| Range | W | L | P | +/- (Units) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yesterday | 3 | 0 | 0.00 | +9.92 |
| Last 30 Days | 30 | 33 | 0.00 | +8.16 |
| Season to Date | 31 | 33 | 0.00 | +10.16 |
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All plays are 2 units and listed pitchers must go
HOME TEAM IN CAPS
San Francisco -½ +103 over COLORADO (1st 5 innings)
Ho, hum. Last season was just another Just another 200-IP, outstanding skills year for Madison Bumgarner. Bumgarner’s strikeout rate continues to improve, though perhaps at the expense of a bit of control. Exciting dominant start/disaster start trend shouts consistency. If you’re concerned about his 1.79 WHIP that he has posted after his four starts, don’t be. An early look at his skills confirms that there is no reason to worry, as Bumgarner has struck out 26 batters in 21 innings (11K/9) 11.0 with a 45% groundball rate and a solid xERA of 3.51. A crazy and extremely unlucky 46% hit rate has caused Bumgarner’s WHIP struggles.
Yesterday we mentioned that Ryan Vogelsong isn’t likely to get past three innings and right on cue, he was knocked out in the second inning. Well, a similar fate is likely awaiting southpaw Franklin Morales. First, the Giants have scored the most runs in the majors this season (37) against lefties. Morales’ struggles pitching at Coors Field is surely not unique, as the ballpark tendencies show it is the most hitter friendly in the league by far (+36% runs scored). In his second stint with the Rockies, Morales' only start at home this season resulted in a pure disaster against the White Sox in a game the Rockies lost 15-3. His other two starts this season occurred in Miami and in San Diego and he was blasted in Miami. His lone quality start occurred in San Diego but that park could make Bob Barker look good. In his career versus the Giants, he is 0-3 with a 6.57 ERA (6.22 xERA) and 1.62 WHIP in 24.2 IP. Wagering against the Rockies at home is risky but this pitching matchup hugely favors the visitor and it’s for that reason we’ll step in for the first five innings only because Bumgarner's chances for success are far greater than his mound opponent.
CLEVELAND +100 over Kansas City (1st 5 innings)
Both these teams have nine wins but when we look at the Royals victories we see that seven of them have occurred against the White Sox (2), the Astros (3) and the Twins (2). The Royals were also swept by Minnesota at Target Field earlier. Mike Moustakas is hitting .133. Billy Butler is hitting .200. Salvador Perez is batting .227 and Jarrod Dyson is hitting .111. The Royals are getting backed today because the pitching matchup on paper looks to be in their favor with the ever consistent James Shields facing a rather unknown Danny Salazar. Shields’ has posted a 1.31 ERA over his last three starts while Salazar has posted a 7.71 ERA over that same span. What ERA doesn’t reveal is what is under the hood of those numbers. Shields’ xERA, particularly in the second half last season indicates that there was some skills slippage. Expect his ERA to rise in 2014. It looks like the big groundball% gain in 2012 was an aberration. He also gave up a lot more line drives than usual and that has continued this season, where Shields’ batted ball profile of 42%/27%/31% groundball/line-drive/fly-ball rates are right around league average. Don’t get us wrong, Shields’ would be welcome on any pitching staff in the majors but he’s the second best starter in this game and the Royals are struggling miserably at the plate.
The Indians are struggling too but they’re at home and they’ve won two straight including the opener of this series last night. Danny Salazar went 2-3 with a 3.12 ERA in just 52 innings for Cleveland a year ago. Salazar has blazing, wicked stuff. He averages (that's averages) 96 mph on a fastball with sinister movement and he mixes in a nasty splitter. Salazar works up in the zone a lot so hitters will occasionally run into a long one and he's had issues lasting deep into games but his skills are the real deal. Make no mistake, Salazar owns some of the best raw stuff in the game. He has a dominant four-seam fastball, changeup, slider, and splitter. He needs to dial back his velocity at times to induce more groundballs but you can speculate on his elite skills and raw stuff because they are good enough to win more games than any starter on this staff. You may be enticed into wagering on Shields’ ERA and pedigree in this one but we’re giving you the alternative option and suggesting that Salazar should not be a dog to the Royals at home.
Texas +144 over OAKLAND (1st 5 innings)
Due to all of the pitching injuries suffered by the Rangers, Nick Martinez made the starting rotation out of spring training. He pitched very well last year in Double-A with a outstanding command and a WHIP of 0.562 but it was only in 32 IP. That’s the issue here: Martinez is making a big jump to the majors as an injury fill-in. When Darvish, Harrison and Lewis return, he is likely to be sent back down. In the long run he shows promise as a starter with good command of three pitches leading to excellent control and few home runs. That bodes well at this park. Furthermore, pitchers with profiles like Martinez often have success in their first go around in the majors because these hitters are completely unfamiliar with him. Note that in the minors last year, Martinez had a BAA of just .109 in five starts and in his lone start this season in Tampa, he went six full and allowed just three runs with a 50% groundball rate and 11% line-drive rate. Dude could certainly go five strong here and we can’t say the same about Tommy Milone.
As none of his pitches top 90 mph, Milone relies on location and pitch mix. His ERA last year indicates he took a step back, though his numbers barely moved and 2013 ERA matched 2012 xERA. Lots can go wrong with all those fly-balls and line-drives. Without much upside, you can continue to expect replacement-level performance from this below average starter. Additionally, Milone was absolutely abysmal in three starts versus Texas last season, two of which resulted in pure disasters. In those three starts, he went 1-2 with an 8.36 ERA (7.72 xERA) and 1.79 WHIP in 14 IP. As a favorite in this price range, Milone is one to avoid at all costs and in terms of value, this might be the best on today’s board.
