| Range | W | L | P | +/- (Units) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yesterday | 1 | 2 | 0.00 | -1.78 |
| Last 30 Days | 21 | 23 | 0.00 | +5.06 |
| Season to Date | 21 | 23 | 0.00 | +5.06 |
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Kansas City is a 2 unit play. The other 3 are to WIN 2 units
HOME TEAM IN CAPS
Pittsburgh -109 over CINCINNATI
Mike Leake is 1-1 in two starts with an ERA of 2.45, a WHIP of 0.89 and BAA of .180 and he’s precisely the reason you can’t put too much emphasis on a couple of early April starts. Leake seems to be carving out a role as a reliable soft-tosser, but don't expect many games like he had in his last start against St. Louis (8 IP - 4 hits - 0 ER). Pay more attention to Leake’s six strikeouts in the 14 innings he’s thrown this year. With so few Ks and BBs, a lot of balls are put in play—not a great thing for a pitcher who gives up a healthy number of line drives. He’s also at the mercy of hit% and strand% fluctuations. Leake has developed a reputation for being a control artist with a tendency to give up a few too many HRs. Such was the case last season when he surrendered 26 HRs in just 179 IP and in his first start this year against the Mets he was tagged for two more jacks. Mike Leake has a hit-and-miss profile that is tough to get excited about.
Gerrit Cole went 10-7 with a 3.22 ERA over 117 IP for the Pirates last season. His Triple-A numbers were mediocre but injuries to Pittsburgh’s rotation resulted in a June call-up and he's never looked back. Cole’s strong debut was capped by 1.69 ERA and 11.0 K’s per nine in September. Since September and including two starts this year, Cole has generated a 14%+ swinging strike rate on three separate pitches: slider (20%), changeup (15%), cutter (14%) and his four-seam fastball has averaged an impressive 96 mph. Cole’s command, groundball tilt intelligence and prospect billing all point to big things ahead. Invest.
Tampa Bay -105 over BALTIMORE
The Orioles bats woke up in the opener of this series and wouldn’t you know it, it occurred against Chris Archer, a starter projected to win 15-20 games. While that may have some a little hesitant to come back against the Orioles here, it’s not going to deter us in the least because Orioles starter, Miguel Gonzalez is a disaster waiting to happen. Gonzalez posted an 11-8 record with a 3.78 ERA in 171 IP for the O’s last season. Gonzalez is not a young prospect. Tommy John surgery in 2009 ate up two years of his career and he subsequently earned a promotion with a 1.61 ERA in AAA in 2012 but this level is another matter. Gonzalez’s career xERA of 4.67 reflects his pedestrian skills. In two starts this year he has a 5.37 xERA to go along with a 1.93 WHIP and an alarming 4% swinging strike rate. Miguel Gonzalez doesn't miss enough bats or get enough groundballs to keep the ball in the park. Take this projection seriously because this guy will not make it pass May or June.
Jake Odorizzi looks ready for the Show but beware of a history of K rate dropping on first exposure at each level before a recovery (Double-A 7.1 then 11.1 per nine - Triple-A 7.4 then 8.9). Still, Odorizzi has a four-pitch arsenal with a 91-mph fastball and his skills are trending up. An adjustment period is likely but for this one start, Odorizzi has a great chance to pitch with some run support and pick up a victory. This one is all about fading Gonzalez.
L.A. ANGELS -110 over Oakland
Dan Straily owns an elite 11.1% swinging strike rate, a mark that could support his strikeout rate even in the absence of mid-90s velocity and he is dominant against RH bats. His command evaporates against lefties and the Angels will get as many LH bats in the lineup here as possible. The key for Straily will be refining his change-up against LH bats. Hitters had a .500 SLG% against it and other than his four-seam fastball, it's the pitch he throws the most. Furthermore, Straily’s history against current Angels is not good. In 104 combined AB’s against Straily, current Halos have 33 hits (.317 BA) and when we remove Josh Hamilton’s 3 for 13 against him, that BA is even higher. In two starts at this park last year, Straily was 0-2 with a BAA of .294.
Enter one of the most undervalued pitchers in baseball. There are four reasons why a breakout is around the corner for Garrett Richards. 1) Surging groundball rate raises floor and gives him unique skill; 2) 95-mph fastball and a solid swinging strike lay foundation for more strikeouts; 3) starting/relief skills nearly identical; 4) high dominant start % confirms he's very close to taking a big step forward. Richards posted great command in four separate months during 2013, including an elite 60% groundball rate in the second half. He was able to generate a 50%+ groundball rate on four of the five pitches that he throws. Richards’ 2-0 start and 0.75 ERA this year is no fluke. He has 13 K’s in 12 innings and while he’s walked too many (8), you can expect that to regress because it’s never been much of an issue in the past. Richards has the raw stuff and approach to take a sustained step forward, making us instant buyers of his skills at such a low cost.
Kansas City -1½ +107 over HOUSTON
There's no split or combination that makes Lucas Harrell’s 2013 look good. Sure, the hr/f cost him a few points of ERA, but that's merely a quibble. Even a move to the bullpen didn't help--he had a 5.49 ERA and lousy command in 39 IP there. Fact is, Harrell’s skills were barely average in 2011-12 and they were worse last season so even a large regression won't leave him with much margin for error. In two starts this season, Harrell is 0-2 with an ERA of 11.05. He’s walked more batters (6) than he’s struck out (5) in just seven innings of work and that does not bode well against the patient Royals.
Kansas City is 4-7 and it has dropped three in a row, which has them as an undervalued team right now. Of more significance however, is that the Royals hitters have the LEAST amount of strikeouts in the league against both right-handed and LH pitchers and that spells big trouble for Lucas Harrell. It’s only a matter of time before those balls in play start finding some gaps and holes and this park is a gap haven for hitters. Yordano Ventura is a little guy with a big arm (fastball touches 100 mph) and secondary offerings that are still something of a work-in-progress. However, Ventura has top-of-rotation potential and if he really is figuring out control as quickly as recent results suggests, he could get there quickly. His spring training numbers include 18 K and 4 BB in 20.1 IP with a 1.77 ERA. In his first start this season against Tampa Bay, Ventura went six full and allowed just two hits and 0 earned runs, while striking out six and walking none. You can’t hit what you can’t see and these free swinging Astros figure to go quickly and quietly against this rising star.
