Service Plays Monday 4-14-14

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Game of the Day: Spurs vs. Rockets

San Antonio Spurs vs. Houston Rockets (OFF)

The Houston Rockets wrap up what has been a phenomenal home performance when they host the San Antonio Spurs on Monday. Houston, which entered Sunday a game up on Portland in the battle for the fourth seed and homecourt advantage in the first round of the playoffs, is 32-8 at home and can tie the 2008-09 edition for the most wins at the Toyota Center with a victory in the finale. The Rockets rallied for a 111-104 triumph over New Orleans on Saturday to snap a two-game skid and remain ahead of the Trail Blazers.

The Spurs have nothing to play for in the standings, having already clinched the best record in the NBA, but they are one win shy of matching the franchise record of 63 established in 2005-06. Tony Parker returned from a back injury to score 18 points and complement Danny Green's career-best 33 in a 112-104 win over Phoenix on Friday. Forward Tim Duncan and guard Manu Ginobili both took the night off.

TV: 8 p.m. ET, NBATV, FSN Southwest (San Antonio), CSN Houston

LINE HISTORY: The line and total for this game are currently off the board.

INJURY REPORT: San Antonio: C Tim Duncan - questionable (knee), G Manu Ginobili - questionable (hamsting), F Matt Bonner - questionable (illness). Houston: F Chandler Parsons - questionable (wrist)

COVERS POWER RANKINGS: San Antonio (-14) - Houston (-12) + home court (-3) = Houston -1

WHAT SHARPS SAY: "The Rockets are 30-1 straight up this season when reaching its scoring average, which is 107.1 points per game," says Covers Expert Bryan Power.

CHEERLEADER WAR:



WHY BET THE SPURS (62-18, 45-35 ATS): With the top spot in the Western Conference already clinched, San Antonio could have eyed Friday's game - the second half of a back-to-back and the third game in four nights - as a chance to take it easy. However, the Spurs outscored the Suns by 19 points in an impressive second half and appear primed to finish strong. "Those guys have a lot of pride," head coach Gregg Popovich said of his players, whose 30 road wins is five more than any other NBA team.

WHY BET THE ROCKETS (53-27, 39-39-2 ATS) : Center Dwight Howard and guard Patrick Beverley both returned from eight-game layoffs to help Houston secure the comeback win over New Orleans, but forward Chandler Parsons sat with wrist and hip ailments. James Harden shouldered the load with 33 points and 13 assists and produced four points and two assists in a game-ending 15-0 run that kept the Rockets from falling into a tie with Portland. "We needed this win more than anything," Harden told reporters.

TWEET BEAT:



TRENDS:

* Spurs are 0-5 ATS in the last five meetings.
* Underdog is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings.
* Under is 9-1 in Spurs last 10 games following an ATS win.
* Over is 5-0 in Rockets last five games playing on one days rest.

COVERS CONSENSUS: N/A.

STATSYSTEMS SPORTS MLB REPORT
MONDAY, APRIL 14th 2014
INFORMATION WORTH BETTING ON EACH DAY
_______________________________________


***** Monday, 4/14/14 MLB Information *****
(ALL RESULTS VS. ML) - Against The Money-Line - and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Each and every day during the 2014 Major League Baseball season we will analyze all of your daily baseball action, featuring on hot and cold pitchers, hot and cold teams, over/unders and home plate umpire trends. We will also highlight some of our Highly-Rated (Situational & Match-up) Power Trends, along with some of our Situational Analysis (Betting Systems) that pertain to some of that days match-ups.
_______________________________________

Betting Notes - Monday
•Hot Pitchers
-- Santana is 2-1, 1.61 in his last four starts.
-- Garza is 1-1, 3.29 in his last four starts.
-- Lyles is 2-0, 3.86 in two starts this season.

-- Archer is 1-0, 1.38 in two starts this season.
-- Elias has a 2.70 RA in his first two MLB starts.
-- Chavez is 0-0, 2.77 in two starts this season.

•Cold Pitchers
-- RHernandez has a 5.23 RA in two starts this season.
-- Rodriguez is 0-4, 4.91 in his last four starts. Bailey is 0-3, 7.20 in his last four outings.
-- Zimmermann is 0-1, 6.59 in his last three starts. Hand is 0-1, 5.65 in his last three outings.
-- Lynn has a 6.55 RA in his first two starts, but Cardinals won twice, scoring seven runs in both games.
-- Wheeler is 1-4, 4.82 in his last five starts. Collmenter is making his first start since 2012-- he was 15-13, 3.53 in 35 starts in 2011-12.
-- Stults is 0-2, 6.52 in two starts this season.

-- WChen is 1-1, 6.19 in his last three starts.
-- Lewis is making first start since July, 2012 (injury); he was 32-29 in his 80 starts from 2010-12.
-- Santiago is 0-2, 7.71 in two starts this season.

•Totals
-- Last four Atlanta games went over the total.
-- Four of last five Miami games went over total.
-- Last three Pittsburgh games stayed under total.
-- All six games at Miller Park stayed under total. Five of last six Cardinal games went over.
-- Five of seven Arizona home games went over total.
-- Over is 5-1-1 in Colorado road games; under is 5-1 in Padre home games.

-- Five of six games at Camden Yards stayed under.
-- Four of last five Texas home games stayed under total.
-- All six Angel home games went over the total.

•Hot Teams
-- Braves won four of their last five games. Phillies won their last three.
-- Milwaukee won its last nine games. Cardinals won four of last six.
-- San Diego won three of its last four games.

-- Tampa Bay won three of four series openers.
-- Rangers won four of their last five home games.
-- Oakland won six of its last seven games. Angels won three of their last four.

•Cold Teams
-- Marlins lost their last seven games. Washington lost its last three.
-- Reds lost seven of their last ten games. Pittsburgh lost four of last five.
-- Arizona lost its last five home games.
-- Colorado lost five of its seven road games.

-- Orioles lost four of their last five home games.
-- Mariners lost three of their last four games.

Diamond Trends - Monday
•ARIZONA is 13-29 (-20.8 Units) against the money line versus good baserunning teams - averaging 0.85 or more SB's/game over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was ARIZONA 3.9, OPPONENT 5.1.

•LA ANGELS are 18-4 OVER (+14 Units) versus an excellent bullpen whose ERA is 3.00 or better over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was LA ANGELS 4.1, OPPONENT 6.2.

•NY METS are 51-19 (+23.8 Units) against the run line as a road underdog when the run line price is -190 to +165 over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was NY METS 4.4, OPPONENT 4.2.

•ZACK WHEELER is 7-1 (+9.6 Units) against the money line in road games versus National League teams scoring 4.3 or less runs/game on the season over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was WHEELER 6.4, OPPONENT 2.4.

•JORDAN ZIMMERMANN is 9-0 OVER (+9.1 Units) when playing on Monday over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was ZIMMERMANN 6.6, OPPONENT 5.1.

Situation Analysis of The Day
•Play Against - Road teams against a run line of (+1.5, -210) to (-1.5, -255) (ATLANTA) - very bad National League offensive team (<=3.8 runs/game) against a team with a below avg. bullpen (ERA>=4.50), with a good bullpen that converts on 75%+ of their save opportunities.
(38-8 since 1997.) (82.6%, +27.8 units. Rating = 4*)

The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is : (29-17)
The average run line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 1.5, money line price: -128
The average score in these games was: Team 5, Opponent 3.9 (Average run differential = +1.1)
The number of games in which this system covered the run line by 1 or more runs was 29 (63% of all games.)

The situation's record this season is: (0-0, +0 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (3-1, +1.8 units).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (10-1, +8.8 units).
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STATSYSTEMS SPORTS STAT/SHEETS, 4/14/14
NATIONAL BASKETBALL ASSOCIATION
INFORMATION WORTH BETTING ON EACH DAY
_________________________________________


***** Monday, 4/14/14 NBA Information *****
(ALL RESULTS ATS) - Against The Spread - and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Each and every day during the 2013-14 National Basketball Association season we will analyze all of your daily basketball action, featuring all our Highly-Rated (Situational & Match-up) Power Trends, along with some of our Situational Analysis (Betting Systems) that pertain to some of that days match-ups.
___________________________________________________

Three Teams Books Don't Want To Win The NBA Title
Calling it a doomsday scenario is a bit of an exaggeration but there is certainly one matchup sportbooks don’t want to see come the National Basketball Association Finals in June: The Brooklyn Nets versus the Los Angeles Clippers.

“The Nets would be a very bad result for us if they win the East and eventually go on to win the NBA Title,” Michael Stewart of CarbonSports.ag told us here at StatSystemsSports.net. “We took decent action on them to start the season. Then they got off to an awful start and their odds got as high as 200/1. When you’re taking action at those odds it doesn’t take much to get exposed, and we did.”

As for the Clippers, it seems to be as much about their proximity to Nevada as it is about their strong play this season. “Being in Reno, we usually always have more exposure on the “local” teams such as the Warriors and Lakers,” explains Steve Mikkelson, sportsbook director of the Atlantis Casino. “This year with the Lakers being as bad as they are, the attention was shifted to the Clippers.”

However, the books do seem very sanguine about the chances of this matchup coming to fruition. As No. 3 and No. 5 seeds respectively, the Clips and Nets would have to go through some formidable opponents – Spurs, Thunder, Heat, and Pacers - without home-court advantage to meet for the right to raise the Larry O’Brien Trophy. As for the favorites, the books are quite comfortable with their current positioning. In fact, Stewart says it is only the New York Knicks (besides the Nets) that has them exposed at all.

“I don’t understand the fascination our bettors had with this Knicks team but they were a bet on team for our customers most of the year and they lost money on them throughout the season,” says Stewart. “And they bet them to win both the East and the NBA Title. We’ve had some very high odds on them but we’re talking about a team that isn’t going to even make the playoffs.”

Betting Notes - Monday
•Hot Teams
-- Celtics won last two games, covered three of last four.
-- Raptors won five of their last six games.
-- Wizards won six of their last nine games.
-- Bobcats won six of their last seven games.
-- Atlanta won five of its last six games.
-- Bulls won seven of their last eight games.
-- Spurs won 22 of last 24 games (7-2 ATS L9).
-- Rockets won 14 of their 15 home games.
-- Thunder won three of their last four games.
-- Grizzlies won four of their last five games.
-- Warriors covered four of their last five games.

•Cold Teams
-- 76ers lost 32 of their last 34 games (6-2 ATS L8).
-- Bucks lost seven of last eight games (3-5 vs. spread).
-- Miami lost four of its last six games.
-- Magic lost five of their last seven games.
-- Pelicans lost last eight games (3-1 ATS L4).
-- Utah lost nine of last ten games.
-- Lakers lost last seven games (0-4-1 vs. spread L5).
-- Suns lost four of their last seven games.
-- Minnesota lost five of its last six road games.

•Totals
-- Seven of last nine Boston games went over the total.
-- Four of last five Milwaukee games went over total.
-- Last five Washington games stayed under the total.
-- Nine of last eleven Bobcat-Hawk games went over.
-- Four of last five Orlando games stayed under.
-- Last seven Houston games went over the total.
-- Five of last seven New Orleans games went over.
-- Five of last six Laker games stayed under the total.
-- Under is 25-15 in Memphis road games this year.
-- 12 of last 15 Minnesota-Golden State games stayed under.

•Series Records
-- 76ers are 10-9 L19 games with Boston, 2-1 this season.
-- Raptors are 3-0 versus Milwaukee this year.
-- Heat won/covered five of last six games with Washington.
-- Hawks won their last eleven games with Charlotte.
-- Bulls won nine of last eleven games with Orlando.
-- Spurs lost their last four games with Houston.
-- Pelicans lost their last ten games with Oklahoma City.
-- Lakers lost six of last eight games with Utah.
-- Grizzlies won six of their last eight games.
-- Warriors won seven of last eight games with Minnesota.

Hoop Trends - Monday
•SAN ANTONIO is 12-1 ATS (+10.9 Units) after a game where they made 12 or more 3 point shots this season.
The average score was SAN ANTONIO 108.1, OPPONENT 90.5.

•GOLDEN STATE is 15-2 UNDER (+12.8 Units) revenging a straight up loss versus opponent as a favorite this season.
The average score was GOLDEN STATE 98.9, OPPONENT 90.2.

•CHARLOTTE is 19-4 (+14.6 Units) against the 1rst half line versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game - 2nd half of the season this season.
The average score was CHARLOTTE 52.0, OPPONENT 48.0.

•SAN ANTONIO is 23-6 UNDER (+16.4 Units) the 1rst half total versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing <=14 turnovers/game this season.
The average score was SAN ANTONIO 52.6, OPPONENT 44.1.

•RANDY WITTMAN is 4-21 ATS (-19.1 Units) versus teams who average 48 or less rebounds/game - 2nd half of the season in all games he has coached since 1996.
The average score was WITTMAN 89.9, OPPONENT 98.9.

Situation Analysis of The Day
•Play Against - Road underdogs versus the money line (LA LAKERS) - poor team - outscored by their opponents by 3+ points/game, after 2 straight blowout losses by 15 points or more, in a game involving two average free throw shooting teams (72-76%).
(60-6 over the last 5 seasons.) (90.9%, +46.7 units. Rating = 5*)

The average money line posted in these games was: Team favored with a money line of: -221.7
The average score in these games was: Team 106.2, Opponent 94 (Average point differential = +12.1)

The situation's record this season is: (10-2, +6.9 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (30-3, +24.7 units).
Since 1996 the situation's record is: (173-30, +65.7 units).
___________________________________________

Dave Essler - Monday MLB Notes

Atlanta-Philadelphia: A lot of people probably went down with Gio, and I admit I was ALMOST one of them. Especially when the Braves put out their "B" lineup, and given how many chances they'd given Washington on Saturday. IMO they're going to need Santana to pitch deep, because the Braves bullpen has been used and hit lately. And there's not a lot of familiarity there, so there's every reason to think he might. Fausto needed 100+ pitches to get through five innings against Milwaukee last week, but the Braves haven't seen much of him, either, which would make me lean under. However, it's warm with a stiff breeze blowing out to left. Since the total is only at 8 with that wind, I lean under, mainly because Atlanta is simply a HR team and so are the Phillies. At only -130 or so it seems like they're asking for Atlanta money. With Utley and Howard hot, if Revere is playing, I may personally play the Philadelphia RL.

Washington-Miami: Always tough to take the Fish in a first-game back, but as badly as the Nationals are playing (3 errors on Sunday) even backing Zimmerman might be tough. They're also just not getting any timely hits. Zimmerman was torched by the Fish last week, and I mean torched. Usually we look for the pitcher to make the adjustments, but Miami has seen enough of him to think they can stay in this game. If they can get to the Nationals bullpen, which was worked by Atlanta, they've got a real shot. Without Zimmerman, Ramos, and now perhaps Span, I can't take Washington here. Miami is 5-2 at home with a bullpen ERA of 0.40. They beat the Fish three straight in Washington last week, which might be enough motivation to overcome the first game back thing. I may look hard at the series price, because if Miami can pull this one out, they get Jose and a shot at winning two of three.

Pirates-Reds: Well, Pittsburgh simply isn't hitting right now. I suppose part of that could be Lohse and Volquez being freaks, and their bullpen has already blown two saves. Since we were on the Rays on Sunday, I did have the occasion to watch most of that game. Honestly, Tampa Bay made the Reds offense look better than it really was with all the walks, and by the late innings it just didn't matter, as Maddon simply emptied the bullpen. With Bruce and Votto being about a combined 2-21 against Liriano, I might make a case for the Pirates. But, since Bailey has only been hit by Russell Martin who's probably not playing, the under looks far more appealing. I thought the Reds' bullpen would let them down today, but it may be Monday. Wind blowing out again to LF, so IMO this is ALL about whether Liriano can keep the ball down.

St. Louis-Milwaukee: Sooner or later we'll have to get in front of the train this is the Brewers. But, Garza has been almost unhittable and is one of the best in baseball at keeping the ball in the park and inducing ground ball outs. There's nobody on the Cardinals team that's done a ton against him, either, so getting in front of the train may have to wait. I keep waiting for the Brewers pen to implode, but unless and until it does I can't bet against them. Lynn has been miserable his first two starts, but has had some success in the past against Milwaukee, and last year was just not backable on the road. Brewers not tearing the cover off the ball lately, but doing it with pitching. With that in mind, at 8 I like the under here.

Mets-D-Backs: Well, the Mets were handed their ass in Los Angeles, but perhaps more importantly Wright and Murphy were ejected, which tells me they're at least playing with passion. It appears that Arizona is not, and Arizona brings Collmenter back from the bullpen, which is always scary since Arizona doesn't have much of one to begin with. Mets have had some success, namely the aforementioned two that were ejected, against Collmenter. Almost because they Angels pounded the shit out of the Mets, whatever "decent" relief pitchers they had weren't used. Fairly big total as you might expect, and perhaps too big. "9" in the NL is a lot. Wheeler WILL throw a lot of pitches, so he could save some innings on the other end. The Mets are just playing better, and although the D-Backs have a potent offense, one has to wonder where there heads are at right now. Lean Mets.

Rockies-Padres: Really annoyed I tweeted Padres RL on Sunday and didn't play it. Almost an automatic at -135 in what was going to be a low scoring game. Don't let me make that mistake again. Rockies bullpen has simply been used a ton lately, and after coming back to tie, only to lose in 10, to the Giants, I wonder where they're at mentally. Lyles has been great the first two starts, but against the White Sox and Miami. Eventually the Astros may wish they'd kept him. The Padres have individually had their way with him, so there's not much chance of taking Colorado here. Stults has not fared well, but this will be his first home start. Colorado has had some success against him, but probably not enough for me to get behind with that bullpen. They're (Colorado) 2-5 on the road and 0-3 against LHP.

Rays-Orioles: The one good thing we did on Sunday was not follow the lemmings on Baltimore. We put that in our work, too, saying that taking Baltimore would mean backing Ubaldo, which we just weren't going to do. Plus, because we were on them Saturday and watched most of the game, they appeared listless and just couldn't get any timely hits. Chen's been battered a couple of times, but has has success against the Rays. Ah, the Rays. Perhaps a bit under valued after the Reds bashing which was far more self-inflicted than it looked, and they did hit Cingrani a bit. Since Archer tends to keep the ball in the ballpark and has been very efficient (less need for the pen) I do think the Rays have a shot here.

Oakland-Angels: Don't quite grasp the move to the Angels here, not with the pitching the A's have had. I suppose Santiago has done well against the A's, but he's had a rough start and is not going to pitch deep (typically) bringing in the Angels pen which we don't ever like to trust. I do see that several of the key Angels have hit Chavez a bit, so this could be an over reaction to the Angels bats waking up Sunday. Lowrie rested on Sunday in Seattle, and the A's are already 3-0 against LHP's. At 8.5 I like the under here.

Today's MLB Picks

St. Louis at Milwaukee

The Cardinals look try to cool down the red-hot Brewers and come into tonight's series opener with an 8-2 record in the last 10 contests between the two teams in Milwaukee. St. Louis is the pick (+110) according to Dunkel, which has the Cardinals favored by 1/2 a run. Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (+110). Here are all of today's picks.

Cappers Access

Magic +12
Braves -140
A's +115

tgunn11 said:

Baseball Crusher
Baltimore Orioles +106 over Tampa Bay Rays
(System Record: 9-0, won last game)
Overall Record: 9-6

Click to expand...

Rest of Crusher's Plays Today:

New York Mets +114 over Arizona Dbacks
Oakland Athletics +101 over Los Angeles Angels
San Diego Padres -120 over Colorado Rockies


Utah Jazz + Los Angeles Lakers OVER 214
Chicago Bulls + Orlando Magic UNDER 185
Memphis Grizzlies + Phoenix Suns OVER 197.5

Free Selection from Arthur Ralph Sports

Bonus Play MON: Braves -140

Gamblers Data

Bonus Plays Monday

Tampa Bay Rays -120

A’s/Angels over 8.5

XpertPicks

MONDAY

TOP HOOPS PLAYS OF THE DAY

• Play Chicago -12 over Orlando (NBA)---RISK 8% OF YOUR BANKROLL
  8:00 PM EST

Orlando has lost 25 of the last 37 road games against the spread and they have also lost 35 of the last 57 games against the spread when playing their 2[SUP]nd[/SUP] game in five days. Orlando has lost 34 of the last 59 games against the spread when revenging a home loss vs. an opponent and they have lost 35 of the last 62 games against the spread when playing as an underdog.

• Play Utah -5 over Los Angeles Lakers (NBA)---RISK 8% OF YOUR BANKROLL
  9:00 PM EST

Los Angeles has lost 28 of the last 39 games when playing as a road underdog and they have also lost 23 of the last 32 games when playing in the 2[SUP]nd[/SUP] half of the season. Los Angeles has lost 13 of the last 17 games vs. Northwest Division Opponents and they have lost 21 of the last 26 games when revenging a loss of ten points or more.

=========================================================


NHL HOCKEY

Playoffs Start Wednesday

XpertPicks

MONDAY BASEBALL

• Play Atlanta -125 over Philadelphia----RISK 8% OF YOUR BANKROLL
  7:10 PM EST

Roberto Hernandez has lost 14 of the last 18 night games and he has lost 8 of the last 10 games vs. division opponents. Roberto Hernandez has lost 11 of the last 17 games when pitching in the 1[SUP]st[/SUP] half of the season and he has lost 11 of the last 14 games when pitching as an underdog of +100 or higher.

• Play San Diego -110 over Colorado----RISK 8% OF YOUR BANKROLL
  10:10 PM EST

Eric Stults has won 9 of the last 12 games when pitching on a Monday and he has won 14 of the last 21 games when the total posted is 7 runs or less. Eric Stults has won 13 of the last 16 games when pitching as a home favorite of -110 or higher and they have won 21 of the last 36 games when pitching in the 1[SUP]st[/SUP] half of the season.

=======================================================================

• Play Pittsburgh +115 over Cincinnati----RISK 3% OF YOUR BANKROLL
• Play St. Louis +115 over Milwaukee----RISK 3% OF YOUR BANKROLL

FantasySportsGametime

MONDAY
NBA BASKETBALL

1000* Play Chicago -12 over Orlando (NBA TOP PLAY)
8:00 PM EST

Orlando has lost 33 of the last 36 games when playing as an underdog of 10 points or more and they have also lost 35 of the last 39 road games. Orlando has lost 18 of the last 23 games when playing their 2[SUP]nd[/SUP] game in five days and they have lost 36 of the last 49 games after having lost four or five of the last six games.


50* Play Utah -5 over Los Angeles Lakers (NBA BONUS PLAY)
50* Play Phoenix -3.5 over Memphis (NBA BONUS PLAY)

=========================================


NHL HOCKEY


NHL Hockey Plays Return Wednesday

FantasySportsGametime

MLB Baseball

1000* Play St. Louis +115 over Milwaukee (MLB TOP PLAY)

St. Louis has won 26 of the last 42 games when playing on a Monday and they have also won 34 of the last 58 games when playing in the month of April. St. Louis has won 100 of the last 169 games vs. division opponents and they have won 23 of the last 34 games vs. Milwaukee.


1000* Play Oakland -110 over Los Angeles Angels (MLB TOP PLAY)

Oakland has won 51 of the last 78 games when the total posted is between 8 and 8.5 runs and they have won 93 of the last 171 road games. Oakland has won 26 of the last 40 games when playing on a Monday and they have won 109 of the last 167 games when playing as a favorite of -110 or higher.

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50* Play Atlanta -125 over Philadelphia (MLB BONUS PLAY)
50* Play Baltimore +110 over Tampa Bay (MLB BONUS PLAY)

BeatYourBookie

MONDAY

NBA Basketball


10* Play Utah -5 over Los Angeles Lakers (NBA TOP PLAY)
10* Play Phoenix -3.5 over Memphis (NBA TOP PLAY)


NHL Hockey


Hockey Resumes Wednesday for Playoffs

The philly godfather
NBA [514] TOTAL u185½-117 (B+½) (ORLANDO vrs CHICAGO) 117.00 USD / 100.00 USD: