[h=1]Thursday's best tourney bets[/h][h=3]Smart plays for all of the Sweet 16 games on Thursday[/h]By Ted Sevransky, Dave Tuley and PJ Walsh | ESPN Insider
The easiest strategy for picking point-spread winners in the NCAA tournament is to ignore the point spread completely, concentrating on picking straight-up winners. Of the 16 teams that reached the second weekend of the Big Dance, 15 covered the spread to get here. Michigan State was the only team to win but not cover, beating Harvard by only seven as 8.5-point favorites.
Of course, anyone who filled out a bracket will tell you that picking straight-up winners isn't necessarily much easier than picking point-spread winners here in March. We'll do our best to accomplish that task in this preview for Thursday's Sweet 16 matchups. Games are listed in Las Vegas rotation order and best bets are noted with an asterisk (*).
[h=3]No. 4 UCLA Bruins versus No. 1 Florida Gators[/h]
LVH line: Florida minus-4.5
PickCenter consensus pick: Florida 54 percent
Steve Alford's Bruins have enjoyed a relatively easy draw to reach the Sweet 16, knocking off undersized Tulsa and outclassed Stephen F. Austin. Their best player, 6-foot-9 Kyle Anderson, was a matchup nightmare for both of those squads, while 6-5 guard Jordan Adams was able to shoot over both defenses with relative ease.
But the Bruins must take a major step up in class as they face the No. 1 overall seed in the tournament. Their big men haven't been particularly productive. The Wear twins and Tony Parker -- UCLA's low-post trio -- are not strong offensive threats or dominating defenders. That's bad news against a Florida team with size to spare. Will Yeguete, at 6-8, can match up defensively with Anderson. And 6-9 Patric Young has dominated in six matchups against fellow Sweet 16 teams from the SEC, Tennessee and Kentucky, two teams with an ample supply of low-post size and muscle.<OFFER></OFFER>
UCLA hasn't reached the second weekend of the tournament since its Final Four trip back in 2008 and Alford never got any of his talented New Mexico teams into the Sweet 16. There's a sense of accomplishment for the Bruins just having gotten this far. On the other hand, Billy Donovan's squad has reached the Elite Eight in each of the past three years. They've been here before, they're hungry for more and they're as good as any team in the country on both ends of the court.
ATS pick: Florida
[h=3]No. 11 Dayton Flyers versus No. 10 Stanford Cardinal[/h]
LVH line: Stanford-2.5
PickCenter consensus pick: Stanford 53 percent
We're not going to talk about the Miller brothers in the same breath as we talk about the Harbaugh brothers in the NFL ... unless Archie and Sean can each pull off two more wins and send their respective teams to the Final Four. Archie's Flyers appear poised to do just that, matched up against a Stanford team that played very well last weekend but hasn't been able to maintain excellence for any extended stretch this season.
Stanford's A-game has been good enough to beat NCAA tournament teams UCLA, UConn, Arizona State and Oregon, while nearly upsetting Michigan and Arizona. But the Cardinal literally played dozens of times where their A-game was nowhere to be found. They have interior size with Dwight Powell and Stefan Nastic, but neither guy dominates the glass, blocks shots or avoids fouls. And offensive sparkplug Chasson Randle has struggled repeatedly when stepping up in defensive class.
Dayton proved its mettle by following up a huge upset win over Ohio State with an even more impressive upset against Syracuse two days later, demonstrating both mental and physical toughness in that victory. The Flyers have won outright four times in their past five tries as underdogs. That's an emerging trend worth riding again here against a spotty and vulnerable favorite.
ATS pick: Dayton
[h=3]No. 6 Baylor Bears versus No. 2 Wisconsin Badgers[/h]
LVH line: Wisconsin minus-3.5
PickCenter consensus pick: Baylor 55 percent
When closely examining Baylor's results in recent years, there's been a remarkable track record of postseason success. The Bears won the NIT last year, reached the Elite Eight in the 2012 Big Dance and won three games in three days in the Big 12 tourney this season before coming up short in the championship game. The Bears are in the Sweet 16 again this year, notching impressive wins over red-hot Nebraska and Big East powerhouse Creighton to get here.
With that said, the Bears went through a 2-8 SU slide in Big 12 play this season. They didn't reach the NCAA tourney last year because of a 4-9 run to close out conference play. For all the success Baylor has had in the Scott Drew era, there are clearly issues of consistency. And given the tremendous talent level on hand in Waco, there's an argument to be made that Baylor has underachieved, not overachieved, both this year and last.
Bo Ryan's teams rarely underachieve. While the Badgers went through their own midseason slump in the brutal Big Ten this season, they've come on strong down the stretch (11-2 SU in their past 13 games). Ben Brust, Sam Dekker, Josh Gasser, Traevon Jackson and Frank Kaminsky are all strong long-distance shooters, capable of hitting 3-pointers against the Baylor zone. The Badgers' last-second point-spread cover against Oregon was rather fraudulent, but I expect them to earn the cover this time around.
ATS pick: Wisconsin*
[h=3]No. 4 San Diego State Aztecs versus No. 1 Arizona Wildcats[/h]
LVH line: Arizona minus-7
PickCenter consensus pick: Arizona 54 percent
Arizona beat San Diego State 69-60 at Viejas Arena back in early November, the very first week of the season, and the Wildcats were in control for most of the game. San Diego State cut the lead to four points with less than two minutes to play, but couldn't get any closer and notched only six assists for the entire contest. Mountain West Conference Player of the Year Xavier Thames hit just 5-of-16 from the floor, and Arizona dominated the glass, with a plus-13 rebounding margin despite having multiple players in foul trouble.
Don't be fooled by the 20-point win Steve Fisher's squad just notched against feisty North Dakota State to reach the Sweet 16. The Bison missed shot after shot, particularly around the rim, despite the fact the Aztecs don't have a shot-blocker. And Thames was unstoppable in that contest, finishing with 30 points and five of San Diego State's eight assists.
San Diego State is going to be hard pressed to get that type of production from Thames against Arizona's championship-caliber defense. The Mountain West conference has been an ATS disaster area in every recent tournament; just 4-of-11 against the spread in the Big Dance over the past three years. I've got a future-book bet on the Wildcats to win the title and nothing I saw during the first weekend has changed my opinion about Arizona's tremendous upside.
ATS pick: Arizona*
[h=3]Tuley's take[/h]
Dayton Flyers plus-2.5 versus Stanford Cardinal
Both teams were good to me last week, as I started the tournament with a win on Dayton as the Flyers upset in-state rival Ohio State 60-59 as a six-point underdog and plus-260 on the money line. Then I had Stanford against Kansas on Sunday, which won 60-57 as a seven-point underdogs and plus-290 on the money line. I feel I had a pretty good handle on these teams, but unfortunately I didn't play the Flyers on Saturday in their 55-53 upset of Syracuse. That was the victory that ended up impressing me most of all.
I bought into all the talk about how Syracuse's zone is hard for opponents to deal with, especially with only two days to prepare in the opening round of the tournament. I also thought that Dayton would be so fat and happy after beating Ohio State that the Flyers would suffer the fate of so many NCAA Cinderella-wannabes and get brought back to earth in their next game. But it was Dayton's man-to-man defense that ruled the day, contesting shots and holding Syracuse without a 3-pointer.
Dayton is 11-0 when holding opponents to fewer than 60 points, and I foresee a similar game against Stanford, though the Flyers will probably be looking to run more. The LVH had the line at minus-2.5 as of Tuesday morning, but there are plenty of plus-3s out there and I'm hoping the line is more likely to rise even higher.
ATS pick: Dayton* (plus a lean on under 133).
[h=3]Best bets from PJ Walsh[/h]
Looking ahead to Thursday's slate of Sweet 16 games, we used our Bet Labs software to identify valuable betting opportunities. Because the sample size is simply too small to solely analyze past Sweet 16s, we included the Elite Eight, as well, and examined the entire second week/weekend of NCAA tournament games as a whole, dating back to 2005. Instantly, we found that underdogs have been undervalued, posting a 61-46 (57 percent) ATS record, since 2005. Using Bet Labs' "Spread Range Filter" we also determined that underdogs of greater than three points perform even better ATS, increasing our win rate to 59.7 percent.
However, just because a system has won in the past doesn't necessarily mean it is predictive and something that should be blindly followed by bettors. An easy way to determine if a system is worth betting is to develop a theory or real-world explanation.
In this system, it makes sense that as the NCAA tournament progresses, better teams generally advance to the later rounds. This doesn't necessarily mean the highest-seeded teams, but teams that also may have been underseeded or those currently playing at a high level. As better teams move on, there are fewer mismatches and therefore more evenly matched opponents. When teams are relatively equal in talent, coaching and expected performance, it's reasonable to assume that betting underdogs in these games and taking as many points as possible would be a winning a strategy, and our analysis backs that up.
UCLA Bruins (plus-4.5) over Florida Gators
Since the start of its conference tournament, UCLA has been playing extremely well, highlighted by a win over current NCAA tournament No. 1 seed Arizona in the Pac-12 title game. The Bruins have proven they can compete with the best teams in the country and, based on our analysis above, make a nice value play in the Sweet 16.
San Diego State Aztecs (plus-7) vs. Arizona Wildcats
In terms of seeds of its opponents, San Diego State has had a relatively easy path to the Sweet 16 with matchups against No. 13 seed New Mexico State and No. 12 seed North Dakota State. This soft recent schedule may be why the Aztecs are getting seven points, even though they've lost only four games the entire season. We like San Diego State at this number and believe it'll keep this game close enough to cover the spread.
The easiest strategy for picking point-spread winners in the NCAA tournament is to ignore the point spread completely, concentrating on picking straight-up winners. Of the 16 teams that reached the second weekend of the Big Dance, 15 covered the spread to get here. Michigan State was the only team to win but not cover, beating Harvard by only seven as 8.5-point favorites.
Of course, anyone who filled out a bracket will tell you that picking straight-up winners isn't necessarily much easier than picking point-spread winners here in March. We'll do our best to accomplish that task in this preview for Thursday's Sweet 16 matchups. Games are listed in Las Vegas rotation order and best bets are noted with an asterisk (*).
[h=3]No. 4 UCLA Bruins versus No. 1 Florida Gators[/h]
LVH line: Florida minus-4.5
PickCenter consensus pick: Florida 54 percent
Steve Alford's Bruins have enjoyed a relatively easy draw to reach the Sweet 16, knocking off undersized Tulsa and outclassed Stephen F. Austin. Their best player, 6-foot-9 Kyle Anderson, was a matchup nightmare for both of those squads, while 6-5 guard Jordan Adams was able to shoot over both defenses with relative ease.
But the Bruins must take a major step up in class as they face the No. 1 overall seed in the tournament. Their big men haven't been particularly productive. The Wear twins and Tony Parker -- UCLA's low-post trio -- are not strong offensive threats or dominating defenders. That's bad news against a Florida team with size to spare. Will Yeguete, at 6-8, can match up defensively with Anderson. And 6-9 Patric Young has dominated in six matchups against fellow Sweet 16 teams from the SEC, Tennessee and Kentucky, two teams with an ample supply of low-post size and muscle.<OFFER></OFFER>
UCLA hasn't reached the second weekend of the tournament since its Final Four trip back in 2008 and Alford never got any of his talented New Mexico teams into the Sweet 16. There's a sense of accomplishment for the Bruins just having gotten this far. On the other hand, Billy Donovan's squad has reached the Elite Eight in each of the past three years. They've been here before, they're hungry for more and they're as good as any team in the country on both ends of the court.
ATS pick: Florida
[h=3]No. 11 Dayton Flyers versus No. 10 Stanford Cardinal[/h]
LVH line: Stanford-2.5
PickCenter consensus pick: Stanford 53 percent
We're not going to talk about the Miller brothers in the same breath as we talk about the Harbaugh brothers in the NFL ... unless Archie and Sean can each pull off two more wins and send their respective teams to the Final Four. Archie's Flyers appear poised to do just that, matched up against a Stanford team that played very well last weekend but hasn't been able to maintain excellence for any extended stretch this season.
Stanford's A-game has been good enough to beat NCAA tournament teams UCLA, UConn, Arizona State and Oregon, while nearly upsetting Michigan and Arizona. But the Cardinal literally played dozens of times where their A-game was nowhere to be found. They have interior size with Dwight Powell and Stefan Nastic, but neither guy dominates the glass, blocks shots or avoids fouls. And offensive sparkplug Chasson Randle has struggled repeatedly when stepping up in defensive class.
Dayton proved its mettle by following up a huge upset win over Ohio State with an even more impressive upset against Syracuse two days later, demonstrating both mental and physical toughness in that victory. The Flyers have won outright four times in their past five tries as underdogs. That's an emerging trend worth riding again here against a spotty and vulnerable favorite.
ATS pick: Dayton
[h=3]No. 6 Baylor Bears versus No. 2 Wisconsin Badgers[/h]
LVH line: Wisconsin minus-3.5
PickCenter consensus pick: Baylor 55 percent
When closely examining Baylor's results in recent years, there's been a remarkable track record of postseason success. The Bears won the NIT last year, reached the Elite Eight in the 2012 Big Dance and won three games in three days in the Big 12 tourney this season before coming up short in the championship game. The Bears are in the Sweet 16 again this year, notching impressive wins over red-hot Nebraska and Big East powerhouse Creighton to get here.
With that said, the Bears went through a 2-8 SU slide in Big 12 play this season. They didn't reach the NCAA tourney last year because of a 4-9 run to close out conference play. For all the success Baylor has had in the Scott Drew era, there are clearly issues of consistency. And given the tremendous talent level on hand in Waco, there's an argument to be made that Baylor has underachieved, not overachieved, both this year and last.
Bo Ryan's teams rarely underachieve. While the Badgers went through their own midseason slump in the brutal Big Ten this season, they've come on strong down the stretch (11-2 SU in their past 13 games). Ben Brust, Sam Dekker, Josh Gasser, Traevon Jackson and Frank Kaminsky are all strong long-distance shooters, capable of hitting 3-pointers against the Baylor zone. The Badgers' last-second point-spread cover against Oregon was rather fraudulent, but I expect them to earn the cover this time around.
ATS pick: Wisconsin*
[h=3]No. 4 San Diego State Aztecs versus No. 1 Arizona Wildcats[/h]
LVH line: Arizona minus-7
PickCenter consensus pick: Arizona 54 percent
Arizona beat San Diego State 69-60 at Viejas Arena back in early November, the very first week of the season, and the Wildcats were in control for most of the game. San Diego State cut the lead to four points with less than two minutes to play, but couldn't get any closer and notched only six assists for the entire contest. Mountain West Conference Player of the Year Xavier Thames hit just 5-of-16 from the floor, and Arizona dominated the glass, with a plus-13 rebounding margin despite having multiple players in foul trouble.
Don't be fooled by the 20-point win Steve Fisher's squad just notched against feisty North Dakota State to reach the Sweet 16. The Bison missed shot after shot, particularly around the rim, despite the fact the Aztecs don't have a shot-blocker. And Thames was unstoppable in that contest, finishing with 30 points and five of San Diego State's eight assists.
San Diego State is going to be hard pressed to get that type of production from Thames against Arizona's championship-caliber defense. The Mountain West conference has been an ATS disaster area in every recent tournament; just 4-of-11 against the spread in the Big Dance over the past three years. I've got a future-book bet on the Wildcats to win the title and nothing I saw during the first weekend has changed my opinion about Arizona's tremendous upside.
ATS pick: Arizona*
[h=3]Tuley's take[/h]
Dayton Flyers plus-2.5 versus Stanford Cardinal
Both teams were good to me last week, as I started the tournament with a win on Dayton as the Flyers upset in-state rival Ohio State 60-59 as a six-point underdog and plus-260 on the money line. Then I had Stanford against Kansas on Sunday, which won 60-57 as a seven-point underdogs and plus-290 on the money line. I feel I had a pretty good handle on these teams, but unfortunately I didn't play the Flyers on Saturday in their 55-53 upset of Syracuse. That was the victory that ended up impressing me most of all.
I bought into all the talk about how Syracuse's zone is hard for opponents to deal with, especially with only two days to prepare in the opening round of the tournament. I also thought that Dayton would be so fat and happy after beating Ohio State that the Flyers would suffer the fate of so many NCAA Cinderella-wannabes and get brought back to earth in their next game. But it was Dayton's man-to-man defense that ruled the day, contesting shots and holding Syracuse without a 3-pointer.
Dayton is 11-0 when holding opponents to fewer than 60 points, and I foresee a similar game against Stanford, though the Flyers will probably be looking to run more. The LVH had the line at minus-2.5 as of Tuesday morning, but there are plenty of plus-3s out there and I'm hoping the line is more likely to rise even higher.
ATS pick: Dayton* (plus a lean on under 133).
[h=3]Best bets from PJ Walsh[/h]
Looking ahead to Thursday's slate of Sweet 16 games, we used our Bet Labs software to identify valuable betting opportunities. Because the sample size is simply too small to solely analyze past Sweet 16s, we included the Elite Eight, as well, and examined the entire second week/weekend of NCAA tournament games as a whole, dating back to 2005. Instantly, we found that underdogs have been undervalued, posting a 61-46 (57 percent) ATS record, since 2005. Using Bet Labs' "Spread Range Filter" we also determined that underdogs of greater than three points perform even better ATS, increasing our win rate to 59.7 percent.
However, just because a system has won in the past doesn't necessarily mean it is predictive and something that should be blindly followed by bettors. An easy way to determine if a system is worth betting is to develop a theory or real-world explanation.
In this system, it makes sense that as the NCAA tournament progresses, better teams generally advance to the later rounds. This doesn't necessarily mean the highest-seeded teams, but teams that also may have been underseeded or those currently playing at a high level. As better teams move on, there are fewer mismatches and therefore more evenly matched opponents. When teams are relatively equal in talent, coaching and expected performance, it's reasonable to assume that betting underdogs in these games and taking as many points as possible would be a winning a strategy, and our analysis backs that up.
UCLA Bruins (plus-4.5) over Florida Gators
Since the start of its conference tournament, UCLA has been playing extremely well, highlighted by a win over current NCAA tournament No. 1 seed Arizona in the Pac-12 title game. The Bruins have proven they can compete with the best teams in the country and, based on our analysis above, make a nice value play in the Sweet 16.
San Diego State Aztecs (plus-7) vs. Arizona Wildcats
In terms of seeds of its opponents, San Diego State has had a relatively easy path to the Sweet 16 with matchups against No. 13 seed New Mexico State and No. 12 seed North Dakota State. This soft recent schedule may be why the Aztecs are getting seven points, even though they've lost only four games the entire season. We like San Diego State at this number and believe it'll keep this game close enough to cover the spread.
