Probably not close since none of us know what to expect in these drafts, but it's still fun to look at and imagine who goes where...
[h=2]Kiper: Mock 4.0 goes two rounds[/h][h=3]Two full rounds of picks with surprises at quarterback in latest mock[/h]
ESPN INSIDER
• This does NOT reflect my prospect rankings. It reflects a projection of how I believe decision-makers for teams currently value players. For my latest prospect rankings go to the Big Board and the top 10 prospects by position.
• As you hear about players "rising" and "falling" among evaluators with teams, remember that while it can be a smokescreen, it also reflects the reality that even now, there are decision-makers who are still getting caught up with tape and evaluations on prospects. You never truly get perfect information in a market sense.
With those things noted, let's get into the picks.
1
Jadeveon Clowney
Houston Texans (2-14)
COLLEGE: South Carolina
Class: Jr
HT: 6-5
WT: 266
POS: DE
Analysis: I'm certain the debate about which player to take still exists, and whether the pick could be moved. I still think this could be a quarterback. But I believe that while more than one "safe" pick exists in this draft, it's hard to play it safer in terms of upside than selecting a generational physical talent, a guy who has exceptional physical skills and the ability to bring immediate impact and create consistent matchup problems up front as teams deal with the reality of how to block both Clowney and J.J. Watt. The questions on Clowney still aren't enough to diminish the potential impact. He's the top prospect in a draft full of very good ones, and I think Houston will feel the same.
2
Greg Robinson
St. Louis Rams (7-9)
COLLEGE: Auburn
HT: 6-5
WT: 332
POS: OT
Analysis: If I'm making the pick, I'm willing to consider Sammy Watkins here based on need, and would also certainly consider the option of moving down a few spots if the offer is rich enough. But Robinson is one of the better offensive linemen to enter the draft in years, with the upside of an All-Pro at left tackle, capable of neutralizing the best pass-rushers and absolutely mauling defenders in the run game. St. Louis can select him knowing an impact wide receiver is still going to be available at No. 13 (and even beyond that given the depth at the position).
3
Sammy Watkins
Jacksonville Jaguars (4-12)
COLLEGE: Clemson
Class: Jr
HT: 6-0
WT: 211
POS: WR
Analysis: The temptation to take a quarterback here may exist, but I look at the trajectory of this organization, both in performance and in personnel development, and I believe the Jaguars will look to take the best player available here, and in Watkins, they also add a dynamic talent at a position of need. Given the uncertain future of Justin Blackmon, the top two wide receivers on the roster are Cecil Shorts and Ace Sanders. Neither has the upside of Watkins, who will make the QB -- whoever that ends up being -- better.
4
Johnny Manziel
Cleveland Browns (4-12)
COLLEGE: Texas A&M
Class: Soph
HT: 5-11
WT: 207
POS: QB
Analysis: Manziel is not my top-rated QB, but he is the QB I believe (right now) is likeliest to go this high, as I believe a team like Cleveland, with a number of draft assets and a QB on the roster it feels can create a bridge to a young starter, is in a good scenario to take a chance on Manziel's ceiling. The Browns owning the No. 26 pick as well as an early second-rounder gives them a chance to take a player like Watkins here if available and consider a QB later, but this is how I see it as of right now.
5
Khalil Mack
Oakland Raiders (4-12)
COLLEGE: Buffalo
HT: 6-2
WT: 251
POS: OLB
Analysis: Oakland's move to add Matt Schaub puts the Raiders back in position to take the best player available as opposed to making a slight reach at quarterback. Mack gives the Raiders a needed pass-rusher, even though they've already spent some money on the position in free agency, adding Lamarr Woodley and Justin Tuck. Mack would also provide them with another good building-block player on defense, along with fellow linebacker Sio Moore. I also think the Raiders should consider moving down and collecting additional pick assets.
6
Taylor Lewan
Atlanta Falcons (4-12)
COLLEGE: Michigan
HT: 6-7
WT: 309
POS: OT
Analysis: I consider tackle a big need for Atlanta, a team that last year balanced an inability to consistently protect Matt Ryan with a consistent inability to open holes for anybody Ryan handed the ball off to. While Robinson and Jake Matthews are both very good players and should be at the next level, there's a case to be made that Lewan is the most ready tackle for NFL competition, with four good years under his belt. I think he could start at right or left tackle in Week 1.
7
Mike Evans
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-12)
COLLEGE: Texas A&M
Class: Soph
HT: 6-4
WT: 231
POS: WR
Analysis: The Bucs brought in a new QB and addressed some needs on defense in free agency, but I still see wide receiver as a pretty significant need, with Vincent Jackson 31 and entering what could be his final season in Tampa, and no depth behind him. And if you just want to be able to say you're drafting the best player available on the board at this slot, if you take Evans, you can do that too. Evans makes up for a lack of short-area burst (and thus the ability to separate underneath) by dominating at the catch point, particularly up high. The combination of him and Jackson will be a matchup nightmare, particularly in the red zone.
8
Blake Bortles
Minnesota Vikings (5-10-1)
COLLEGE: UCF
Class: Jr
HT: 6-5
WT: 232
POS: QB
Analysis: The combination of Matt Cassel and Christian Ponder will provide a bridge to Bortles, a player I believe would benefit from not starting early as he develops a familiarity with an offense that requires more downfield reads. I don't have Bortles rated as high as I do Bridgewater, but again, this is a projection of where players will be chosen, not my prospect rankings. What I will say is that I do believe Bortles has a high ceiling because he's a pretty special athlete with some really good instincts for the position; his pocket movement in particular is really impressive. When you consider his development trajectory, there's a lot to be excited about.
9
Jake Matthews
Buffalo Bills (6-10)
COLLEGE: Texas A&M
HT: 6-5
WT: 308
POS: OT
Analysis: I just really like this fit both in scheme and need, and Matthews is the best player left on the board at this point anyway. Despite my early belief that Cordy Glenn would be better on the right side, he's been a good player at left tackle, which means Matthews likely comes in as the needed solution on the right side. The transition from left tackle to right and vice versa tends to get tossed about as something that's no big deal, but it can be a tough one for players, which makes Matthews that much more valuable, because he's demonstrated an ability to, frankly, dominate on either side.
10
Ha Ha Clinton-Dix
Detroit Lions (7-9)
COLLEGE: Alabama
Class: Jr
HT: 6-1
WT: 208
POS: S
Analysis: The addition of James Ihedigbo in free agency doesn't diminish Detroit's need for more help at safety. Getting the top free safety in the draft, a guy who will distinguish himself with his ability to cover with great range, fills a pretty big personnel void for Detroit, and this isn't much of a leap in terms of where Clinton-Dix's name is stacked on most draft boards. I do think Detroit could consider a corner here, I just see Clinton-Dix as a better player and a likelier early impact maker for a team that should feel like it can be in the playoff picture if it can be better in coverage. The depth at CB in this draft means the Lions can add one later.
11
Justin Gilbert
Tennessee Titans (7-9)
COLLEGE: Oklahoma State
Class: Sr
HT: 6-0
WT: 202
POS: CB
Analysis: If I'm Tennessee I'm taking a hard look at drafting Teddy Bridgewater right here, but this is a mock draft and not "Mel's draft." The Titans took a hit at cornerback with the departure of Alterraun Verner and Gilbert will come in as an experienced player -- he was great as a sophomore and added two more years on top of that -- who also offers some spark in the return game. Gilbert was exceptional in workouts, and offers good size to match up against the growing list of big NFL wide receivers.
12
Eric Ebron
New York Giants (7-9)
COLLEGE: North Carolina
Class: Jr
HT: 6-4
WT: 250
POS: TE
Analysis: Here's a case where you can accuse me of projecting a team to take the same player I would if it was my decision. Ebron is a potential difference-maker for the next stage of Eli Manning's career, a big target in the passing game who can create constant matchup problems with his size and quickness underneath, and down the field with his speed and catch radius (again, size). The Giants have had four different tight ends catch the most passes at that position over the past four years. They could use a really good one.
13
Darqueze Dennard
St. Louis Rams (7-9)
COLLEGE: Michigan State
Class: Sr
HT: 5-10
WT: 199
POS: CB
Analysis: I'll get pilloried here for not making this a wide receiver, but do remember this is a very deep draft at that position, and getting the cornerback with the most diverse skill set in the draft would also really help this team. Dennard is ready to help an NFL team at a position where rookies tend to get beat up pretty bad early on as they adjust to the speed and talent level of NFL wide receivers. But Dennard can play on or off, attacks the backfield as a run defender, and can mirror routes as well as any CB in the draft. Yes, I think this could be Odell Beckham, too. We'll see.
14
Aaron Donald
Chicago Bears (8-8)
COLLEGE: Pittsburgh
HT: 6-0
WT: 285
POS: DT
Analysis: The Bears added Lamarr Houston and Jared Allen in free agency, a big help to the defensive line. But by the end of last season -- with injuries to blame -- no defensive line was in worse shape than Chicago's, and the team still needs to stack some more sandbags up front or the Bears are going to be in trouble against any team with a decent run game. Donald is the most disruptive interior defender in this draft, and precisely with the Bears need, a play wrecker from the 3-technique role.
15
Odell Beckham Jr.
Pittsburgh Steelers (8-8)
COLLEGE: LSU
Class: Jr
HT: 5-11
WT: 198
POS: WR
Analysis: Markus Wheaton, whom the Steelers got in last year's draft, can develop into a good player, but he's also the No. 2 wide receiver on this team as of today, and that can change if the Steelers grab Beckham. An explosive mover, Beckham can run by defenders, but also does a great job of creating space underneath. He's also the kind of player who becomes extremely dangerous and hard to cover when Ben Roethlisberger extends plays.
16
Zack Martin
Dallas Cowboys (8-8)
COLLEGE: Notre Dame
HT: 6-4
WT: 308
POS: OT
Analysis: Dallas fans might find this quizzical given the need along the defensive line, but consider what's available: Donald is out of the picture, I think Dallas should see this slot as too rich for a player like Anthony Barr, who is a questionable system fit anyway, and the top safety is also off the board. Martin makes sense as a player who can shore up the right tackle position, which is a problem area. I also think this is a place where the Cowboys could look to move if they don't see the value here at those bigger need positions. It's what they did last year.
17
Calvin Pryor
Baltimore Ravens (8-8)
COLLEGE: Louisville
Class: Jr
HT: 5-11
WT: 207
POS: S
Analysis: The Ravens have a pretty sizable void at safety, with no real starter-worthy player on the roster to pair with Matt Elam. Pryor represents a good solution, a player who can cover, and will come downhill and deliver hits with authority. Pryor isn't quite the ace in coverage that Clinton-Dix is, and if Clinton-Dix is available at this slot he could become the pick, but Pryor is hardly a consolation prize given his range and playmaking abilities, something the Ravens' defense needs.
18
Brandin Cooks
New York Jets (8-8)
COLLEGE: Oregon State
Class: Jr
HT: 5-9
WT: 189
POS: WR
Analysis: No player was a tougher cover in college football last year, and we learned why once we got to see Cooks run at the combine. This is a player who is every bit the athlete last year's top wide receiver selection Tavon Austin is, and Cooks is also a little bit bigger. He's just the type of player the Jets need, a tough cover both underneath and running intermediate routes. The Jets need more than one pass-catcher out of this draft, but I also said that last year and they went defense with the first two picks.
19
C.J. Mosley
Miami Dolphins (8-8)
COLLEGE: Alabama
Class: Sr
HT: 6-2
WT: 234
POS: ILB
Analysis: I don't consider this Miami's No. 1 need, but this is when "best player on the board" really comes into play. Mosley could be passed up until this range due to some injury concerns and positional value, but this is a big-time playmaker who can lead your defense and is worthy of going higher. The thing people need to remember about Mosley is he doesn't need to come off the field. The guy is a gifted player in coverage from his position.
20
Derek Carr
Arizona Cardinals (10-6)
COLLEGE: Fresno State
HT: 6-2
WT: 214
POS: QB
Analysis: My friend Todd McShay will cringe when he sees this -- he's been consistent in saying Carr is not worthy of being drafted remotely this high -- but this is a mock, not a player ranking. The Cardinals have a pretty good roster in place, will be getting an extra first-round pick when you consider that last year's first-rounder, Jonathan Cooper, will return from injury in 2014, and they don't have a worthy No. 2 behind Carson Palmer, who will turn 35 during the 2014 season. Carr is my fourth-ranked QB, and I can certainly see some other options here, including wide receiver, or right tackle.
21
Ryan Shazier
Green Bay Packers (8-7-1)
COLLEGE: Ohio State
HT: 6-1
WT: 237
POS: OLB
Analysis: While Mosley would also be a good fit here, with him off the board the Packers nab a similarly special linebacker in Shazier. This is a player with great instincts and range, an ability to attack the backfield and chase down plays across the field. He's also going to cover underneath and stay on the field. Watch Ohio State tape over the past two seasons, and you'll see Shazier consistently playing faster than everyone else. He'll line up next to A.J. Hawk and solidify a need spot for the Packers.
22
Kelvin Benjamin
Philadelphia Eagles (10-6)
COLLEGE: Florida State
Class: Soph
HT: 6-5
WT: 240
POS: WR
Analysis: I consider Benjamin a bit of a project, with his route running and consistency in need of development, but I can think of worse ideas than giving Chip Kelly the developmental keys to a player who stands a full 6-5 and at 240 pounds runs like guys 30 pounds lighter. The Eagles have Jeremy Maclin coming off a serious knee injury, and Riley Cooper remains, but minus DeSean Jackson they could use another matchup threat, and where it was speed for Jackson, it's size for Benjamin. Sometimes, there's not much you can do with him.
23
Marqise Lee
Kansas City Chiefs (11-5)
COLLEGE: USC
Class: Jr
HT: 5-11
WT: 192
POS: WR
Analysis: The Chiefs are a team I could see moving down, particularly since wide receiver is a need area. The Chiefs don't have their second-round pick due to the Alex Smith trade, and it's a deep draft at receiver. However, in this case I think they'd be walking away with a pretty nice fit in Lee, a player with the route-running and run-after-catch ability that could make him a great fit in this offense.
24
Bradley Roby
Cincinnati Bengals (11-5)
COLLEGE: Ohio State
Class: Jr
HT: 5-11
WT: 194
POS: CB
Analysis: We mentioned this on the First Draft podcast this week in breaking down the Bengals, but they're quietly pretty old in the secondary, with Terence Newman and Adam Jones both north of 30, and Leon Hall also close and coming off another injury-riddled season. In other words, corner could be a problem in a hurry in Cincy, and certainly the decision-makers there can see it and may not be content with just one cornerback from this draft. Roby can be a special player, with elite speed and change-of-direction quickness, he'll just need to clean up his fundamentals and avoid playing too physical.
25
Anthony Barr
San Diego Chargers (9-7)
COLLEGE: UCLA
Class: Sr
HT: 6-4
WT: 255
POS: OLB
Analysis: I also see cornerback as a possibility here, but the Chargers need another pass-rusher and Barr fits the scheme and offers the upside of a guy I once saw as a likely top-10 pick. Barr has dropped on my board and others because his senior tape didn't live up to the production, and I think he can often be too tentative in his reads and reactions. But we're still talking about a player who has shown the ability to disrupt in the passing game and his workouts didn't really disappoint, either. He's a good value here.
26
Kyle Fuller
Cleveland Browns (4-12)
COLLEGE: Virginia Tech
Class: Sr
HT: 5-11
WT: 190
POS: CB
Analysis: Depending on which game you're watching, you could walk away thinking Fuller is as good as or better than any cornerback in this draft, and the Browns can take him expecting a player who will contribute early at a position where they lack enough depth behind Joe Haden. Fuller has good size at 6 feet tall, and not only plays fast, but gets off the ground well to challenge high-point throws against taller pass-catchers. If Cleveland goes another route at No. 4, this is obviously a slot where the Browns could go with a QB.
27
Cody Latimer
New Orleans Saints (11-5)
COLLEGE: Indiana
Class: Jr
HT: 6-2
WT: 215
POS: WR
Analysis: No player has risen faster on my board recently, and I'm not alone. I'll give McShay credit -- he was raving about Latimer after he got to take a closer look at Indiana tape. Latimer was a player I saw as a likelier second-day pick based on my earlier work on him, but he's always looked good in the size/speed equation, it's just that a closer look shows you a player who was extremely reliable as a pass-catcher. The Saints need depth at wide receiver after losing one of Drew Brees' favorite targets in Lance Moore, not to mention the departure of Darren Sproles in a pass-catching sense.
28
Morgan Moses
Carolina Panthers (12-4)
COLLEGE: Virginia
HT: 6-6
WT: 314
POS: OT
Analysis: The additions of Jerricho Cotchery and Jason Avant aren't tantamount to a "fix" at wide receiver, and I could certainly see the Panthers going that direction. But if there's a run at the position as you have here, this may be a better place to take a possible starter at tackle, which is a pretty big deal considering they need a pair of them. Cam Newton's ability to run shouldn't be confused with a lack of need to even create a decent pocket, and I think that's a question mark. Carolina could also look at cornerback here, so the Panthers may just look for the best player available among a few positions where the need is pressing.
29
Ra'Shede Hageman
New England Patriots (12-4)
COLLEGE: Minnesota
HT: 6-5
WT: 310
POS: DT
Analysis: The Patriots know their personnel and developmental plans better than I do, I have no doubts, but we both know the age of their best interior linemen is a concern, with Vince Wilfork 32 years old and Tommy Kelly 33. Hageman is the kind of player this coaching staff could turn into something special, and working in rotation this season he could provide some immediate impact as well. He has surprising athletic ability for a player of his size, with great initial quickness which can jolt blockers and disrupt plays from the inside. He also has a long frame and an impressive vertical and will disrupt passing lanes.
30
Jordan Matthews
San Francisco 49ers (12-4)
COLLEGE: Vanderbilt
HT: 6-3
WT: 212
POS: WR
Analysis: The return of Anquan Boldin isn't enough for me to consider the wide receiver depth chart in San Francisco complete, and an experienced, projectable, reliable pass-catcher with underrated explosiveness both before and after the catch could provide some early impact for the 49ers. Matthews had been maligned for his lack of top-end speed, but his senior tape combined with a 4.46 40-time in Indy tells a different story, and it's hard to get past the fact that everyone knew Vandy wanted to get Matthews the ball, and nobody could keep him covered -- even in the SEC.
31
Jason Verrett
Denver Broncos (13-3)
COLLEGE: TCU
Class: Sr
HT: 5-9
WT: 189
POS: CB
Analysis: Even with the addition of Aqib Talib, Denver needs to add depth in the secondary, and while you like to simply take the best player on the board with a sense of a reasonably early role when looking in Round 1, I think this fits both a need and Denver's timeline. The Broncos know the Peyton Manning window, and targeting clear needs should be a little more of a conversation. Verrett is a capable corner who can make it look easy in coverage, and will also look for the big hit. He gives Denver needed depth. (You can't have enough corners, especially when you expect to play with the lead often.)
32
Stephon Tuitt
Seattle Seahawks (13-3)
COLLEGE: Notre Dame
HT: 6-5
WT: 304
POS: DE
Analysis: Seattle lost a little depth on the defensive interior, and I like the idea of Tuitt landing here not just because I think Pete Carroll and staff can maximize what I consider a significant level of talent, but because this is a team that can maximize players that aren't exactly a round peg in the traditional round holes we associate with classic schemes. Tuitt's the kind of defensive lineman who could work inside, or be a big body at defensive end, drive a tackle backward with a bull rush or help to create a formidable run-stopping front that frees up the linebackers to make plays. Seattle tends to surprise me, but this pick makes sense.
[h=2]Kiper: Mock 4.0 goes two rounds[/h][h=3]Two full rounds of picks with surprises at quarterback in latest mock[/h]
ESPN INSIDER
• This does NOT reflect my prospect rankings. It reflects a projection of how I believe decision-makers for teams currently value players. For my latest prospect rankings go to the Big Board and the top 10 prospects by position.
• As you hear about players "rising" and "falling" among evaluators with teams, remember that while it can be a smokescreen, it also reflects the reality that even now, there are decision-makers who are still getting caught up with tape and evaluations on prospects. You never truly get perfect information in a market sense.
With those things noted, let's get into the picks.
1
Jadeveon Clowney
Houston Texans (2-14)
COLLEGE: South Carolina
Class: Jr
HT: 6-5
WT: 266
POS: DE
Analysis: I'm certain the debate about which player to take still exists, and whether the pick could be moved. I still think this could be a quarterback. But I believe that while more than one "safe" pick exists in this draft, it's hard to play it safer in terms of upside than selecting a generational physical talent, a guy who has exceptional physical skills and the ability to bring immediate impact and create consistent matchup problems up front as teams deal with the reality of how to block both Clowney and J.J. Watt. The questions on Clowney still aren't enough to diminish the potential impact. He's the top prospect in a draft full of very good ones, and I think Houston will feel the same.
PLAYER CARD
2
Greg Robinson
St. Louis Rams (7-9)
COLLEGE: Auburn
HT: 6-5
WT: 332
POS: OT
Analysis: If I'm making the pick, I'm willing to consider Sammy Watkins here based on need, and would also certainly consider the option of moving down a few spots if the offer is rich enough. But Robinson is one of the better offensive linemen to enter the draft in years, with the upside of an All-Pro at left tackle, capable of neutralizing the best pass-rushers and absolutely mauling defenders in the run game. St. Louis can select him knowing an impact wide receiver is still going to be available at No. 13 (and even beyond that given the depth at the position).
PLAYER CARD
3
Sammy Watkins
Jacksonville Jaguars (4-12)
COLLEGE: Clemson
Class: Jr
HT: 6-0
WT: 211
POS: WR
Analysis: The temptation to take a quarterback here may exist, but I look at the trajectory of this organization, both in performance and in personnel development, and I believe the Jaguars will look to take the best player available here, and in Watkins, they also add a dynamic talent at a position of need. Given the uncertain future of Justin Blackmon, the top two wide receivers on the roster are Cecil Shorts and Ace Sanders. Neither has the upside of Watkins, who will make the QB -- whoever that ends up being -- better.
PLAYER CARD
4
Johnny Manziel
Cleveland Browns (4-12)
COLLEGE: Texas A&M
Class: Soph
HT: 5-11
WT: 207
POS: QB
Analysis: Manziel is not my top-rated QB, but he is the QB I believe (right now) is likeliest to go this high, as I believe a team like Cleveland, with a number of draft assets and a QB on the roster it feels can create a bridge to a young starter, is in a good scenario to take a chance on Manziel's ceiling. The Browns owning the No. 26 pick as well as an early second-rounder gives them a chance to take a player like Watkins here if available and consider a QB later, but this is how I see it as of right now.
PLAYER CARD
5
Khalil Mack
Oakland Raiders (4-12)
COLLEGE: Buffalo
HT: 6-2
WT: 251
POS: OLB
Analysis: Oakland's move to add Matt Schaub puts the Raiders back in position to take the best player available as opposed to making a slight reach at quarterback. Mack gives the Raiders a needed pass-rusher, even though they've already spent some money on the position in free agency, adding Lamarr Woodley and Justin Tuck. Mack would also provide them with another good building-block player on defense, along with fellow linebacker Sio Moore. I also think the Raiders should consider moving down and collecting additional pick assets.
PLAYER CARD
6
Taylor Lewan
Atlanta Falcons (4-12)
COLLEGE: Michigan
HT: 6-7
WT: 309
POS: OT
Analysis: I consider tackle a big need for Atlanta, a team that last year balanced an inability to consistently protect Matt Ryan with a consistent inability to open holes for anybody Ryan handed the ball off to. While Robinson and Jake Matthews are both very good players and should be at the next level, there's a case to be made that Lewan is the most ready tackle for NFL competition, with four good years under his belt. I think he could start at right or left tackle in Week 1.
PLAYER CARD
7
Mike Evans
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-12)
COLLEGE: Texas A&M
Class: Soph
HT: 6-4
WT: 231
POS: WR
Analysis: The Bucs brought in a new QB and addressed some needs on defense in free agency, but I still see wide receiver as a pretty significant need, with Vincent Jackson 31 and entering what could be his final season in Tampa, and no depth behind him. And if you just want to be able to say you're drafting the best player available on the board at this slot, if you take Evans, you can do that too. Evans makes up for a lack of short-area burst (and thus the ability to separate underneath) by dominating at the catch point, particularly up high. The combination of him and Jackson will be a matchup nightmare, particularly in the red zone.
PLAYER CARD
8
Blake Bortles
Minnesota Vikings (5-10-1)
COLLEGE: UCF
Class: Jr
HT: 6-5
WT: 232
POS: QB
Analysis: The combination of Matt Cassel and Christian Ponder will provide a bridge to Bortles, a player I believe would benefit from not starting early as he develops a familiarity with an offense that requires more downfield reads. I don't have Bortles rated as high as I do Bridgewater, but again, this is a projection of where players will be chosen, not my prospect rankings. What I will say is that I do believe Bortles has a high ceiling because he's a pretty special athlete with some really good instincts for the position; his pocket movement in particular is really impressive. When you consider his development trajectory, there's a lot to be excited about.
PLAYER CARD
9
Jake Matthews
Buffalo Bills (6-10)
COLLEGE: Texas A&M
HT: 6-5
WT: 308
POS: OT
Analysis: I just really like this fit both in scheme and need, and Matthews is the best player left on the board at this point anyway. Despite my early belief that Cordy Glenn would be better on the right side, he's been a good player at left tackle, which means Matthews likely comes in as the needed solution on the right side. The transition from left tackle to right and vice versa tends to get tossed about as something that's no big deal, but it can be a tough one for players, which makes Matthews that much more valuable, because he's demonstrated an ability to, frankly, dominate on either side.
PLAYER CARD
10
Ha Ha Clinton-Dix
Detroit Lions (7-9)
COLLEGE: Alabama
Class: Jr
HT: 6-1
WT: 208
POS: S
Analysis: The addition of James Ihedigbo in free agency doesn't diminish Detroit's need for more help at safety. Getting the top free safety in the draft, a guy who will distinguish himself with his ability to cover with great range, fills a pretty big personnel void for Detroit, and this isn't much of a leap in terms of where Clinton-Dix's name is stacked on most draft boards. I do think Detroit could consider a corner here, I just see Clinton-Dix as a better player and a likelier early impact maker for a team that should feel like it can be in the playoff picture if it can be better in coverage. The depth at CB in this draft means the Lions can add one later.
PLAYER CARD
11
Justin Gilbert
Tennessee Titans (7-9)
COLLEGE: Oklahoma State
Class: Sr
HT: 6-0
WT: 202
POS: CB
Analysis: If I'm Tennessee I'm taking a hard look at drafting Teddy Bridgewater right here, but this is a mock draft and not "Mel's draft." The Titans took a hit at cornerback with the departure of Alterraun Verner and Gilbert will come in as an experienced player -- he was great as a sophomore and added two more years on top of that -- who also offers some spark in the return game. Gilbert was exceptional in workouts, and offers good size to match up against the growing list of big NFL wide receivers.
PLAYER CARD
12
Eric Ebron
New York Giants (7-9)
COLLEGE: North Carolina
Class: Jr
HT: 6-4
WT: 250
POS: TE
Analysis: Here's a case where you can accuse me of projecting a team to take the same player I would if it was my decision. Ebron is a potential difference-maker for the next stage of Eli Manning's career, a big target in the passing game who can create constant matchup problems with his size and quickness underneath, and down the field with his speed and catch radius (again, size). The Giants have had four different tight ends catch the most passes at that position over the past four years. They could use a really good one.
PLAYER CARD
13
Darqueze Dennard
St. Louis Rams (7-9)
COLLEGE: Michigan State
Class: Sr
HT: 5-10
WT: 199
POS: CB
Analysis: I'll get pilloried here for not making this a wide receiver, but do remember this is a very deep draft at that position, and getting the cornerback with the most diverse skill set in the draft would also really help this team. Dennard is ready to help an NFL team at a position where rookies tend to get beat up pretty bad early on as they adjust to the speed and talent level of NFL wide receivers. But Dennard can play on or off, attacks the backfield as a run defender, and can mirror routes as well as any CB in the draft. Yes, I think this could be Odell Beckham, too. We'll see.
PLAYER CARD
14
Aaron Donald
Chicago Bears (8-8)
COLLEGE: Pittsburgh
HT: 6-0
WT: 285
POS: DT
Analysis: The Bears added Lamarr Houston and Jared Allen in free agency, a big help to the defensive line. But by the end of last season -- with injuries to blame -- no defensive line was in worse shape than Chicago's, and the team still needs to stack some more sandbags up front or the Bears are going to be in trouble against any team with a decent run game. Donald is the most disruptive interior defender in this draft, and precisely with the Bears need, a play wrecker from the 3-technique role.
PLAYER CARD
15
Odell Beckham Jr.
Pittsburgh Steelers (8-8)
COLLEGE: LSU
Class: Jr
HT: 5-11
WT: 198
POS: WR
Analysis: Markus Wheaton, whom the Steelers got in last year's draft, can develop into a good player, but he's also the No. 2 wide receiver on this team as of today, and that can change if the Steelers grab Beckham. An explosive mover, Beckham can run by defenders, but also does a great job of creating space underneath. He's also the kind of player who becomes extremely dangerous and hard to cover when Ben Roethlisberger extends plays.
PLAYER CARD
16
Zack Martin
Dallas Cowboys (8-8)
COLLEGE: Notre Dame
HT: 6-4
WT: 308
POS: OT
Analysis: Dallas fans might find this quizzical given the need along the defensive line, but consider what's available: Donald is out of the picture, I think Dallas should see this slot as too rich for a player like Anthony Barr, who is a questionable system fit anyway, and the top safety is also off the board. Martin makes sense as a player who can shore up the right tackle position, which is a problem area. I also think this is a place where the Cowboys could look to move if they don't see the value here at those bigger need positions. It's what they did last year.
PLAYER CARD
17
Calvin Pryor
Baltimore Ravens (8-8)
COLLEGE: Louisville
Class: Jr
HT: 5-11
WT: 207
POS: S
Analysis: The Ravens have a pretty sizable void at safety, with no real starter-worthy player on the roster to pair with Matt Elam. Pryor represents a good solution, a player who can cover, and will come downhill and deliver hits with authority. Pryor isn't quite the ace in coverage that Clinton-Dix is, and if Clinton-Dix is available at this slot he could become the pick, but Pryor is hardly a consolation prize given his range and playmaking abilities, something the Ravens' defense needs.
PLAYER CARD
18
Brandin Cooks
New York Jets (8-8)
COLLEGE: Oregon State
Class: Jr
HT: 5-9
WT: 189
POS: WR
Analysis: No player was a tougher cover in college football last year, and we learned why once we got to see Cooks run at the combine. This is a player who is every bit the athlete last year's top wide receiver selection Tavon Austin is, and Cooks is also a little bit bigger. He's just the type of player the Jets need, a tough cover both underneath and running intermediate routes. The Jets need more than one pass-catcher out of this draft, but I also said that last year and they went defense with the first two picks.
PLAYER CARD
19
C.J. Mosley
Miami Dolphins (8-8)
COLLEGE: Alabama
Class: Sr
HT: 6-2
WT: 234
POS: ILB
Analysis: I don't consider this Miami's No. 1 need, but this is when "best player on the board" really comes into play. Mosley could be passed up until this range due to some injury concerns and positional value, but this is a big-time playmaker who can lead your defense and is worthy of going higher. The thing people need to remember about Mosley is he doesn't need to come off the field. The guy is a gifted player in coverage from his position.
PLAYER CARD
20
Derek Carr
Arizona Cardinals (10-6)
COLLEGE: Fresno State
HT: 6-2
WT: 214
POS: QB
Analysis: My friend Todd McShay will cringe when he sees this -- he's been consistent in saying Carr is not worthy of being drafted remotely this high -- but this is a mock, not a player ranking. The Cardinals have a pretty good roster in place, will be getting an extra first-round pick when you consider that last year's first-rounder, Jonathan Cooper, will return from injury in 2014, and they don't have a worthy No. 2 behind Carson Palmer, who will turn 35 during the 2014 season. Carr is my fourth-ranked QB, and I can certainly see some other options here, including wide receiver, or right tackle.
PLAYER CARD
21
Ryan Shazier
Green Bay Packers (8-7-1)
COLLEGE: Ohio State
HT: 6-1
WT: 237
POS: OLB
Analysis: While Mosley would also be a good fit here, with him off the board the Packers nab a similarly special linebacker in Shazier. This is a player with great instincts and range, an ability to attack the backfield and chase down plays across the field. He's also going to cover underneath and stay on the field. Watch Ohio State tape over the past two seasons, and you'll see Shazier consistently playing faster than everyone else. He'll line up next to A.J. Hawk and solidify a need spot for the Packers.
PLAYER CARD
22
Kelvin Benjamin
Philadelphia Eagles (10-6)
COLLEGE: Florida State
Class: Soph
HT: 6-5
WT: 240
POS: WR
Analysis: I consider Benjamin a bit of a project, with his route running and consistency in need of development, but I can think of worse ideas than giving Chip Kelly the developmental keys to a player who stands a full 6-5 and at 240 pounds runs like guys 30 pounds lighter. The Eagles have Jeremy Maclin coming off a serious knee injury, and Riley Cooper remains, but minus DeSean Jackson they could use another matchup threat, and where it was speed for Jackson, it's size for Benjamin. Sometimes, there's not much you can do with him.
PLAYER CARD
23
Marqise Lee
Kansas City Chiefs (11-5)
COLLEGE: USC
Class: Jr
HT: 5-11
WT: 192
POS: WR
Analysis: The Chiefs are a team I could see moving down, particularly since wide receiver is a need area. The Chiefs don't have their second-round pick due to the Alex Smith trade, and it's a deep draft at receiver. However, in this case I think they'd be walking away with a pretty nice fit in Lee, a player with the route-running and run-after-catch ability that could make him a great fit in this offense.
PLAYER CARD
24
Bradley Roby
Cincinnati Bengals (11-5)
COLLEGE: Ohio State
Class: Jr
HT: 5-11
WT: 194
POS: CB
Analysis: We mentioned this on the First Draft podcast this week in breaking down the Bengals, but they're quietly pretty old in the secondary, with Terence Newman and Adam Jones both north of 30, and Leon Hall also close and coming off another injury-riddled season. In other words, corner could be a problem in a hurry in Cincy, and certainly the decision-makers there can see it and may not be content with just one cornerback from this draft. Roby can be a special player, with elite speed and change-of-direction quickness, he'll just need to clean up his fundamentals and avoid playing too physical.
PLAYER CARD
25
Anthony Barr
San Diego Chargers (9-7)
COLLEGE: UCLA
Class: Sr
HT: 6-4
WT: 255
POS: OLB
Analysis: I also see cornerback as a possibility here, but the Chargers need another pass-rusher and Barr fits the scheme and offers the upside of a guy I once saw as a likely top-10 pick. Barr has dropped on my board and others because his senior tape didn't live up to the production, and I think he can often be too tentative in his reads and reactions. But we're still talking about a player who has shown the ability to disrupt in the passing game and his workouts didn't really disappoint, either. He's a good value here.
PLAYER CARD
26
Kyle Fuller
Cleveland Browns (4-12)
COLLEGE: Virginia Tech
Class: Sr
HT: 5-11
WT: 190
POS: CB
Analysis: Depending on which game you're watching, you could walk away thinking Fuller is as good as or better than any cornerback in this draft, and the Browns can take him expecting a player who will contribute early at a position where they lack enough depth behind Joe Haden. Fuller has good size at 6 feet tall, and not only plays fast, but gets off the ground well to challenge high-point throws against taller pass-catchers. If Cleveland goes another route at No. 4, this is obviously a slot where the Browns could go with a QB.
PLAYER CARD
27
Cody Latimer
New Orleans Saints (11-5)
COLLEGE: Indiana
Class: Jr
HT: 6-2
WT: 215
POS: WR
Analysis: No player has risen faster on my board recently, and I'm not alone. I'll give McShay credit -- he was raving about Latimer after he got to take a closer look at Indiana tape. Latimer was a player I saw as a likelier second-day pick based on my earlier work on him, but he's always looked good in the size/speed equation, it's just that a closer look shows you a player who was extremely reliable as a pass-catcher. The Saints need depth at wide receiver after losing one of Drew Brees' favorite targets in Lance Moore, not to mention the departure of Darren Sproles in a pass-catching sense.
PLAYER CARD
28
Morgan Moses
Carolina Panthers (12-4)
COLLEGE: Virginia
HT: 6-6
WT: 314
POS: OT
Analysis: The additions of Jerricho Cotchery and Jason Avant aren't tantamount to a "fix" at wide receiver, and I could certainly see the Panthers going that direction. But if there's a run at the position as you have here, this may be a better place to take a possible starter at tackle, which is a pretty big deal considering they need a pair of them. Cam Newton's ability to run shouldn't be confused with a lack of need to even create a decent pocket, and I think that's a question mark. Carolina could also look at cornerback here, so the Panthers may just look for the best player available among a few positions where the need is pressing.
PLAYER CARD
29
Ra'Shede Hageman
New England Patriots (12-4)
COLLEGE: Minnesota
HT: 6-5
WT: 310
POS: DT
Analysis: The Patriots know their personnel and developmental plans better than I do, I have no doubts, but we both know the age of their best interior linemen is a concern, with Vince Wilfork 32 years old and Tommy Kelly 33. Hageman is the kind of player this coaching staff could turn into something special, and working in rotation this season he could provide some immediate impact as well. He has surprising athletic ability for a player of his size, with great initial quickness which can jolt blockers and disrupt plays from the inside. He also has a long frame and an impressive vertical and will disrupt passing lanes.
PLAYER CARD
30
Jordan Matthews
San Francisco 49ers (12-4)
COLLEGE: Vanderbilt
HT: 6-3
WT: 212
POS: WR
Analysis: The return of Anquan Boldin isn't enough for me to consider the wide receiver depth chart in San Francisco complete, and an experienced, projectable, reliable pass-catcher with underrated explosiveness both before and after the catch could provide some early impact for the 49ers. Matthews had been maligned for his lack of top-end speed, but his senior tape combined with a 4.46 40-time in Indy tells a different story, and it's hard to get past the fact that everyone knew Vandy wanted to get Matthews the ball, and nobody could keep him covered -- even in the SEC.
PLAYER CARD
31
Jason Verrett
Denver Broncos (13-3)
COLLEGE: TCU
Class: Sr
HT: 5-9
WT: 189
POS: CB
Analysis: Even with the addition of Aqib Talib, Denver needs to add depth in the secondary, and while you like to simply take the best player on the board with a sense of a reasonably early role when looking in Round 1, I think this fits both a need and Denver's timeline. The Broncos know the Peyton Manning window, and targeting clear needs should be a little more of a conversation. Verrett is a capable corner who can make it look easy in coverage, and will also look for the big hit. He gives Denver needed depth. (You can't have enough corners, especially when you expect to play with the lead often.)
PLAYER CARD
32
Stephon Tuitt
Seattle Seahawks (13-3)
COLLEGE: Notre Dame
HT: 6-5
WT: 304
POS: DE
Analysis: Seattle lost a little depth on the defensive interior, and I like the idea of Tuitt landing here not just because I think Pete Carroll and staff can maximize what I consider a significant level of talent, but because this is a team that can maximize players that aren't exactly a round peg in the traditional round holes we associate with classic schemes. Tuitt's the kind of defensive lineman who could work inside, or be a big body at defensive end, drive a tackle backward with a bull rush or help to create a formidable run-stopping front that frees up the linebackers to make plays. Seattle tends to surprise me, but this pick makes sense.
PLAYER CARD
