that answer.
12. Baylor Bears
Next up: Wisconsin Badgers
Having made short work of two consecutive opponents from the Cornhusker State, Scott Drew would be well-advised to steer clear of those environs in the near future. The good people of Nebraska aren't going to be particularly interested in postmortems, but I am. Brady Heslip drained five 3s against Creighton, while Isaiah Austin posted 7-of-9 shooting inside the arc. And then there's the Bears' defense, one that I may have to start calling the Curiously Great Baylor Defense.
Curious because Nebraska and the Bluejays both had pretty good success inside the arc. Now, I don't want to overgeneralize here (for one thing, Creighton was recording a laudable 2-point field goal percentage, for the most part, while down 25 points). But it does give future Baylor opponents a ray of hope. On days when the Bears aren't scoring 1.43 points per possession, the way they did against Creighton, maybe opponents can actually give these guys a game. That would be something new.
13. Connecticut Huskies
Next up: Iowa State Cyclones
In case the point still has to be made at this late date, coach Kevin Ollie has put his own stylistic stamp on this program. UConn now attempts a normal number of 3s, and the Huskies also force their fair share of turnovers. The first characteristic is important because UConn has actually shot better on its 3s in the tournament (46 percent) than on its 2s (45). And that second feature may come into play against Iowa State, because the Cyclones uncharacteristically are giving the ball away more often (seldom) than their opponents (never) in the tournament.
As seen in Shabazz Napier's fearless 25-point game against Villanova in the round of 32, he is at a point in his career when he's merely choosing how best to impose his will. He can draw a foul, hit a 3 or dish an assist, but that voice will be heard. The collision between Napier and DeAndre Kane will be much talked about, and it should be.
14. San Diego State Aztecs
Next up: Arizona Wildcats
The Aztecs have built their reputation on defense, and Steve Fisher's bunch certainly hasn't disappointed on that front in the tournament. New Mexico State and North Dakota State made a mere 40 percent of their 2s, as the Lobos and Bison combined to score just 113 points in 127 possessions. It has been a textbook display of lockdown D by SDSU.
That said, brackets can reward textbook displays by pitting you against one of the few defenses in the country that's even better than yours. San Diego State guard Xavier Thames put on a show against NDSU -- with 30 points and five assists -- but as a team, the Aztecs were the Mountain West's No. 4-ranked offense in conference play. The Arizona defense is going to be a tall order for the Aztecs, to say the least, even with a player as good as Thames leading the attack.
15. Stanford Cardinal
Next up: Dayton Flyers
Any team that can fly from Palo Alto to St. Louis and beat Kansas on the banks of the Mississippi is not to be taken lightly, and in fact I give Stanford the edge over Dayton to reach the Elite Eight. I do think that may be as far as the Cardinal's run goes, however, for two reasons. First, the opponent in that regional final is likely to be Florida. Second, as good as Johnny Dawkins' team has been on defense in the tournament, it has also been questionable on offense, scoring a meager 118 points in 130 possessions. Dwight Powell, Josh Huestis and Stefan Nastic form a frontcourt that no one wants to face right now, but Stanford may need better production from its offense to beat Dayton, much less pull an upset in the regional final.
16. Dayton Flyers
Next up: Stanford Cardinal
On the topic of "not to be taken lightly," Dayton is here because the Flyers sent Ohio State and Syracuse home. Now Jordan Sibert, Devin Oliver and Dyshawn Pierre have a golden opportunity to reach the Elite Eight, facing a No. 10 seed that has had trouble scoring in two tournament games. My concern about Dayton, however, has already been entered into the record this week:
Archie Miller's team has received an added boost in the tournament in the form of absolutely atrocious perimeter shooting by opponents. I don't doubt for an instant that Dayton's doing an excellent job of contesting 3-point shots, but when opposing teams are making just 13 percent of those attempts, there's likely to be an element of good fortune involved there as well.
Dayton has strung together a remarkable run, one that may even extend for another win. And if the run does end there for the Flyers, this glass should definitely be seen as half-full for a No. 11 seed. All in all, it has been a pretty good March from the Miller brothers.
