[h=1]Sunday's best tourney bets[/h][h=3]Smart plays for Elite Eight matchups of UK-Michigan, UConn-Michigan State[/h]By Ted Sevransky and Dave Tuley | ESPN Insider
Friday's action saw all four games in the NCAA tournament's Sweet 16 round go down to the final minute.
That's usually a good sign for underdog bettors, who were barking big-time as 'dogs went 4-0 ATS against the closing point spreads here in Las Vegas. Underdogs also went 6-2 ATS in the Sweet 16 round and my three best bets Thursday and Friday -- Dayton on Thursday, UConn and Kentucky on Friday -- all pulled outright upsets. It's been a great tourney overall for yours truly, as I also went 5-0 ATS with my best bets in Insider's NCAA tournament betting guide (along with also going 5-0 with over/unders) and 3-2 ATS in the round of 32 articles last weekend.
That's 16-2 (88.9 percent), but my overall winning percentage on actual wagers this tournament is closer to 70 percent because I've been making the right calls in what plays I designate as best bets here (and I've split my over/under plays since the opening round). But I'll still take that any day, month or season. Hopefully it doesn't end anytime soon.
If you're reading this Saturday, check out our plays along with those of Ted Sevransky for the initial Elite Eight games.
Here's a look at Sunday's doubleheader without a No. 1 seed in sight, but it includes four red-hot teams with deep basketball traditions.
Note: * denotes best bet
[h=3]No. 7 Connecticut Huskies versus No. 4 Michigan State Spartans[/h]
Las Vegas Hotel (LVH) line: Michigan State minus-5.5
PickCenter consensus pick: 50 percent each
Michigan State was hyped as a pre-tournament favorite to make it to the Final Four despite being a No. 4 seed in the Midwest Regional. And the Spartans have lived up to those expectations, at least as far as surviving and advancing is concerned. Bettors aren't as pleased with them, as a little-known fact (though it's getting a lot more mention) is that they are the only team in the Elite Eight that hasn't covered a spread yet. Michigan State pushed in its 15-point win against Delaware in its first-round game (yes, we know the NCAA calls it the second round but it's still really the first round) and then won but did not cover in its wins over Harvard and Virginia.
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Now, this isn't to say that Michigan State shouldn't be respected, but it gives a lot of hope for underdog bettors now that the Spartans are being asked to cover a 5.5-point spread (the line opened at 6 and was bet down in early wagering Friday night). UConn was lucky to survive its opener against Saint Joe's, as the Huskies rallied to force overtime but then covered the 5-point spread in the extra five minutes. Since then they've won outright as underdogs against Villanova and Iowa State.
Shabazz Napier runs the show and can take over games when he needs to, but his supporting cast has also shown it can stand up to anyone (and DeAndre Daniels really stepped up against Iowa State). I except this will be a back-and-forth battle, and while Michigan State might very well live up to expectations and be heading to North Texas, I like the 'dog to cover the number.
ATS pick: Connecticut
[h=3]No. 8 Kentucky Wildcats versus No. 2 Michigan Wolverines[/h]
Las Vegas Hotel (LVH) line: Kentucky minus-2
PickCenter consensus pick: 58 percent picked Kentucky
This is a tough call, as I really like both teams. I obviously like Kentucky (not only because I lived in Lexington in 1993-94) as the Wildcats came through for me against Louisville on Friday night. But Kentucky is also clearly a team peaking at the right time and living up to all the preseason hype. The Wildcats' inside game with Julius Randle & Co. keeps pounding you, and they can also hit the clutch 3-pointer when needed as Aaron Harrison showed with 39 seconds left to put them ahead of Louisville.
A lot of people are giving them their props now, as they're favored to beat No. 2 seed Michigan. But the Wolverines are impressive in their own right. No team is better at moving the ball around and getting open shots -- including uncontested treys -- and it wouldn't shock me if Michigan ends up on its way to North Texas. However, in breaking down which team is more likely to do that, I land on the more talented Wildcats. There's more of a chance of Michigan's outside shots not hitting at their previous rate than Kentucky's inside game drying up. With the Wildcats now laying points (the line opened pick-em), I don't like it enough to call it a best bet.
ATS pick: Kentucky
[h=3]Teddy Covers on Sunday's regional finals[/h]
Michigan State minus-5.5 versus Connecticut
Michigan State is the only team still standing without earning a single point spread cover in any of the first three rounds of the Big Dance (two ATS losses following a push in their opening game). The barrage of hype that the Spartans received following their dominating performance in the Big Ten tournament has not done their supporters any favors. But this is no typical Tom Izzo-coached team.
The Spartans are as difficult to defend offensively as any team in the country -- all five starters are capable of putting the ball on the floor to drive to the basket, and four of them can hit from 3-point range as well. UConn hit 52 percent from the floor and 91 percent from the charity stripe in its win over Iowa State Friday, but I'm not expecting anywhere near that level of production against the stout Spartans defense. It's time for Michigan State to finally cover a spread.
ATS pick: Michigan State
Kentucky minus-2 versus Michigan
There was intense point spread drama involving both of these teams on Friday night. Michigan blew a 10-point lead in the final 3½ minutes, winning by only two in a game where the point spread bounced around between minus-1.5 and minus-2.5. Kentucky trailed throughout, but outscored Louisville 15-3 over the final four minutes, earning not only the cover, but the outright upset.
The Wolverines are now 7-1 ATS in the Big Dance over the past two years, but Kentucky has won nine NCAA tournament games in a row dating back to its title run in 2012 (7-2 ATS; the noncovers came by a combined total of two points, as big favorites each time).
The Wildcats were the preseason No. 1 team in the country for a reason. John Calipari's roster, even without the injured Willie Cauley-Stein, still trumps the Wolverines in overall talent. And after Kentucky played brilliantly during crunch time in each of its past two tourney wins over elite foes, I'm impressed enough with the Wildcats' poise and maturity to call for it to continue Sunday.
ATS pick: Kentucky*
Friday's action saw all four games in the NCAA tournament's Sweet 16 round go down to the final minute.
That's usually a good sign for underdog bettors, who were barking big-time as 'dogs went 4-0 ATS against the closing point spreads here in Las Vegas. Underdogs also went 6-2 ATS in the Sweet 16 round and my three best bets Thursday and Friday -- Dayton on Thursday, UConn and Kentucky on Friday -- all pulled outright upsets. It's been a great tourney overall for yours truly, as I also went 5-0 ATS with my best bets in Insider's NCAA tournament betting guide (along with also going 5-0 with over/unders) and 3-2 ATS in the round of 32 articles last weekend.
That's 16-2 (88.9 percent), but my overall winning percentage on actual wagers this tournament is closer to 70 percent because I've been making the right calls in what plays I designate as best bets here (and I've split my over/under plays since the opening round). But I'll still take that any day, month or season. Hopefully it doesn't end anytime soon.
If you're reading this Saturday, check out our plays along with those of Ted Sevransky for the initial Elite Eight games.
Here's a look at Sunday's doubleheader without a No. 1 seed in sight, but it includes four red-hot teams with deep basketball traditions.
Note: * denotes best bet
[h=3]No. 7 Connecticut Huskies versus No. 4 Michigan State Spartans[/h]
Las Vegas Hotel (LVH) line: Michigan State minus-5.5
PickCenter consensus pick: 50 percent each
Michigan State was hyped as a pre-tournament favorite to make it to the Final Four despite being a No. 4 seed in the Midwest Regional. And the Spartans have lived up to those expectations, at least as far as surviving and advancing is concerned. Bettors aren't as pleased with them, as a little-known fact (though it's getting a lot more mention) is that they are the only team in the Elite Eight that hasn't covered a spread yet. Michigan State pushed in its 15-point win against Delaware in its first-round game (yes, we know the NCAA calls it the second round but it's still really the first round) and then won but did not cover in its wins over Harvard and Virginia.
<OFFER></OFFER>
Now, this isn't to say that Michigan State shouldn't be respected, but it gives a lot of hope for underdog bettors now that the Spartans are being asked to cover a 5.5-point spread (the line opened at 6 and was bet down in early wagering Friday night). UConn was lucky to survive its opener against Saint Joe's, as the Huskies rallied to force overtime but then covered the 5-point spread in the extra five minutes. Since then they've won outright as underdogs against Villanova and Iowa State.
Shabazz Napier runs the show and can take over games when he needs to, but his supporting cast has also shown it can stand up to anyone (and DeAndre Daniels really stepped up against Iowa State). I except this will be a back-and-forth battle, and while Michigan State might very well live up to expectations and be heading to North Texas, I like the 'dog to cover the number.
ATS pick: Connecticut
[h=3]No. 8 Kentucky Wildcats versus No. 2 Michigan Wolverines[/h]
Las Vegas Hotel (LVH) line: Kentucky minus-2
PickCenter consensus pick: 58 percent picked Kentucky
This is a tough call, as I really like both teams. I obviously like Kentucky (not only because I lived in Lexington in 1993-94) as the Wildcats came through for me against Louisville on Friday night. But Kentucky is also clearly a team peaking at the right time and living up to all the preseason hype. The Wildcats' inside game with Julius Randle & Co. keeps pounding you, and they can also hit the clutch 3-pointer when needed as Aaron Harrison showed with 39 seconds left to put them ahead of Louisville.
A lot of people are giving them their props now, as they're favored to beat No. 2 seed Michigan. But the Wolverines are impressive in their own right. No team is better at moving the ball around and getting open shots -- including uncontested treys -- and it wouldn't shock me if Michigan ends up on its way to North Texas. However, in breaking down which team is more likely to do that, I land on the more talented Wildcats. There's more of a chance of Michigan's outside shots not hitting at their previous rate than Kentucky's inside game drying up. With the Wildcats now laying points (the line opened pick-em), I don't like it enough to call it a best bet.
ATS pick: Kentucky
[h=3]Teddy Covers on Sunday's regional finals[/h]
Michigan State minus-5.5 versus Connecticut
Michigan State is the only team still standing without earning a single point spread cover in any of the first three rounds of the Big Dance (two ATS losses following a push in their opening game). The barrage of hype that the Spartans received following their dominating performance in the Big Ten tournament has not done their supporters any favors. But this is no typical Tom Izzo-coached team.
The Spartans are as difficult to defend offensively as any team in the country -- all five starters are capable of putting the ball on the floor to drive to the basket, and four of them can hit from 3-point range as well. UConn hit 52 percent from the floor and 91 percent from the charity stripe in its win over Iowa State Friday, but I'm not expecting anywhere near that level of production against the stout Spartans defense. It's time for Michigan State to finally cover a spread.
ATS pick: Michigan State
Kentucky minus-2 versus Michigan
There was intense point spread drama involving both of these teams on Friday night. Michigan blew a 10-point lead in the final 3½ minutes, winning by only two in a game where the point spread bounced around between minus-1.5 and minus-2.5. Kentucky trailed throughout, but outscored Louisville 15-3 over the final four minutes, earning not only the cover, but the outright upset.
The Wolverines are now 7-1 ATS in the Big Dance over the past two years, but Kentucky has won nine NCAA tournament games in a row dating back to its title run in 2012 (7-2 ATS; the noncovers came by a combined total of two points, as big favorites each time).
The Wildcats were the preseason No. 1 team in the country for a reason. John Calipari's roster, even without the injured Willie Cauley-Stein, still trumps the Wolverines in overall talent. And after Kentucky played brilliantly during crunch time in each of its past two tourney wins over elite foes, I'm impressed enough with the Wildcats' poise and maturity to call for it to continue Sunday.
ATS pick: Kentucky*
