3 Friday w/analysis

All plays are 2 units. Yanks are 2.02 units to win 2
HOME TEAM IN CAPS

Cincinnati +107 over CHICAGO
Jeff Samardzija has thrown close to 400 innings over the past two years and the heavy workload may be taking a toll. After a successful transition from the bullpen to the rotation in 2012, Samardzija was a profit potential target entering 2013. He delivered in the first half with a 3.34 ERA and 1.21 WHIP but then tanked down the stretch with 5.47 ERA and 1.51 WHIP after July. He’s pitched well in three starts this year but there are some signs of danger. A fortunate trifecta of a 27% hit rate, 90% strand rate and 6% hr/f has aided Samardzija in posting a 1.29 ERA through three starts. His swinging strike rate of just 7% is way below his rate over the previous two years. We also see a 30% line-drive rate over his first three starts and these are all warning signs that Samardzija is not at the top of his game despite the surface stats. Also note that despite the very good year in 2013, Samardzija went 3-5 at Wrigley in 17 games started with a 4.76 ERA and a .274 BAA. With one loss at Wrigley already this year, Samardzija now has three wins in his last 18 starts at home.

Alfredo Simon has posted back to back pure quality starts as the replacement for Mat Latos in the Reds rotation. Over 15 innings, Simon has walked just two batters while whiffing 10. Pitching out of the pen the past two seasons, Simon has posted two straight years of sub-3 ERA with an xERA of 3.75. We’re not expecting miracles out of Simon but he’s into his third straight year of solid skills that include a 51% groundball rate with outstanding control. He’ll now face a Cubbies team that is batting a combined .230, which is the second worst make in the NL.

DETROIT -1 +133 over Anaheim
Jered Weaver is 0-2 in three starts with a 5.79 ERA. We have been warning you about his declining skills and very average stuff for two years but somehow Weaver was able to outpitch his talents. Weaver’s lack of skill is finally catching up to him and we’re not done pouncing on these opportunities. In his three starts, Weaver has faced the Mets, Astros and Mariners. Houston has a team batting average of .188, the worst in the majors. The Mets team batting average is a NL worst .229 and the Mariner team BA is also .230, which is the fifth worst in the majors. Weaver was tagged for 12 runs (four runs or more in each game) in 18.2 frames against that weak hitting trio and now takes a huge step up in class when facing the Tigers at Comerica. Last season Weaver once again bested xERA by wide margin, as hit% and hr/f continued to cooperate. His fastball velocity is in its fourth straight year of decline and his other skills remain pedestrian. Weaver is a prime fade target because his ability to outpitch his skills has come to an end. Additionally, the Angels bullpen is a complete disaster, forcing the worst manager in the game to leave pitchers in there longer than they should be.

Over the Tigers last 105 home games, 70% of their wins have been by 2 runs or more. Expect a little extra motivation here from the Tigers in support of Drew Smyly, who makes his first start of the season after pitching out of the pen last year. Smyly is a natural starter and it looks like good things are ahead for the young lefty. He was strong in 2013 with outstanding skills across the board. He was more than a lefty-killer too. He had a great command vs. both LH and RH bats. He has two plus pitches - a cutter and slider. His cutter produced a 31% K rate and 15% swinging strike rate. Smyly's slider was even better. It resulted in a 44% K% and 19% swinging strike rate. Detroit was so rich in starting pitching that they moved Smyly to the bullpen in 2013 to get out tough lefties, and few were better in that role. He was nearly as unhittable against RH bats with 10.2 k’s per nine to go along with a 46% groundball rate. With Smyly’s skills and experience in pressure situations and learning from some of the best in the game, expect a pretty smooth transition to the rotation.

N.Y. Yankees -101 over TAMPA BAY
It seems like Hiroki Kuroda has been pitching forever. Age hasn't eroded his remarkably stable skill set. Let your eyes wander down any skills column and you'll see little variance. Sure, his K rate may be leaking slightly but his command has tightened and there are no discernable vL/vR splits. He avoids disasters as much as any pitcher in the majors and gives his team a chance to win every time he takes the hill. With him, the past is prologue, pick a start and go with it. Kuroda now faces a Rays’ team that has made C.C. Sabathia, Miguel Gonzalez, Wi-Lei Chen, Jeremy Guthrie, Jason Vargas, Mark Buehrle and Drew Hutchison all look like Sandy Koufax. Tampa’s batting numbers across the board are atrocious.

With Erik Bedard’s health history, three straight years of 120+ IP is a minor miracle. While he maintains an ability to strike batters out, control on base average and fly-ball % are all heading into dangerous territory. The end is near for Bedard, making the 2008 deal that sent him to Seattle for Adam Jones, Chris Tillman, et al look like a slam dunk for the Orioles. Bedard has lost zip off of his fastball. Back in his Baltimore days, he was routinely in the 92 mph range; now, he’s at 89 mph. His general lack of dominance can be seen in the 25%/44% dominant start/disaster start he’s posted in his last 16 starts. Bedard is only pitching because the Rays have been hit hard by the injury bug to their starting staff and they need some emergency starts. This is one of them. Don't let Bedard anywhere near your bankroll.

Gl on redlegs myself so far