Soriano12 MLB 2014

Soriano12 · Mar 31, 2014

Took SEA +123 and ATL -105 last Sunday, but for this thread will count them at the current lines. Will always use lines by pinnacle, greek or betonline, should vary between 1-5 for most part.

SEA ML +115 1.5units
ATL ML -112 3units
Tampa Team Total under 4 -135 3units
NYM (1st 5) +0.5 -101 1unit

Weaver declining, Hernandez should almost never be a dog, better bullpen.
Gallardo bad spring, overall hasn't been really good for 1.5 years, MIL will miss Aokis OBP, weak bullpen, Teheran strong spring, best Braves starter, very good bullpen.
Tampa never has hit well vs Dickey
Strasburg almost always kind of overvalued by the betting market, Gee had a great spring after a strong 2nd half, pitched well vs WSH last year and just can't justify him being such a huge underdog at home.

Akillies · Mar 31, 2014

king felix is the man
good to see u posting plays, couldnt pay for info this good
i dont get the milw love either,, as they are a trendy over play by some smart people

Soriano12 · Mar 31, 2014

Don't know how long I'll keep it up, short vacation coming up anyways on April 10th (doing the BAS and going on a cruise *lol*).

Guess those ppl think Gallardo bounces back and Braun won't miss half a season plus addition of Garza. But imo Garza will disappoint, miss a bunch of time injured and give up many HRs in Miller Park, guess we'll see. Offense still has lots of potential with Segura, Braun, Ramirez, Gomez when healthy, but myself, I'm just not that high on their pitching (Lohse is underrated, but might start to regress a bit, rest imo is mediocre at best).

Btw, the season win totals I ended up with this year:
ATL u87.5 +100
BAL o79 -120 / u82 -130 (1unit left on the over, chance to hit the middle)
Greinke o14.5 wins -115
Wacha o11.5 wins -115

NYM o74 -110
NYY u87 -115
ARI o81.5 +102 / u81.5 -110 (bought back half of my bet after Corbin went down for the season, just 1unit left)
OAK u88.5 -115

All of these for 2 units, except the two I bought back.
Plus I put 5 more units on OAK u88.5 -123, just can't picture them winning 89+ in that division after losing Colon + Parker plus at least 4-5 starts by Griffin before the season even has started, while just having added Kazmir. That's losing like 450 quality innings and bringing in maybe 150.

Soriano12 · Mar 31, 2014

Akillies said:
good to see u posting plays, couldnt pay for info this good

Tail me on your own risk though, have been ice cold for the last week, MLB so far 1-2 on pitcher props and 0-1 on bets (went with ARI +0.5 1st 5 in game 2, didn't pull the trigger on the under 3.5 or SD +0 last night).

Akillies · Mar 31, 2014

atl and nyy unders i see as free money
oak should be under as well, but you never can count them out as they pull pitching out there ass

Soriano12 · Mar 31, 2014

SEA pending, 1-2 --> -5.01 units

Tuesday taking ATL again despite them swinging at a shitload of balls outside the strikezone. Wood will face most of the Brewers for the 1st time, looked really strong in spring training and Lohse struggled, gave up some longballs:
ATL ML +106 2units

thekeyman · Mar 31, 2014

good luck my friend

Soriano12 · Apr 1, 2014

Thanks keyman, BOL to you too. If only the Pirates could play the Cubs 161 more times *g*

SEA comes back to win, so 2-2, but thanks to losing the higher stakes ones still --> -3.28 units
Will probably stick just with Wood today.

Soriano12 · Apr 1, 2014

Adding:
CLE +0 (1st 5 Innings) +120 2units

Seems like many ppl are on the Indians today, sherwood already pointed out most things: Kazmir looked mediocre in spring, struggled with his control and also was pushed back because of slight discomfort in his arm. Also don't like that he has to pitch vs his former team, pretty sure they will make him work and take advantage of his shaky control + the H2H vs CLEs batters looks terrible, but that's based on past results. The Kazmir of today is a different pitcher and CLE pretty much fields the same offense like last year, when they lead the league in AVG, OBP and OPS (3rd in SLG) vs lefties. Imo nice value getting CLE at plus money in this spot

Akillies · Apr 1, 2014

random points:
O's - success ultimately depends on the pitching, especially the new bullpen. But i think they could have the best everyday lineup in mlb.
cruz is a major impact, as his presence is worth more than his production, meaning he offers protection to the others around him as well as benefiting from their presence. love hardy, wieters and markakis both have large upside. if machado comes back close to as good as ever they will score big.

Mets - start of a trend already, big dog cashes for first five and pen blows the game. could be very profitable

Milw - won, tossed a shutout. still not high on this bunch. dont see a + in any one area.
atl - not good, still should be much better than milw.
Rockies - explosive lineup, several of the best players in the game today. should be an over machine.
Oakland - finally overrated, as expectations were always low before this year.

Soriano12 · Apr 1, 2014

Agree on Baltimore but think their pitching is a tad underrated. Not a real ace but 4-5 quality guys plus they might get a midseason boost if Bundy comes back after TJ surgery and indeed is the real deal. But even without that Tillman, Ubaldo, Chen & Gonzalez will keep them in pretty much every game thanks to their offense strong defense and a very good bullpen (imo "losing" Jim Johnson only hurt their depth, I like Hunter better as a closer anyways).

Mets bullpen will be a huge ? especially after Parnells injury, but 1st 5 they should be a nice bet (NYM as a dog or under) thanks to their underrated starting pitching.

Gallardo looked ok, but that first game to me was more about an overrated Braves offense than strong MIL pitching. Lots of freeswinging strikeoutprone batters like Gattis, (BJ) Upton, Uggla etc...bullpen might be decent though with guys like Kintzler, K-Rod, Henderson and maybe I didn't give their offense enough credit: Braun/Ramirez is pretty much as good of a 1-2 punch as you can find out there plus Segura, Gomez, Maldonado...that's actually pretty good.

Rockies - not sure what makes you say that: On paper good offense, but vs Jose Fernandez they didn't do much (ok, will happen to many more teams), but also Eovaldi is shutting them down so far.

OAK - wouldn't call them overrated, offense still doesn't really get lots of credit imo. Will be interesting to see how they will be priced in the next couple of weeks due to their high season total...probably will go against Kazmir quite a bit.

CC looks like shit, Kuroda is due for a regression, so those two should provide lots of value to bet against (rather big names + Yanks almost always overrated due to their name). Pineda on the other hand might provide some nice odds, looked really good in spring...

Akillies · Apr 1, 2014

cant believe i am not on the stros, forget how far CC had regressed and i think the stros are doing it the right way, blow it up and go with youth

Soriano12 · Apr 1, 2014

Nobody should overreact to just 1-2 games at the beginning of a loooong season, but ATLs offense looks really bad so far with Heyward, Freeman and Johnson being the exceptions. Might be lots of value in betting the under (with Teheran/Wood and maybe Minor pitching) or against the Braves. Especially against pitchers with a high groundball rate & good control.
Garza and his tendency of giving up the long ball might make for a better matchup tomorrow though....

Soriano12 · Apr 1, 2014

CLE ppd, ATL wins, so new record:

3-2 --> -1.16 units

Have to take another look later on, so far nothing tomorrow that I really like. Harang/Garza looked like a nice over bet 1st 5, but don't half the Braves lineup looks lost at the plate so far and Harang looked surprisingly decent in spring + getaway game, so probably will pass on that one.

Akillies · Apr 2, 2014

that is funny cause i came to the same conclusions: atl is bad, harrang last i saw was an absolute gas can, since we were on atl last two days i was watching and thinking how bad they are going to be, if they dont hit hrs they dont score and have no chance at winning.
Millw. i have downgraded even more, lohse looked like i could hit him
Rockies conversely i think the market has under rated, for the same situation as Milw , missing star players last year. So far they have showed nothing and cost me.

What do you think about fading the yankees every day? at least till the market catches up and downgrades them, i see them as a last place team.

I m fading kazmir today based on your info and i think the market has oak to high.

Soriano12 · Apr 2, 2014

Want to wait & see on the Yanks a bit. But thanks to Jeter their infield defense should be rather bad and I expect them to get below avg offensive production from all 4 infield spots, so yes, they probably will be overrated. But I'm rather high on Tanaka, Kuroda should be good despite a regression after last years great season & Pineda looked good. So would hold back on fading them (even though Tanaka and possibly Kuroda will probably be made huge favorites in many games, so they might be overvalued even if they pitched great).
But outside of CC I'll probably will look more into matchups on a nightly bases and maybe lean towards betting the under 1st 5.

Soriano12 · Apr 2, 2014

MIN/CHW over 4 runs (1st 5inn) -110 1unit
ATL/MIL over 4.5 runs (1st 5inn) -110 1.5 units

Correia below average pitcher with good control, so I don't like Iassogna behind the plate, but h2h looks good and his spring performances didn't look too impressive. MIN offense sucks, but Paulino averaged almost 2 baserunners per inning in spring, struggled mightily with his control (which isn't that unusual after TJ and he hadn't the best control pre-TJ to begin with) and gives up his fair share of longballs.
Schrieber calls a very tight strikezone, Garza always had trouble with that kind of umpire and was really bad in spring. I'm not high on the Braves offense, but if they are patient today and guys like the Uptons don't chase pitches outside the zone again, tight zone + bad control + HR prone pitcher + offense living by the gopherball = runs...Harang had a good spring, but got roughed up in his last outing, MIL will bench Segura/Weeks but still fields their potent heart of the order (Gomez, Braun, Ramirez, Maldonado) plus Overbay has crushed Harang in his career (11/24 with 5 doubles). With a tight k-zone Harang should give up runs here, too.

Akillies · Apr 2, 2014

took a shot w/ the minn ov both ff and game
u still fading kazzmir ?

Soriano12 · Apr 2, 2014

Just those two overs...crappy approach, not taking any pitches even chasing after balls at 2-0 or 3-1 counts against that type of pitchers...well, maybe better luck tomorrow, will stay away from the rest.
Only other bet is a prop on Kuroda over 4.5K -115.

Akillies · Apr 3, 2014

on the surface it would seem both MIlw and Atl have had great pitching, if you were watching the games what you could conclude [as sori mentions above] these teams have some major hitting deficiencies. I dont think harrang is winning the cy young anytime soon. Garza may be for real.

Kazmir was locked in. stillll no velocity, but had pinpoint control, which had been his biggest problem