[h=1]Santana to third a gain for Indians[/h][h=3]He's not great at the hot corner but he was much worse behind the plate[/h]By Scott Spratt | ESPN Insider
As we saw with Miguel Cabrera in 2012 and 2013, some teams are willing to try to hide a less-than-stellar defender at third base if his bat can make up for it. And since Cabrera had played two full season at third earlier in his career, playing him at the hot corner didn't seem so crazy.However, when the Indians announced they were going to try Carlos Santana at third base this season, that certainly seemed a bit more far-fetched. While Santana had played some third base early in his minor league career, it was a grand total of 58 games, and just one since 2007.
Yet for all of the potential headaches Santana's move to third base could cause the Indians if things go poorly, it should still represent a net positive for their team defense.
[h=3]Not that bad[/h]
So far, Santana has been a neutral defender at the hot corner, but less than two weeks of games is hardly a telling sample. But what makes this move so shrewd is that it frees up the catcher spot for Yan Gomes, and the difference between his and Santana's defense at catcher will likely make up for Santana's deficiencies at third base and then some.
From 2010-13, Santana had the sixth-worst defensive runs saved (DRS) among MLB catchers. He cost the Indians 15 runs there over that stretch, and nearly all of the runs Santana cost the Indians behind the plate were because of his inability to block pitches in the dirt and the ease at which opponents stole bases on him.
<!-- begin inline 1 -->[h=4]Don't run![/h]Yan Gomes was among the best at gunning down base stealers in 2013.
<THEAD>
</THEAD><TBODY>
</TBODY>
<!-- end inline 1 -->Since 2010, only Wilin Rosario (87.6 percent) has blocked a lower rate of pitches in the dirt than Santana (87.8 percent). Those two players were 1.5 percent worse than the rest of the field of 27 catchers who had at least 1,000 opportunities to block a pitch. As a younger player, Gomes has not met that minimum qualification. However, Gomes has blocked 91.2 percent of pitches in the dirt in his shorter career to date, which is close to average among catchers.
In addition to the clear advantage Gomes has over Santana in pitch blocking, Gomes also excels in other aspects of run prevention where Santana fails to stand out. The primary one is in stolen base prevention. Last season, Gomes caught 18 potential base stealers -- Baseball Info Solutions separates catcher caught stealings (CCS) and pitcher caught stealings (PCS) -- and only allowed 29 stolen bases. That 38.3 percent catcher caught stealing rate was fifth-best among the 37 catchers who caught 500 or more innings.
In contrast, Santana caught just 16.4 percent of potential base stealers last season. Meanwhile, the combination of Gomes' stolen base prevention and excellent pitch-calling helped him reach 11 DRS in 2013 despite just 85 games behind the plate. That was fourth-most at the position, and we project Gomes will tie for third in catcher DRS this year with an increase in playing time.
[h=3]Offensive upgrade[/h]
Offensively, the addition of Gomes to the lineup is likely an upgrade as well. In his career, Gomes has a .784 OPS. Meanwhile, the player most likely to lose playing time is Lonnie Chisenhall, the Indians' primary third baseman prior to Santana's position switch. For his career, Chisenhall has just a .702 OPS. That improvement may understate the overall offensive improvement of the team as well, if the move away from catcher helps Santana play more frequently and for more years without the daily physical toll catching has on a player.
In the long run, it may matter much less for Santana to be an effective defensive third baseman. The Indians' shortstop prospect Francisco Lindor is believed to be an elite defender, and he could reach the majors as soon as this September and replace Asdrubal Cabrera, an impending free agent who has fared poorly in DRS.
Lindor's potential above-average defense combined with Santana's potential below-average defense might aggregate to a neutral left side. However, even if the Indians have to endure limited range across the left side of their infield for all of 2014, the defensive upgrade Yan Gomes will provide over Carlos Santana could easily make up for it.
Given how much better we expect Gomes to be than Santana at catcher, the move should pay off.
As we saw with Miguel Cabrera in 2012 and 2013, some teams are willing to try to hide a less-than-stellar defender at third base if his bat can make up for it. And since Cabrera had played two full season at third earlier in his career, playing him at the hot corner didn't seem so crazy.However, when the Indians announced they were going to try Carlos Santana at third base this season, that certainly seemed a bit more far-fetched. While Santana had played some third base early in his minor league career, it was a grand total of 58 games, and just one since 2007.
Yet for all of the potential headaches Santana's move to third base could cause the Indians if things go poorly, it should still represent a net positive for their team defense.
[h=3]Not that bad[/h]
So far, Santana has been a neutral defender at the hot corner, but less than two weeks of games is hardly a telling sample. But what makes this move so shrewd is that it frees up the catcher spot for Yan Gomes, and the difference between his and Santana's defense at catcher will likely make up for Santana's deficiencies at third base and then some.
From 2010-13, Santana had the sixth-worst defensive runs saved (DRS) among MLB catchers. He cost the Indians 15 runs there over that stretch, and nearly all of the runs Santana cost the Indians behind the plate were because of his inability to block pitches in the dirt and the ease at which opponents stole bases on him.
<!-- begin inline 1 -->[h=4]Don't run![/h]Yan Gomes was among the best at gunning down base stealers in 2013.
| PLAYER | CS RATE |
|---|---|
| 1. Yadier Molina | 42.2% |
| 2. A.J. Ellis | 40.7% |
| 3. Ryan Hanigan | 40.0% |
| 4. Joe Mauer | 39.5% |
| 5. Yan Gomes | 38.3% |
<THEAD>
</THEAD><TBODY>
</TBODY>
<!-- end inline 1 -->Since 2010, only Wilin Rosario (87.6 percent) has blocked a lower rate of pitches in the dirt than Santana (87.8 percent). Those two players were 1.5 percent worse than the rest of the field of 27 catchers who had at least 1,000 opportunities to block a pitch. As a younger player, Gomes has not met that minimum qualification. However, Gomes has blocked 91.2 percent of pitches in the dirt in his shorter career to date, which is close to average among catchers.
In addition to the clear advantage Gomes has over Santana in pitch blocking, Gomes also excels in other aspects of run prevention where Santana fails to stand out. The primary one is in stolen base prevention. Last season, Gomes caught 18 potential base stealers -- Baseball Info Solutions separates catcher caught stealings (CCS) and pitcher caught stealings (PCS) -- and only allowed 29 stolen bases. That 38.3 percent catcher caught stealing rate was fifth-best among the 37 catchers who caught 500 or more innings.
In contrast, Santana caught just 16.4 percent of potential base stealers last season. Meanwhile, the combination of Gomes' stolen base prevention and excellent pitch-calling helped him reach 11 DRS in 2013 despite just 85 games behind the plate. That was fourth-most at the position, and we project Gomes will tie for third in catcher DRS this year with an increase in playing time.
[h=3]Offensive upgrade[/h]
Offensively, the addition of Gomes to the lineup is likely an upgrade as well. In his career, Gomes has a .784 OPS. Meanwhile, the player most likely to lose playing time is Lonnie Chisenhall, the Indians' primary third baseman prior to Santana's position switch. For his career, Chisenhall has just a .702 OPS. That improvement may understate the overall offensive improvement of the team as well, if the move away from catcher helps Santana play more frequently and for more years without the daily physical toll catching has on a player.
In the long run, it may matter much less for Santana to be an effective defensive third baseman. The Indians' shortstop prospect Francisco Lindor is believed to be an elite defender, and he could reach the majors as soon as this September and replace Asdrubal Cabrera, an impending free agent who has fared poorly in DRS.
Lindor's potential above-average defense combined with Santana's potential below-average defense might aggregate to a neutral left side. However, even if the Indians have to endure limited range across the left side of their infield for all of 2014, the defensive upgrade Yan Gomes will provide over Carlos Santana could easily make up for it.
Given how much better we expect Gomes to be than Santana at catcher, the move should pay off.
