| Range | W | L | P | +/- (Units) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yesterday | 3 | 0 | 0.00 | +6.78 |
| Last 30 Days | 19 | 15 | 0.00 | +16.12 |
| Season to Date | 19 | 15 | 0.00 | +16.12 |
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Baltimore is 2 units. ARI/LA is 2.2 units to win 2
HOME TEAM IN CAPS
BALTIMORE -1 +105 over Toronto
Dustin McGowan started the Blue Jays home opener against the Yankees and didn’t make it out of the third inning after allowing eight hits and four earned runs in 2.2 innings. McGowan didn’t win the Jays fifth starter’s job on his performance in the spring, he won it by process of elimination because the others vying for it (J.A. Happ, Todd Redmond, Esmil Rogers, Marcus Stroman and Ricky Romero) were all ineffective. Note that since the end of the 2008 season, McGowan has only pitched a total of 56 innings between minors and majors (all in 2011), so his risk factor is of the highest order. The Blue Jays have a lot of money invested in McGowan so they can’t be blamed for giving him the upper hand but he’s hanging on by a thread. His swinging strike rate in his first start was a measly 6% and it wasn’t much better in the spring. Since he was last effective in 2008, he’s had multiple shoulder surgeries and a knee injury. McGowan is certainly a player to root for in real life but not at the expense of your bankroll.
The Blue Jays are hitting .223 as a team and that’s after facing three brutal starters from the Astros. Toronto’s 19.7% line-drive rate on batted balls is the lowest rate in the majors. They now take a step up in class from Houston’s staff to Chris Tilman. Tilman had a fine follow-up last season to his surprising 2012 season and this may just be the start. There are so many encouraging nuggets in the rather colorful across-the-board second half skills growth. Tilman’s groundball rate, strikeout rate, swinging strike and control were significantly better in the second half than the first. In two starts this season, Tilman has walked two, struck out nine and has posted a WHIP of 1.05. Of course, doing it over a full season is another challenge, but his age (26), growth and improving skills suggest far more upside than down.
Los Angeles/ARIZONA over 8½ -110
Hyun-Jin Ryu not only had a terrific debut in his first season with the Dodgers but there were great signs going forward. His 2H skills gains across the board bode well, as does just 2 true disasters all season. That was last year but in three starts this year there are plenty of warning signs in his early profile. Ryu already has one disaster start in three games. His groundball rate has taken a significant dive from 51% last year to 35% this year. In fact, over his 14 innings, Ryu has an alarming 35%/28%/38% groundball/line-drive/fly-ball profile. Also note that there were questions about the level of competition in the Korean League he came from. Now that hitters are much more aware of his tendencies than they were last year, Ryu is not fooling many hitters. His WHIP of 1.43 in three starts is another red flag. Furthermore, current D-Backs have 35 hits against Ryu in 116 AB’s for a BA of .302. Aaron Hill and Paul Goldschmidt have combined for 13 hits in 26 AB’s against Ryu and every other D-Back with the exception of Mark Trumbo have at least one hit against him. In this unforgiving park, the D-Backs have a good chance to put up a crooked number against him.
The Dodgers hitters have struck out more than any team in baseball. However, they are not facing a strikeout pitcher here. The move from Oakland, where Brandon McCarthy posted a 2.74 ERA in 2011-12, to Arizona didn't help his hr/f or his hit %. McCarthy’s health woes (shoulder inflammation, seizure) are ongoing, and chipping away at his strikeout rate and his confidence. McCarthy’s groundball % rebounded last year and his control remains elite, but his inability to remain whole casts a dark shadow. The impact of three DL stints in two years for the same shoulder may afford McCarthy less margin for error than ever and he has not been sharp in his two starts this year. McCarthy has allowed 11 runs in 12.2 innings and both starts sailed over the total. McCarthy has already been tagged for four jacks in those two starts and the bullpen behind him isn’t very good either. Like the D-Backs, the Dodgers also have a great chance to put up a crooked number.
