[h=1]How top WR prospects stack up[/h][h=3]Metrics provide extra insight into Sammy Watkins, Mike Evans and others[/h]By KC Joyner | ESPN Insider
With the NFL coming off of a season that saw more pass attempts per game than any campaign in league history, it is clear pro football will continue its trajectory of becoming more aerial-attack oriented.
It takes talented pass-catchers to make this happen, so let's take a closer look at what the metrics say about the upper-tier wide receivers in this year's draft -- a class that is considered to have star power at the top and depth throughout.
Each of the top eight prospects (wideouts from BCS conferences who were listed with first- or second-round grades according to Scouts Inc.) was ranked in the following categories: age (as of the 2014 draft), height, weight, arm length, hand size, 40-yard dash time, overall yards per attempt, vertical yards per attempt, stretch vertical yards per attempt, targets per game, overall success rate (completion percentage with penalty plays included as completions), success rate at the vertical and stretch vertical levels, and yards per attempt when facing a cornerback or safety in direct coverage.
(Note: Vertical passes are aerials that travel 11 or more yards downfield; stretch verticals are thrown 20 or more yards.)
Each player's metrics are based on a tape review of a minimum of nine games against BCS- or bowl-caliber competition.
The player's rankings were then tabulated on a 1-8 scale, with the best score getting a rating of 8. Each player's overall total can be found under the raw points listing.
Since some categories deserve more weight than others, these rankings also had the addition of a modified point structure that added a 20 percent weight to targets per game; a 30 percent weight to YPA, VYPA, SVYPA and the success rate at each of these depth levels; and a 50 percent weight to the 40-yard dash time and YPA versus cornerbacks or safeties.
Each player also has a modified point listing for productivity, which includes his rankings in YPA, VYPA, SVYPA and the success rates at these levels, and for attributes, which includes the rankings for 40-yard dash, height, weight, arm length, hand size and birth date.
Now that the prelims are out of the way, let's take a look at how the rankings turned out.
<OFFER></OFFER>
[h=3]1. Sammy Watkins, Clemson[/h]
Birth date: June 14, 1993 (20 years old)
Height/weight: 6-0¾, 211 pounds
Arm length: 32 inches
Hand size: 9.5 inches
40-yard dash time: 4.43 seconds
YPA: 12.8
VYPA: 28.3
SVYPA: 36.1
YPA vs. CB or S: 25.0
Targets per game: 10.7
Success rate: 79.7 percent
Vertical success rate: 78.6 percent
Stretch vertical success rate: 81.3 percent
Raw points: 94 (ranked first)
Modified points: 116.5 (first)
Productivity points: 61.1 (first)
Attributes points: 35 (tied for third)
Watkins' YPA metrics are beyond phenomenal. His 25.0 YPA when facing a cornerback or safety was more than double five of the other players on this list and was 10.5 yards ahead of the second-place finisher (Mike Evans). Some of that has to do with Clemson's system, as Watkins caught a lot of screen passes that didn't fall under this category, but Watkins also was significantly ahead of Tigers teammate Martavis Bryant's 13.4 VYPA against cornerbacks or safeties, so it isn't all Chad Morris' play calling. Watkins added incredibly high success rates (all of which led the group) to the mix as well. His 35 attributes points ranked as tied for third and show that his physical traits come close to matching the productivity.
[h=3]2. Mike Evans, Texas A&M[/h]
Birth date: Aug. 21, 1993 (20 years old)
Height/weight: 6-4¾, 231
Arm length: 35⅛
Hand size: 9.5
40-yard dash time: 4.53
YPA: 14.2
VYPA: 18.0
SVYPA: 22.8
YPA vs. CB or S: 14.5
Targets per game: 8.2
Success rate: 70.3
Vertical success rate: 60.5
Stretch vertical success rate: 55.6
Raw points: 86 (second)
Modified points: 102.9 (second)
Productivity points: 48.1 (third)
Attributes points: 39.5 (first)
At about the midway point of last season, there was a strong case to be made that Evans was the best player on the Aggies, even over quarterback Johnny Manziel. He topped this group in YPA and finished second in VYPA and SVYPA. Evans also placed second in height, weight and age and had the largest hand size, all of which combined to give him the most attributes points. Another item of note is Evans racked up a 17.6 YPA on scramble plays, a metric that wasn't included in the analysis but one which indicates he can be a tremendously valuable safety valve when his quarterback is trying to keep a play alive (he had plenty of practice at this with Manziel playing QB).
[h=3]3. Brandin Cooks, Oregon State[/h]
Birth date: Sept. 25, 1993 (20 years old)
Height/weight: 5-10, 189
Arm length: 30⅝
Hand size: 9.5
40-yard dash time: 4.33
YPA: 10.1
VYPA: 15.5
SVYPA: 19.2
YPA vs. CB or S: 11.2
Targets per game: 13.3
Success rate: 73.7
Vertical success rate: 62.5
Stretch vertical success rate: 62.1
Raw points: 74 (third)
Modified points: 92.9 (third)
Productivity points: 46.8 (third)
Attributes points: 29 (fifth)
Cooks' 10.1 overall YPA did not fare well (ranked sixth) but it wasn't a matter of his not hitting the big plays, as he placed third in VYPA and SVYPA. Cooks ranked second in each of the success level metrics, and his 13.3 targets per game volume was nearly three targets per game more than the second-place finisher (Watkins at 10.7). Cooks had the best 40 time and is the youngest player in the group, but his height, weight and arm length all placed last and put a ceiling on his attribute points total.
[h=3]4. Kelvin Benjamin, Florida State[/h]
Birth date: Feb. 5, 1991 (23 years old)
Height/weight: 6-5, 240
Arm length: 34¾
Hand size: 10¼
40-yard dash time: 4.61
YPA: 12.3
VYPA: 15.4
SVYPA: 18.6
YPA vs. CB or S: 14.0
Targets per game: 6.5
Success rate: 65.3
Vertical success rate: 59.5
Stretch vertical success rate: 57.7
Raw points: 67 (fourth)
Modified points: 79 (fourth)
Productivity points: 33.8 (fourth)
Attributes points: 35 (tied for third)
Benjamin fared well in a number of metrics, including YPA (third), stretch vertical success rate (third) and YPA when facing a cornerback or safety (third), but came up in short in a wide variety of others. He finished last in overall success rate and targets per game, but both of those could be chalked up to Florida State saving him for crunch-time usage (such as when he caught the winning touchdown pass in the BCS National Championship Game). Placing next to last in speed and last in age did hinder his attributes points total to some extent, but those deficiencies were offset by his ranking first in height and weight, tied for first in hand size and second in arm length.
[h=3]5. Jarvis Landry, LSU[/h]Birth date: Nov. 28, 1992 (21 years old)
Height/weight: 5-11½, 205
Arm length: 31⅝
Hand size: 10¼
40-yard dash time: 4.77
YPA: 11.3
VYPA: 13.0
SVYPA: 14.6
YPA vs. CB or S: 10.6
Targets per game: 8.7
Success rate: 72.4
Vertical success rate: 60.0
Stretch vertical success rate: 45.0
Raw points: 58 (fifth)
Modified points: 69 (fifth)
Productivity points: 32.5 (fifth)
Attributes points: 24.5 (seventh)
The highlights on Landry's list include overall YPA (ranked fourth), overall success rate (third), targets per game (fourth) and hand size (tied for first). He did have his share of metric lowlights, including VYPA (sixth), height (sixth) and 40 time (last), but in most seasons Landry's productivity levels would be considered highlights. For what he projects to be at the NFL level, a possession receiver, his numbers stack up pretty well.
[h=3]6. Cody Latimer, Indiana[/h]
Birth date: Oct. 10, 1992 (21 years old)
Height/weight: 6-2½, 215
Arm length: 32.5
Hand size: 9.5
40-yard dash time: 4.39
YPA: 9.7
VYPA: 12.2
SVYPA: 14.0
YPA vs. CB or S: 10.1
Targets per game: 10.1
Success rate: 67.0
Vertical success rate: 45.5
Stretch vertical success rate: 36.8
Raw points: 53 (sixth)
Modified points: 62.5 (sixth)
Productivity points: 14.3 (eighth)
Attributes points: 36.5 (second)
This may be a case where a player's totals don't quite reflect his actual skill level. Latimer ranked second in attributes points, so the physical talent looks to be there, but his metrics didn't hold up their end of the bargain. Latimer ranked last in overall YPA and vertical success rate and placed next to last in VYPA, overall success rate and stretch vertical success rate. It might be tempting to assign a good portion of the metric blame to Indiana's passing offense, but the Hoosiers ranked second in the Big Ten in adjusted total QBR (a metric that adjusts total QBR by strength of opponent) and in YPA, so that avenue looks to be closed.
[h=3]7. Odell Beckham Jr., LSU[/h]
Birth date: Nov. 5, 1992 (21 years old)
Height/weight: 5-11¼, 198
Arm length: 32⅝
Hand size: 10
40-yard dash time: 4.43
YPA: 10.8
VYPA: 11.9
SVYPA: 10.8
YPA vs. CB or S: 10.0
Targets per game: 7.1
Success rate: 67.6
Vertical success rate: 61.5
Stretch vertical success rate: 50.0
Raw points: 50 (seventh)
Modified points: 59.9 (seventh)
Productivity points: 26 (sixth)
Attributes points: 28.5 (sixth)
Beckham has his share of upper-tier physical attributes, including speed (fourth in 40-yard dash time), arm length (third) and hand size (third). His metrics didn't hold up quite as well, as he placed last in VYPA and next to last in SVYPA, targets per game and YPA versus cornerbacks or safeties. In most years numbers of this caliber would rank near the top of the list, so Beckham is an apt illustration of just how deep this draft really is at the wide receiver position. He is still an impressive prospect.
8. Marqise Lee, USC
Birth date: Nov. 25, 1991 (22 years old)
Height/weight: 5-11, 192
Arm length: 31⅝
Hand size: 9⅜
40-yard dash time: 4.52
YPA: 9.9
VYPA: 15.4
SVYPA: 9.9
YPA vs. CB or S: 7.9
Targets per game: 7.1
Success rate: 70.3
Vertical success rate: 50.0
Stretch vertical success rate: 21.4
Raw points: 36 (eighth)
Modified points: 43.9 (eighth)
Productivity points: 20.8 (seventh)
Attributes points: 18 (eighth)
Lee was the Biletnikoff Award winner for 2012 but followed that campaign with an injury-plagued season that fell short of his peak performance level. Injuries aside, Lee's YPA and VYPA totals this past year were fairly close to his 2012 figures (10.2 YPA, 17.4 VYPA), so these metrics aren't too far off his true mark. Lee is the second-oldest and second-lightest wideout in this analysis and has low attributes rankings in hand size (eighth) and speed (fifth in 40-yard dash). This may make him the riskiest candidate of this group, but he's still got all of the makings of a high-impact WR1 at the NFL level.
With the NFL coming off of a season that saw more pass attempts per game than any campaign in league history, it is clear pro football will continue its trajectory of becoming more aerial-attack oriented.
It takes talented pass-catchers to make this happen, so let's take a closer look at what the metrics say about the upper-tier wide receivers in this year's draft -- a class that is considered to have star power at the top and depth throughout.
Each of the top eight prospects (wideouts from BCS conferences who were listed with first- or second-round grades according to Scouts Inc.) was ranked in the following categories: age (as of the 2014 draft), height, weight, arm length, hand size, 40-yard dash time, overall yards per attempt, vertical yards per attempt, stretch vertical yards per attempt, targets per game, overall success rate (completion percentage with penalty plays included as completions), success rate at the vertical and stretch vertical levels, and yards per attempt when facing a cornerback or safety in direct coverage.
(Note: Vertical passes are aerials that travel 11 or more yards downfield; stretch verticals are thrown 20 or more yards.)
Each player's metrics are based on a tape review of a minimum of nine games against BCS- or bowl-caliber competition.
The player's rankings were then tabulated on a 1-8 scale, with the best score getting a rating of 8. Each player's overall total can be found under the raw points listing.
Since some categories deserve more weight than others, these rankings also had the addition of a modified point structure that added a 20 percent weight to targets per game; a 30 percent weight to YPA, VYPA, SVYPA and the success rate at each of these depth levels; and a 50 percent weight to the 40-yard dash time and YPA versus cornerbacks or safeties.
Each player also has a modified point listing for productivity, which includes his rankings in YPA, VYPA, SVYPA and the success rates at these levels, and for attributes, which includes the rankings for 40-yard dash, height, weight, arm length, hand size and birth date.
Now that the prelims are out of the way, let's take a look at how the rankings turned out.
<OFFER></OFFER>
[h=3]1. Sammy Watkins, Clemson[/h]
Birth date: June 14, 1993 (20 years old)
Height/weight: 6-0¾, 211 pounds
Arm length: 32 inches
Hand size: 9.5 inches
40-yard dash time: 4.43 seconds
YPA: 12.8
VYPA: 28.3
SVYPA: 36.1
YPA vs. CB or S: 25.0
Targets per game: 10.7
Success rate: 79.7 percent
Vertical success rate: 78.6 percent
Stretch vertical success rate: 81.3 percent
Raw points: 94 (ranked first)
Modified points: 116.5 (first)
Productivity points: 61.1 (first)
Attributes points: 35 (tied for third)
Watkins' YPA metrics are beyond phenomenal. His 25.0 YPA when facing a cornerback or safety was more than double five of the other players on this list and was 10.5 yards ahead of the second-place finisher (Mike Evans). Some of that has to do with Clemson's system, as Watkins caught a lot of screen passes that didn't fall under this category, but Watkins also was significantly ahead of Tigers teammate Martavis Bryant's 13.4 VYPA against cornerbacks or safeties, so it isn't all Chad Morris' play calling. Watkins added incredibly high success rates (all of which led the group) to the mix as well. His 35 attributes points ranked as tied for third and show that his physical traits come close to matching the productivity.
[h=3]2. Mike Evans, Texas A&M[/h]
Birth date: Aug. 21, 1993 (20 years old)
Height/weight: 6-4¾, 231
Arm length: 35⅛
Hand size: 9.5
40-yard dash time: 4.53
YPA: 14.2
VYPA: 18.0
SVYPA: 22.8
YPA vs. CB or S: 14.5
Targets per game: 8.2
Success rate: 70.3
Vertical success rate: 60.5
Stretch vertical success rate: 55.6
Raw points: 86 (second)
Modified points: 102.9 (second)
Productivity points: 48.1 (third)
Attributes points: 39.5 (first)
At about the midway point of last season, there was a strong case to be made that Evans was the best player on the Aggies, even over quarterback Johnny Manziel. He topped this group in YPA and finished second in VYPA and SVYPA. Evans also placed second in height, weight and age and had the largest hand size, all of which combined to give him the most attributes points. Another item of note is Evans racked up a 17.6 YPA on scramble plays, a metric that wasn't included in the analysis but one which indicates he can be a tremendously valuable safety valve when his quarterback is trying to keep a play alive (he had plenty of practice at this with Manziel playing QB).
[h=3]3. Brandin Cooks, Oregon State[/h]
Birth date: Sept. 25, 1993 (20 years old)
Height/weight: 5-10, 189
Arm length: 30⅝
Hand size: 9.5
40-yard dash time: 4.33
YPA: 10.1
VYPA: 15.5
SVYPA: 19.2
YPA vs. CB or S: 11.2
Targets per game: 13.3
Success rate: 73.7
Vertical success rate: 62.5
Stretch vertical success rate: 62.1
Raw points: 74 (third)
Modified points: 92.9 (third)
Productivity points: 46.8 (third)
Attributes points: 29 (fifth)
Cooks' 10.1 overall YPA did not fare well (ranked sixth) but it wasn't a matter of his not hitting the big plays, as he placed third in VYPA and SVYPA. Cooks ranked second in each of the success level metrics, and his 13.3 targets per game volume was nearly three targets per game more than the second-place finisher (Watkins at 10.7). Cooks had the best 40 time and is the youngest player in the group, but his height, weight and arm length all placed last and put a ceiling on his attribute points total.
[h=3]4. Kelvin Benjamin, Florida State[/h]
Birth date: Feb. 5, 1991 (23 years old)
Height/weight: 6-5, 240
Arm length: 34¾
Hand size: 10¼
40-yard dash time: 4.61
YPA: 12.3
VYPA: 15.4
SVYPA: 18.6
YPA vs. CB or S: 14.0
Targets per game: 6.5
Success rate: 65.3
Vertical success rate: 59.5
Stretch vertical success rate: 57.7
Raw points: 67 (fourth)
Modified points: 79 (fourth)
Productivity points: 33.8 (fourth)
Attributes points: 35 (tied for third)
Benjamin fared well in a number of metrics, including YPA (third), stretch vertical success rate (third) and YPA when facing a cornerback or safety (third), but came up in short in a wide variety of others. He finished last in overall success rate and targets per game, but both of those could be chalked up to Florida State saving him for crunch-time usage (such as when he caught the winning touchdown pass in the BCS National Championship Game). Placing next to last in speed and last in age did hinder his attributes points total to some extent, but those deficiencies were offset by his ranking first in height and weight, tied for first in hand size and second in arm length.
[h=3]5. Jarvis Landry, LSU[/h]Birth date: Nov. 28, 1992 (21 years old)
Height/weight: 5-11½, 205
Arm length: 31⅝
Hand size: 10¼
40-yard dash time: 4.77
YPA: 11.3
VYPA: 13.0
SVYPA: 14.6
YPA vs. CB or S: 10.6
Targets per game: 8.7
Success rate: 72.4
Vertical success rate: 60.0
Stretch vertical success rate: 45.0
Raw points: 58 (fifth)
Modified points: 69 (fifth)
Productivity points: 32.5 (fifth)
Attributes points: 24.5 (seventh)
The highlights on Landry's list include overall YPA (ranked fourth), overall success rate (third), targets per game (fourth) and hand size (tied for first). He did have his share of metric lowlights, including VYPA (sixth), height (sixth) and 40 time (last), but in most seasons Landry's productivity levels would be considered highlights. For what he projects to be at the NFL level, a possession receiver, his numbers stack up pretty well.
[h=3]6. Cody Latimer, Indiana[/h]
Birth date: Oct. 10, 1992 (21 years old)
Height/weight: 6-2½, 215
Arm length: 32.5
Hand size: 9.5
40-yard dash time: 4.39
YPA: 9.7
VYPA: 12.2
SVYPA: 14.0
YPA vs. CB or S: 10.1
Targets per game: 10.1
Success rate: 67.0
Vertical success rate: 45.5
Stretch vertical success rate: 36.8
Raw points: 53 (sixth)
Modified points: 62.5 (sixth)
Productivity points: 14.3 (eighth)
Attributes points: 36.5 (second)
This may be a case where a player's totals don't quite reflect his actual skill level. Latimer ranked second in attributes points, so the physical talent looks to be there, but his metrics didn't hold up their end of the bargain. Latimer ranked last in overall YPA and vertical success rate and placed next to last in VYPA, overall success rate and stretch vertical success rate. It might be tempting to assign a good portion of the metric blame to Indiana's passing offense, but the Hoosiers ranked second in the Big Ten in adjusted total QBR (a metric that adjusts total QBR by strength of opponent) and in YPA, so that avenue looks to be closed.
[h=3]7. Odell Beckham Jr., LSU[/h]
Birth date: Nov. 5, 1992 (21 years old)
Height/weight: 5-11¼, 198
Arm length: 32⅝
Hand size: 10
40-yard dash time: 4.43
YPA: 10.8
VYPA: 11.9
SVYPA: 10.8
YPA vs. CB or S: 10.0
Targets per game: 7.1
Success rate: 67.6
Vertical success rate: 61.5
Stretch vertical success rate: 50.0
Raw points: 50 (seventh)
Modified points: 59.9 (seventh)
Productivity points: 26 (sixth)
Attributes points: 28.5 (sixth)
Beckham has his share of upper-tier physical attributes, including speed (fourth in 40-yard dash time), arm length (third) and hand size (third). His metrics didn't hold up quite as well, as he placed last in VYPA and next to last in SVYPA, targets per game and YPA versus cornerbacks or safeties. In most years numbers of this caliber would rank near the top of the list, so Beckham is an apt illustration of just how deep this draft really is at the wide receiver position. He is still an impressive prospect.
8. Marqise Lee, USC
Birth date: Nov. 25, 1991 (22 years old)
Height/weight: 5-11, 192
Arm length: 31⅝
Hand size: 9⅜
40-yard dash time: 4.52
YPA: 9.9
VYPA: 15.4
SVYPA: 9.9
YPA vs. CB or S: 7.9
Targets per game: 7.1
Success rate: 70.3
Vertical success rate: 50.0
Stretch vertical success rate: 21.4
Raw points: 36 (eighth)
Modified points: 43.9 (eighth)
Productivity points: 20.8 (seventh)
Attributes points: 18 (eighth)
Lee was the Biletnikoff Award winner for 2012 but followed that campaign with an injury-plagued season that fell short of his peak performance level. Injuries aside, Lee's YPA and VYPA totals this past year were fairly close to his 2012 figures (10.2 YPA, 17.4 VYPA), so these metrics aren't too far off his true mark. Lee is the second-oldest and second-lightest wideout in this analysis and has low attributes rankings in hand size (eighth) and speed (fifth in 40-yard dash). This may make him the riskiest candidate of this group, but he's still got all of the makings of a high-impact WR1 at the NFL level.
