Service Plays Saturday 4/12/14

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MLB Weekday Series – Five Key Takeaways
By DAVID MALINSKY

Time to once again break down emerging issues that you can use to build your bankroll over the 2014 MLB season, taking a look at the completed weekday series from Point Blank range -

Athletics-“Juggling” Jim Johnson: The fact that Johnson did not finish the 9th inning at Minnesota on Wednesday was an indication that the patience of Bob Melvin has already been taxed – after five batters and 27 pitches, the only out he had recorded was on a pop-up bunt. His tally in an Oakland uniform is 0-2/18.90, at a nightmarish 32.7 PPI. Those numbers do not exaggerate his struggles – he has only recorded 10 outs of the 26 batters he has faced, and in addition to that bunt being a gift on Wednesday, two of the other outs were sacrifice flies, which are hardly “pitcher beating batter”, especially for a ground-ball guy.

It was not supposed to be this way. Johnson worked to a 2.70 with 110 saves over the past three seasons with the Orioles. Now he was both moving to a better pitcher’s park, and also expecting to benefit from having a better defense behind him. But was there already a danger signal in sight?

Making 214 appearances over three seasons in the tough AL East can take a toll on any pitcher, especially with a lot of those innings in hitter-friendly parks. For comparison, Mariano Rivera’s high for any three-year cycle was 189 from 2003-2005. A Johnson decline may have already been showing in 2013, when he led the AL in blown saves, and had the second-most losses of any reliever in the Major’s. After allowing 7.9 Hits-per-9 in 2011 and 7.2 in 2012, that category was up to 9.2 last year. Much of that could be attributed to BABIP, but was he also wearing down?

Hence, Melvin’s conundrum. He needs for Johnson to get some work if he is going to regain his rhythm, but he also can’t afford to let W’s get away. Oakland’s offense is not going to break many games open, which makes having a trustworthy closer essential. Johnson will be getting a demotion, so you should be watching closely to see if anyone else has the moxie to handle the role, and also whether Johnson shows any signs of a resurgence while working the set-up innings.

Royals-Jason Vargas and “Comfort”: Jason Vargas brings little sex appeal when he takes the mound – a 33-32/4.04 over the 2011-13 seasons could elicit yawns from a guy that does not dazzle, relying on contact outs. The betting public is more inclined to like “stuff”, the clear ability to see a pitcher blow the ball by hitters, and this is magnified by a Rotisserie world that makes Strikeouts akin to a Holy Grail. As such Vargas gets under-valued – had you played every one of his starts over those three years your return would have been +547. Contrast that with a per-start investment on Justin Verlander returning a -926 in that same span. Get the picture? Knowing how the line is set is the first step towards beating it.

That is why the first two Vargas starts with the Royals were prominent on our radar screens. Put a strong defense behind a guy with good control and he can relax a bit, and focus on what he does best. He has done that – through those games it has been a 1-0/1.20 at an efficient 14.4 PPI (Pitchers Per Inning). Contrast that with his 15.9 PPI with the Angels last year, and you can see why the early scrutiny is important.

The Royals finished #8 in MLB in Park Adjusted Defense in 2013, and are #4 so far this season. That is a big plus for Vargas, after the Angels were only #24 in that category last year - with that mediocre defense behind him a lot of batted balls were not converted to outs (his BABIP was .310, up from .285 and .255 with Seattle the two previous seasons). Eventually that may have changed his approach a bit - His Walks-Per-9 went up by 20 percent over 2012, while K’s-Per-9 increased by 12 percent, which is what happens when you do not trust the defense. With the Royals it has been a different story, and he could be in for a comfortable season that will not set off any fireworks through the peripheral categories, but could generate betting profits for the savvy investor.

White Sox-Is the Offense real: With so many new faces coming on board over the past two seasons, fans on the South Side had to be excited to look up after the first three series and see an offense that is #1 in the AL in Runs, Total Bases and Home Runs. This is after finishing last in the league in Runs, #11 in Total Bases and #12 in HR’s in 2013. But will this excitement last?

Yes, having Jose Abreu is a legitimate reason for optimism – he is slugging .583, and can be special. The others? Not so much. It has been a good roll of the dice in terms of the starters they have faced - Ricky Nolasco, Kevin Correia, Phil Hughes, Jeremy Guthrie, Bruce Chen, James Shields, Jordan Lyles, Franklin Morales and Juan Nicasio. And to cloud their gaudy stats even more consider this - 11.1 percent of all runs, and 25 percent of all HR’s, came off of Colorado reliever Wilton Lopez in a single inning on Tuesday night. Lopez has already been demoted to the Minors. You should remain skeptical, for now.

Giants-Tim Lincecum, “It’s not just Goldschmidt” - The way that Paul Goldschmidt has rocked Lincecum is something at a truly historic level – now at 13-24 lifetime, with seven HR’s and 17 rbi’s. So those still believing in the San Francisco right-hander might discount his 0-1/9.90 as a matter of him continuing to get rocked by an old nemesis. But it may go far beyond that. In a column earlier this week noting the changing dynamics of the 2014 Giants, there was a reference to still staying behind Matt Cain, who can turn his form around. But that reference purposefully skipped Lincecum.

Diamondbacks other than Goldschmidt also hit him to a .300 tune, with two HR’s and five rbi’s, and his stuff is simply ordinary these days. That should not be news, after seasons of 10-15/5.18 and 10-14/4.37. But the marketplace continues to over-rate him based on those brilliant earlier stages of his career. As such, since the start of the 2012 season you would have burned -12.9 positions by backing him in every start

Why haven’t the perceptions caught up (or down) with the realities? Because his 2013 distribution was a bizarre one that could still tantalize those with long memories - he did have six starts in which he did not allow a run. But his current fastball is running 4.5 mph below his career peak, and any performance numbers prior to 2012 have little relevance in terms of projecting his immediate MLB future (he may not have a long-term one).

Mariners-James Paxton & “Second Looks”: Last week the notion of how difficult it was to establish a power rating for James Paxton was discussed, and part of that takeaway dealt with how “second look” opportunities might bring a key read for a guy that hides the ball well in his delivery (doesn't he remind you of Andy Pettitte?). Which naturally made his rematch with the Angels a viewing priority for Tuesday night. It provided plenty of food for thought.

There was a natural “well here we go” inclination when Albert Pujols and David Freese blasted no-doubt HR’s in the first inning, for a quick 3-0 Angel lead. So maybe Paxton was nothing special after all, and hitters just needed to see that delivery a bit. But then the flow changed dramatically. Paxton retired the next 14 batters, with the ball not getting beyond the infield for 13 of them. He struck out the side in the 4th inning, all on swinging strikes, and finished the game with a most efficient PPI of 12.0.

Instead of that first inning outburst being a second look issue, was it instead more of a case of nerves for a young pitcher in front of 45,661 fans in a home opener? Here is what Paxton told the Seattle Times – “I was a little excited with what was going on. I left some pitches up and when you mistakes to hitter that good, they are going to make it hurt.”

The issue going forward is a strained muscle that brought him out of the game after facing one batter in the 6th, and has sent him to the DL. But in terms of ability and potential, he may have passed Tuesday’s test even better than the first glance might appear.

MLB

Hot pitchers
-- Wainwright has a 2.14 RA in his last three starts. Villanueva is 1-1, 3.18 in his last three starts.
-- Eovaldi is 2-1, 2.02 in his last four starts.
-- Wood is 1-1, 1.93 in two starts so far this season. Jordan is 1-0, 3.77 in his last five starts.
-- Gallardo is 2-0, 0.00 (12.2 IP) in two starts this season. Volquez is 0-1, 2.65 in his last three starts.
-- Greinke is 4-2, 2.07 in his last ten starts. Miley is 2-1, 3.00 in his last five.

-- Lackey is 3-0, 1.93 in his last three starts; Kuroda is 1-1, 2.92 in his first two starts this season.
-- Paulino is 2-1, 3.03 in his last seven starts.
-- Shields is 3-1, 1.70 in his last six starts.
-- Gray is 1-0, 2.25 in his first two '14 starts.

-- Cobb is 3-1, 1.85 in his last six starts. Simon allowed one run in seven IP in his first '14 start, his first MLB start since '11 (4-9, 4.90).
-- Verlander is 1-2, 1.10 in his last seven starts. Kennedy is 2-1, 3.00 in his last three outings.
-- Niese is 1-1, 2.89 in his last three starts.


Cold pitchers
-- Cain is 0-2, 5.00 in his last three starts. Anderson is 0-2, 6.75 in his first two starts for Colorado.
-- Pettibone is 0-1, 5.06 in his last three starts.

-- Masterson is 1-2, 3.66 in his last six starts.
-- Nolasco is 0-1, 9.00 in his first two starts for Minnesota.
-- Hutchison is 1-2, 6.32 in his last four starts. Norris is 0-2, 8.10 in his last three outings.
-- Scheppers is 0-1, 9.00 in his first two MLB starts. Cosart is 1-2, 3.94 in his last six starts.
-- Ramirez is 1-2, 8.03 in his last three starts.

-- Weaver is 0-2, 6.75 in his first two '14 starts.

Totals
-- Last five Philly games went over the total.
-- Last three Washington games went over the total.
-- All four games at Miller Park stayed under total; three of last four Pittsburgh games went over.
-- Last five Cub games went over the total.
-- Six of last eight Arizona games went over total; five of six Dodger road games stayed under.
-- Ten of eleven Giant games went over the total.

-- All five Boston road games stayed under the total.
-- All four games at Camden Yards stayed under.
-- Under is 5-1-1 in last seven Texas games.
-- All five White Sox home games went over total.
-- Nine of ten Minnesota games went over total.
-- Four of last five Oakland games went over total.

-- Four of last five Tampa Bay games stayed under.
-- Eight of ten Angel games went over the total.
-- Eight of ten San Diego games stayed under.

Hot teams
-- Nationals won four of their last five games.
-- Milwaukee won its last seven games.

-- White Sox won four of their first five home games.
-- Blue Jays won three of their last four games.
-- Rangers won their last three home games.
-- Oakland won four of its last five games. Mariners won six of first nine.

-- Tampa Bay won five of its last eight games.
-- Angels both won five of their last seven games.

Cold teams
-- Miam lost its last five games; Phillies lost four of last five.
-- Arizona lost four of its five home games.

-- Red Sox lost five of their last eight games. Bronx lost three of last four.
-- Orioles lost three of their four home games.
-- Astros lost seven of their last nine games.
-- Indians lost five of their last seven games.
-- Minnesota lost three of its first four home games. Kansas City lost its first three away games.

-- Cincinnati lost seven of its first ten games. Rays lost three of last five.
-- San Diego lost six of its last nine games; Detroit lost three of last four.

Umpires
-- Chi-StL-- Under is 11-2-2 in last fifteen Estabrook games.
-- Col-SF-- 10 of last 14 Hudson games went over total.
-- Mia-Phil-- Underdogs won four of last five Barksdale games.
-- Pitt-Mil-- Four of last five Miller games stayed under.
-- Wsh-Atl-- Eight of last twelve Vanover games went over.
-- LA-Az-- 10 of last 14 Timmons games went over the total.

-- Bos-NY-- Underdogs won seven of last ten Tumpane games.
-- KC-Min-- Under is 5-2-2 in last nine Nelson games.
-- Cle-Chi-- Five of last seven Wolcott games went over.
-- Tor-Blt-- Underdogs won nine of last 14 Emmel games.
-- A's-Sea-- Hoberg's first two games both went over total.
-- Hst-Tex-- Five of last six Drake games went over total.

-- TB-Cin-- Underdogs are 10-6 in last sixteen TWelke games.
-- Det-SD-- First game behind plate in MLB for rookie ump Buckminster.
-- NY-LAA-- Barber has worked two games behind plate; no trends yet.

NHL

Hot teams
-- Penguins won five of their last seven games.
-- Rangers won nine of their last twelve games.
-- Senators won six of their last eight games.
-- Blue Jackets won three of their last four games.
-- Blackhawks/Predators both won four of their last five games.
-- Anaheim won five of its last seven games.

Cold teams
-- Bruins lost four of last five games. Sabres lost last five games, scoring eight goals.
-- Flyers lost five of their last seven games.
-- Montreal lost three of its last five games.
-- Maple Leafs lost 11 of their last 13 games.
-- Florida lost six of its last eight games.
-- Phoenix lost its last six games, scoring seven goals. Sharks lost three of last four on road.
-- Canucks lost five of their last six games. Edmonton lost five of last seven.
-- Los Angeles lost three of its last four games.

Totals
-- Under is 23-12-5 in Buffalo's road games.
-- Six of last eight Philly games went over total.
-- Under is 4-0-1 in last five Ranger games.
-- Six of last eight Toronto games went over total.
-- Six of last eight Columbus games stayed under.
-- Last three Nashville games stayed under total.
-- Five of last six Phoenix games stayed under.
-- Four of last five Edmonton games stayed under.
-- Six of last eight Anaheim games went over total.

Series records
-- Sabres won five of their last nine games with Boston.
-- Flyers won their last three games with Pittsburgh.
-- Rangers lost four of last five games with Montreal.
-- Senators lost nine of their last ten games with Toronto.
-- Panthers lost their last seven games with Columbus.
-- Predators won three of last four games with Chicago.
-- Sharks won four of last six games with Phoenix.
-- Canucks won three of last four games with Edmonton.
-- Ducks won last three games with Los Angeles, allowing two goals.

NBA

Hot teams
-- Clippers won five of their last seven games.
-- Charlotte won five of its last six games.
-- Miami won six of its last nine games. Hawks won four of last five.
-- Suns won nine of last twelve games. Dallas won four of last five.
-- Denver Nuggets covered their last six games.

Cold Teams
-- Kings lost last four games, by 33-2-15-1 point.
-- 76ers lost 31 of last 33 games, covered five of last seven.
-- Washington lost last two, covered one of last four at home. Bucks lost six of its last seven games.
-- Celtics lost nine of last ten games (3-6-1 vs spread). Cavaliers lost three of their last four games.
-- Houston lost five of its last eight games. Pelicans lost their last seven games (2-4-1 vs spread).
-- Jazz lost eight of last nine games (0-5-1 vs spread last six).

Series records
-- Clippers won eight of last nine games with Sacramento.
-- Bobcats won six of last seven games with Philly.
-- Wizards won four of last five games with Milwaukee.
-- Heat won nine of last ten games with Atlanta.
-- Celtics won six of last eight games with Cleveland.
-- Rockets won six of last seven games with New Orleans.
-- Suns lost 12 of last 15 games with Dallas.
-- Jazz split their last six visits to Denver.

Totals
-- Seven of last eight Sacramento games stayed under; five of Clippers' last seven games went over.
-- Six of last eight Philly games went over total.
-- Five of last six Milwaukee games went over total; nine of Wizards' last ten games stayed under.
-- Four of last five Miami games went over total.
-- Four of last five Boston games went over total.
-- Under is 8-2-1 in last eleven Rocket-Pelican games.
-- Under is 9-4 in last thirteen Phoenix games.
-- Five of last seven Utah games went over total.

Today's MLB Picks

Kansas City at Minnesota

The Royals look to bounce back from last night's loss to the Twins and come into today's contest with a 15-3 record in James Shields' last 18 starts as a favorite. Kansas City is the pick (-145) according to Dunkel, which has the Royals favored by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (-145). Here are all of today's picks.

Free Selection from Arthur Ralph Sports

Bonus Play SAT: BALT.W/ NORRIS -130

Gamblers Data

Bonus Plays Saturday

Royals -150

Brewers -155

Mighty Quinn

Mighty missed with the Raptors (-5) on Friday and likes the Clippers on Saturday.

The deficit is 290 sirignanos.

Goodfella

3* San Fran over 7.5 (Action)
3* Brewers -145 (Listed Gallardo vs Volquez)

Burns full card?? TIA

MMA Jay
Trendbetting

Dodgers ML

INT PICKS

2** Texas rangers -159
1* boston/NYYankees under 8 1/2
1* Milw/wash over 202
1* Denver nuggets -9 1/2
(Free) LA Dodgers-129

Power Play Wins

Today's Power play

Oakland A's

Today's NHL Picks

Anaheim at Los Angeles

The Kings look to follow up their 3-0 win at Edmonton on Thursday and come into tonight's contest against the Ducks carrying a 12-3 record in their last 15 home games following a victory. Los Angeles is the pick (-125) according to Dunkel, which has the Kings favored by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Los Angeles (-125). Here are all of today's picks.

Cappers Access

Nuggets -9.5
Cardinals (RL) -1.5(+103)
Padres +145

Saturday's MLB American League betting cheat sheet

Toronto Blue Jays at Baltimore Orioles (-117, 9)

Hot pitching stat: Under is 5-2 in Drew Hutchison's last seven starts for Toronto.

Cold batting stat: Blue Jays outfielder Colby Rasmus is just 4-for-22 with six strikeouts lifetime versus Norris.

Weather: Another cool affair on the East coast with weather hovering between the high fifties and low sixties.

Key betting note: Over is 4-0 in games following a Blue Jays win.


Boston Red Sox at New York Yankees (-109, 8.5)

Cold pitching stat: Boston are 3-8 in John Lackey's last 11 games as an underdog.

Cold batting stat: Red Sox are 1-4 in their last five games against right handed starters.

Weather: Partly cloudy with a low wind of just 6 MPH.

Key betting note:The under is 4-1 in Kuroda's last five starts against the rival Red Sox, Kuroda also has a record of 7-1 at home when the total is set between 7.0-8.5. Kuroda is also boasting an 8-0 record on Saturday's as a starter.


Houston Astros at Texas Rangers (-159, 9.5)

Cold pitching stat: Jared Cosart struggled in his second start of the season, allowing a career high five runs.

Hot batting stat: Rangers Adrian Beltre welcomed Cosart to the big leagues in his first matchup with the Astros pitcher, taking him yard. Beltre has two hits in three at bats against the newcomer.

Weather: High winds at 17 mph.

Key betting note: Astros are 5-1 in their last six as road underdogs of +110 to +150


Kansas City Royals at Minnesota Twins (133, 7.5)

Hot pitching stat: Jake Shields is 9-0 as a road favorite in his last nine starts with the Royals.

Cold batting stat: Twins star Joe Mauer is just .227 lifetime against Shields.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the low 60's.

Key betting note: Kansas City are 7-1 in their last eight meetings against their division rivals.


Cleveland Indians at Chicago White Sox (113, 8)

Hot pitching stat: Cleveland are 8-1 in Justin Masterson's last nine starts as a road favorite.

Hot batting stat: Chicago have had a high powered offense through their first 11 games of the season, the White Sox are averaging 6.36 runs per game with the Over going 8-3 as well.

Weather: Calm winds and cool weather at 57 degrees.

Key betting note: Masterson has six wins in a row against the White Sox as a starter and 5-0 in road starts.


Oakland Athletics at Seattle Mariners (108, 7.5)

Hot pitching stat: Oakland are 6-2 in Sonny Gray's last eight starts.

Cold batting stat: Mariners are 2-7 in their last nine home games against right handed starters.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the high-50s with partly cloudy skies and wind blowing in at 8 mph.

Key betting note: Over is on a seven game streak in meetings between Oakland and the Mariners in Seattle.



Interleague

Tampa Bay Rays at Cincinnati Reds (119, 7.5)

Hot pitching stat: Rays' starter Cobb has four straight wins coming off a quality start.

Hot batting stat: Evan Longoria is sixth in the AL in batting average with a .356 mark.

Weather: Weather information is currently unavailable.

Key betting note: Under is 10-3 in the Rays last 13 interleague games.


Detroit Tigers at San Diego Padres (134, 6.5)

Hot pitching stat: Tigers are 20-6 in Verlander's 26 interleague starts.

Cold batting stat: Under is 5-1 in the Tigers last six interleague games.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the high-60s.

Key betting note: Tigers are 3-12 in Verlander's last 15 starts.


New York Mets at Los Angeles Angels (-171, 7.5)

Hot pitching stat: Angels are 8-1 in ace Jared Weaver's last nine interleague starts.

Hot batting stat: Curtis Granderson will be hoping to rely on his American League experience against Weaver as the outfielder has three home runs against the Angels starter.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the high-60s.

Key betting note: Angels are 44-15 in Weaver's 59 games as a home favorite.

Saturday's MLB National League betting cheat sheet

Miami Marlins at Philadelphia Phillies (-114, 8)

Hot pitching stat: Phillies are 6-0 in Pettibone's last six starts in the division.

Cold batting stat: Ryan Howard is .167 lifetime against Nathan Eovaldi.

Weather: Weather information is currently unavailable.

Key betting note: Marlins are 7-3 in their last ten games as an underdog.


Washington Nationals at Atlanta Braves (-134, 7)

Cold pitching stat: Washington are 1-4 in Taylor Jordan's last five road starts.

Hot batting stat: Anthony Rendon is batting 1.000 in four career at bats against Alex Wood.

Weather: Potential high of 79.

Key betting note: Atlanta own the Nationals in recent history, holding a 20-7 record over the last 27 games.


Pittsburgh Pirates at Milwaukee Brewers (-155, 8)

Hot pitching stat: Milwaukee are 6-2 against the NL Central in Gallardo's last eight starts.

Hot batting stat: Rickie Weeks has a lifetime .353 average against Edison Volquez.

Weather: Chance at rain with a 60% projected humidity.

Key betting note: Milwaukee are 6-0 this season following a win.


Chicago Cubs at St. Louis Cardinals (-214, 7)

Hot pitching stat: St. Louis are 6-1 in ace Adam Wainwright's last seven home starts.

Cold batting stat: Only one member of the Cardinals lineup has a career home run over project Cubs starter Carlos Villenueva.

Weather: Partly cloudy with a potential high of 79.

Key betting note: Cardinals are 4-1 in Wainwright's last five starts against the Cubbies.


Los Angeles Dodgers at Arizona Diamondbacks (115, 8)

Hot pitching stat: Dodgers Zach Grienke owns division opposition as he has Los Angeles holding an 11-1 trend in his last 12 starts against NL West ballclubs.

Hot batting stat: Arizona slugger Paul Goldschmidt is on fire, batting .340 with 8 RBI's already this season.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the high 80's.

Key betting note: Los Angeles are currently on a four game win streak in Arizona.


Colorado Rockies at San Francisco Giants (-137, 7.5)

Cold pitching stat: Giants are 5-16 in Matt Cain's last 21 starts.

Hot batting stat: Rockies shortstop Troy Tulowitzki has four career dingers against Matt Cain.

Weather: Partly cloudy with a potential high of 62.

Key betting note: Giants are 7-0 in Cain's last seven road starts in Colorado.