| Range | W | L | P | +/- (Units) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yesterday | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | -4.00 |
| Last 30 Days | 20 | 21 | 0.00 | +6.84 |
| Season to Date | 20 | 21 | 0.00 | +6.84 |
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All plays are 2 units. Tampa is 2.08 to win 2
HOME TEAM IN CAPS
N.Y. Mets +115 over ARIZONA
At some point the Diamondbacks may get off the mattress but right now this team is 4-11 and they’re finding ways to lose. Arizona is 1-8 in nine home games thus far. It seems like every game they are behind four or five runs and trying to play catch up. Josh Collmenter went 5-5 for the Snakes last year in a relief role, appearing in 49 games while starting none. Collmenter posted a 3.13 ERA but a lucky 29% hit rate and 77% strand rate was the driving force behind that ERA. His xERA of 4.24 last season is a better measure of his true skills. Collmenter’s unorthodox delivery has helped him build a respectable strikeout rate despite an 87 mph fastball. There are more warning signs too. Collmenter’s control is trending in the wrong direction and his groundball/line-drive/fly-ball profile of 33%/21%/47% makes him a huge risk at Chase Field. Now asked to start in front of an extremely taxed bullpen, Collmenter and the D-Backs are not an appealing proposition here.
Zack Wheeler has been unlucky (41% hit%) in his two starts this season. His underlying skill set looks strong and is worth a play today. Facing the Diamondbacks in Arizona is not an ideal setting for pitching but Wheeler has been much stronger on the road through his first 19 MLB starts. In 10 road starts, he is 5-2 with a 2.73 ERA and 1.28 WHIP, compared to a 4.70 ERA and 1.49 WHIP in nine home starts. Wheeler’s ugly 5.73 ERA and 1.55 WHIP in those two aforementioned starts not only has him undervalued, but it’s also hiding the fantastic skills he has posted that include 12 K’s and two walks in 11 frames and a 46% groundball rate. We’re buyers of skill sets and xERA, not ERA and Wheeler’s xERA in two starts is 2.66. Regression in his ERA is 100% forthcoming over his next few starts and we’re willing to bet it begins here.
MILWAUKEE -1 +127 over St. Louis
The Brewers hot start is no fluke. We previewed them in our over/under win totals for the year and they’re actually looking better with each passing game. The Brewers have everything. They have speed, power, outstanding defense, pitching and a bullpen and it’s all been on full display during their current 9-game winning streak. Miller Park was electric over the weekend and that figures to continue here as fans are flocking to their games. Matt Garza has yet to win a game in two starts but that can’t last because Garza’s 2.57 ERA and 0.93 WHIP comes with full skills support. In 14 innings, Garza has an elite 14% swinging strike rate to go along with an elite 62% groundball rate. He’s whiffed 11 batters while walking just three and his four-seam fastball velocity has jumped from 92.8 last season to 93.4 mph this year.
Lance Lynn is 2-0 and is living proof that W/L records are misleading. Lynn has maintained outstanding control but he’s been tagged for 16 hits in 11 innings with two of those knocks leaving the park. Both of Lynn’s starts have occurred against a very ordinary Cincinnati batting lineup and he now takes a step up in class against a very confident and dangerous Brewers lineup. Lynn has a 6.55 ERA and 1.55 WHIP after two starts. Lynn’s swinging strike rate of 8% in his two starts along with his 31%/41% groundball/fly-ball split suggest more volatility is forthcoming. If justice prevails, Lynn will take his first loss here while Garza will pick up his first, well-deserved victory.
Tampa Bay -104 over BALTIMORE
The Orioles scored five runs in their three games against the Blue Jays this past weekend and were unable to score a single run on a broken down Dustin McGowan on Friday. In six home games thus far, the Orioles are batting just .210. Indeed it’s early and we can’t put too much emphasis on early stats but it also can’t be ignored when a team is laboring and the Orioles are a team that is laboring right now. The O’s 3.8 runs per game ranks 20th in the league and their run difference per game ranks 26th in the league. Playing the Rays is not likely a good remedy for Baltimore because Tampa is a team they rarely defeat. Tampa Bay won 13 of 19 meetings against the O’s last year, including 11 of the last 13. Wei-Yin Chen went 7-7 for the Orioles a year ago in 23 starts and posted a 4.04 ERA. Chen is a decent middle of the rotation option but there is trouble brewing under the hood that says to avoid him right now. In his two starts, Chen’s 35%/30%/35% groundball/line-drive/fly-ball profile is alarming. His swinging strike rate of 7% is one of the lowest of any pitcher in the league that has made two starts. Last year's strikeout rate seemed fishy given his pedestrian strikeout numbers in the Japanese League and sure enough, it appears that MLB hitters have seen him enough now and he’s not fooling them anymore. In two starts, Chen has a 6.75 ERA to go along with a 1.97 WHIP and while he is better than those numbers suggest, he’s still a pitcher in peril.
Chris Archer saw his skills surge in the second half of 2013 and it wasn't a fluke. Archer’s 95-mph average fastball velocity in the 2H was the second highest in the AL and he hasn’t lost any of it this year. Everything in Archer’s profile is trending the right away including groundball rate, strikeouts, WHIP and control. This is another thoroughbred from the Tampa pitching stable that at the age of 25 is a serious threat to win 20 games and post an ERA under 2.50. Archer is the real deal and in a pitching mismatch of this magnitude, you will not see a price on Archer this cheap again so now is the time to buy now.
