4 Saturday w/analysis

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Milwaukee +174 over BOSTON
7:05 PM EST. Everything was positively tea and crumpets for Clay Buchholz in the first half of 2013. He started the season 9-0 with a sub-2.00 ERA. But a strained trapezius muscle put him on the DL in late June, shutting him down for most of the rest of the season. While he made four September starts, he dealt with shoulder fatigue in the playoffs. Because of his on-the-surface dominance a year ago, Buchholz comes into this season as one of the leagues most overvalued starters. Even if he's fully healthy, don't expect similar results for Buchholz in 2014. He was rather fortunate with his hit% and strand%. His xERA of 3.64 shows that he didn't have the skills of a sub-2.00 ERA pitcher. His hr/f was also depressed. Buchholz didn't give up a single HR in 63 IP at Fenway and that's not going to continue. He boosted his strikeout to a level not seen since 2008. Other than using his cutter a bit more (25%, compared to 20% in 2012), he didn't change his approach much, so expect some K rate regression as well. Even with these warnings, Buchholz posted solid gains on previous years; he keeps the ball on the ground and has decent command. But with long DL stints in two of the last three years, Buchholz has definitely earned his "F" health grade. While some will expect a repeat of his first half performance, Buchholz’s injury history and regression make him a very risky play in 2014.

On the surface, control gains offset by strikeout rate loss leaves Wily Peralta a rather unknown commodity but he’s been on our radar for a couple of years now. Peralta’s late strikeout surge a year ago, along with his 95-mph four-seamer gives hope for so much more, especially with his consistent 50% groundball rate. Right-handed bats absolutely hammered Peralta’s change-up but that’s not a big concern because a simple repertoire tweak could make a huge difference. With a mid-90s fastball and dominant slider, Peralta has the raw tools to become a dominant pitcher and he and the Brewers are absolutely worth a play at this inflated price.


CHICAGO +111 over Philadelphia
2:20 PM EST. The Cubbies were rather unappealing yesterday spotting a tag and the same holds true today for the visitor. Cliff Lee is almost a household name in this sport and deservedly so. Lee has been consistently good for years. He was vintage again last season while showing little decline. Lee did miss some second half starts with minor issues, like neck stiffness, the All-Star break, trade talk caution and a team going nowhere. But his only blemish was that 2H win total, the result of hr/f luck and poor run support. Velocity downtick and age will eventually factor in and he was whacked in the opener by Texas. We’ll certainly give Lee a Mulligan for that start but chances are he’s not going to get much run support here and if the winds are blowing out today at Wrigley, he could be in for another short outing. The Phillies have almost no value spotting a tag on the road, even with Lee going because the Cubs’ pitcher is just as good with even more upside than Lee.

After a successful transition from bullpen to rotation in 2012, Jeff Samardzija had higher expectations entering 2013. He delivered in the first half with a 3.34 ERA but then tanked down the stretch (5.47 ERA, 1.51 WHIP after July). Should we be worried about Samardzija's second half swoon? We say no. Despite the 2H fade, Samardzija owns pretty impressive skills. Samardzija's excellent strikeout rate highlights his potential. He also made significant gains in his groundball rate last year to 48%, up from 45% in 2012. His ugly 2H ERA was in large part due to a nasty trifecta of hit%/strand% and hr/f bad luck. Samardzija has now joined the select class of starters with back-to-back outstanding skills seasons. He's also shown the ability to handle the increased workload and should continue to pile up Ks. The 2H slide was exaggerated by some bad luck, nothing more and it has caused him to be undervalued. In short, this is two straight years of excellent skills and that makes us buyers in this one.

COLORADO -1½ +165 over Arizona
8:10 PM EST. Some things never change. The Rockies opened the year by losing three of four in Miami and as soon as they get inside their own barn they go nuts with 17 hits and 12 runs scored. There’s likely more of that today against Brandon McCarthy and a very fragile Diamondbacks squad. McCarthy is the antithesis of the term "model of health" pitching 135 and 111 innings the last two seasons. He heads to Coors Field, which is hardly ever a good recipe for starting pitchers, after giving up five runs in 6.2 innings to the Giants in his first start. Though McCarthy showed impeccable control last year (K/BB of 1.4), he struggled in the strikeouts department (5.1 K/9) and served up a career high home runs on average. There's very little reason to trust McCarthy against the Rockies, given he won't get many strikeouts and the propensity for a disaster start looms large (12 ER in 18 IP vs. Colorado last year).

Before missing almost all of 2012 while recovering from Tommy John surgery, Jorge De La Rosa fell into the category of pitchers who were "one skill away" from turning the corner and becoming true assets. That one skill in De La Rosa's case was control. De La Rosa then went out and won 16 games last season with an ERA of 3.49 and his control most certainly improved. His groundball rate jumped last year to 47%, up from 34% in his previous season and that’s a significant improvement. In his first start this year, De La Rosa was hit hard by the Marlins but there were some positives signs that included six strikeouts in four innings and a 70% groundball rate. He’ll now face a D-Backs team that is hitting .200 against lefties in 58 plate appearance this year and that has one win in seven games. Losing is contagious, especially early in the year and right now the D-Backs with McCarthy on the hill and an already spent bullpen are clear fade material.

N.Y. Yankees +117 over TORONTO
1:05 PM EST. R.A. Dickey was throttled in his first start of the year in Tampa and while that’s just one game, there were some significant warning signs once again. Dickey’s groundball/fly-ball rate in that first start was 25%/69%. He also walked six batters and the Rays were attacking his first pitch and hitting it hard every time he was anywhere near the strike zone. We can assure you the Yankees will take a similar approach here. Furthermore, one has to wonder about Dickey’s confidence level coming into his second start after a shaky 2013 and after getting whacked in his first start. Remember, Dickey posted an ERA of 4.80 at the ACC last season and his ERA in April and May at home was 5.16. Dickey’s 2012 skills now look like a black swan and he’s most certainly a dicey proposition as he approaches age 40. Coming in as the favorite here, Dickey is not worthy of support.

Meanwhile Michael Pineda is the Yanks fifth starter but could be their best when it’s all said and done. Pineda’s ceiling is so high that’s it’s sick and he comes in as our most undervalued pitcher to start the year. Pineda had the pedigree of a top prospect and he showcased those skills way back in his MLB debut in 2011. In 28 starts since he first came on the scene, Pineda has thrown 171 major-league innings and allowed just 133 hits for a BAA of .211. Major league hitters have never adjusted well to Pineda and that’s because he has filthy stuff that he throws with confidence. Pineda’s career has been derailed by injuries and he has not pitched at this level since 2011 so he does come with some risk. However, he has looked fully recovered from his chronic shoulder problems, having posted a 1.20 ERA in 15 IP this past spring and his skills have been fantastic. 9.6 K’s per nine with outstanding command and control. This kid could be the real deal but has become the forgotten man in the shadows of Masahiro Tanaka. We haven’t forgotten him.

I am on the cubs as well. Lets get that one

Good luck today