| Range | W | L | P | +/- (Units) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yesterday | 1 | 1 | 0.00 | -0.10 |
| Last 30 Days | 23 | 26 | 0.00 | +2.72 |
| Season to Date | 23 | 26 | 0.00 | +2.72 |
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CHICAGO -½ +118 over Boston (1st 5 innings)
Jon Lester has some nice surface stats to begin the season which include a 2.57 ERA, a 1.10 WHIP and 20 K’s in 21 innings. While April stats can’t be completely ignored, they are a small sample size which helps to increase or decreases a pitcher’s true value. Even last season on the surface, Lester recovered nicely from his disastrous 2012, cutting his ERA by nearly one run. But a second look at his "recovery" cautions us to expect pre-'12 results. Most of Lester’s skills remain stagnant. His K rate didn't return to its previous elite levels and a look at his pedestrian swinging strike rate in '11 suggests we shouldn't have expected it to. Some of the strikeout rate loss was offset by lesser walks but his command remains uninspiring. Don't get too excited about Lester’s 2.89 ERA in the second half either, as it was driven primarily by a 78% strand rate and fluky 5% hr/f%, which he needed as his fly-balls rose from 32% to 39% in that span. In his three starts this season not much has changed in Lester’s under the hood stats. His swinging strike rate is at 8.9%, his strand rate is at an unsustainable 83% and it’s only a matter of time before some of those stranded base-runners start crossing the plate. This is an unforgiving park and Lester has had problems with the South Side over the past three years with a 5.87 ERA (5.12 xERA) and 2-3 record over five starts.
The loss of Mike Napoli for the Red Sox is a big one. The loss of Jacoby Ellsbury in the off-season is proving to be damaging as well. The Red Sox didn’t get better; they got older and worse with A.J. Pierzynski and Grady Sizemore and not much else. Already in six of their 15 games, Boston has scored two runs or fewer. Only three teams in the AL have a lower team batting average than the Red Sox (.236) and we can’t attribute it to a slow start because looking at this Boston lineup, we see lots of holes. Chris Sale should be able to avoid any threats in Boston’s lineup and dominate the rest of it. Sale has some of the nastiest stuff in the majors and he hasn’t come close to hitting his stride yet. Sale’s 77%/3% dominant start/disaster start split since the beginning of 2013 tells you all you need to know about how much he abused AL hitting. Bet confidently on Sale at a cheap price because he’s the straight goods that will be in the Cy Young discussion this season. The Red Sox are almost always over-bet and that’s absolutely the case here, providing us with solid value on a favorite.
Atlanta -½ +108 over PHILADELPHIA (1st 5 innings)
1:05 PM ES. The Braves went off for 11 hits yesterday against Cliff Lee but Lee’s 13 strikeouts and a key double-play prevented the Braves from scoring a bunch more. Prior to yesterday, Atlanta had scored six runs or more in four straight games and they have also won five straight. Current Braves have hit .309 against A.J. Burnett and that’s when he was throwing well. This year the problems for Burnett are endless. In 16 frames, Burnett has walked 14 batters and his 7% swinging strike rate is his lowest mark in his 12-year history. Burnett has a WHIP of 1.94 to go along with a BAA of .283 over his first three starts. In his only start at Citizens Bank Park this season, Burnett threw 106 pitches in 4.1 innings against the Marlins before being yanked after walking six and allowing two runs on five hits. Burnett has been able to maintain his high groundball rate over his first three starts, a skill that has enabled him to avoid the gopheritis that crippled him for long stretches. Keep in mind that Citizens Bank Park is much more HR-friendly than PNC Park and the Braves are second in the majors behind the Dodgers in going yard.
Alex Wood showed last season that he has an electric arsenal of high a groundball rate and a high strikeout rate. Early on in 2014, he is showing similar skills, which should answer any questions that lingered due to his poor September (4.89 xERA). In 19 innings, Wood has struck out 17, walked six and has posted a nifty 52%/20%/29% groundball/line-drive/fly-ball profile. Wood already has a victory over both Milwaukee and Washington this season with his only loss coming against the Nationals six days prior to defeating them. In that defeat, Wood was the hard luck loser after he went seven innings and allowed just four hits and two runs. Wood has been able to continue to throw strikes and his command at the majors has been better than the minors. In addition, he's been a groundball machine. Wood is showing all the signs of a polished high draft pick with significant college experience and he’s now starting to dominate hitters at this level as well. Nothing in his profile raises any flags making Wood and the Braves a very worthwhile investment.
PITTSBURGH -1 +144 over Milwaukee
Yovani Gallardo is 2-0 in three starts with a 0.96 ERA and a WHIP of 1.07. In 19 starts, he’s walked just three while striking out 13. Those numbers combined with the Brewers hot start has Gallardo very overvalued here. Gallardo had a sub-4.00 ERA in four straight seasons before he regressed to a 4.18 ERA in 2013. Before you hope for this rebound to continue, note that his skills have fallen off a cliff during the last two seasons. Strikeout erosion last year escalated into a freefall, moving Gallardo from star-potential power pitcher to groundball-inducing, innings-eating workhorse. Poor control has long made him a WHIP-killer, now substandard command says 4.00 ERA was mostly deserved. Even a mild rebound would only make him average. Don't overreact to Gallardo’s strong start because his 7% swinging strike rate and a lucky 90% strand rate over his first three starts screams regression is about to take place.
Edinson Volquez has started the season with two pure quality efforts, something he did in just 25% of his starts last season. Pirates pitching coach Ray Searage has shown he has the ability to turn around careers, evidenced by Francisco Liriano, Charlie Morton and A.J. Burnett to name a few. Volquez' 5.71 ERA last season was nearly a run and a half higher than his xERA of 4.28. Control issues have long been a problem for him, yet he has only walked three in his first 14 innings this season. Volquez has always had nasty stuff but his inability to throw strikes has made him a huge risk over the years. If his first two starts is any indication of what’s in store for Volquez, he will have big profit potential and we’ll put that to the test here.
