2 Wednesday w/analysis

Both games are 2.1 units to win 2
HOME TEAM IN CAPS

MILWAUKEE -105 over St. Louis
Joe Kelly began 2013 by losing the battle to be the Cardinals' No. 5 starter. By late summer, he was among the club's most dependable starters. He even posted a sub-3.00 ERA over 120-plus innings and his ERA over two starts this season is 0.79. Combine last year’s ERA and his 10-5 record with this year’s start and we have some numbers that are driving up Kelly’s value but we’re not buying it. Strip away the ERA and W/L record and Kelly's base skills hardly impress. Pedestrian strikeout and command rates strongly suggest he won't repeat last season's success. The 1.5-run hole between ERA and xERA is indicative of a pitcher who benefited from luck. History tells us Kelly will be hard-pressed to repeat his stellar 83% strand rate. Kelly's mid-90s velocity, Cardinals pedigree, ground ball tilt and a strong start to the year are all reasons why he's commanding more attention than he should. But we know from experience that strand rates will normalize over enough innings and pitchers with command rates below league average won't maintain a sub-3.00 ERA. All signs point to Kelly taking a significant step back and becoming the innings eater/swingman that we expected a year ago. It’s also worth noting the total in this game with two pitchers that have ERA’s of 0.79 and 2.25, respectively is 8½. That suggests the oddsmakers figure on some runs being scored in this game and we’re confident the total posted was driven up by Joe Kelly and not Wily Peralta.

Peralta’s groundball/line-drive/fly-ball profile after two starts is a sick 65%/9%/26%. There is no chance of him maintaining that low line-drive rate but it’s an example of Peralta’s natural raw stuff. Peralta is flashing a mid-90’s fastball and a dominant slider that are keeping hitters completely off balance. Peralta’s skills have been trending strongly the right way ever since the All-Star break last season. His one flaw has been his inability to get lefties out consistently but a tweak to that could springboard him into becoming a dominant pitcher. Having previewed Peralta, this one is still more about playing against Kelly, a pitcher whose luck is going to run out at some point.


Tampa Bay -105 over BALTIMORE
NOTE: LISTED PITCHERS MUST GO. The Orioles bats woke up in the opener of this series and wouldn’t you know it, it occurred against Chris Archer, a starter projected to win 15-20 games. While that may have some a little hesitant to come back against the Orioles here, it’s not going to deter us in the least because Orioles starter, Miguel Gonzalez is a disaster waiting to happen. Gonzalez posted an 11-8 record with a 3.78 ERA in 171 IP for the O’s last season. Gonzalez is not a young prospect. Tommy John surgery in 2009 ate up two years of his career and he subsequently earned a promotion with a 1.61 ERA in AAA in 2012 but this level is another matter. Gonzalez’s career xERA of 4.67 reflects his pedestrian skills. In two starts this year he has a 5.37 xERA to go along with a 1.93 WHIP and an alarming 4% swinging strike rate. Miguel Gonzalez doesn't miss enough bats or get enough groundballs to keep the ball in the park. Take this projection seriously because this guy will not make it pass May or June.

Jake Odorizzi looks ready for the Show but beware of a history of K rate dropping on first exposure at each level before a recovery (Double-A 7.1 then 11.1 per nine - Triple-A 7.4 then 8.9). Still, Odorizzi has a four-pitch arsenal with a 91-mph fastball and his skills are trending up. An adjustment period is likely but for this one start, Odorizzi has a great chance to pitch with some run support and pick up a victory. This one is all about fading Gonzalez.

S/wood..........good luck with your action today..........indy