The legend and cult of the $2.345 million Lion’s Share slot machine at MGM Grand

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The legend and cult of the $2.345 million Lion’s Share slot machine at MGM Grand


LionsShareSlotMachineMGMGrand_t653.jpg
Royal Flusher
The legendary Lion’s Share slot machine at MGM Grand Las Vegas.

By <cite>Robin Leach</cite> (contact)
Wednesday, Feb. 19, 2014 | 4:28 p.m.
Lion’s Share slot machine at MGM Grand


Just what does a 20-year-old MGM Grand slot machine have that keeps people from around the world playing it day and night? The answer is a $2.345 million jackpot!
It’s 11 p.m. two days ago, and I find the Lion’s Share machine located on MGM Grand’s casino floor between Michael and Jenna Morton’s new restaurant Crush and the High Roller slots parlor directly across from the restaurant Grand Wok. An Asian couple has been playing it for five hours without pause. Six other people are patiently waiting in line for their shot at fame and fortune.
The machine is now the only one left of the original 50 that MGM Grand had for its opening two decades ago. It has become the stuff of legend, so much so that a worldwide cult following has grown around it.
I take the seventh seat in line that MGM Grand managers have kindly provided for the waiting players. Here’s a YouTube video of the most storied slot machine in Las Vegas history.
Justin Andrews, executive director of slot operations at MGM Grand, told me: “Lion’s Share has had a cult following for a long time. People are drawn to its history, as well as all the different theories surrounding it. It really has become somewhat of a legend.
“There has been a continual line of guests at the machine, sometimes 12 deep, waiting to take a shot at its life-changing jackpot. Everyone seems to be having a good time. We are starting to see a lot of bonding between the guests waiting in line, and our slot staff has been having a lot of fun with it.
“Lion’s Share has always been very popular and is among the most-played slot machines of the more than 2,000 we have throughout the entire casino. The machine could hit just about any time — this month, next month, this year, next year. There are no odds of it hitting because just like every slot machine, the jackpot hit would be totally random.
“Under Nevada law, we have an option to turn the machine off and move its jackpot to another machine with the same denomination; however, at this time the plans are to keep this machine operational. At this very moment, it is $2,345,404 and counting.
“We haven’t needed any special security: Everyone is very respectful of others who want to play, and there are a lot of kindred spirits in line.”
Justin told me that a Sigma Derby multi-player horse race machine near the buffet also has a cult following: “It is one of the oldest slot machines in existence; it accepts quarters, and it is constantly played. I have never seen the machine without players in all of my 11 years of working here, but this one doesn’t have a jackpot.”
It takes three lions in a row to win; no bells and whistles — it’s that old! MGM Grand President Scott Sibella, who starred on “Undercover Boss,” would be dragged out instantly — even in the middle of the night if — to pay the winner on the spot by check. The machine would be reset to $1 million. A meter on the machine, which is audited daily by MGM Grand accountants, shows players how the big prize increases with every bet.
You can play with just $1, but you have to play $3 for the giant jackpot, as smaller bets aren’t eligible for the $2 million-plus haul.
“In this past week alone, the nonstop waiting line has reached as many as 20 people deep. It’s played by people from age 21 to 100, and people are coming from overseas, especially Europe, to play it. The legend grows. It even has its own Facebook page for fans to swap rumors, stories and post photos. They’re there be it 3 a.m. or 3 p.m., 12 midnight or 12 noon. It’s become a club,“ Justin added.
Lion’s Share is a standard older mechanical slot machine and quietly sits there without screaming for attention with neither video nor neon lures. It has a retro look and those bygone era mechanical dials. This final machine is kept in active operation because Nevada state gaming laws stipulate that a progressive jackpot must be won by a player and not pocketed by a casino.
One rumor is that the eventual winner also will get to keep the machine. I watched as players talked to it, rubbed it and pushed its buttons in different ways.
“Players have a lot of theories of how to play it” said Justin.” I’ve seen people use their feet, their backsides. Some just push the buttons. Some push and rub the side quickly, some slowly.
“At some point presumably somebody will play $3 and walk away with well over $2 million, or it could grow slowly over time to $3 million until somebody wins.”
Midnight was nearing, and my spot in the line had moved up only two spots. The Asian couple was still playing after six hours. I’d seen the lion’s heads twice on different spinning cylinders. Another couple waiting in line decided to call it a night.
An English tourist waited just ahead of me. “Now I’m so close, I’ll hang out for as long as it takes,” he told me. “I’ve got $300 to play, and I could leave with $2 million. It’s worth the shot, and it could pay for my entire holiday.”
I was too tired to wait any longer, so I called it quits and figured that I’d return another day. But I’m keeping my eye on the Lion’s Share. Somebody has to win it!
 

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idiots
 
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According to the Wizard of Odds, the calculated expected return on this machine is 98.9% which makes it a lot better bet than many of the other casino games out there, although variance is much higher.

http://wizardofodds.com/games/slots/lions-share/

Deconstructing Lion's Share













Introduction

Lion's Share is a three-reel progressive slot machine found at the MGM Grand in Las Vegas. Given how old the machine is, and the high rate of turnover in the gaming business, nobody seems to know for sure the history of the game. However, I think it can be said it is the oldest slot machine in the MGM and the jackpot has not been hit in many years. By today's standards, it is very out of date, with mechanical reels, blurry graphics, and any cash-out requiring a hand pay.
Here are some of the rumors about Lion's Share.

  • It has been on the floor since the casino opening in 1993. — I'm not sure if it was there on day one, but based on the look of it, if it wasn't, it dates back to near the beginning.
  • Whoever hits the jackpot will get to keep the machine. — I've never seen anything official that says this, but I don't doubt it. The machine is clunky and old and I think the MGM won't want it any more after it hits. The value of an old slot machine like Lion's Share is about $500 at best, so I don't see why the MGM would want to keep it.
  • The MGM can't get rid of it until the progressive hits. — There is a lot of truth to this. Some player must win the accumulated money in the progressive, as it is considered player money. The Nevada Gaming Control Board wouldn't let the MGM just keep it. However, they would be allowed to let them move the money to another game, if their proposal of how to do it is accepted by Gaming.
  • The jackpot has never been hit — I've heard both this and it was hit twice in the early years but never hit again. I don't know which is true. A change in the EPROM chip could make it more difficult to hit.
  • The jackpot started at one million dollars — I can't confirm this either, but assume it to be true below.

Sometimes it is rumored in player circles the game may have a player advantage since the progressive has been growing for 20 years. That is where I come in. This page details my analysis of the game to determine how good of a bet it is.
Rules

The game is a $1 3-coin game. The following is the pay table.
Lion's Share Pay Table

Win1 Coins2 Coins3 Coins
Three Lions — On Payline$25,000$50,000Jackpot
Three Lions — Off Payline$500$1,000$10,000
Three sevens$100$200$300
Three 3-bar$50$100$150
Three 2-bar$20$40$60
Three 1-bar$10$20$30
Any three bar$5$10$15
Any two lions$5$10$15
Any one lion$2$4$6

<tbody>
</tbody>



The lion is wild in any position on the reel. Three positions are visible.
As of February 19, 2014, the jackpot was at $2,345,404.
Analysis

Wizard Data Only
I started playing this game on Jan 14, 2014. Between my own play and 153 spins seen on YouTube videos I have recorded how often each reel lands on each symbol. The following table shows my results.
Lion's Share Reel Survey

SymbolReel 1Reel 2Reel 3
Blank499708854
1-bar567171531
2-bar29144964
3-bar12717951
seven594056
Lion — off payline211912
Lion — on payline1086
Total157415741574

<tbody>
</tbody>



Based on the pay table and observed results, the following table show the probability and return of each event. The return column is the product of the win, probability, and (1/3). The reason for dividing by 3 is the bet amount of $3. In other words, the return column is relative to a $3 bet.
Lion's Share Return Table — Wizard Data Only

WinPaysProbabilityReturn
Three Lions — On Payline$2,345,4040.00000012310.096233
Three Lions — Off Payline$10,0000.00000374040.012468
Three sevens$3000.00011056510.011057
Three 3-bar$1500.00057205260.028603
Three 2-bar$600.00321915270.064383
Three 1-bar$300.01666571180.166657
Any three bar$150.12243771300.612189
Any two lions$150.00034680330.001734
Any one lion$60.03458438540.069169
Total0.17794024751.062492

<tbody>
</tbody>



So, based on this small sample size, the game returns 106.2% of money bet. With one or two coins bet, the return drops to 95.9%. Based on the small sample size, I would consider these results rough.
Wizard, AxiomOfChoice and SmokaLott Data Combined
On March 2, 2012, somebody named SmokaLott posted at Vegas Message Board that he played Lion's Share 10,000 times and got a lion on the center payline 33 times on reel 1, 42 on reel 2, and 34 on reel 3.
In early February, 2014, forum member AxiomOfChoice sent me his data on payline lions. In 1,896 spins he got the lion on the center payline 5 times on reel 1, 4 on reel 2, and 6 on reel 3. Looking at center payline lions only, here is the combined data.
Center Payline Lions

SymbolReel 1Reel 2Reel 3SpinsLions per 100 Spins
Wizard10861,5741.52
AxiomOfChoice5461,8960.79
Smokalot33423410,0001.09
Total48544613,4701.10

<tbody>
</tbody>



Combining this data, here is the center payline lion probability on each reel.

  • Reel 1: 0.0035635
  • Reel 1: 0.0040089
  • Reel 1: 0.0034150

Assuming these probability, and otherwise using the data from my spins for the other symbols, the return table looks as follows. Lion's Share Return Table — Combined Data

WinPaysProbabilityReturn
Three Lions — On Payline$2,345,4040.00000004880.038141
Three Lions — Off Payline$10,0000.00000296190.009873
Three sevens$3000.00010261150.010261
Three 3-bar$1500.00054954640.027477
Three 2-bar$600.00315383110.063077
Three 1-bar$300.01645348400.164535
Any three bar$150.12230100310.611505
Any two lions$150.00028873050.001444
Any one lion$60.03156154340.063123
Total0.17441376060.989435

<tbody>
</tbody>




The lower right cell shows a total return of 98.9%, based on three coins bet. With one or two coins bet the return drops to 94.4%.
Based on this combined data, the probability of hitting the jackpot is about 1 in 20.5 million. It is my understanding the jackpot started at one million dollars. If that is the case, and assuming everybody bets $3 at a time, the game would have been played about 60 million times. In this many spins, the expected number of jackpots is 2.9. The probability of never hitting a jackpot in 60 million spins is about 5.4%. I should remind my readers that each spin is independent, so the odds of hitting the jackpot are the same as it was for every other spin.
AxiomOfChoice is a good member on my forum, so I have no compunction about using his data.
As a scientific kind of guy, I hate to use data from somebody I've never heard of from a two-year-old forum post as the basis of my analysis of a game. However, The SmokaLot data looks reasonable to me, and his results are similar to the combined results of AxiomOfChoice and I.
I would like to return to gather more data, or hire somebody else to do it, but since a recent wave of publicity in the media it has been getting difficult getting on the machine. I would also hate to hog it for hours with a line waiting. For this reason, I am also publishing my results both ways, with my data only as well as the combined results of me, AxiomOfChoice, and SmokaLott.
Miscellaneous pieces of information about Lion's Share.

  • Based on the "combined data," the probability shown of the jackpot equates to a probability of 1 in 18,028,184.
  • The meter goes up by 0.75% of money bet.
  • Based on an Internet post, the jackpot was at $2,229,097 on March 19, 2011. This suggests a rate of increase of $167 per day.
  • For the lowest-level player, slot play earns Bonus Play and comps both at a rate of 0.33% of money bet.
  • Based on the "combined data," the return will be exactly 100% when the meter gets to $2,995,071.
 

Retired; APRIL 2014 Thank You Gambling
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zit,,, You I like,,,

the idiots that are wasting their time on this dumb slot machine I have pity for
 

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"Whoever hits the jackpot will get to keep the machine. — I've never seen anything official that says this, but I don't doubt it. The machine is clunky and old and I think the MGM won't want it any more after it hits. The value of an old slot machine like Lion's Share is about $500 at best, so I don't see why the MGM would want to keep it." ?

why would the mgm want to keep it? People are lining up to play a slot machine, pretty simple.
 

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Wonder how many fools only played 1 or 2 coins and limed up the lions.....more than we all think I bet
 

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I've spent more than a few dollars on this.....hit it almost every time in Vegas.
 

Stumblin' around, drunk on burgundy wine.
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That Asian couple are Dicks for playing it for 6 hours with a line of people waiting. Hope they lost all their money.
 

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