Service Plays Thursday 4/3/14

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NIT Championship betting preview: Southern Methodist vs. Minnesota

Southern Methodist Mustangs vs. Minnesota Golden Gophers (+3, 132.5)

Southern Methodist looks for its first NIT title in program history when it faces Minnesota in New York on Thursday. The Mustangs erased a 13-point deficit in the second half to beat Clemson 65-59 for their fourth win in a row after being controversially left out of the NCAA tournament. "We haven't had a lot of nice things happen at SMU for a long, long time," coach Larry Brown admitted to reporters. "So if we are fortunate enough to win a championship like this and I am a part of it, it would be pretty neat."

Minnesota advanced to its second NIT championship game in the last three years after holding off Florida State 67-64 in overtime. The Golden Gophers were blown out 75-51 by Stanford in the 2012 final and hope to take care of business this time around after squandering a 15-point lead against the Seminoles before squeaking out a victory. "We really didn't want it to end," senior guard Austin Hollins told reporters. The guys really stuck together in overtime and played as hard as we could."

TV: 7 p.m. ET, ESPN

LINE HISTORY: The Gophers opened as 3-point dogs with the total holding at 132.5.

INJURY REPORT: SMU: C Yanick Moreira (Qut for season, knee). Minnesota: C Elliott Eliason (Questionable, ankle), F Oto Osenieks (Out indefinitely, knee)

WHAT THE SHARPS SAY: "SMU should have been in the NCAA tournament, and they are playing with a purpose in the NIT. The Mustangs have the better coach with veteran Larry Brown facing inexperienced Richard Pitino, and that’s a big edge in a championship game. Both teams used a lot of energy in their semifinal wins Tuesday night as SMU overcame a 12-point halftime deficit, while Minnesota blew a late lead and needed overtime for the eventual win." Covers Expert Steve Merril.

WHAT THE BOOKS SAY: "Larry Brown leads his 27 win SMU Mustangs into the NIT final against the Minnesota Golden Gophers. SMU comes in to this matchup as a 3 point favorite, however we are seeing the majority of our action back the underdog Gophers on both the money line and the spread." Michael Stewart, CarbonSports.ag

WHY BET MINNESOTA (24-13 SU, 16-16-1 ATS, 14-17-1 O/U: Austin Hollins and DeAndre Mathieu each scored 17 points and Maurice Walker made six free throws in overtime to lift the Golden Gophers over Florida State. Minnesota has won the NIT in 1993 and 1998, but the last title was vacated due to an academic scandal. Andre Hollins tops the team in scoring (13.6), but has averaged just 7.2 points in four tournament games.

WHY BET SOUTHERN METHODIST (27-9 SU, 20-12 ATS, 12-19 O/U): Markus Kennedy has played some of his best basketball of the season in the NIT and recorded 21 points, nine rebounds and three steals versus Clemson. Brown is the only coach to win an NBA and NCAA championship and can add an NIT title to his impressive collection with a win on Thursday. SMU can equal a program record set by the 1987-88 team for most victories in a season with 28 if it beats Minnesota.

TRENDS:

* Mustangs are 5-1 ATS in their last six non-conference games.
* Golden Gophers are 2-5 ATS in their last seven neutral site games.
* Under is 8-3 in Mustangs last 11 overall.
* Over is 13-6-1 in Golden Gophers last 20 neutral site games.

COVERS CONSENSUS: 70 percent of wagers are on SMU at -3.

Thursday's MLB American League betting cheat sheet
By SPORTSDIRECT INC.

Check out our quick-hitting betting notes for Thursday's American League games:

Kansas City Royals at Detroit Tigers ()

Hot pitching stat: Tigers right-hander Anibal Sanchez went 8-3 with a 2.70 ERA in 14 home starts last season.

Cold batting stat: Royals infielder Eric Hosmer has just three hits in 16 career at-bats against Sanchez.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the high-30s with showers expected and wind blowing from left to right field at 13 mph.

Key betting note: Detroit is 7-1 in Sanchez's last eight starts against the American League Central.

Minnesota Twins at Chicago White Sox ()

Cold pitching stat: Twins right-hander Phil Hughes allowed opposing hitters to bat .293 against him in 2013.

Hot batting stat: Minnesota catcher Joe Mauer is 6-for-12 with two homers and four RBIs lifetime against White Sox lefty Jose Quintana.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the mid-30s with a 64 percent chance of thunderstorms and wind blowing in from left field at 13 mph.

Key betting note: Under is 6-1 in Minnesota's last seven road games versus left-handed starters.

Boston Red Sox at Baltimore Orioles ()

Cold pitching stat: Red Sox left-hander Felix Doubront pasted a 7.11 ERA in 12 2/3 innings versus the Orioles last year.

Hot batting stat: Members of the Boston roster are hitting a combined .366 against Orioles starter Wei-Yin Chen.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the mid-50s with a 51 percent chance of rain and wind blowing from right to left field at 7 mph.

Key betting note: Orioles are 7-1 in their last eight home games against left-handed starters.

Toronto Blue Jays at Tampa Bay Rays ()

Cold pitching stat: Blue Jays right-hander Brandon Morrow allowed 12 home runs in just 54 1/3 innings in 2013.

Hot batting stat: Rays outfielder Desmond Jennings is 7-of-13 with four solo home runs in his career against Morrow.

Weather: N/A

Key betting note: Blue Jays are 1-5 in Morrow's last six road starts.

New York Yankees at Houston Astros ()

Cold pitching stat: Yankees right-hander Ivan Nova was 2-3 with a 4.40 ERA in nine road appearances last season.

Cold batting stat: Members of the New York roster have just three hits in 14 at-bats against Astros starter Brett Oberholtzer.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the mid-70s with a 30 percent chance of a thunderstorm and wind blowing out to center field at 8 mph.

Key betting note: Yankees are 0-7 in Nova's previous seven Thursday starts.

Seattle Mariners at Oakland Athletics ()

Hot pitching stat: Athletics veteran Jesse Chavez limited right-handed hitters to a .212 average last season.

Hot batting stat: Mariners first baseman Corey Hart is 2-for-4 with a pair of RBIs lifetime against Chavez.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the mid-50s with cloudy skies and wind blowing out to right field at 7 mph.

Key betting note: Over is 7-1-1 in Seattle's last nine Thursday games.

** Odds, stats, weather forecast and probable pitchers as of 12:10 p.m. ET Wednesday.

Thursday's MLB National League betting cheat sheet

Check out our quick-hitting betting notes for Thursday's National League games:

Chicago Cubs at Pittsburgh Pirates ()

Hot pitching stat: Cubs starter Jason Hammel went 4-1 with a 3.79 ERA in six April starts a season ago.

Cold batting stat: Pirates catcher Russell Martin has just one hit in nine career at-bats versus Hammel.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the mid-50s with rain expected and wind blowing in from center field at 7 mph.

Key betting note: Under is 8-2 in umpire James Hoye's last 10 games behind home plate.

St. Louis Cardinals at Cincinnati Reds ()

Cold pitching stat: Reds hurler Homer Bailey sported a 4.33 ERA in day games last season, compared to a 2.86 mark in night outings.

Hot batting stat: Cincinnati outfielder Jay Bruce is 6-of-14 with a homer and four RBIs lifetime against Cardinals righty Lance Lynn.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the high-60s with rain and thunderstorms anticipated and wind blowing in from right field at 13 mph.

Key betting note: Cardinals are 3-8 in Lynn's last 11 road starts.

Colorado Rockies at Miami Marlins ()

Cold pitching stat: Marlins right-hander Jacob Turner lost both of his starts against Colorado in 2013.

Hot batting stat: Rockies infielder Nolan Arenado went 3-for-6 with a pair of RBIs against Turner last season.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the low-80s under clear skies with wind blowing from right to left field at 14 mph.

Key betting note: Marlins are 3-13 in Turner's last 16 starts.

Washington Nationals at New York Mets ()

Cold pitching stat: Nationals righty Jordan Zimmermann went 1-3 with a 3.62 ERA in five starts versus the Mets last year.

Hot/ batting stat: Nationals shortstop Ian Desmond went 3-for-8 with two RBIs against Mets starter Zach Wheeler last season.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the high-50s with partly cloudy skies.

Key betting note: Nationals are 22-4 in their last 26 Thursday games.

San Francisco Giants at Arizona Diamondbacks ()

Hot pitching stat: Diamondbacks starter Bronson Arroyo went 2-0 with a 0.90 ERA in two starts against the Giants in 2013.

Hot batting stat: Arizona first baseman Paul Goldschmidt is 11-for-20 with five home runs in his career against San Francisco starter Tim Lincecum.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the low-70s with sunny skies and wind blowing from left to right field at 6 mph.

Key betting note: Over is 11-3-1 in Lincecum's last 15 road starts versus teams with losing records.

** Odds, stats, weather forecast and probable pitchers as of 1:40 p.m. ET Wednesday.

NBA

Hot teams
-- Spurs won 19 games in a row, covered 12 of last 13. Thunderr won six of their last seven.
-- Dallas is 5-0 in games following their last five losses. Clippers won eight of their last ten games.

Cold Teams
-- None

Series records
-- Spurs lost nine of last eleven games with Oklahoma City.
-- Clippers won six of last seven games with Dallas.

Totals
-- Seven of last eight Spur games stayed under total.
-- Six of last seven Dallas games went over the total.

MLB

Hot pitchers
-- WRodriguez was 4-2, 3.16 in his last six starts before getting hurt LY.
-- Zimmerman is 4-1, 2.83 in his last five starts.
-- Lincecum is 4-1, 3.83 in his last seven starts.

-- Quintana is 2-1, 2.30 in his last four starts.
-- Archer is 1-0, 3.38 in his last four starts.
-- Oberholtzer has a 2.78 RA in his last five starts.


Cold pitchers
-- Hammel is 0-3, 5.93 in his last five starts.
-- Lynn is 1-2, 5.87 in his last three starts. Bailey is 1-2, 4.74 in his last three.
-- Turner is 0-3, 8.16 in his last three starts. Morales has made 25 big league starts, only 10 since '09, one LY. He was 2-2, 4.62 in 25 innings for Boston LY.
-- Wheeler is 1-3, 3.81 in his last five starts.
-- Arroyo is 1-2, 4.80 in his last five starts.

-- Sanchez is 0-3, 8.22 in his last three home starts. Ventura is 0-1, 3.52 in three MLB starts.
-- Hughes is 0-1, 6.48 in his last three starts.
-- Chen is 2-2, 5.40 in his last four starts. Doubront is 1-0, 7.54 in his last three.
-- Morrow is 1-1, 8.36 in his last three starts.
-- Nova is 0-1, 5.94 in his last three road starts.
-- Elias is making first MLB start; he was 6-11, 3.18 in 22 AA starts last year. Chavez allowed ten runs in 8.2 IP in his only two MLB starts, in 2012.

Totals
-- Five of last seven Hammel starts stayed under.
-- Four of last five Bailey starts stayed under total.
-- Over is 4-1-1 in last six Turner starts.
-- Three of last four Zimmerman starts went over.
-- Six of last seven Arroyo starts went over total.

-- Over is 4-0-2 in last six Sanchez starts.
-- Last five Quintana starts stayed under.
-- Five of last seven Chen starts went over.
-- Last seven Morrow starts went over total.
-- Under is 4-0-1 in last five Oberholtzer starts.
-- First three Seattle games went over the total.

Hot teams
-- Pirates won their first two games.
-- Nationals won their first two games.

-- Tigers won their first two games.
-- White Sox won their first two games.
-- Astros won their first two games.
-- Mariners won their first three games.

Cold teams
-- Cubs lost their first two games, scoring three runs.
-- Mets lost their first two games.
-- Arizona lost four of its first five games.

-- Royals lost their first two games.
-- Minnesota lost its first two games.
-- Bronx lost its first two games.

Umpires (obviously, these are last year's stats)
-- Stl-Cin-- Home side is 13-4 in last 17 Barksdale games.
-- Chi-Pitt-- Eight of last ten Hoye games stayed under.
-- Col-Mia-- Under is 10-1-2 in last thirteen Estabrook games.
-- Wsh-NY-- Nine of last 12 Timmons games went over total.
-- SF-Az-- Hoberg-- This is the first MLB game for this umpire.

-- KC-Det-- Under is 10-4-1 in last fifteen Conroy games.
-- Minn-Chi-- Underdogs won five of last seven Bucknor games.
-- Bos-Balt-- Home teams won last five Hickox games.
-- Tor-TB-- Favorites won nine of last twelve Rackley games.
-- NY-Hst-- Underdogs won six of last eight Knight games.

NHL

Hot teams
-- Blue Jackets are 6-1 in games following their last seven losses.
-- Dallas Stars won five of their last six games.
-- Lightning won three of their last four games.
-- Bruins won 15 of their last 17 games.
-- Minnesota won four of its last six road games.
-- Blues won four of their last five games.
-- Rangers won seven of their last eight games. Colorado won its last four games, three in either OT or SO.
-- Los Angeles won seven of its last eight games.


Cold teams
-- Flyers lost four of their last five games.
-- Hurricanes lost their last three home games.
-- Flames lost three of their last four games.
-- Maple Leafs lost eight of their last nine games.
-- Blackhawks lost four of their last five games.
-- Sabres lost 11 of their last 13 games.
-- Penguins/Jets both lost four of their last six games.
-- San Jose lost four of its last six games.

Totals
-- Eight of last nine Columbus games stayed under total.
-- Seven of last ten Dallas games went over the total; eight of last nine Carolina games went under the total.
-- Three of last four Tama Bay games stayed under total.
-- Five of last seven Toronto games went over the total.
-- Over is 5-1-2 in last eight Minnesota games.
-- Over is 3-1-1 in last five Buffalo games.
-- Under is 5-0-1 in last six Pittsburgh games.
-- Under is 3-1-1 in last five Ranger road games.
-- Three of last four San Jose games stayed under.

Series records
-- Flyers lost three of last four games with Columbus.
-- Blue Jackets lost their last four games with Dallas.
-- Lightning won three of last four games with Calgary.
-- Bruins won four of last five games with Toronto.
-- Blackhawks lost three of four games with Minnesota this season.
-- Blues won their last three games with Buffalo.
-- Penguins won 10 of last 12 games with Winnipeg.
-- Rangers lost three of last four games with Colorado.
-- Kings won four of last five games with San Jose.

NCAA Basketball Picks

SMU vs. Minnesota

The Mustangs look to capture tonight's NIT final and come into the contest against Minnesota (24-13) with an 11-4 ATS record in their last 15 games against teams with a winning SU record. SMU is the pick (-2 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Mustangs favored by 5 1/2. Dunkel Pick: SMU (-2 1/2). Here are all of today's games and this weekend's Final Four matchups.

Today's MLB Picks

St. Louis at Cincinnati

After splitting the first two games of the series, the Cardinals try to take Game 3 today and come in with a 5-1 record in Lance Lynn's last 6 starts versus the Reds. St. Louis is the pick (+100) according to Dunkel, which has the Cardinals favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (+100). Here are all of today's picks.

spartan | MLB Money Line Thu, 04/03/14 - 12:35 PM
dime bet ml 952 CIN (-110) 5dimes vs 951 STL
Analysis: none given

Pick Made: Apr 2 2014 7:25PM PST

Free Selection from Arthur Ralph Sports

Bonus Play THURS SMU -2

Gamblers Data

Bonus Plays Thursday

Rockies-Marlins over 7.5

Tampa Bay -155

STATSYSTEMS SPORTS MLB REPORT
THURSDAY, APRIL 3rd 2014
INFORMATION WORTH BETTING ON EACH DAY
_______________________________________


***** Thursday, 4/3/14 MLB Information *****
(ALL RESULTS VS. ML) - Against The Money-Line - and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Each and every day during the 2014 Major League Baseball season we will analyze all of your daily baseball action, featuring on hot and cold pitchers, hot and cold teams, over/unders and home plate umpire trends. We will also highlight some of our Highly-Rated (Situational & Match-up) Power Trends, along with some of our Situational Analysis (Betting Systems) that pertain to some of that days match-ups.
_________________________________________

Betting Notes - Thursday
•Hot Pitchers
-- WRodriguez was 4-2, 3.16 in his last six starts before getting hurt LY.
-- Zimmerman is 4-1, 2.83 in his last five starts.
-- Lincecum is 4-1, 3.83 in his last seven starts.

-- Quintana is 2-1, 2.30 in his last four starts.
-- Archer is 1-0, 3.38 in his last four starts.
-- Oberholtzer has a 2.78 RA in his last five starts.

•Cold Pitchers
-- Hammel is 0-3, 5.93 in his last five starts.
-- Lynn is 1-2, 5.87 in his last three starts. Bailey is 1-2, 4.74 in his last three.
-- Turner is 0-3, 8.16 in his last three starts. Morales has made 25 big league starts, only 10 since '09, one LY. He was 2-2, 4.62 in 25 innings for Boston LY.
-- Wheeler is 1-3, 3.81 in his last five starts.
-- Arroyo is 1-2, 4.80 in his last five starts.

-- Sanchez is 0-3, 8.22 in his last three home starts. Ventura is 0-1, 3.52 in three MLB starts.
-- Hughes is 0-1, 6.48 in his last three starts.
-- Chen is 2-2, 5.40 in his last four starts. Doubront is 1-0, 7.54 in his last three.
-- Morrow is 1-1, 8.36 in his last three starts.
-- Nova is 0-1, 5.94 in his last three road starts.
-- Elias is making first MLB start; he was 6-11, 3.18 in 22 AA starts last year. Chavez allowed ten runs in 8.2 IP in his only two MLB starts, in 2012.

•Totals
-- Five of last seven Hammel starts stayed under.
-- Four of last five Bailey starts stayed under total.
-- Over is 4-1-1 in last six Turner starts.
-- Three of last four Zimmerman starts went over.
-- Six of last seven Arroyo starts went over total.

-- Over is 4-0-2 in last six Sanchez starts.
-- Last five Quintana starts stayed under.
-- Five of last seven Chen starts went over.
-- Last seven Morrow starts went over total.
-- Under is 4-0-1 in last five Oberholtzer starts.
-- First three Seattle games went over the total.

•Hot Teams
-- Pirates won their first two games.
-- Nationals won their first two games.

-- Tigers won their first two games.
-- White Sox won their first two games.
-- Astros won their first two games.
-- Mariners won their first three games.

•Cold Teams
-- Cubs lost their first two games, scoring three runs.
-- Mets lost their first two games.
-- Arizona lost four of its first five games.

-- Royals lost their first two games.
-- Minnesota lost its first two games.
-- Bronx lost its first two games.

•Umpires Trends
-- Stl-Cin-- Home side is 13-4 in last 17 Barksdale games.
-- Chi-Pitt-- Eight of last ten Hoye games stayed under.
-- Col-Mia-- Under is 10-1-2 in last thirteen Estabrook games.
-- Wsh-NY-- Nine of last 12 Timmons games went over total.
-- SF-Az-- Hoberg-- This is the first MLB game for this umpire.

-- KC-Det-- Under is 10-4-1 in last fifteen Conroy games.
-- Minn-Chi-- Underdogs won five of last seven Bucknor games.
-- Bos-Balt-- Home teams won last five Hickox games.
-- Tor-TB-- Favorites won nine of last twelve Rackley games.
-- NY-Hst-- Underdogs won six of last eight Knight games.

Diamond Trends - Thursday
•SAN FRANCISCO is 3-14 (-14.4 Units) against the money line versus teams outscored by opponent by 1 or more runs/game on the season over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was SAN FRANCISCO 3.7, OPPONENT 5.6.

•NY YANKEES are 14-2 UNDER (+12.0 Units) in road games against American League West opponents over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was NY YANKEES 2.8, OPPONENT 3.2.

•CHI WHITE SOX are 3-22 (-17.8 Units) against the run line as a home favorite when the run line price is +115 to +160 over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was CHI WHITE SOX 3.7, OPPONENT 4.3.

•WEI-YIN CHEN is 12-3 (+9.5 Units) against the money line at home when the money line is +125 to -125 over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was CHEN 5.1, OPPONENT 3.1.

•TIM LINCECUM is 19-3 OVER (+16.1 Units) on the road when the money line is +125 to -125 over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was LINCECUM 5.2, OPPONENT 5.8 - (Rating = 4*)

Situation Analysis of The Day
•Play Over - Home teams where the total is 8.5 to 10 (ARIZONA) - National League team with a good starting pitcher whose ERA was 3.70 to 4.20 last season.
(110-59 since 1997). (65.1%, +48.2 units. Rating = 3*)

The average total posted in these games was: 8.9, Money Line=-104.7
The average score in these games was: Team 5.2, Opponent 5.1 (Total runs scored = 10.3)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 1 or more runs was 95 (55.6% of all games.)

The situation's record this season is: (0-0, +0 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (10-7, +2.9 units).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (26-11, +14.8 units).
___________________________________________

River City Sharps

A couple of interesting trend lines lead to this selection, both revolving around the Tigers. Detroit is 16-5 OVER at home when the total is 7.5 or less over the last 2 seasons and 25-12 OVER as a home favorite of -125 to -175 over the last 2 seasons. The Sharps say...

3 UNITS - KC/DET OVER 7.0 (-120)

Cappers Access

(CBB) Minnesota +2.5