Saturday: Don't Expect That Again

Three weeks into the season, finally, a huge payoff. And with 13+ units riding. 4-1 Friday, +11.41 units.

YTD: 21-17, +14.47 units


Oakland RL -102. Only 3 units, but I'll probably regret it. The Astros best pitcher, Cosart, got hammered early, leaving in the 1st. That means the Astros used 8.1 innings of relievers for this game, including dependable long reliever, Paul Clemens for 4 IPs. On Saturday, Oberholtzer is under the gun to go 5 or 6 innings or their BP will be completely depleted. But Oberholtzer's stuff is not quite as good as Cosart's. Oberholtzer might have more poise, but throws a low 90s, high 80s fastball, and commands his average off-speed pitches well. Unfortunately, the A's are killing it now, hitting much better pitchers than what the Astros have with Oberholtzer or in their BP. Kazmir was a great signing, and is the veteran ace of this staff, has been dominant so far, and is murder on LH batters. The A's bullpen is deep and very good, and the difference with the Astros BP is huge. Houston is hitting .174 over the past week and almost have no chance here. I know in baseball that betting RL and betting favorites are no way to win in the long run, but the circumstances here are just so glaring that I can see Oakland winning all these games easily- unless they get complacent.

Cinn. -136 ML. 2 units. The Cubs have, for a long while, wilted when facing tough pitching. They have 18 runs in the past week, batting .204. Some of those runs came in garbage time vs. STL. Now they face the Reds' Cingrani. Cingrani throws mostly fastballs, but has wicked, almost unbelievable movement on them. His command can be spotty, walking some, but he can be very difficult to hit and strikes out many. He's allowed only 10 hits in 3 starts this year. The Cubs are 7-40 off of him going back to last year. Edwin Jackson…. the most traded guy in the mlb, along with Bedard. Jackson has good stuff, but drives managers crazy. He can be a 1st inning adventure until he settles in, nibbles terribly with men on base, and generally relies on a fastball-slider mix with slightly reduced velocity. The Cubs made a mistake signing him. And finally the Reds are hitting. They have seen Jackson plenty and know what he can do. The Reds also have the BP edge.

Baltimore +128. ML 2 units. I have never been a Doubront fan because he also relies too much on a fastball-slider mix, with the 2 pitches being too close in velocity. Doubront, like Jackson, seems to lack that pitchability or sense of what to do in certain situations. Baltimore has faced him plenty, and 3-4 of them have lit him up. The Red Sox are still looking like a much lesser team than last year. They would have NEVER gotten swept at home, as they had by the Brewers, in past years. The Orioles send Bud Norris, who pitched very well his last outing. Norris has very good stuff, and has to be estatic escaping Houston and playing for a baseball savvy team like Baltimore. He doesn't want to disappoint. The Orioles are also hitting much better than earlier in the season. The Orioles seem to enjoy the short parks of the AL East and have the power to exploit them.

SF -1 (-102) One unit. This play is largely based on the fact that so many of the Giants have killed Stults in the past. In fact the Giants lead the NL in runs vs. LHP, and were tough last year vs. LHP. SD has not been very successful vs. Hudson, and even though they are playing better, the Padres are last in the NL in runs and OBP vs. RHP.

Arizona +181 ML. One unit. This is a value line with Dan Haren going for the Dodgers. I don't care what his ERA is, he's mediocre at best and the D-Backs are happy to go on the road after stinking at home. Their BP isn't very good, but the Dodgers' is only slightly better. The Dodgers haven't really hit very well this year, have injuries, guys returning from injuries, and have controversy to boot. Bolsinger, the Arizona starter, is a minor league journeyman who knows how to pitch. The Dodgers haven't seen him and often guys like Bolsinger can have 4-5 decent innings before their opponents start to hit well. Arizona isn't as bad as their record, but their starting pitching has been dreadful, and has put them in a hole.

Cinn and Oakland really stand out. Reds have owned the Cubs for a few years now.

Great job ofred. Up 14.47 units on the early season is very impressive. Good luck today.

I like Cinci, but I'll take them -1 to get some better value. Thee were only 2 players from the Cubs who gave Cingrani many problems, one of them being Soriano who is obviously a Yankee. Add to the fact that the Reds have dominated the Cubs in the present and the Cubs lack of offense, makes this a play for me. Jackson has pitched fairly well against Cinci, it's a small sample size, but I mean compared to his overall numbers. His lack of support should hurt him in this game though.

Also, just my opinion, and my personal play, SF ML seems the better play than SF-1. If I remember correctly, I hear on the radio during Thursdays game against the Dodgers that SF lead the league in 1 run games. Would anyone care to research that? I suppose it never hurts to push though, as it is better than losing.

GL on your plays today!

PizzyBaby14 said:

I like Cinci, but I'll take them -1 to get some better value. Thee were only 2 players from the Cubs who gave Cingrani many problems, one of them being Soriano who is obviously a Yankee. Add to the fact that the Reds have dominated the Cubs in the present and the Cubs lack of offense, makes this a play for me. Jackson has pitched fairly well against Cinci, it's a small sample size, but I mean compared to his overall numbers. His lack of support should hurt him in this game though.

Also, just my opinion, and my personal play, SF ML seems the better play than SF-1. If I remember correctly, I hear on the radio during Thursdays game against the Dodgers that SF lead the league in 1 run games. Would anyone care to research that? I suppose it never hurts to push though, as it is better than losing.

GL on your plays today!

Click to expand...

Playing the -1 just reduces the juice of a ML(sometimes a lot) with the possibility that you'll get a tie. With a Giants- SD game, with 2 good BPs, a one run game is more likely than with an AL team.

Final Play:

Milwaukee -1/2 (First 5) One unit. Wandy has given up 6 homers in his first 16 IPs, and there is general concern in Pittsburgh that he has lost his effectiveness. Wandy's fastball velocity is down and he is struggling to command his other pitches. I have always liked him as an inning eater who could pitch out of jams and induce weak contact. Now it's not happening. Garza, the Brewers starter, has looked good and has regained some velocity. He is a passionate competitor(sometimes too much) that will pitch well to prove he was worth the money Milwaukee paid. He also has a strong hitting attack behind him- but unfortunately, not a strong bullpen. The Brewers have cooled a bit, but might hit Wandy as they hit junkballer Morton last night.

That Cinci line has jumped quite a bit. -150 now. Good grab at 36.

Complete disaster. Maybe it's all luck- Friday's winnings and today's losings. May post sunday AM.