VP's Diamond picks: 4/4/14 ​(YTD 8-5 +8 Units)

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2-1; +2.6 yesterday, only loss being Cincy's one run loss after a long rain delay. Three straight days of profit, with plans to keep the ball rolling.

D-Backs +120 2 Units
I like Arizona getting plus money here. Randall Delgado, although a #5 rotation spot holder, has a decent skill set and above average numbers against Colorado (3.27 ERA, .216 BA, and .256 OBP). Nicasio doesn't hold numbers that deserve any chalk whatsoever. Against Arizona he has a 8.05 ERA in 5 starts, with an opponent average of .310 and OBP of .412. If you give me a pitcher with their opponents' on base percentage that's ten points lower than his counter-part and a plus money line, I will take it every time.

TWINS +170 1 Unit
This is another example of a ten point gap in opponents' OBP, in favor of plus money. I am not a huge fan of Pelfrey, but these numbers are to good to ignore. With 98 AB sample size, Indians batters are hitting at a .194 average with a .288 OBP against Pelfrey. He has also only given up 4 XBH in these 98 ABs, all four of which were doubles. Only reason that I'm keeping this a 1 Unit play is the relatively small sample size for Danny Salazar. In his one start against the Twins he went 4 Innings, gave up 3 BB, 3 hits, and 3 ER. These numbers aren't great, but it's not enough to make a bigger wager.
 

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Adding:

A's TT OVER 4 (-110) 2 Units
I know the Coliseum is a very pitcher friendly park, but Chris Young is a bat-friendly pitcher. This guy's plague of injuries and missed starts have almost been a benefit to the team in contract. His stuff is flat and his groundball % hasn't been above 30 since 2009 with the Padres. His opponent's OBP has been in the mid .300's every year in which he started over 10 games. He's tall and he fields well, but his stuff is flat and this Oakland line-up could expose it in a big way. This wind is also projected to be 15 MPH pushing out towards right field which could prove dangerous for a flyball righty with flat stuff.
 

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0-2 (with one postponed) -3 Units. The Twins game was a bummer due to the late inning meltdown. Losing days are bound to happen in a long season.

YTD: 8-7 (+5 Units)
 

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